Sunday, December 9, 2012

Iran's budget deficit

March through August 2012

By: Jabbar Fazeli, MD

Jumhori islami newspaper reports, in this morning's edition, that the government had a budget deficit of 173,000,000,000,000 rials for the first 5 months of the Iranian fiscal year (March-March). The projected total annual budget deficit is expected to be 540,000,000,000,000 rials.

This annual deficit (3/2012-3/2013) would equal $18 billion dollars based on free market exchange rate of ~30000 rials for the dollar, and $45 billion dollar, based on the official central bank exchange rate of ~12000 rials for the dollar.

For comparison to actual budget numbers you can visit a prior post on this blog.

Below is the unedited newspaper report:

روزنامه جمهوري اسلامي
سرويس خبر: اقتصاديt
كسري بودجه 173 هزار ميليارد ريالي دولت در 5 ماهه اول امسال

آمارهاي رسمي از كسري بودجه 173 هزار ميليارد ريالي دولت در پنج ماهه اول امسال حكايت دارد.
به گزارش خبرنگار مهر، تراز عملياتي دولت كه به نوعي نشان دهنده كسري بودجه آشكار است، به لحاظ درآمدها و اعتبارات هزينهاي به علاوه پرداختي تنخواه حقوق و مزاياي مستمري كاركنان استانها به خزانه معين استانها، داراي مانده منفي معادل 173 هزار ميليارد ريال است.
به عبارت ديگر، هزينهها حدود 9/1 برابر درامدها در پنج ماهه نخست امسال بوده كه اين مطلب نشان دهنده عدم تناسب هزينههاي جاري با درآمدهاي دولت است.
در واقع اگر 173 هزار ميليارد ريال را بر عدد 5 (آمار عملكرد پنج ماهه) تقسيم كنيم، متوسط تراز عملياتي دولت در ماه، منفي 34 هزار و 600 ميليارد ريال ميشود.
پيش از اين، غلامرضا مصباحي مقدم رئيس كميسيون برنامه و بودجه مجلس شوراي اسلامي كسري بودجه برآوردي در سال 91 را معادل 54 هزار ميليارد تومان پيشبيني كرده بود.

Photo source:


Anonymous said...

Wow what an epic failure for Ahmadinejad's administration. Accomplishments:
1. International isolation
2. Devastated economy
3. A nuclear plant that Rafsanjani started and which would have finished regardless
4. A tiny bit of uranium enrichment which is useless to Iran

What an idiot.

Anonymous said...

Anon 10:50 AM

Just replace the monkey (Ahmadinejad) with the organ grinder (Khamenei and the regime) then you become more believable.
1.Since the regime took power Iran has been in international isolation.
2.The regime devastated the economy not just their little monkey.
3.The nuclear plant was not started by Rafsanjani but the Shah in 1977.The new Islamic regime then cancelled program,saying it was against Allah.
4.I agree,it is useless to Iran and wont save the regime.
5.There is no reforming this regime!

Unknown said...

The new regime story line is that its all Ahmadinejad's fault, and Khamenei and the others had nothing to do with the economic downturn. Lets see how long this story will hold.

Anonymous said...

Who are these people who try to convince us that it is all Ahmadinejad's fault and after you vote for Rafsanjani or Mousavi all will be so heavenly?

Unknown said...

@anon 7:14
I'm assuming you intentionally mix two unrelated facts.
The truth is:

-The "regime" spin doctors are trying to absolve the "regime" from any responsibility by blaming the economic shortfalls on the lame duck president Ahmedinejad. We all know that the nuclear decisions and Iranian positions in negotiations with the west are made by Khamenei and not Ahmadinejad.

-everyone else, including the so called reformists, blame the entire regime for what Iran is going through today, regardless of whom they support in whatever fake elections.