Putin Meets Leaders of Saudi Arabia and UAE

Syria and Fight against ISIL on Top of Agenda

 

Russian President Vladimir Putin meeting with Saudi Arabia Deputy Crown Prince and Defense Minister Mohammad bin Salman (top photo) and UAE Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed (above) in Sochi, Russia; 11 October 2015 (President of Russia @KremlinRussia)

83% of Syria No Longer Under Control of Government – Report

83 percent; that’s how much territory the Syrian government has lost control of since the country’s civil war began more than four years ago, according to a new analysis by HIS Janes’s. Territory fully controlled by President Assad’s forces has shrunk by 18% between 1 January and 10 August 2015 to 29,797 square kilometers, roughly a sixth of the country, according to latest data produced by HIS Conflict Monitor.

Assad appears to concentrate his efforts on holding key strategic areas with large populations including Damascus, the Alawi coastal provinces of Latakia and Tartous, and the city of Homs, on the corridor connecting Damascus to the Latakia coast. HIS Jane’s observes that these are the areas likely to be defended, even at the expense of losing other major cities like Aleppo and Daraa. 

On military manpower, the report says that the Syrian Army is believed to have lost around 50% of its prewar strength of 300,000, with manpower shortages creating a serious challenge to the government’s war effort. Many of the remaining soldiers are very young Alawi conscripts, sent to the front lines with minimal training and low morale. (HIS Jan’s, 23 August)

Under the circumstances, major military operations are apparently being led by the Quds Force-backed foreign Shia militias, especially the Lebanese Hezbollah, with the Syrian army on support role.

Map credit: The Syrian government lost 18% of territory since the beginning of this year. (HIS Conflict Monitor/HIS Jane’s)

Another way to assess Iran's support of Assad

by Paul Iddon

Many detractors of former U.S. President Jimmy Carter lambaste him for leaving a former ally of the United States, the last Shah of Iran Mohammed Reza Pahlavi, fly around the world in exile without a country in which to take refuge. As Ronald Reagan put it during the 1980 presidential campaign, the Shah was a “stalwart ally” of the United States in that region and did its “bidding” there. Not assisting him or giving him refuge when he went into exile Reagan believed was “a blot” on America's record.

When the Shah died in 1981 former U.S. President Richard Nixon, a friend of the Shah, attended his funeral in Cairo wherein he called the Shah's treatment by the U.S. in exile as “shameful”, since it had “turned its back on one of its friends.” He too believed it had been a mistake not to assist that former American ally. After all, the Shah was an autocrat who he had helped elevate to be become a major regional power during his presidency as part of his administration's Nixon Doctrine.

Both these now deceased former American presidents voiced their view that even after the Shah had fallen the U.S. should not of snubbed him after he having had, in Reagan's words, “carried our load” for so long in the region they believed it was only right that they stand by their friend and ally until the end.

I'm often reminded of that episode of history when I see the lengths to which the current regime in Iran is going to prop-up the regime in Syria of President Bashar al-Assad. Yes, Assad is a strategically important ally and his fall would undermine Iran's strategic interests in the region vis-a-vis Hezbollah in Lebanon. But at the same time there is a much more personal component to the support Damascus has been receiving from Tehran given the fact that it was the Assad regime in Syria which had given decisive assistance to Iran during its brutal eight-year war with Saddam Hussein's Iraq.

The fostering of the Tehran-Damascus alliance came at a time when the help Iran got from the outside world during that war was extremely limited. Even after Iraq began to use chemical weapons on the battlefield. Many in the Iranian regimes Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) paramilitary still remember the help Syria gave them at a crucial and critical time for them shortly after their inception and see their support of the Assad regime today as one way to repay that support. Which is one reason why IRGC forces are also being sent to Syria to ensure Damascus and the remaining parts of the country Assad still retains remain under his control -- and possibly even to help him undertake an offensive aimed at retaking Idlib Province.

As the Shah had held the fort for Washington for so long in the Persian Gulf region so too did Assad for Iran in the Levant. And many in the establishment in Iran feel that another reason Assad should be supported when his rule is being directly threatened.

The comparison is obviously highly imperfect in many respects. After all, there have been weeks in Syria in the last four years whereby the Assad regime killed and tortured to death more people than the last Shah did during the entirety of his lengthy 38-year reign. Additionally, the last Shah did not authorize the bombing of his own country's cities like Assad did. And while the primary reason Tehran has sacrificed blood and treasure in keeping Assad in power is indeed strategic there is also that more personal component to this support which shouldn't be readily forgotten. Assad may well be a mass-murdering bastard, but it's worth remembering that from Tehran's point-of-view he is – as was Somoza to Washington once-upon-a-time – their bastard. 

Iran: ‘Axis of Resistance’ Should Block U.S. Influence in Region

Ali Akbar Velayati, Khamenei’s senior advisor for foreign affairs and former Iran’s foreign minister, said Sunday in Tehran that the "Axis of Resistance," which comprised of Iran, Syria and the Lebanese Hezbollah, should block U.S. influence in the region. Velayati said the duty of the Axis is “not only to fight against the dominance of foreigners in their countries, but also to cut the influence of the U.S. in the region.” (IRIB/Press TV, 16 August)

Velayati added that "mercenaries" are currently fighting in Muslim countries to materialize the goals of the United States. Velayati probably does not count Quds Force-led foreign Shia militias fighting in Syria to save Assad’s regime among the "mercenaries," nor is he probably counting the Iranians and Lebanese fighting in the country as foreigners. Velayati also did not address the issue of what has happened to the "Axis of Resistance" now that the Syrian government has lost control over most of the country.

Photo credit: Ali Akbar Velayati, Khamenei’s senior advisor, delivers a speech in Tehran; 16 August 2015 (IRIB/Press TV)

Kurdish Forces Capture Tel Abyad, Syrian Border Town

Kurdish YPG forces today captured the Syrian town of Tel Abyad on the Turkish border, striking a major blow to ISIL insurgents who had held the town and its border crossing for more than a year, The New York Times reported. Kurdish commanders took control of the town on Tuesday. They are now clearing booby-traps and mines planted by ISIL throughout the city. ISIL had used Tel Abyad border crossing to smuggle in fighters and materiel into its Syrian stronghold of Raqqa.

YPG, which in January led the liberation of Kobane, and their Arab allies, brought down the black flag of ISIL and raised their own flag in the city center. Capturing the town now allows the Syrian Kurds to link different parts of predominantly Kurdish territories in northern Syria, a major step in creating an autonomous Kurdish regional government in the country.

It was unclear if Turkey would allow YPG to use the Tel Abyad border crossing to bring in badly needed supplies. People’s Protection Units (YPG) is an offshoot of Turkey's Kurdish PKK, which has been battling Turkish forces during a 30-year insurgency.

YPG's advance toward Tel Abyad last week was facilitated by intense U.S.-led airstrikes against ISIL positions in and around the city.

Photo credit: A Turkish soldier watched Tuesday as the flag of YPG was raised over the city of Tel Abyad, Syria. The town is on the Turkish border. (Lefteris Pitarakis/AP)

Syrian Kurds Battle ISIL at Turkish Border

The YPG, the Syrian-Kurdish armed unit that led the liberation of Kobane in January, is now battling ISIL to capture Tel Abyad, a Syrian town at the Turkish border. Seizing Tel Abyad not only deals a blow to the Islamic State, but also would help the YPG to link up Kurdish-controlled areas in northern Syria. This could be a major step toward establishing an autonomous Kurdish regional government in Syria.

YPG fighters were battling ISIL militants at the eastern outskirts of Tel Abyad on Sunday, Reuters reported. They are pushing into ISIL stronghold of Raqqa province and threatening one of its supply lines to Raqqa city, ISIL’s de facto capital.

“The road connecting Tel Abyad and Raqqa city is in our firing range,” said YPG spokesman Redur Xeili. (Reuters, 14 June)

The YPG offensive is supported by U.S.-led coalition airstrikes and small Syrian rebel groups.

Photo credit: Turkish soldiers stand guard as Syrian refugees wait for transportation after crossing into Turkey from Tel Abyad; 10 June 2015 (Osman Orsal/Reuters)

Nusra Front military leadership KIA'd by Syrian Arab Air Force

 

File photo: Syrian Arab Air Force Mikoyan MiG-29SM multirole fighter aircraft

 According to Aljazeera:

An air strike by Syrian government forces has killed a senior commander of the Syrian branch of al-Qaeda, al-Nusra Front, Syrian state media has reported.

SANA state news agency said Abu Hammam al-Shami, also known as al-Farouq al-Suri, was killed in a special army operation in Idlib province on Thursday.

Al-Shami, a veteran al-Qaeda leader from Damascus, held the title of general military commander for al-Nusra Front.

[…]

Pentagon spokesman, Colonel Steve Warren, said: "We cannot confirm press reports of the deaths of senior al-Nusra leaders near the province of Idlib."

However, he added: "Neither the US or the coalition have conducted air strikes near that location in recent days."

COMMENTARY: According to Nusra Front, three other military leaders were KIA in the airstrike, including Abu Musab Falastini, Abu Omar Kurdi, and Abu Baraa Ansari.

If the airstrike was indeed carried out by SyAAF (Syrian Arab Air Force), it would serve to provide a boost to Syrian Arab Republic armed forces, as well as the Iran-led coaltion against ISIL and Al-Qaeda linked forces that includes Nusra Front.

Some social media sources claim the airstrike was carried out by SyAAF Mikoyan MiG-29 aircraft. If true, it may have been the SyAAF Mikoyan MiG-29SM, a type known to carry an expanded arsenal of air-to-ground weaponry, including Kh-29T/TE (AS-14 'Kedge') and Kh-31A/P (AS-17 'Krypton') missiles and KAB-500KR guided bombs. [source: IHS Jane's]

Below: situation map for forces at Idlib Governate, dated 05MAR15 [source: Peto Lucem]

Iran Funneling $1 Billion to $2 Billion a Month into Syria - Report

The Christian Science Monitor quoted a Beirut-based diplomat with contacts in Syria as estimating that Iran funnels between $1 billion to $2 billion a month into Syria.

“A Beirut-based diplomat with extensive contacts in Syria estimates that Iran funnels between $1 billion to $2 billion a month into Syria to keep Mr, Assad in Power. Of that, some $500 million is spent on military assistance, mostly for National Defense Force, a 70-000-strong loyalist militia commanded by IRGC, according to this diplomat and others who monitor Syria closely,” The Christian Science Monitor reported today.

“They [the Iranians] have officially given around $5 billion in (line of) credit, and when you consider the financial aid, military aid, discounted oil, and man hours of IRGC officials the number must be north of $10 billion (annually). Absent Iranian largess, Assad would not be financially solvent today,” said Karim Sadjadpour, a Washington-based senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. (The Christian Science Monitor, 5 January)

A slump in global oil prices on top of existing sanctions, however, is squeezing Iran. Aside from funneling billions to the Syrian regime, Iran is also waging an expensive military campaign in Iraq and is supporting the operations of the Lebanese Hezbollah.  

Regarding Hezbollah, the Christian Science Monitor reports that according to a wide range of political and diplomatic sources in Beirut, as Iran tightens its belt because of falling oil prices, the Hezbollah in particular is coming under pressure financially, imposing salary cuts on personnel, defer payments to suppliers and reduce monthly stipends to its political allies in Lebanon.

But analysts do not expect Iran to end its financial support of Syria or Hezbollah.

“I think people will go hungry in Tehran before Iran will cease its investments in this so-called ‘axis of resistance,’ says Sadjadpour.

Photo credit: Deramstime.com

Iraqi, Syrian FMs in Tehran

The foreign ministers of Iran, Iraq and Syria held talks in Tehran today, pledging that they would carry on working together to fight the Islamic State. Iraqi FM Ibrahim al-Jaafari and his Syrian counterpart Walid Moallem were in Tehran to attend a previously scheduled conference on violence and extremism. The rare trilateral meeting was initiated at the invitation of Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif. 

Photo credit: Iranian FM Javad Zarif (r.), Syrian FM Walid Moallem (Center, back to camera) and Iraqi FM Ibrahim al-Jaafari during a rare trilateral meeting; Tehran, 9 December 2014 (Mehr News Agency)

Hezbollah Blames Israel for Killings of Nuclear Scientist Near Damascus

Five nuclear scientists were ambushed outside Damascus on Sunday and were killed by machine-gun fire while riding in a commuter van. The Lebanese Hezbollah today blamed Israel for their death. At least one of the assassinated scientists was an Iranian citizen, the Syrian state TV reported today. (McClatchy DC, 10 November)

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights described the dead as “five nuclear engineers” working at a scientific research center near the neighborhood of Barzeh, northern Damascus. The research facility in Bazreh came under rocket-propelled grenade attack in July 2013, killing at least six scientists and wounding 19, the state TV reported at the time.

Syrian officials released no details on the nationality of the other four men killed, but said the assassinated Iranian citizen was a “scientific consultant.”

“We can confirm that five scientific experts were martyred by terrorists as part of an ongoing plots of the Zionist entity (Israel),” a Hezbollah security commander said in Beirut. “We have long determined that the Zionist entity works closely with a number of the so-called rebel groups for anti-Hezbollah and anti-Syrian regime operations.” (McClatchy DC, 10 November)

File photo: Bazreh, Syria (BBC)

Obama on Iran

President Obama today spoke to Bob Schieffer on CBS ‘Face the Nation.’ Below are excerpts of Obama’s comments related to Iran and the region.

• Our number one priority with respect to Iran is making sure they don’t get nuclear weapon... The question now is: Are we going to be able to close this final gap so that they can reenter the international community, sanctions can be slowly reduced and we have verifiable, lock-tight assurances that they can’t develop a nuclear weapon... There's still a big gap... We may not be able to get there.

• Second thing that we have an interest is that Iran has influence over the Shia – both in Syria and in Iraq and we do have a shared enemy in ISIL.

• We are focused on our common enemy but there’s no coordination or common battle plan (with Iran) and there will not be…There’s some de-conflicting in the sense that… we let them know, don’t mess with us; we’re not here to mess with you.

• I’ve been very clear publicly and privately we are not connecting in any way the nuclear negotiations and the issue of ISIL.

• It’s an almost absolute certainty that [Assad] has lost legitimacy with such a large portion of the country by dropping barrel bombs and killing children… that he can’s regain the kind of legitimacy that would stitch Syria together again. 

Photo credit: President Barack Obama talking to Bob Schieffer during an interview on Face the Nation; the Oval Office, 9 November 2014 (CBS)