Mahan Air Boeing 747 sustains air emergency, all passengers safe

Above: Damaged No. 3 engine of Mahan Air Boeing 747, upon safe return to Mehrabad International Airport

According to Sky News:

An Iranian plane has made an emergency landing after part of its engine fell apart two minutes after take-off.

The Boeing 747, which had 426 passengers on board, had just departed from Tehran's Mehrabad airport when "a piece of engine number three came off and hit the body of the plane".

Iranian journalists have claimed the engine part fell into an urban area, but no one on the ground is thought to have been injured.

Pilots of the Mahan Air plane decided to immediately return to the airport, and landed it safely just after 7.15am local time on Thursday morning.

According to the private airline, the aircraft had undergone all necessary safety checks and inspections prior to departure.

Affected passengers were being taken to their destination, the southern city of Bandar Abbas, on a different plane.

COMMENTARY: Aircraft was Mahan Air Boeing 747-383, reg. EP-MNE (cn 23480/641). Aircraft air emergency occurred during initial climb, returned to THR after lost part to No.3 engine. The rear, low pressure turbine, section of General Electric CF6-50E2 engine broke away and fell to the ground in the Eslamshahr country area of Tehran Province.

Fortunately there were no casualties aboard the aircraft or on the ground.

It's possible this air emergency was the result of sanctions, with passenger carrier not provided relevant service bulletin and access to replacement parts.

In May 2010, four uncontained failures of CF6-45/50 engines in the preceding two years prompted the U.S. National Transportation Safety Board to issue an "urgent" recommendation to increase inspections of the engines on U.S. aircraft. None of the four incidents of rotor disk imbalance and subsequent failure resulted in an accident, but parts of the engine did penetrate the engine housing in each case. [source: Wikipedia]

Detail of affected General Electric CF6-50E2 engine

At a field in the Eslamshahr country area of Tehran Province, a  NAJA first sergeant looks over fallen section of General Electric CF6-50E2 engine.

Iranian firemen beside collected engine parts debris from stricken Mahan Air Boeing 747-383 aircraft

Photos: Sky News

From Havana to Tehran

by Paul Iddon

Rare anti-American mural in Tehran.

We live in very interesting, perhaps historic, times. 2015, it appears, will be the year when two of Washington's longstanding sanctions regimes will gradually be discontinued. The ones leveled against Cuba and Iran.

Both sanctions regimes were introduced not longer after the respective revolutions (1959 and 1979) in each country. Since their respective introductions however the regimes in Havana and Tehran have solidified their holds on power rather than become weakened and the people they rule over disempowered from enacting any meaningful internal political change. Not wholly unlike how the crippling sanctions leveled against the Saddam Hussein regime in Iraq, between 1991 and 2003, actually helped to empower that regime and not only weakened the people over which it ruthlessly ruled, but made them highly dependent on the tyrant in Baghdad.

Despite what the Cuban and Iranian populations might think of their rulers the broad and sweeping nature of the sanctions either saw them, like Iraqis in the aforementioned period, rendered dependent on their regime or rally around it, due to that pressure emanating from the outside. Similar to how countries rally around the flag during a particular crisis or war, regardless of what they might otherwise think about their government. This was particularly evident in Iran in the early days of the Islamic Republic when its western province was invaded by Iraq. That war and the external threat Iraq posed proved to be a formative moment for the then nascent Islamic regime as patriotic Iranians sought to defend their land despite whatever other feelings they might have about who is in power in Tehran. Which historically was similar to how Soviets of all stripes fought under the tyrannical Joseph Stalin during the Second World War against invading Nazi Germany.

This also explains how, in both cases, the respective Cuban and Iranian diaspora haven't been able to enact regime change from the outside. Cuban opponents of Fidel Castro based in Florida were unable to topple his regime from there in the infamous 1961 Bay of Pigs invasion of their island nation in much the same way the Iraq-based Iranian opposition group the Peoples Mujahideen of Iran (MEK) were unable to topple the regime in Iran from the outside in a similarly botched Bay of Pigs-esque attempt in August 1988.

Today with the prospect of Washington lifting the over half-century old embargo it has been leveling against Cuba coupled with sanctions relief on Tehran could gradually open up those two societies and perhaps see to gradual political change in them in the long-run.

Some tourist agencies have urged people to book trips to Havana over the course of the last few months by implying it will soon fundamentally change and the retrograde time-warp in which Cuba has been stuck for the past half-century, as a direct result of the trade embargo, will itself be a thing of the past – hence those iconic 1950s-era cars which Havana has become famous for in recent decades may become gradually replaced by more modern automobiles and the country will lose some of the character which attracts tourists who want a different but unique travel experience. Of course such changes should be welcomed if it means that greater openness for that island-nation will lessen the poverty which permeates throughout it.

Similarly the prospect of McDonalds coming to Iran has been talked about in light of the recent nuclear agreement between the P5+1 countries and Tehran and the prospects of economic sanctions being eased and, in the long-term, possibly done away with altogether. Not unlike how the comprehensive nuclear talks between the Soviet Union and the United States in the mid to late 1980s led to the opening of a massive McDonalds in Moscow questions have been raised about the possibility of such a fast-food joint opening in Tehran. An urban center many westerners believe to be an irrevocable hotbed of anti-American and anti-western sentiment.

Interestingly Iran is already home to many western fast-food knockoffs. A fake McDonalds knockoff in Tehran recently raised the consternation of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei who is resolutely opposed to, what he sees as, demoralizing western influences in society and has accordingly vowed to prevent the spread of western cultural influences in Iran. He has even told his regimes paramilitary enforcers, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, to be on high alert against, what he calls, the “political and cultural intrusion” which he believes could prove to be more harmful to his regime than “economic and security breaches.”

Khamenei's aversion to a sudden change is not unlike how many in the west fear the potential consequences of a botched Iran deal and an overly rapid lifting of the sanctions. However whereby the bringing about of political change in Cuba and Iran is concerned western policy over the last few decades has done little to influence change in those capitals or to alleviate the suffering and repression of their respective populations. This indicates that it may well be time to change these longstanding policies which, more likely than not, have done a lot more harm than good.

Iran Announces London Oil Conference in February

Iran announced today that it will hold an oil and gas conference on 22-24 February in London to attract major international oil companies to invest in Iranian oil and gas projects post sanctions. Iran also said it will publish the terms of post-sanctions oil contracts at a conference in Tehran on 21-22 November. The new terms are said to remove obstacles for oil majors to invest in Iran.

White House: Sanctions Relief Only if Iran Complies with All Requirements of JCPOA

The White House spokesman Josh Earnest said on Thursday that Iran will only see sanctions relief if it complies with all the requirements of JCPOA, the nuclear deal with world powers.

The comments came hours after Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned that Iran would only suspend its nuclear activities if sanctions were not lifted completely. JCPOA says sanctions relief kicks in as Iran dismantles and redesigns parts of its program, and not just suspending them.

On Wednesday, Secretary of State John Kerry said Iran will be required to live up to the agreement in full before it starts benefitting from sanctions relief.

Mahan Air EP-MMR operating flights to Milan and Shanghai

Mahan Air EP-MMR on 25JUL15 at Milan–Malpensa Airport
[photo: Gustavo Petullo]

Mahan Air Airbus A340-642, reg. EP-MMR (cn 416) has recently been operating flights to Milan–Malpensa Airport (MXP) and Shanghai Pudong International Airport (PVG).

EP-MMR is one of nine Airbus aircraft recently obtained by Mahan Air with Iraqi assistance, circumventing U.S. sanctions in effect against the airline for assisting IRGC-QF in support of Lebanese Hezbollah and the Syrian Arab Republic, as well as MODAFL and IAIO. With the signing of JCPOA, U.S. sanctions against these recently obtained Mahan Air aircraft appear  effectively suspended.

Mahan Air Airbus A340-311, reg. EP-MMB (cn 056) on 17JUN15 at at Milan–Malpensa Airport (see below)

[photo: Simone Previdi]

According to AnnaAero:

Mahan Air... started twice-weekly (Wednesdays and Saturdays) flights from its Tehran Imam Khomeini (IKA) hub to Milan Malpensa (MXP) on 17 June – its 54th global destination. Although the inaugural service was operated by one of the carrier’s A340s, the service is intended to be flown by its A310 fleet. Iran Air will provide the only direct competition on the 3,711-kilometre airport pair, also flying twice-weekly on the route. The sector becomes Mahan Air’s seventh into Europe, and closely follows the start of services to Munich earlier this summer.

Attractive Mahan Air flight crew members at Milan–Malpensa Airport

[photo: AnnaAero]

Italian ministers in Tehran, eager for post-sanctions business opportunities

Italian Foreign Minister Paolo Gentiloni with Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif on 04AUG15 in Tehran

According to Reuters:

Italian Foreign Minister Paolo Gentiloni has met with Iranian officials in Tehran in the latest visit by European officials seeking closer trade ties

Italian Foreign Minister Paolo Gentiloni held talks with officials in Tehran on Tuesday, the latest in a series of European officials seeking closer trade ties with Iran after its nuclear deal with world powers.

Senior government ministers from France, Germany and Serbia have been among visitors to Iran since the July 14 accord that raised the prospect of banking and trade sanctions on Iran being lifted, perhaps around the end of this year.

Investment bank Mediobanca said in a statement that it, along with Italy's development ministry and export credit agency SACE, had signed a memorandum of understanding during the visit with Iran's economy ministry and its central bank.

The aim of the agreement was "to facilitate future economic and commercial relations between the two countries," the statement said.

COMMENTARY: During the negotiation process for JCPOA the Italians were particularly supportive of a deal, with an eye towards expanded business opportunities made possible with the lifting of sanctions.

This very obvious rush of European dignitaries to Tehran seeking closer economic ties represents an IRI foreign policy success directly attributable to JCPOA, generating a political momentum inside Iran that may not be able to be overturned during the adoption process.

Italian Minister of Economic Development Federica Guidi with Iranian Minister of Industries and Business Mohammad Reza Nematzadeh

Photos: Islamic Republic News Agency

Iran Says It can Boost Oil Output Just Days After Sanctions End

Iran’s Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh said today in an interview with state TV that Iran can boost oil production “in one week” after international sanctions are lifted. He said production could increase by 500,000 bpd within a week after sanctions and by 1 million bpd within a month following that. Zanganeh warned that OPEC’s refusal to accommodate Iran in export markets would result in lower crude prices. (IRNA/Bloomberg, 2 August)

“Our lost share of market, which was about 1 million barrel a day, will manifest itself,” Zanganeh said. Even if crude prices fall, Iran’s (oil export) revenues will stay the same because exports are due to double, he added. (Shana/Bloomberg, 2 August)

Iran produced an average of 2.85 million barrels a day in July compared with 3.6 million at the end of 2011 when oil and banking sanctions went into effect. The Iranian oil exports declined to 1.4 million bpd after sanctions compared to 2.6 million bpd in 2011.

“Some of the most effective sanctions with regard to the oil industry were those targeted aspects such as sales, volumes, shipment, insurance and the transfer of the money,” Zanganeh said. “If those issues are resolved, Iran will regain the market share that it has lost which amounts to more than one million barrels a day.” (IRNA/Press TV, 2 August)

Amid surplus crude supply, the global benchmark Brent crude fell about 50 percent last year and dropped 2.1 percent on Friday to $52.21 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

File photo: Iran’s Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh (Atta Kenare/AFP/Getty Images/Bloomberg)

European officials in Tehran, eager for post-sanctions business opportunities

 

French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius with Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif

According to the New York Times, dated 29JUL15:

The French foreign minister arrived in Tehran on Wednesday, the latest in a string of visits by officials from European countries seeking closer economic and political ties with Iran after the nuclear agreement this month.

[…]

The visit by Mr. Fabius comes as French companies such as Airbus and the carmakers Peugeot Citroën and Renault have been seeking to renew ties with local producers that were cut because of the sanctions.

[…]

Mr. Fabius’s trip follows a visit to Tehran on Tuesday by Federica Mogherini, the European Union’s foreign policy chief. Last week, the German vice chancellor, Sigmar Gabriel, who is also his country’s economy minister, arrived with a business delegation. Mr. Fabius will also have several trade-related meetings.

Meanwhile in Washington DC during congressional hearing on JCPOA, much of the talk continued to be focused on potential war with Iran, effectively surrendering considerable post-sanctions business opportunities to the Europeans and Asians. As Tim Maverick at the Wall Street Daily laments in a recent piece subtitled "No lunch for us":

Everyone knows that sanctions on Iran will be lifted eventually.

That’s why European and Asian companies are already in discussions with Iranian officials and businessmen to establish new relationships or to reignite old ones.

But American corporations are being held back by strict, decades-old restrictions on doing business with Iran. Foreign subsidiaries of U.S. companies may be allowed to invest in Iran. But, understandably, executives are wary of running afoul of the politicians.

So, while our top companies stand on the sidelines, our competitors will eat our lunch in Iran.

And it will be quite a tasty lunch, too. China is now Iran’s largest trading partner. And German exports to Iran are expected to quickly grow four-fold from 2.4 billion euros last year to 10 billion euros. Plus, Tehran already said that it will need in excess of $200 billion in investments for its oil and gas industry.

There’s a lot more than energy at play here, too. Iran is also an industrial powerhouse in waiting.

The country is the world’s biggest exporter of cement, and ranks in the world’s top 15 for both steel production and auto production. Iran is also recognized in the global medical community for its work in stem cell research and nanotechnology.

In other words, Iran isn’t a run-of-the-mill emerging market.

The country has little debt, unlike other emerging markets, and has a stock market with a market capitalization of about $110 billion. The Iranian market soared last year in anticipation of a deal, rising a record 130%!

Iran’s leadership comments on JCPOA

 

Above: nuclear negotiators Zarif and Salehi are to address parliament on 21JUL15 to brief lawmakers on JCPOA [source: IRNA]

Review of select comments made by Iran’s leadership the past two days concerning JCPOA:

"Reaching a deal is a significant step, but the text of the deal should be carefully scrutinized and the legal procedures should be taken so when the deal is ratified the other side cannot breach it." —Ali Khamenei, Supreme Leader [source: IRNA]

"Some of the members of the P5+1 are not trustworthy… I ask our dear nation to stay calm and united so we can preserve our national interests in a serene and sensible environment." —Ali Khamenei, Supreme Leader [source: IRNA]

"This deal is an unprecedented achievement in the history of international affairs as it annuls all the threatening U.N. Security Council resolutions and opens gates for cooperation with Iran even in nuclear energy.” —Hassan Rouhani, President [source: IRNA]

"The deal is a big lesson to the region that problems can be solved with negotiations and true participation of people rather than intervention, massacre and terrorism…” —Hassan Rouhani, President [source: IRNA]

“Iran’s enrichment and nuclear technology are purely for the development of the country; this enrichment and nuclear technology will not be against any country in the region or the world.” — Hassan Rouhani, President [source: Rouhani.ir]

“We are not hypocritical; if we have given a promise in the framework of…national interests, we will act according to it, provided that the other party fulfills its promises. If the other side does not fulfill its promises, Iran will act on its promises.” —Hassan Rouhani, President [source: Rouhani.ir]

“Protection of nuclear rights, removal of sanctions and constructive engagement with the world have been and will be the basis for negotiations.” —Hassan Rouhani, President [source: Rouhani.ir]

“The world will experience a new page of relations with Iran.” —Hassan Rouhani, President [source: Rouhani.ir]

“Iran’s obligations are balanced, and subject to the obligations of the other side.” —Hassan Rouhani, President [source: Rouhani.ir]

“All economic and UN Security Council sanctions will be canceled on the first day of the implementation of the agreement.” —Hassan Rouhani, President [source: Rouhani.ir]

“Our approach was [to think that] in the world today, threats of others and pressure on others is worthless; all should seek for win-win, mutual respect, common interests, and the attainment of common goals.” —Hassan Rouhani, President [source: Rouhani.ir]

“The nuclear negotiations are the first step toward achieving the [height] of constructive interaction with the world, because in the world today, progress, development, stability, and security in the region and world are not possible without cooperation and coordination.” —Hassan Rouhani, President [source: Rouhani.ir]

“The Islamic Republic of Iran will move towards constructive interaction with all countries which respect Iran and want cooperation in the framework of common interests with Iranians…” —Hassan Rouhani, President [source: Rouhani.ir]

“We want to improve our relations with countries which we have a cold relationship…because we know this cooperation is beneficial to everyone.” —Hassan Rouhani, President [source: Rouhani.ir]

“We believe there is third way, and it is the way of cooperation with the world.” —Hassan Rouhani, President [source: Rouhani.ir]

“From the beginning the government had given promises to the people, and we have always followed those promises in the framework of the national interest.” —Hassan Rouhani, President [source: Rouhani.ir]

“More than ever we need economic growth, youth employment, and the development of non-oil exports; and if this occurs, our people will experience an improvement in life and spirituality.” —Hassan Rouhani, President [source: Rouhani.ir]

“[The agreement is] more important than the [Iran-Iraq] War and the liberation of Khorramshahr” —Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, Chairman of Expediency Discernment Council [source: Alef.ir]

“[Regarding visits to military facilities] we should not be afraid of visits to some [military] centers. I congratulate the Iranian nation on this great day…” —Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, Chairman of Expediency Discernment Council [source: Alef.ir]

Ali Larijani, Speaker of Parliament said on 15JUL15 that MPs would examine the agreement in a "constructive spirit”. [source: Reuters]

IRIN Rear Admiral Ali Shamkhani, secretary of the National Security Council of Iran stated the JCPOA was now on top of the council’s agenda. [source: IRNA]

Mohammad Reza Mohseni Sani, head of parliament's security committee said members of parliament would want to examine the implications of the deal for access to a military site at Parchin, saying there appeared to have been a "compromise.” [source: Fars News Agency]

Alaeddin Boroujerdi, Chairman for the Committee for Foreign Policy and National Security of the Islamic Consultative Assembly praised the Iranian negotiating team for observing the Supreme Leader’s redlines for a nuclear deal. He further stated the JCPOA “is acceptable… because the designated redlines [set by the Supreme Leader] have been completely preserved… and that Foreign Minister Zarif will address Parliament sometime next week about the measures the Iranian negotiating team has taken under the nuclear deal. [source: IRIB}

Alireza Zakani, Member of Parliament thanked the nuclear negotiating team while emphasizing the need for Iran to continue securing its national interests.  He noted that Iran has entered “a sensitive phase”, and must prevent “discord” and “polarization” from becoming a pretext for actions contrary to Iran's interests. He added the JCPOA is a testament to Iranian resistance with respect to protecting the nuclear achievements of Iran's scientists. [source: Mashregh News]

Ahmed Tavakoli, Member of Parliament told journalists that “the overall outcome of the completed negotiations has been positive”, and commended the nuclear negotiators for their "perseverance and victory in the negotiating field". [source: Mashregh News]

Mohammad Hassan Asfari, National Security and Foreign Policy (NSFP) Parliamentary Commission member emphasized that pursuant to articles 77 and 126 of the Constitution, all agreements between Iran and other countries must be submitted to parliament, and that the final agreement must therefore be sent to parliament for approval. [source: Mashregh News]

Sayyid Hossein Naqavi, NSFP Parliamentary Commission member said that Parliament will examine the final agreement until it concludes the national interests of Iran are included in the agreement.
He further stated that up to this point, the negotiating has observed the red lines that have been put into place for negotiations with the P5+1. [source: Mashregh News]

Hojjat al Eslam Vahid Ahmadi, NSFP Parliamentary Commission member said the agreement “was a good agreement that protects Iran’s nuclear achievements,” and emphasized that Iran accepted the agreement because all of the sanctions would be removed the day the parties involved fulfilled their obligations. He added that the parliament should prioritize ensuring the agreement removes all sanctions when examining the nuclear agreement. [source: Mashregh News]

Mahan Air A346 aircraft now operating flights to Far East, in defiance of U.S. sanctions

Mahan Air A346 aircraft obtained 08MAY15 with Iraqi assistance are now operating international routes to Malaysia and Thailand, in defiance of U.S. sanctions related to the airline's past IRGC-related logistical activities in support of Syrian Arab Republic, Lebanese Hezbollah, MODAFL and ICAO.

In addition to the above mentioned Far East routes, Iran has been and is currently flying regular routes with these U.S.-sanctioned aircraft to destinations in Greece, Turkey and United Arab Emirates.

U.S. Treasury department on 21MAY15 stated  Mahan Air had a "blockable interest" in the planes, meaning they could be subject to an asset freeze, raising the possibility that Washington may attempt to have them seized at airports outside Iran.

Iran's aviation authority stated on 08JUN15 the country would take legal action if Washington tries to stop newly acquired Iranian passenger planes flying international routes.

Recapping regular route flight numbers and destinations for U.S.-sanctioned Mahan Air A346 EP-MMR (cn 416) and EP-MMH (cn 391), are as follows:

Flight W5118: IKA to ESB
Flight W558:  IKA to ATH
Flights W561, W563: IKA to DXB
Flight W582: IKA to KUL
Flight W551: IKA to BKK

Additionally, Mahan Air A346 EP-MMI (cn 449) on 01JUL15 made its first service flight to DXB, making three Mahan Air A346 aircraft now operating international flights in defiance of U.S. sanctions.

File photo of Mahan Air A346 EP-MMI, now joining EP-MMH and EP-MMR in operating international flights in defiance of U.S. sanctions.  [photo: Majid Tavakoli]

Recent flight data for Mahan Air A346, registration EP-MMH  [source: Flightradar24]:

Recent flight data for Mahan Air A346, registration EP-MMR  [source: Flightradar24]:

Imagery of U.S.-sanctioned Mahan Air A346, reg. EP-MMG

New amateur imagery posted this week at MyAviation.ir of U.S.-sanctioned Mahan Mahan Air Airbus A340-642, reg. EP-MMG (cn 383) at Tehran - Mehrabad International Airport (THR). First open-source photo available of aircraft in Mahan Air livery:

Undated photograph by Majid Khodaei depicts aircraft situated near Pars Aviation Service Company MRO facility at THR. In the background are seen IRGC-related Ilyushin Il-76TD "Candid" strategic airlifters and Antonov An-74TK-200 "Coaler" transport aircraft. Ilyushin at far left with green vertical stabilizer retains Yas Air paint scheme; airline sanctioned for similar reasons as EP-MMG.

EP-MMG obtained with Iraqi assistance; ferried 08May15 from Baghdad International Airport (BGW) to Tehran - Mehrabad International Airport (THR).

U.S. Treasury department on 21MAY15 stated  Mahan Air had a "blockable interest" in this plane, meaning it could be subject to an asset freeze, raising the possibility that Washington may attempt to have it seized at airports outside Iran. Iran's aviation authority stated on 08JUN15 the country would take legal action if Washington tries to stop newly acquired Iranian passenger planes flying international routes.

Should this follow the example of EP-MMH and EP-MMR, aircraft expected to commence flying international routes from Tehran - Imam Khomeini Airport (IKA).

U.S.-sanctioned Mahan Air jetliners operate regular flights to Europe

Amateur imagery has been posted from Athens International Airport (see below), depicting Mahan Air Airbus A340-642 aircraft registrations EP-MMH and EP-MMR operating regularly scheduled Flight W558 (IKA to ATH), and Flight W559 (ATH to IKA).

U.S. Treasury department on 21MAY15 stated  Mahan Air had a "blockable interest" in the planes, meaning they could be subject to an asset freeze, raising the possibility that Washington may attempt to have them seized at airports outside Iran.

Iran is currently flying regular routes with these sanctioned aircraft, to destinations Dubai, Ankara and Athens. Iran's aviation authority stated on 08JUN15 the country would take legal action if Washington tries to stop newly acquired Iranian passenger planes flying international routes.

Mahan Air Airbus A340-642, reg. EP-MMH (cn 391), Flight W559 ATH to IKA

Photographed 21JUN15 by Alex Filippopoulos

Mahan Air Airbus A340-642, reg. EP-MMH at Athens International Airport

Photographed 21JUN15 by Alex Filippopoulos

 

Mahan Air Airbus A340-642, reg. EP-MMH at Athens International Airport

Photographed 21JUN15 by Alex Filippopoulos

Mahan Air Airbus A340-642, reg. EP-MMR (cn 416), Flight W558 IKA to ATH

Photographed 23JUN15 by Alex Filippopoulos

Mahan Air Airbus A340-642, reg. EP-MMR at Athens International Airport

Photographed 23JUN15 by Alex Filippopoulos

Mahan Air Airbus A340-642, reg. EP-MMR at Athens International Airport

Photographed 23JUN15 by Alex Filippopoulos

Flights W558 and W559 info for Mahan Air Airbus A340-642 registration EP-MMH (click to enlarge):
[source: Flightradar24]

Flights W558 and W559 info for Mahan Air Airbus A340-642 registration EP-MMR (click to enlarge):
[source: Flightradar24]

Khamenei Restate Nuclear Redlines

Majlis Codifies Red Lines

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei today restated his red lines for a nuclear deal with world powers after discord surfaced inside Iran between the government and lawmakers. Earlier in the day, the Majlis had passed a nuclear bill despite strong objections from Rouhani’s government. The bill passed Khamenei’s red lines into law, even after Rouhani’s vice president told lawmakers before the vote that the legislature could complicate negotiations just one week before the 30 June deadline for a final agreement.

Ayatollah Khamenei insisted that sanctions should be lifted as Iran begins the implementation of its commitments under a final agreement, and not after the IAEA certifies that Iran was indeed in compliance. Khamenei said he would not trust IAEA, because the agency is neither independent nor fair.

Khamenei also restated his objection for any inspections of military sites suspected of carrying out nuclear weapons-related work. IAEA has insisted that it needs to complete its inspection of possible military dimension to the country’s nuclear program, which would include an inspection of Parchin military base. Iran’s acceptance of IAEA’s Additional Protocol, which would facilitate such inspections, was part of the Lausanne framework agreement announced in April by EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini and Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif.

Khameni also added a new redline today. He said he would not accept 10 or 12-year limitations on uranium enrichment, a central part of the Lausanne framework agreement.

"Unlike the insistence from the Americans, we do not accept long-term limitations of 10, 12 years. And we told them how many years of limitations we are ready to accept," Khamenei said. (IRNA, 23 June)

Comment: With exactly one week left to the 30 June deadline for a final agreement, Ayatollah Khamenei’s comments and Majlis' action today undercut the framework agreement already reached in Lausanne and announced by Zarif and Moghirini on 2 April. Khamenei wants all sanctions be lifted before IAEA inspectors verify Iranian compliance with dismantling part of the country’s nuclear infrastructure. He would not allow IAEA, irrespective of IAEA’s Additional Protocol, to inspect suspected sites, such as Parchin. The Lausanne framework agreement also stipulates a ten-year freeze on 20% enrichment, something Khamenei now appeared to be opposed to. Probably the negotiating partner in the nuclear talks should be Khamenei, and not Zarif. At least we will find out if there is a chance to cut a nuclear deal with Iran. Extending the deadline will not resolve the problem, it only creates a JPOA Forever!

Two Mahan Air A346 planes now flying international routes, defying U.S. sanctions

Two Mahan Air aircraft obtained 08MAY15 with Iraqi assistance are now flying international routes, in defiance of U.S. sanctions related to the airline's past IRGC-related logistical activities in support of Syrian Arab Republic, Lebanese Hezbollah, MODAFL and ICAO. The two aircraft are:

- Mahan Air Airbus A340-642, reg. EP-MMH (cn 391)

- Mahan Air Airbus A340-642, reg. EP-MMR (cn 416)

International flights for these U.S.-sanctioned aircraft now include the following destinations:

- Athens International Airport (ATH / LGAV), since 19JUN15

- Ankara - Esenboğa International Airport (ESB / LTAC), since 07JUN15

- Dubai International Airport (DXB / OMDB), since 03JUN15

Above: Mahan Air Airbus A340-642, reg. EP-MMH (cn 391) at Athens International Airport

Mahan Air Flight W558 photographed 19JUN15 by Antoni Sanagno

Table of recent flights for Mahan Air EP-MMH (cn 391)  [source: Flightradar24]

Table of recent flights for Mahan Air EP-MMR (cn 416)  [source: Flightradar24]

Also of interest, Mahan Air on 17JUN15 inaugurated flights to Milan – Malpensa Airport (MXP / LIMC). Inaugural flight undertaken by Airbus A343 aircraft reg. EP-MMB, obtained by Mahan Air on 23DEC12.

Mahan Air Airbus A340-311, reg. EP-MMB (cn 7335A2) undergoing water salute ceremony at Malpensa Airport

Mahan Air Flight W5110 photographed 17JUN15 by MXphotos

Iran Not Worried about Oil Market

Storing 40 million Barrels of oil at Sea in Anticipation of Nuclear Agreement

Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh has told German daily Tagesspiel in an interview that Iran is not worried about the market for sale of its oil when it raises output if it reaches a nuclear deal with the West.

“The situation is favorable for us, because in Iran and Middle East, the cost is less than $10 (per barrel). That’s why we’re not worried about the market,” Zanganeh said. (Iran Daily, 16 June)

The global market is currently facing a supply glut. Ample supplies are expected to continue in near term, outweighing geopolitical concerns about the conflicts in the region. Prices are expected to be restrained despite seasonal demand increases as Saudi Arabia and other key producers maintain high oil output to maintain their market shares. Brent crude oil price was at $63 today.

Iran is storing as much as 40 million barrels of crude oil on supertankers at sea in preparation of a nuclear deal.

“The first thing (we) will try and do is to offload quite a lot of storage… we are going to sell this oil at any price,” said Mehdi Varzi, a former official at the state-run National Iranian Oil Company. “Floating storage is there to be put onto the market as soon as possible after some sort of agreement.” (Reuters/Trade Arabia, 16 June)

Shipping sources and tanker tracking data on Reuters showed over the past three months Iran had deployed at least 15 very large crude carriers (VLCCs), each capable of two million barrels, to store oil. The approximate 38 million barrels of Iranian crude in floating storage, in addition to shore-based stocks, could quickly add supply to the market. (Reuters, 16 June)

Under the current interim nuclear agreement, JPOA, Iran exports approximately 1 million barrels a day. Oil Minister Zanganeh has said Iran would pump another 500,000 within a month of lifting of sanctions and up to 1 million bpd within six months. Most analysts believe it will take more time for increases at those levels.

File photo: Iran’s main oil export terminal at Kharq Island (Getty Images)

Expert-Level Nuclear Talks Continue in Vienna

Expert teams from the P5+1 and Iran are meeting in Vienna to draft technical annexes to a comprehensive deal. Lead U.S. negotiator Wendy Sherman arrived in Vienna today. Her counterparts from the P5+1 will also join her on Friday. Iran’s Deputy Foreign Ministers Abbas Araqchi and Majid Ravanchi are already in the city. Al-Monitor’s Laura Rozen reported today that the talks may go into overtime, with negotiators focused on the 30 June deadline for reaching a final deal.  

Progress in resolving the remaining issues has been slow since the two sides reached a framework agreement in Lausanne on 2 April. Among the unresolved issues is the determination of possible military dimensions of Iran’s nuclear program or lack of, with IAEA as the lead agency to make that determination. But Iran’s supreme leader has forbidden granting access to IAEA to inspect military sites suspected of carrying work on nuclear weapons in the past. The exact sequence of sanctions relief also remains unresolved.

UPDATE: World powers are prepared to accept a nuclear agreement with Iran that doesn’t immediately answer questions about past atomic weapons work, U.S. and Western officials said. (AP, 11 June)

Mahan Air A346 EP-MMH flying international routes, defying U.S. sanctions

Sanctioned Mahain Air A346, reg. EP-MMH photographed by Nabeel Hashmi of "Dubai Spotters"

According to Reuters:

Iran will take legal action if Washington tries to stop newly acquired Iranian passenger planes flying international routes, the head of the country's aviation authority said on Tuesday.

Iran's Mahan Air, blacklisted by Washington, bought eight second-hand Airbus A340s and one Airbus A321 in May in defiance of U.S. sanctions. Iran's semi-official Fars news agency reported last week that the planes would be used on international routes.

The U.S. Treasury department said last month that Mahan Air had a "blockable interest" in the planes, meaning they could be subject to an asset freeze, raising the possibility that Washington may attempt to have them seized at airports outside Iran.

"As long as ... a disruption has not taken place, we cannot make a definite assertion. But if it happens, Iran will take legal action," said Alireza Jahangirian, head of Iran's Civil Aviation Organization, according to the Iranian Students' News Agency (ISNA).

COMMENTARY: According to Flightradar24 data, sanctioned aircraft registration EP-MMH (cn 391) is currently undertaking international flights from IKA to destinations in Dubai and Turkey, just as the Fars News article cited above stated as the intent of Iran and Mahan Air (see table below). Above photo may well have been taken at DXB.

Ramifications of a U.S. seizure of this aircraft would likely impact current negotiations over the Iranian nuclear power program. The Iranians frame any new sanctioning efforts by the United States as "contrary to the spirit" of the nuclear negotiation process. That the Iranian negotiators would be undermined by an aircraft impoundment may also come into play were IRGC to be calculative of such an end, for it's understood IRGC views potential disclosures over its ballistic missile program and military industrial complex as detrimental to Iranian national defense. Additionally, a seizure might provide said political interest inside Iran with the added boost of popular opinion, in depicting the Iranian people deprived of safer air travel by a hostile power. Thus this is a potentially high stakes move by the Iranians, with the burden now placed on the United States to determine if impoundment will result from acquisition and operation of international routes undertaken by Mahain Air EP-MMH.

(click to enlarge)

Mahan Air Airbus A346, registration EP-MMH

Additional photos of Mahan Air Airbus A340-642, reg. EP-MMH (cn 391), recently acquired from Iraqi source on 08MAY15.

Iranian media reports this plane may be among those potentially slated to fly international routes in defiance of U.S. sanctions, put in place for that airline's IRGC-QF logistical assistance rendered to Syrian Arab Republic and Lebanese Hezbollah, as well as IAIO and MODAFL.

EP-MMH painted in Mahan Air livery on its first post-delivery flight THR-MHD on 01JUN15

(photo: Ata Tavanaei)

Flight deck detain of EP-MMH, as it appeared the week of delivery at THR

(Photo: Nariman Minusepehr)

Passenger compartment of EP-MMH, as it appeared the week of delivery at THR

(Photo: Nariman Minusepehr)