Thursday, January 3, 2013

Iran's Retaliatory Capabilities Against Israel Significantly Weakened – Report

An article by Eli Bardenstein / Ma’ariv
Translated by Viktoria Lymar /

“The war in Syria has shuffled the cards; currently, the estimation in Jerusalem is that the Syrian army, due to enervation, will prefer not to join Tehran in case the latter decides to respond to hitting its nuclear facilities. Without Assad's backing, the chances of Hezbollah risking to attack Israel have also significantly decreased.”
“Our strategic position in the region has greatly improved.” – Senior Israeli official.
To read the article, please click here.
File photo: Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah (left), Syrian president Bashar al-Assad (center) and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in Damascus, Syria. February 2010. (AP/SANA)/IranEdge)


Anonymous said...

A lot of these type of scared Zionist psy-op articles are appearing lately and they follow the old adage "if my aunt had balls, she would be my uncle". In any case Uncle Sam (or Samuel) in Washington Federal Reserve is now a bankrupt deadbeat wih $17 TRILLION deficit and would not approve of a regional war by the Zionist poodle which itself is facing severe internal problems, not to mention a demographic report yesterday that confirmed than in the next 5 years the Palestinians and Arabs in Occupied Palestine would outnumber the Zionist interlopers.

These articles are for Zionist domestic consumption and public relations and to give a semblance of reassurance to the 80% of Zionists who hold dual passports and would head for for departure gates at Ben Gurion airport. The simple fact that these articles in Zionist media reek of insecurity and fear amongst the largely isolated Zionists who fear the next phase of the "Arab Spring" as the Salafi thugs turn their guns on Golan and Occupied Palestine. It is just a question of time?

The pathetic Zionist rabble's performance during the Gaza slaughter does not inspire much confidence and their ability to "attack Iran". As any grown-up would know, the Zionist entity simply lacks the strategic mass to attack Iran and then engage in an endless war of attrition in the whole region and destabilize the global economy, let alone set the Arab petro-pimps on fire too. SIMPLY NOT GOING TO HAPPEN.

Nader Uskowi said...

What’s your opinion on the message, is Iran weaker now to retaliate against Israel because of Syria setback?

Anonymous said...

Let them keep dreaming..Whatever makes them happy.. I really hope they're stupid enough to attack Iran.

B.M.A said...


-THE WHOLE world have been watching the slaughter in Syria with utter shock and disbelief albeit the silence in the UN SECURITY COUNCIL[if not insecurity council] ,WITH THE USA and HER MISTRESSES in the NAME OF gulf Monarchs stocking the embers of the fire inside SYRIA.MANY PEOPLE HAVE KNOWN THIS WHOLE EPISODE TO BE A CONSPIRACY TO contain IRAN BY forcing a regime change in SYRIA and thereby cutting down HEZBOLLAH TO SIZE.This article by ELI Bardenstein puts to shame all those brainwashed analysts who have been calling on the fighters in SYRIA as 'Syrians fighting for democracy'.

-what A GROSS MISCALCULATION on the part of ISRAEL and the US in thinking that IRAN IS CONTAINED BY THE FALL OF SYRIA[or its position now].

Anonymous said...

Nader, Iran's position in Syria or Lebanon has very little to do with its retaliatory capacity vis a vis the three decade old US/Zionist threats which accelerated since 2003 Iraq invasion and then cooled down when US got bogged down in Afghanistan and Iraq and so forth. The FACT of the matter is that Iran despite the mullahs is still a very large and powerful nation due to the sheer dint of its size, natural resources, strategic location and nationalistic population. The Zionists simply can not act on their own and will need US support and "green light". Their F-16I (Sufa) simply do not have the payload or range to loiter in Iranian airspace and accomplish much, only US with a suicidal and at least three 24/7 month long air and land campaign can set back Iran's nuclear program but the consequences would be horrendous for both.

Interestingly, your blog missed the rather hushed news that a US unmarked G4 Gulfstream had been parked at the Abadan tarmac (supposedly for "repairs") for 3 days an then suddenly disappeared to Europe. I suspect that there are many unofficial US-Iranian backdoor channels going on. Interestingly, the IRGC and some mullahs have been making noises about no need for discussions with the US.

The problem for the Zionists is that they are very scared of the fallout of "Arab Spring" and the idiot Nothing Yahoo has been to Jordan trying to get the picture about the Salafis from puppet Abdullah. In any case, an almost improbable Zionist "attack" on Iran will lead to a wider war and the retaliation will be on many fronts. Iranian missile forces are quite numerous and can inflict some serious damage and also Hezbollah is hardly going to twiddle its thumbs. Hassan NasrAllah's speech today is quite interesting and acurately predicts a long civil war in Syria and possible partitions into sectarian cantons. In such an unstable environment, neither the US or its Zionist brat are going to upset the status quo. I see a continuation of sanctions and economic squeeze and also some destabilization attempts during next June's Presidential elections if they can find some "green" type patsy.

Considering the very poor performance of the Zionist rabble to engage in a low risk land war with barely 5000 lightly armed Hamas fighters in Gaza, I don't think they are in a position to take on Iran and face massive barrages of rockets and artillery on their population centres. The Zionist population has no stomach for a long war of attrition against a foe that can hit back and cause mayhem in the region. I would say that the deployment of Patriots in Turkey is part of the strategy against Iran, but the demoralized Turkish military is not playing ball. Many officers and even the ex-Turkish Chief of Staff is on trial for sedition and then there are the 20 million angry Alevis and same number of Kurds in an open war of liberation.

So I believe that Iran's deterrence is stronger now as Syria is very unpredictable and Assad with his back towards the wall can easily drag the Zionists into a war if he thinks he is about to sink. I see a long drawn out affair with a lot of hot air and sabre rattling by all as ususl. With US economic woes getting worse and a plethora of social issues at home, intiating a swan song war with Iran is not on the cards and many US think tank wargamging scenarios also have cautioned against such lunacy. Zionist politics at home are also in flux with the ultra-conservatives pushing for even more extreme policies in regards to more land grab of the West Bank. So all this choas in the region offers Iran many avenues of retaliation and influence.

Nader Uskowi said...

Interesting that you say Iran’s retaliatory capabilities in case of any Israeli attack on the country has actually increased because of the crisis in Syria. I don’t agree. Syria and Lebanon’s Hezbollah have been Iran’s closest allies and time and again it had been said that an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities would cause massive retaliation form its allies. In fact, that was said to be a major factor why Israel would not attack in the first place. Today the Assad regime is a caricature of its former self, leaving Hezbollah practically all by itself. These developments will have profound effects on Iran’s (and Israel’s) future calculations in relations to each other and within the region.

Anonymous said...

How come Iran did not retaliate against Israel in a major way in 2007 when Israel pulled off its Operation Orchard against Syria's nuclear facility???

Hezbullah attacking women & children does not count as retaliation, it is counter-productive for Iran.

Iran talks the talk (for internal use only), but it does not walk the walk!

Anonymous said...

as Iran had approximately one national government in the Middle East firmly allied with it, and now has one less, it's rather obvious that such is the case.

Lebanese Hezbollah is now also put in the postion of having to be much more circumspect.

Anonymous said...

Ha Ha Ha!! It's funny soon as you mention Israel all the Jew and Iranian hating Wahhabi/Hezbollahi/Islamist come from under the stone work!..:))

Anonymous said...

You know what's it like with these Hezbollah types.They never stop being cheeky. Even if a rock comes crashing on their thick skulls,they will still deny it!

Anonymous said...

Mr. Nader, you can wipe the smile off your face, Sir, You forget that Russian and Iranian forces on Syrian Soil are giving the Syrian Army, Logistical and Tactical support! You failed to mention that Russian Iskander Missile Batteries have emboldened the Syrian regime, over 150 S-300 and SSN26 Missile
Batteries,operated by Russian Teams have scared The Turks and the Israeli's
from doing anything Stupid! Iran Has deployed on the Ground and is working in conjunction With the Syrian Army, who has replenished its divisions, courtesy of Iran. The death squad Animals, that are supported by the west have been virtually routed and have been reduced to desparate misquito style attacks.
The European Union still refuses to impose sanctions against Hezbollah.
Jordan is being mapped out for missile strikes, and will be attacked by syria if ti doesn't stop sending in Terrorist, from its side of the border. So the Zionist are delusional if they think that they're gaining any advantage in Weakining Iran from a Retaliatory attack in any way! If anything Iran is encroaching on it's borders and can stike at anytime, thanks to the Russians.

Nader Uskowi said...

Not smiling, just commented on an observation by Anon 5:43 AM (are you the same commentator?) The comment was in relation to the Anon’s observation that Iran’s retaliatory capabilities have actually increased because of the Syrian crisis. I thought that was far fetched. The present Syrian regime, notwithstanding all the help it receives from Russia and Iran, is a much weaker version of the old regime, what I described as a caricature of its old self. A weakened Syria also means a weakened Hezbollah. Iran needs to, and I am sure it will, take these realities into account when calculating its capabilities and the weakened state of Syrian/Hezbollah deterrence in case of an Israeli attack. Don’t you agree? What is your main objection to this analysis? Or do you believe, like the Anon 5:43 AM, that Iran’s position is “stronger” now that Syrian regime is facing a serious crisis?

Anonymous said...

The unnamed Israeli senior official provides the basis for US/NATO perpetuating hostilities in Syria and blocking mediation efforts: a diminished position for the "resistance camp" against an ever expansive colonial project in Palestine. Meanwhile, the bloodshed in Syria continues.

Anonymous said...

Nader, I believe the Zionists are not in a position to do anything much as there is now a global revulsion and resetment at their warmongering and fiscal scams, particularly the Jewish banksters who have contributed to EU growing problems and other issues. In Europe there is increasing anti-Zionist sentiment and just a few days ago a Hungarian parliamentarian burnt the Zionist flag in public displaying the prevalent public anger. Even in the US alternate media there are now rumblings over AIPAC/Jewish influence on the government and cabinet appointments, particularly over their efforts to veto Chuck Hagel's Defence Secretary appointment.

Secondly, the Syrian situation is not going to play to the Zionist script, the Palestinians with Saudi and Persian Gulf petro-pimpdom support are now uniting as they see a mega threat from the new Zionist ultra-conservative alliance shaping up that will gobble up all of the west bank. In such a tense and shifting environment a major war in the region will result in instant catastrophe, if the Zionists start a conflict with Iran. A major conflict is militarily impossible considering their inept performance in Gaza and considering the fact that a single 122mm grad rocket sent the whole Zionist population of Southern occupied Palestine in hysterics, not to mention the unprofessional conduct and appearance of the IDF Zionist rabble that is casualty averse and only good at killing women and children. The so-called Iron Dome was a spectacular failure and has exposed many weaknesses, which Iranians have not ignored.

A war with Iran is a different matter and simply not possible and the Zionist entity would be worn to the ground in an endless war on may fronts including domestic attacks, just a simple bombing of a bus in Tel-Aviv forced the Zionists into a ceasefire, can you imagine the type of attacks in a war with Iran? So I think this whole issue is a dud to begin with. Iran has enough retaliatory power of its own to wipe the Zionist slate clean. The Zionists had built a myth of invincibility considering the lacklustre capability of the Arabs since the 1967 war, largely due to loudmouth Nasser's incompetence. Since then the Zionist military has been on a gradual decline, in 1973 they almost lost, 1982 misplaced invasion of Lebanon created Hezbollah and subsequent defeats and now a growing Arab Spring problem. Future direction of Egypt is far from certain or the growing instability in the Persian Gulf petro-pimpdoms. Even UAE-Egyptian relations are worsening as the Muslim Brotherhood starts local franchises in the Arab part of Persian Gulf. Iran is a large nation of 80 million and not easy to engage in conflict by small pip-squeak Zionists imported from eastern Europe or US and totally dependent on deadbeat US taxpayer largesse.

Rationally thinking and minus the usual Zionist hasbara propaganda line, I believe that the Zionists are on borrowed time anyway and simply can not initiate a conflict with Iran. So I would also agree with some of the commentators that the Syrian situation is far from over and Russia is not about to walk away from this fight. In any case, Iran is quite capable of adequate deterrance. On the contrary, I see a stronger Iranian, Iraqi, Syrian and Hezbollah cresent forming. Don't forget that Turkey itself gas over 20 million Alevis and they are not impressed by the moronic Erdogans antics and subservience to NATO and US interference in Syria. Let's not overlook the Kurdish situation either. So in this complex web, I don't see how the Zionists, even if they could, can initiate a suicidal war that will ruin the global economy, which already is facing severe problems not to mention growing poverty in Europe and US.

Don't rule Assad the the Alevi-Shia forces in the region out so easily. The final joke will be on the Turkey's, no pun intended.

Anonymous said...

Mr. Uskowi,

when it comes to Israel, for my part, i personally think that over the years, Iran's option have always been considered through a conventional prism. The Iranian defense establishment only assumes an asymmetrical posture involving third party guerrilla groups and terrorist attack when assessing its military doctrine in a worst case scenario of a total US involvement.

However, would it be on operational terms and preparations, or via official channels of propaganda, Iranian leaders never counted upon any secondary actor to face its foe if it happens to be Israel. Far from underestimating their enemy, they nonetheless know full well that Hamas has been hammered twice already through cheer military force and absolute superiority, and Hezbollah, while of no compare on defense capabilities with the former through its history with Israel, is confined to a purely defensive posture.

By essence, it is partisan-like army, will not and cannot become an offensive army outside of its own borders. Nasrallah has always been clear in that regard, stating several times since 2006 that his troops won't take on Israel in the context of an eventual conflict with Iran, if not threatened itself directly, since it would prove too costly for them, if not critical.

Iranians army-men have all the necessary means to present Israel with an effective counter-force on every front in the event it finally chooses to go against it unilaterally without any support whatsoever. It has the needed air defense squadrons equipped with the latest air-to-air ordnance Russia and China have to offer and they are renowned for having fitted them on the majority of their American vintage aircraft, notably the F-4 and the F-14. In parallel to that, they upgrade and extend their air defense on a continuous and widely documented basis. HAWKs, FM-90s, S-200s, Buk-M2s, you name it, all upgraded well beyond their initial level of sophistication and supported by top-notch, long range, anti-stealth radars such as the Nebo SVU which was recently officially unveiled during the latest air defense drills. Open source documentation shows that digitization and integration into a net-centric architecture of this heterogeneous mixture have been a centerpiece of Iranian efforts to compensate for their aging air force despite its mentionned upgrades. The air defense net of 2013 is not the same as it was even in 2007. The recent capture of an RQ-170 drone (now mostly acknowledged by the American defense community) is an actual proof of this burgeoning prowess. Furthermore, IDF elements will have very little latitude to face all of these defensive entities while entering Iranian airspace after a significantly long flight, and hence short on fuel and margin to maneuver. All these factors dampen a lot of their technological advantage against their Iranian counterparts. I wrote a more detailed view on what it would take them to go with such a highly complex and risky operation on one of your recent articles , last comment :

And i didn't even take into account Iran's direct retaliatory options through massive salvos of solid fueled Sejil-2s or latest liquid-fueled Shahab-3s against which their ABMs have never been tested yet, and doubted in their reliable ability to do that by their very founder, Uzi Rubin. Anyway, the Arrow-III has been subject to undisclosed major malfunction that prevented its latest test launch a couple month ago, and got delayed past 2016 at the very least for operational deployment.

All in all, no matter what will happen to Syria, Israel won't EVER attack Iran directly, without serious American support and go-ahead.
The real risk nowadays would be for Hezbollah itself, which is in another ballpark altogether, cut off from its main missile supplier against its arch-enemy, but that's another story.

Anonymous said...

Israel controls all of palestine and long has controlled it.....but Israel really isn't interested in the settlements in the West Bank as all those settlers are going to be uprooted by the Israeli government and sent to colonize Tehran.

the Israelis have secretly created over 100,000,000 clones who will settle in Iran and modernize the place, maybe even improve the level of chess.

Anonymous said...

Very good response to the zionist speculatative vishes, that their positions....have improved.

I see that "the authours" are bound to continue that Zionist relationship (subscription).
Are they employees for the ADL ??

What have happened to the old blog and is it still accessible for a reading ??

Anonymous said...

You're the one that keeps on dreaming.

Anonymous said...

Take a wild guess B.M.A,who is slaughtering the Syrian people?

Islamic theocracy has invested hugely in Syrian Regime and will hugely lose in its downfall.
Hezbollah will be isolated by Assad's demise because Islamic regime can't supply arms through Syria and Syria can't blackmail Lebanon with invasion.Therefore Lebanese government will act against isolated terrorist Hezbollah.
The plan is slowly coming together.

Anonymous said...

Can't wait! It's the best news I've heard all week!

Anonymous said...

Quote: "Interestingly, your blog missed the rather hushed news that a US unmarked G4 Gulfstream had been parked at the Abadan tarmac (supposedly for "repairs") for 3 days an then suddenly disappeared to Europe. I suspect that there are many unofficial US-Iranian backdoor channels going on. Interestingly, the IRGC and some mullahs have been making noises about no need for discussions with the US."

Article: "Hillary Clinton in hospital cause of plane accident in Iran?"

Anonymous said...

Well the article emphasizes on Syria not getting involved.. I could see how assad could come to think of it as an opportunity. It does remain that it's force would be weaker, but they could try to regain some legitimacy. It would pretty much get him the Palestinian support, I would venture.

Anonymous said...

How come Iran did not retaliate against Israel in a major way in 2007 when Israel pulled off its Operation Orchard against Syria's nuclear facility?

Because such an act would invite an Israeli response and jeopardize Iran's nuclear program which is much further along than Syria's nascent nuclear program. Iran isn't stupid.

Iran talks the talk (for internal use only), but it does not walk the walk!

You are confusing Iran with Israel. After all, Israel has repeatedly threatened to attack Iran for many years despite having never carried out their actual threats. Therefore, Israel talks the talk, but it does not walk the walk!

Quinn said...

This is gorgeous!