Friday, April 26, 2013

Russian Navy port call Bandar Abbas, Iran - Photos

Left: RFS Admiral Panteleyev (BPK 548) Udaloy I class (Project 1155) destroyer 

Left: RFS Peresvet (077) Ropucha II class (Project 775M) landing ship
Right: RFS Admiral Nevelskoy (055) Ropucha I class (Project 775) landing ship

RFS Peresvet (077)

RFS Admiral Nevelskoy (055)

RFS Admiral Panteleyev (BPK 548)



Anonymous said...

These Russian warships are going to join other ones in the Mediterranean Sea in May 2013 and they will form a permanent naval task force, which will include at the begining, 2 large destroyers, a frigate, 3 landing warships and 4 auxilliary vessels.

It is interesting how long they will stay and wait at Bandar Abbas, because their presence in the Mediterranean Sea will be closely related to developments in Syria.
Decision about creation of that task force was apparently made by the Russian Security Council and inspired by the new Defense Minister Gen. S. Shoigu, who declared that the present number of ships in that task force, is just a begining.

Two years ago, few could imagine the presence of Russian warships in Iran, because it was assumed that the cancelation of the S-300's delivery had frozen Iran's relations with Russia for longer period of time. But from the recent visits, clear conclussion can be drawn, that there are military contacts fostered by the Security Councils of both countries and that they have a contingency planning.

During previous visit of Russian destroyer, a special program for active rest was designed for Russian crew by Iranian and Russian representatives.


Anonymous said...

They just look as good as Jamaran !!!!

Anonymous said...

This is for all the kids who have been watching too much press TV Enjoy the opinion of your best friends the Russians about the heap of junks :

Anonymous said...

Yes! Exactly. Nonetheless they kick your bottom as well as those of your owners.

Anonymous said...

Thanks! It shows the reality of the state of the armed forces of the Islamic dictatorship and particularly shows what a bunch of liars this regime consists off.

Anonymous said...

Haha I can see I touched a nerve! Is this the best you can do ?

Anonymous said...

You are welcome.

mat said...

The world's Zionist warmonger of the U.S. will now have to face or deal with the opposite side of those nuclear-armed states of Russia, China, North Korea and possibly Pakistan. Or Perhaps, the great nation of IRAN too will be added up to the list if the nation with which is under severe pressures of the West allies, and even though not by its own intention, is forced to do so and without any option, will have to produce, acquire or obtain ones from its neighbouring country.

Anonymous said...

Dream on hezbro :o)

Anonymous said...

Russia has been implementing new modernization's program of their navy, where over 80 new larger warships will be commisioned, before the 2020.
That number of warships will include over 25 new submarines, of which up to 6 ones will be depoloyed to the Russian navy, based at the Black Sea.


Anonymous said...

Welcome to the Russians. Their military is still very well maintained and the ships look superb. It is good that Russians are coordinating their regional strategy with Iran and China. The Zionist scum must be really concerned as they are not barking lately and their "red lines" turn more yellow by the day.

Anonymous said...

doormat, are you really so ignorant as to not understand that Russia is not a friend to Iran and damn sure won't spill a drop of blood in defense of the lousy theocracy?

Anonymous said...

Very good point !!!


Anonymous said...

The Russians are increasingly assertive in the region now and consider Iran a key asset. The Russians have been very impressed by Iranian COIN tactics in Syria and have increased their own military and naval presence in the region. This is the reason that the US and its stooges started the lies about Syria using "chemical weapons" on their alCIAda thugs who are running like dogs with their tails behind their legs from Syrian miltary that even according to "western intelligence' is winning both of the battlefield as well as hearts and minds in the region. US is now in a bind along with the yellow belly Zionist scum.

Assad’s forces defeat rebels at key strategic hub near Damascus

NICOSIA — The regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad has continued
to score impressive victories over FSA rebels and foreign Jihadis.

Opposition sources said the Syrian Army, backed by aircraft and low flying gunships, was capturing rebel strongholds around Damascus. On April 24, Assad forces drove out the rebels from Otaiba, described as a strategic hub for rebel units. The Syrians have been gleefully showing off large amounts of captured western anti-tank and heavy weapons.

Assad regime forces have reportedly routed rebels from the key Damascus suburb of Altaiba.

Assad regime forces have also routed rebels in a battle for the key Damascus suburb of Otaiba by executing a surprise pincer. The retreating rebels have blamed Iranian officers, Russians and Hezbollah for this bold plan.

“This is a huge defeat for the rebels because Otaiba was where all the
weapons sent from Jordan were arriving,” an opposition source said.

The capture of Otaiba ended nearly 40 days of battle during the biggest
offensive by the Assad regime in nearly a year. The opposition acknowledged rebel defeats throughout the Damascus area as well as along the border with Jordan and Lebanon. Rebel losses run into hundreds of dazzled fighters either dead or captured.

The sources said the Syrian Army victory at Otaiba would lead to the
defeat of the rebels throughout the area. They said the rebels were
struggling to maintain their positions amid low morale and a shortage of weapons and fighters as other rebel units refused to support al-Nusra or even switched alliances to the government side.

“If Otaiba falls, the whole of Eastern Ghouta [around Damascus] will
fall,” a message to rebel units said. “please come and help or we are finished.”

The opposition reported a well coordinated Syrian offensive on the Latakia province, described as the heart of the Assad regime and its Alevi and Christian supporters. The coastal province was said to contain a large presence of Iranian and Russian military personnel.

B.M.A said...

Thanks sir for your indepth well researched piece! .your factual analysis makes everyones day!.-

Anonymous said...

Wait until 6-12 months after the so called election (Selection) and if your beloved mullah doesn't suddenly decide to drink the poison chalice, (and call it a victory just like they did after 8 years of deliberate destruction of the country) then the Americans will force feed it to him.

Anonymous said...

The constant persistence of Iran's declarations of scientific and military achievements to be exaggerated and bluff and etc by certain western press and sources, seems more a self assuring "pill" of necessity. Trivialising and ridiculing all what is Iranian and even going as far as changing history in Wikipedia is really acts of desperation.

Had it all been really a bluff, the "west" would have long been all over Iran, dividing the resources like vultures (Lybia is an example)

Iran is doing what is good for it and it has its interests in sight that count "long term" . Iranians in Iran and outside know it and that is what counts.(mind you, not everyone is Iranian ! who can read and write Persian , they are there to give an impression which is not actually existent !!!!!! either due to their personal complexes or it is simply their job, so please do NOT react to their nonsense on any forums. Simply stop reading it as soon as its nature is clear by its first words, like me ;))

Azari by fortune and Iranian by Grace of God
Darius London

Anonymous said...

Not a very good hasbara rant today. US/Zionists are eternal losers dude, get a clue. Even Russia is praising Hezbollah and pledging more support.

Anonymous said...

Send us a link (Source) about the praise and support of the Russians for Hezbollah.

Anonymous said...

Learn to read Lebanese and Russian newspapers kid.

Anonymous said...

The Russian navy has never been effective in its history.
The British,US and Japanese navies traditionally are the
best trained and equipped in the world.

Anonymous said...
1 day ago –
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov on Friday commended Hezbollah's “credibility.”

Russian Deputy FM Arrives in Beirut Thursday to Meet Senior Officials and praised Hezbullah's credibility as the Lebanese resistance group's decision to fight openly alongside the Syrian military.

Bogdanov also met with Hezbollah MPs where he said he respected the role and views of Hezbollah which made many sacrifices for Lebanon.

Experts see Russia as a growing major power which can present itself as a moderate alternative to the historically biased Foreign policy of the United States:

Anonymous said...

Praising is only done in his deluded mind.

Anonymous said...

Meanwhile read and believe the propaganda nonsense spun by regime spin masters.

Anonymous said...

@ Anon 4:39------ the only links to support that crap come from iranian propaganda outlet controlled by the regime.

Anonymous said...

You must live in cave to deny FACTS. Why not learn to google and see what reality is? No wonder you ranting clowns have been predicting the end of Iran for the last 34 years. LOL.

Anonymous said...

You are hilarious, you clown. Since when is IRIB radio and press TV a reliable source.

Anonymous said...

And where do you take that from exactly ? they haven't even had the same amount of operational history for you to support that thesis, so your assertions are de-facto biased and wrong ones, and only seem to be directed at depreciating anything Russian, since you obviously hate them (and the Jamaran comparison was just a funny joke, considering the degree of modernization in modern Russian warships acknowledged and widely documented by western sources.

In turn, history, specially in WWII, shows that Russian armed forces have been able to outperform much better armed foes while being outnumbered and under-equipped themselves (Battle of Kursk, rings a bell ? or the pace of their military advance from East to West, taking Berlin way before the allies, while starting out in ruins since the battle of Stalingrad, not to mention their Japanese campaign which forced the US to rely on two atomic bombs to avoid a Pax-Sovietica there), so I really don't know why I should doubt the effectiveness of their navy if it were ever called upon during that time or later on.

As for the Japanese, apart from the element of surprise from which they took maximum benefit in Pearl Harbor, the battle of Midway was witness to a blatant ineptitude to overcome more equal odds against their enemy... most of their major surface combatants including several aircraft carriers were destroyed during that battle (losses from which they would never recover during the rest of the war), while they had many tactical advantages to defend themselves and attack in a better fashion against their then still weakened american foe.

So, could you please provide us with a documented piece of history that shows such terrible failures of the Russian navies in comparison to their other counterparts you make a quote of, to make them deserve such a harsh judgment of yours ?

Thank you.

TLAM_Strike said...

"...WWII, shows that Russian armed forces have been able to outperform much better armed foes while being outnumbered and under-equipped themselves... Battle of Kursk..."

The Soviets outnumbered? They were outnumbered at Kursk? At Kursk they had over twice the men and tanks, and many times the number of artillery. It was common Soviet practice to simply throw as many men and machines at the enemy until they overwhelmed them. At Kursk the soviets lost nearly a million men, about four times what the Germans lost.

As for the Soviet Navy, I'll put it in simple statistics, post WWII they lost eight submarines to operational accidents, 5 of these submarines were nuclear powered, plus one additional submarine was a nuclear armed diesel sub (the last one lost was in 2000). The United States Navy post WWII lost half of that (the last one happened in 1968).

Anonymous said...

True, but one has to consider things beyond the propaganda headlines, and observe that the Iranian arms industry has benefited a lot from Chinese and Russian/Belarussian input over the last decade or so. Their multistage, solid-fueled Sejil-2 missile is one example of it. It has been admitted by Uzi Rubin himself (once head of Israel's ABM program) that this latest design has no equivalents in the world, and will pose a new challenge to ABM defense if ever mass-produced.
Iranians don't even use Shahab-1 & 2s, they are actually phasing out their supplies with the 300km-range, solid-fueled Fateh-110, which enjoys pin-point accuracy against target with its terminal optical guidance it inherited from Chinese help.
One has to remember Iran's arms industry started during times of war and embargo, and really started to get off the ground in the mid-90s: it is young.
The RAAD air defense system, again an obvious rip-off of Russian Buk-M2s, is another proof of their success. One has to wonder : should they spend billions and waste decades to build everything from the ground up just to get praise from foreign media, or should the save both money and time studying every piece of foreign tech they can get on the black market ? isn't that exactly what the Japanese and Chinese did in the 60-70s ? this is what Iran's R&D is doing now, and that is why for now we only see new designs in its ballistic arsenal, since it received the bulk of the funding and minds, and the regime made its advancement a top priority since day one, and now it is starting to bear fruit.
An iranian version of the Chinese C-802 missile almost sunk the INS Hanit in the 2003 Lebannon War, from which they bought 60 samples in the early 2000s and it was enough for them to fully produce hundreds of their own version.
Same goes for their Merkava tanks that got their armor penetrated by Iranian TOW and RPG-29 copies along with Russian Kornets (which Iran also copies now, and call it "Dehlavieh" missile system). I don't need to prove it, the Winograd report is there. The same will happen to air-defense in less that 5 years since the regime has shifted its priority to it now, and has come up with all kinds of custom-made version of FM-80s and american HAWK they seem to have upgraded close to the latest XXI standard according to american observers as well.
Now as far as the Jamaran goes, nothing truly impressive but one has to note the evolution in terms of air-search radar between the original model and the 2nd one released to port a few weeks ago, progress is obvious from the old 70s style dish and the AESA one that is fitted to the Velayat now, and resembles no other system previously in Iran's possession, just like what is happening with the Sejil-2. Now of course we have yet to see the actual defectiveness of this radar and any forms of credible CIWS systems on ANY Iranian surface ship, but one thing at a time, they're (unfortunalty) a lot less stupid and incompetent than you guys think.
The once-stalled Zulfiqar project, they pretended they would unveil a prototype for almost 10 years without ever being up to their own claims. But they recently showed undeniable footage of it rolling and firing its main gun. Again, the tank ressembled no other tank in Iran's inventory, and instead seemed like a synthesis of multiple sources of inspiration going from the M-60 and T-72. So they are taking their head out of the water.
Recently they unveiled a helmet-mounted targeting system coupled with a FLIR screen in flying a prototype for all to see, and no one denied it this time, and did not even exist nor was present on the original 70s version the Iranians had in their possession.
Things change, slowly, but surely. You just have to filter out the usual embarrassing bullshit the IRI media and leaders love to add to the mix to show how marvelously great their leadership has done to the country, which is pathetic.

Anonymous said...

"It was common Soviet practice to simply throw as many men and machines at the enemy until they overwhelmed them. At Kursk the soviets lost nearly a million men, about four times what the Germans lost."

1-The Germans lost half a million men and the soviet lost a little more than 800,000, do the math. Now, care to explain how the former makes 1/4 of the latter ? (apart from the English wiki page which states some 250,000 dead gloally, all other sources I browsed show double the losses for the Germans, some other talk about a 3:5 loss ratio, french wiki included, which is definitely not a example of sympathy towards the USSR's record. Go figure.

2-The Soviet were still under-equipped technologically in that phase of the war, their military infrastructure was barely recovering from the total ruin of the preceding defeat and catastrophic losses they sustained during German advances until the decisive Stalingrad victory saluted worldwide and which had the effect of shattering the Blitzkrieg invincibility myth once and for all.(unless you start to contest that as well and talk about how the winter and human wave attacks alone proved critical to their success and that they have no merit at all in all classical fashion of Russian-bashing crap etc...).

Two thirds of the best German troops and equipment were massed at the eastern front after that defeat until the end of the war, and the soviets still managed to reach and take Berlin before the allies, and right after that in 45, made rapid advances on the Japanese front and were close to taking a critical hold on the country (beating the Japanese at a 1/8 ratio in terms of losses in one key battle at Manchukuo, vs 1/3 for the US at Iwo Jima while outnumbering them 4 to 1, since such figures seem so important to you), which ultimately made the US consider a nuclear option to avoid such an outcome. All this thanks to blind, disorganized, brute-style mass assaults, done by an army of savage Orcs. Wow, i'm learning things here fast.

"As for the Soviet Navy, I'll put it in simple statistics, post WWII they lost eight submarines to operational accidents, 5 of these submarines were nuclear powered, plus one additional submarine was a nuclear armed diesel sub (the last one lost was in 2000). The United States Navy post WWII lost half of that (the last one happened in 1968)."

Very nice, but may I ask what it has got to do with crew's training or the Russian navy's operational history that would point to so much lag behind their other counterparts, specially the Japanese ? The USSR was renowned for making sub commanders push the limit of the industry's latest experimental subs without caring so much about security concerns, which cost them more than the US in that regard. It doesn't tell anything about how the two navies perform in actual battle. The 2000 incident for its part, was the direct result of the dire economic situation of Russia at the time and the subsequent decay of its assets, subs included. Again, nothing to do with their ability to conduct war, I don't see the rationale here.

Anonymous said...

Lollipop boy, the source was western media and Russian. As an academic I am appalled at your pathetic level of ignorance and inability to even conduct rudimentary research on the internet. Even the book "google for idiots" is too advanced for you obviously. No wonder the Zionists are so despised, if this is their best hasbara effort Iran in on a winner?

Anonymous said...

You an Academic? My a....
I can see by the use of your language, which kind of Academic you are. It must have been the same university as all the other "bache basijis". (Danesgha Emam Sadegh? LOL) You ignorant "basijis" have always had inferiority complex towards people with "proper and real degrees".
That is why you HAVE to mention that you are an "Academic" (LOL)
For your Information the "Zionist" are producing first class research and the majority of Nobel Prize winners are of Jewish background. (How many fanatic muslims laureate can you mention? Use your "google for idiots" book to research that fact.

Anonymous said...

Annon. 28 April 1.00 pm
Great analysis. Free from any bias. I agree with you about every single thing that you mention. Not only it is rational, but also highly correct and efficient to copy the proven (albeit old) technologies in order to reach self sufficiency (to a certain extent) and to have a credible defense deterrent. Although I am no supporter of the current regime in Iran and responsible for some of the older posts here against them, there is no denying the facts that you mention in your well based analysis. The problem is when less informed commentators here try to inflate the IRI military capabilities to something it is not and at the same time insist that in the event of a (hopefully not) military conflict with the Americans, the IRI will simply defeat their Navy in the Persian Gulf and shoot every single of their fighter jets in the Iranian air space. Now that is plain stupidity if they think that the Americans do not have proper intel. about the Iranian capabilities and have not taken some counter measures of their own. (Latest report about installing a Laser gun on Ponce to be deployed next year, with the IRI RGC's speed boats swarm tactic in mind)
There is no denial in the fact that Iran has come a long way in producing some weaponry (that they could hardly get their hands on during the war with Iraq) but it is also extremely stupid to think that the country can withstand the full might of an American Arial assault against Iranian nuclear facilities (No one is expecting any boots on the ground, so the talk of huge American casualties is just nonsense).
I am the first one to admit that the Americans and Nato have to pay a much higher price than they did when attacking Iraq, but it would be extremely dangerous to think that they are not willing to pay that price and that they are just bluffing.
The last thing to say is (and I am not a Monarchist) and lacking in your comment in my opinion is that the Shah laid the very first foundations of the infra structure of the current Iranian military industrial complex.
It was a pleasure reading your comment.

Anonymous said...

The Russian Navy can't afford even to run one aircraft carrier.The Chinese only have one old Russian carrier.The US and British navies have proven to be the most effective in recent history.A fact that no hypocritical West residing cappuccino drinking IRI Groupie could possibly deny :o)

Anonymous said...

Anon 12:37 PM....Yes the Shah did indeed lay the first foundations of the arms industry in Iran.But don't try educating those people who deny that very important fact.Good luck!

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Anonymous said...

To April 30, 2013 at 12:37 PM,

thanks a lot for your comment, I take the whole piece you wrote as a really flattering compliment for the personal efforts I regularly do on this great blog for which I thank Nader once more. And just like you, I have been the author of many similar posts both defending the genuine capabilities of Iran and trying to cool down its detractors who often amalgamate the Iranian people and its regime altogether, while keeping in mind and reminding potential readers of how dire is the situation in which the current regime has put the people in, in almost every aspect, would it be the clampdown on internal on liberty and public dissent on every level of society, widespread grow of fanaticism, corruption, wasting of resources, falling levels of public education and healthcare, widening of the rich-poor gap, and so many other aspects I don't have time to elaborate on here but that educated people like yourself know for sure.

On the Shah, well, if I may, I partially share your statement, but let me explain myself on why I have a rather bitter vision of his record in that field.

The only major manufacturing infrastructure that the current regime inherited was the Bell Helicopter maintenance facility (mostly operated by US personnel and off-limits to Iranian personnel, GCC style.), that now serves as the hub for Iran's HESA company which specializes in spare parts production and recent Iranian-derived version of Cobras and Hueys which on the mid-term are supposed to help finalize the long overdue National Helicopter project. Aside from that, Iran didn't get anything from project Flower for example, while Israel got the bulk of its technological fallout. Worse, it is a known fact that the Shah played a great part in saving Northrop Grumman at a time of trouble both by becoming its only export partner abroad for the F-14, AND participating heavily in its funding, while at the end of the day sealed no agreements even in the forms of a MoU, for any kind of concrete technology transfer from that bird, which is poor considering the investment. In fact, the only thing the IRI can be proud of in comparison of the Shah is that they take a significant share of self-reliance capability for local production on every piece of hardware the Chinese and Russians are willing to let go for 10-times the price from their second-hand weapon systems.

Finally, again I join you 100% on the possible outcome of a full aerial american assault, which on the long run would ruin Iran, economically, industrially, and on the human level as well. The only option Iranian armed forces would have in such a scenario would be to pound every american base or surface vessel in missile range with all they have, which is a known capability of Iran acknowledged by the latest declassified Pentagon report signed by Leon Panetta last year.

This in turn, would enrage US armed forces to destroy them even further, and fan the flames of anti-Iran hate on the home front. The price of such a total air war would be enormous for the USN and USAF, and ground forces nearby Iran, but just as you said, short of any other alternative, if both the military and the political class in Washington ever deem bombing Iran it the only option to derail it from its current path, they will make it happen. America will win any attrition war with Iran, there is no doubt about it, and thinking otherwise would make anyone delusional. And in the process, millions of Iranians will die, their country will go back five generations in time, and this is being optimistic...

For Iran to pose a credible and constant counterweight to an all-out american assault would need to wait another decade so that they finally get somewhere in the integrated air defense on a national scale, which is a huge task that lie ahead of their planners and engineers, the planned Bavar-373 (Iran's future S-300) being nothing more than PR claims up until now... and in 10-years time, with a regime such as Iran's, anything could happen, war or not...


Anonymous said...

"hypocritical West residing cappuccino drinking IRI Groupie"...

"you talkin' to me ??? are you talking to me ???" hahaha nice try, but I didn't even mention Iran once ;-) I was just trying to remind clear-headed people on some facts about Russian operational history in general, which others here seemed to distort with ease.

I saw the aircraft carrier thing coming anyway, and the answer is certainly not the kind of which you're so proudly stating with your smiling face, dude. Russia during its soviet times never had an expansionist marine policy in the league of the US to begin with, while they had the technology and even half-finished their first nuclear-powered, blue water capability carrier in the Nimitz class, called the Lenin, a year before the breakup of the USSR and its subsequent cancellation. Their only real base beyond the Soviet bloc were in Syria and Cuba, none of them justifying such an investment. They had half the Eurasian continent at their disposal, coasts included, so why they hell would they kill their economy with a 11-carrier strong navy like the US does anyway ?

Projecting power was not as much a requirement as the US did, which had of all its interest overseas, thousands of miles away from its home territory, hence the bulk of their funding and effort, it's only logical !

In turn, Russia outgunned the US in everything anti-surface related, again only logical, they worked on the counter-measure rationale. They pioneered today's best technologies in anti-shipping warfare, and this is exactly what they needed against their american cold war foe. That is also why they still champion development of hyper-sonic anti-ship missiles today, and that the Pentagon admits having no credible countermeasures against.

As you said, "they can't afford", you are entirely correct. While they master the very same technology at the very same level, having the actual assets is a mere question of economy, not military-industrial ability. An example of that is France, their Charles De Gaulle super-carrier is on par with anything the USN does or make, but they had to scrap for now their project of a twin vessel in the same class. They can make and maintain one, but they don't have the economic base to support say two or more of vessels of this kind. Does this make them lesser men that the US, or their navy less able than the USN, just because they have less surface ships in their inventory ? certainly not, it is not even related. Same goes for Russia. I have one gun, but my neighbor has twelve. Does it mean I can't handle my one gun as well as he handle every single one of his ? Again, what kind of rationale is that, I seriously have pain to understand !

In fact, there isn't a single piece of military technology the US has and that the USSR/Russia doesn't, if you look at it closely. They are even catching up fast to their post-USSR economic debacle with the T-50, while the american F-35 is close to a catastrophic failure scenario. Not to mention the S-400 and planned S-500 for 5-10 years to come. Like it or hate it, they are here, and they're planning to stay in the warfare race in every field just like the old days, now that things are getting less and less warm between them and the US, and that they are rising again as an assertive military superpower. You should get over it instead of burying your head in the sand, bashing them and disqualifying them the Reagan way.

Again, history never provided the Russian navy to perform better or worse than its western counterpart in the last century. The fact that the latter did perform well on some occasions in WWII forward, doesn't make them the best, they simply make them the only ones having been in a position to show their prowess so far. Period. The rest is the fruitof the minds of some CocaCola drinking, Call-of-Duty playing, West residing, star-spangled banner worshiping fan-boys, who love to gratuitously bash their country's main military competitors on every occasion they get :D

Anonymous said...

Dear Abtin,
Thank you again for a very well composed, factual post.
It is again a pleasure to read a comment that is not biased or colored by pure nationalism / ideology / religious belief.
Now back to the part about the foundation of the Iranian military industrial complex.
I have no intention here to praise the Shah for his 37 years in power as I believe that Iran is in this mess right now because of his wrong policies.
You are right when you mention the lack of an "arms deal" that would allow technological transfer as it is the norm, and it was even back then. (I refer to the delivery of Phantom F4's to Iran and Taiwan in the mid 1960's and the difference in the deal that the Iranians got. Taiwan got to assemble the Phantom F4's in the country. (Turkey got the same deal with their F15's)
I think the failure to get a deal like that was partly because of the corruption among the Iranian negotiators (Bribes to Iranian Air force generals, with Khatam, and the others are accusations that have been suggested by scholars) and the lack of well trained technicians (It was certainly the case with the transfer of F14's to Iran, and Esfahan in the 1970's) as the Shah was also in a hurry to order too many sophisticated weapon systems that the Iranians were not (properly) trained for to use and maintain. How could a technological transfer take place when Iran did not have the trained manpower and facilities and specially when the Shah was overbuying arms especially after the surge in Oil price after 1973
(I refer to a passage in Assadollah Alam's diary where he mentions about the fury of the Shah when the Iranian navy failed to use their missiles to hit their targets in the Persian Gulf when the Shah was present)
The other part was also the unwillingness of the Americans to provide Iran and the Shah (as they actually did not trust his motives for a such a large army and obviously to maintain the strategical balance of power in the region)to put a stop to the technology transfer to Iran.
There was also the question of all the American technicians in Iran and to protect their pay and perks by not allowing the Iranians to take charge of the maintenance of the hardware they had bought.
I believe that the current Iranian weapon systems are a tribute to the hard work and talent of the Iranian Engineers and Technicians. They certainly have come a long way since the end of the war with Iraq. Anybody denying that would just be unfair but as I have mentioned it would be highly irresponsible to think that this progress has scared the Americans to take on Iran if diplomacy doesn't work.
To support my point I refer to the current North Korean crisis. (It would interesting to read your opinion about it) Will the west allow an Iranian Nuclear weapon (If we accept that the Iranians are actually after the bomb, Personally I believe that they are after a nuclear weapon's capability to be able to put a device together if they really feel that they have to)
My guess is that they will not allow this, even if they have to pay a heavy price (including a staggering hike in the price of the oil and the risk for Iranian subversive actions in the region) I think they believe that the price that they have to pay to live with a nuclear Iran is much higher, hence the very real risk for an Arial assault on the Iranian nuclear facilities. The west in my opinion can not afford a second North Korea especially in the ME.
You also mention in you post that:
"The only option Iranian armed forces would have in such a scenario would be to pound every american base or surface vessel in missile range with all they have, which is a known capability of Iran acknowledged by the latest declassified Pentagon report signed by Leon Panetta last year."
Do you really think that the Iranians have the necessary means to undertake such a massive operation and if so, Don't you think that the Americans have already planned counter measures against such an attack that they know can be a real possibility?

Anonymous said...

Well, first of all thank you for own insight on why the Shah couldn't get what others got from the Americans during arms deal... some of the points you made were already clear in my mind but you added other nice ones I hadn't thought about myself, or rather should I say didn't constitute a direct cause for the industrial shortcomings of the Shah.
The lack of trust generated in part by the almost childish way the Shah often went on a shopping spree on the arms market without making the proper arrangements around it in order to give them sense and real usefulness in the hands of trained personnel, widespread corruption on the supply chain , etc...But to address the issue you brought up about Iran's capability to harm american interests in the region in the events of a full scale war, well, I'll sum it up this way :

1- No matter how narrow or broad the scope of american intelligence on Iranian weapon systems is, one thing is clear : they can't possibly have ample telemetry data to simulate enough of a flight profile to be able to calibrate their ABMs accordingly. They have some crude data and have probably gathered some more through various intelligence channels, but most experts I've read on the issue, tend to converge on that one thing : too many unknowns to be ideally prepared. To illustrate that, we can remind of the 1% success rate of 1st gen. patriot batteries against rudimentary but slightly modified Iraqi Scuds in '91. The US indeed but couldn't predict its behavior when modified by Iraqi engineers, even in the flawed way the latter did (the goal was to extend its speed and range by some margin, but often the missile broke up in the sky as a result or radically deviated from their planned trajectory, upsetting ABM radars and their missile trajectory algorithms).

2- In comparison, Iran's arsenal is reported, to name only assets in the IRBM class such as the Shahab-3 or the newer Sejil-2, is reported to be many folds larger and of a superior degree of modernity than Iraq in its best day, making it a very challenging element to any defense asset in the US arsenal, which on top of that remains largely untested, or only so in controlled, minimalist scenarios, and notably all lack, without exception, a swarm attack scenario involving dozen of multiple separating warheads, which draws a lot of criticism from defense circles until that very day . Add several other hundreds of latest generation SRBMs such as the Fateh-110 (with a 50m CEP, again courtesy of Chinese Dong Feng manufacturers and blacklisted by the US as a result in 2002), and you find yourself in a situation that requires several hundreds of interceptors in every single of their 30 or so sensitive sites around Iran, is not close to happening overnight.

Now Iran obviously doesn't need and cannot flatten those bases, like some IRI brainwashed fan-boys would think. I am rather talking about each base taking some critical hits and lose dozens of men without getting utterly destroyed, but if you multiply it by say, 30 bases, targeted in the opening days of a way, you'll easily find that it would most certainly constitute the biggest single loss engagement of the US armed forces since their Vietnam experience. And the USA cannot afford it just yet, not with the Iraq failure still pretty fresh in their memory, and the ongoing failure in Afghanistan, not to mention the Crisis and budget cuts.

Nonetheless, let me be clear, I agree with you on the outcome of such a direct confrontation. Despite all the losses and hits the Iranians would be able to inflict an attacking US enemy, the destruction they would very soon get in return would see to make their capacity to wage war fall drastically as the USN and USAF really start to bomb the hell out of every possible piece of military and civilian infrastructure in Iran after a few days. Anyone thinking iran can be a real match for the combined forces of US/NATO is either delusional or stupid. Once more, I have to entirely agree with you on that.


Anonymous said...

Thanks A,
I look forward to reading more of your insightful comments about the Iranian military capabilities. Good luck