Zarif Will Not Attend Syria Talks

Israeli Attack on Damascus Airport – Syria Battlefield Update

Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Hoosein Amir-Abdollahian said today that Foreign Minister Javad Zarif will not attend the next round of Syria talks scheduled for this weekend in Vienna. The surprise announcement did not offer reasons for Zarif’s decision not to attend.

There were speculations in Iran’s social media that Zarif will be accompanying President Rouhani on his visit to Rome and Paris this weekend, but that could be an afterthought, as Zarif was not scheduled to travel with Rouhani until today’s announcement. Abdollahian was also non-committal if the Iranian delegation without Zarif would attend the Vienna talks.

Abdollahian, who was speaking to the pro-Hezbollah al-Mayadin TV upon his arrival in Beirut, added that the United States should provide “answers regarding some unilateral actions taken by some of the sides, without consulting other participants in talks.” He said Tehran “would not tolerate actions that violate the agreement reached in the Vienna I.” It was not understood which sides and what actions Abdollahian was referring to and whether they were linked to Zarif’s boycott of the upcoming meeting.


Israeli Airstrikes on Damascus Airport

Pro-regime Syrian media reported today that Israel has launched airstrikes on Damascus International Airport on Wednesday. Photos published on Twitter allegedly show that the main terminal, with duty free shops, has been hit.

The airstrikes were reportedly launched at around 6 p.m. local time, and could have targeted weapons air shipment into the airport. The last reported Israeli strike in Syria was on 31 October, reportedly hitting a weapons convoy close to the Lebanese-Syria border in the Qalamoun Mountains region.


Syria Battlefield Update

Iran-led pro-regime forces, under the command of Quds Force Commander Gen. Qasem Soleimani, scored an impressive, if symbolic, victory on Tuesday in breaking ISIL’s siege of isolated Kuweiris Airbase southwest of Aleppo. The Islamic State fighters had surrounded the government airbase for nearly two years.

The Kuweiris operation was part of a larger Iran-led offensive in Aleppo province. The main goals of the Aleppo offensive appear to be pushing back rebel strongholds southwest of Aleppo City, controlling the line of communications in the area, breaking the rebel siege of Shia villages of Nubl and Zahara, and attempting to encircle the city of Aleppo, where the opposition control eastern half of the city, as a last step before launching an assault against the opposition in east Aleppo.

The Aleppo offensive, which began in early October, brings together the Quds Force, IRGC Ground Force, Lebanese Hezbollah, Iraqi Shia militias, and Afghan and Pakistani Shia fighters, under Soleimani’s command, supported by Russian air power. In the first month of the offensive, Iran and its allies have suffered heavy casualties during the intense fighting.

Elsewhere in northwest of Syria, Russian-enabled Syrian government forces simultaneously started other offensives in northern Hama and southern Idlib against opposition forces. The goals appear to be pushing out the opposition from Hama province and regaining territories lost to the opposition in Idlib province in order to reduce the threat to vital government heartland of Latakia. The Idlib-Hama offensives, however, appear to be stalled at strategic Al Ghab Plain, bordering Latakia, and in Hama.

On 5 November, Jund al-Aqsa-led fighters scored a major victory against the regime and retook the town of Morek in northern Hama.

Photo credit: A scene allegedly showing a destroyed section of Damascus International Airport and its duty-free shops during an Israeli airstrike; 11 November 2015 (Twitter)

Quds Day Procession in Tehran

Iran marked the annual Quds (Jerusalem) Day today, the last Friday of the holy month of Ramadan. Marchers chanted “Death to America” and “Death to Israel” slogans and burnt the U.S. and Israeli flags. This year they also had a new slogan: “Death to Al-Saud.”

The Quds Day procession began 36 years ago by the founder of the Islamic Republic, Imam Khomeini, and was dedicated to the “liberation” of Jerusalem. It has evolved into an annual rite of hatred against the U.S., Israel and other perceived enemies.

Photo credit: Quds Day procession in Tehran; 10 July 2015 (Fars News Agency)

Netanyahu Sweeps to Victory

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his Likud party won a clear and decisive victory in Israel’s parliamentary elections. Netanyahu will now serve a record-breaking fourth term as prime minister.

“Against all odds, we achieved a great victory,” Netanyahu said during his victory speech in Tel Aviv. “Now we have to form a strong and stable government.”

Netanyahu’s new term as prime minister will likely be characterized by confrontation with Iran and the U.S. over Iranian nuclear program, if a nuclear deal is struck, or more serious conflict with Iran if an agreement is not reached. Netanyahu will also confront the international community over the rights of the Palestinians to establish their own state.

Photo credit: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu after his stunning victory in Israel’s parliamentary elections. (WashPost)

Lebanese Hezbollah's retaliatory raid on IDF

Above: IDF Isuzu D-Max vehicle destroyed by Lebanese Hezbollah 9M133 Kornet anti-tank guided missile (ATGM)

On 28JAN15, in retaliation for an Israeli airstrike last week that killed six Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) fighters and an IRGC brigadier general, LH launched Operation "Statement Number One" against an Israeli Defense Force (IDF)  motorized column at Sheba Farms.

LH claims its "Quneitra martyrs of the Islamic Resistance" targeted 9 vehicles, with Israeli sources reporting the column included members of the Tzabar battalion of the Givati Brigade ("Highland Brigade”).  Israeli sources further state LH fired at least five 9M133 Kornet anti-tank guided missiles at the column. Reported IDF casualties are 2 KIA (including a company commander) and 7 WIA.

Israel responded with rocket and artillery strikes against targets along the Lebanon-Israel border, killing a UNIFIL peacekeeper from Spain.

COMMENTARY: Since the IDF strike last week that killed senior Hezbollah and Iranian military leaders, Iran and Hezbollah have publicly declared the intent to retaliate.

Judging by the results, Israel's political and military leadership have again underestimated the tactical capability of Hezbollah. (Past underestimation triggered the 2006 Lebanon War and unsuccessful outcome.)

The IDF experienced Hezbollah 9M133 Kornet ATGM fire during the 2006 Lebanon War. Curiously, despite the heightened sense of risk following last week's IDF strike at Quneitra, soft-skinned vehicles belonging to members Tzabar battalion of the Givati Brigade found themselves within range of infiltrating LH raiders.

Whatever the next moves made by Israel or the Iran-led coalition, it appears the multi-dimensional armed conflicts taking place at or about the Levant are now even more complicated.

Soft-skinned vehicles of the IDF Givati Brigade, successfully targeted during LH's Operation "Statement Number One"

File photo of a Lebanese Hezbollah 9M133 Kornet anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) system

Iran Holds West Responsible for Nuclear Talk Failure - Shamkhani

Rear Admiral Ali Shamkhani, chairman of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said today that the West would be responsible for potential failure of nuclear talks.

“Iran’s nuclear negotiations with the P5+1 serve as a test of these countries’ honesty to see how committed they are to the path of negotiations and removal of all the illegal and cruel sanctions,” Shamkhani said, referring to UN Security Council and additional U.S. and EU imposed sanctions against Iran over its nuclear program. “We will show proper reaction and take due action appropriate to the attitude and performance shown by the opposite side,” he added. (Fars New Agency, 25 January)

Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif told reporters in Tehran that if the United States wants to reach an agreement with Iran, it should atop the “dangerous game of pressuring Iran”

Iran and P5+1 will face a 1 July deadline to reach a final agreement.

In Israel, former IDF Intelligence chief Amos Yadlin, and a Labor candidate for defense minister in the upcoming elections, criticized Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s decision to speak before the U.S. Congress in March without coordinating his visit with Obama administration. Yaldin said Iran “will be stopped by action, not speeches.” (Jerusalem Post, 25 January)

Hezbollah Findings of Israeli Airstrikes that Killed Iranian General

An Iranian general killed in an Israeli airstrike last Sunday in Syria may have died because he did not turn off his cellphone. The Lebanese newspaper Al-Joumhouria reported today that a Hezbollah investigation into the strike found that IRGC Gen. Mohammad Allahdadi kept his cellphone on in a sensitive area targeted by Israeli intelligence. 11 people, including Allahdadi and senior Hezbollah commanders, Jihad Mughniyeh and Mohammas Issa, and their entourage were killed in the strike.

At the time of the attack, Gen. Allahdad and Hezbollah commanders were in the Quneitra area on the Syrian-controlled side of the Golan Heights at outposts housing a joint Iranian-Hezbollah “operations room” built recently as a command post to counter the Syrian rebel forces in the area, the paper said.

Photo credit: Lebanese TV screenshot of the convoy hit by the Israeli airstrike.

Thousands Attend the Funeral for Jihad Mughniyeh in Beirut

Tensions High, Retaliatory Response Expected

Thousands of Hezbollah supporters marched today behind the coffin of Jihad Mughniyeh killed Sunday in an Israeli airstrike in the Golan Heights. Thousands more lined streets in Beirut, in the biggest Hezbollah funeral since that of Imad Mughniyeh, Jihad’s father, in 2008.

Also killed in the airstrike were Iranian Brig. Gen. Ali Allahdadi, reportedly IRGC’s chief of intelligence in Syria, IRGC Colonel Ali Reza Tabatabai, commander of Iran’s Radwan Force in Lebanon, a Special Operations unit, and Hezbollah’s senior commander Mohamed Ahmed Issa, the organization’s operations chief in Syria. Total of twelve people, six Hezbollah and six IRGC members, were killed when their three-vehicle convoy was hit by missiles fired from two Israeli helicopters.

Jihad Mughniyeh is the most prominent Hezbollah figure killed so far in Syria. IRGC has lost a number of general officers since its involvement on the side of President Assad in the country’s civil war began in 2011.

The incident would raise tensions in an already-tense region, with Hezbollah supporters expecting a major retaliatory response against Israel.

Photo credit: Hezbollah supporters carry the coffin of Jihad Mughniyeh during his funeral in a southern Beirut suburb; 19 January 2014 (Joseph Eid/AFP)

IRGC intelligence chief among KIA by Israeli helicopter strike

Above: file photo of IRGC Brigadier General 2C Allahdadi

Iranian media reports several IRGC members were killed 18JAN15 in the Israeli helicopter strike at Quneitra, Syria that also took the lives of several Hezbollah fighters.

Iranian media identifies Allahdadi as a "retired" IRGC commander engaged as an intelligence chief in Syria. He and his fellow IRGC were attacked while their convoy was enroute from Lebanon to Syria.

Brigadier General 2C Allahdadi's past service experience included commander of the IRGC in Yazd province.

Iranian depiction is expected to portray the helicopter strike as further evidence of Israeli indirect support of ISIL and Al-Qaeda linked forces, against the Iran-led coalition supporting the Syrian Arab Republic.

Below: Iran-led coalition victims of the Israeli helicopter strike being received at the Sayed Zeynab shrine; a rallying point for the Shia component of the Iran-led coalition fighting in Syria.

Photos: Mashregh News

Jihad Mughniyeh, Military Commanders Killed in Israeli Attack

An Israeli helicopter fired two missiles at a three-vehicle convoy carrying senior members of the Lebanese Hezbollah in the Syrian province of Quneitra, near the Golan Heights, killing Jihad Moghniyeh, Mohamed Ahmed Issa and other senior members of the Hezbollah, destroying one vehicle and damaging others.

Jihad Mughniyeh was the son of Imad Mughniyeh, the military commander of the Hezbollah who was assassinated in 2008 in a car bomb to Israeli foreign intelligence. He was a rising star within Hezbollah, whose last public visit to Iran was in September 2013 to attend the funeral of the mother of the Quds Force Commander Gen. Qasem Soleimani (pictured above.) 

Issa was a senior Hezbollah military commander and head of its operations in Syria. The deaths of Jihad Mughniyeh and a senior Hezbollah commander are a serious setback for their organizations. The presence of high-ranking members of the Hezbollah near Golan might signify that they could have been in planning stages of a major operations against Israel at the border.

File photo: Jihad Mughniyeh, center, is seen behind Quds Force Commander Gen. Soleimani and other Iranian leaders at a funeral ceremony for Soleiman’s mother; September 2013 (IRNA)

Israeli Jets Strike Sites Near Damascus - UPDATE

Israeli fighter jets launched an airstrike on two military sites outside Damascus, Syria’s official SANA news agency and Hezbollah’s al-Manar TV reported Sunday. (AFP, 7 December)

The targets were military sites at Damascus’s main airport and at Dimas on a key road near the Syrian-Lebanese border.

“The Israeli enemy attacked Syria by targeting two security areas in Damascus province, namely the Dimas area and the area of Damascus International Airport,” said SANA, adding that no casualties were reported. 

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said the target at Dimas was a military position, and the strike near the airport hit a warehouse.

Comment: The Israeli attacks on a warehouse near the airport and a site in Dimas, half way between Damascus and the Lebanese border, probably point to attacks on a weapons storage warehouse near the airport and on a possible shipment of weapons en route to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran is believed to regularly ship its Fateh-110 ballistic missiles to Damascus airport for use by the Syrian military and the Hezbollah.

Photo credit: A fireball after an Israeli airstrike inside Syria; 7 December 2014 (Screen capture: Channel 2/The Times of Israel)

U.S. Condemns Khamenei’s Call for Israel’s Destruction

Secretary of State John Kerry called Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday to express his outrage at Iran’s supreme leader’s call for Israel’s destruction. Kerry called Khamenei’s recent Twitter messages on Israel “unacceptable and shocking.”

Khamenei posted comments on Twitter over the weekend saying that the “barbaric” Jewish state “has no cure but to be annihilated.”

State Department spokesperson Jen Psaki said today that the U.S. “strongly condemned” Khamenei’s statements.

“The remarks are offensive and reprehensible, and the entire international community should condemn such rhetoric,” said Psaki.

File photo: Secretary of State John Kerry (l.) and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu; Jerusalem, December 2013 (Emil Salman/Flash90/The Times of Israel)

Hezbollah Blames Israel for Killings of Nuclear Scientist Near Damascus

Five nuclear scientists were ambushed outside Damascus on Sunday and were killed by machine-gun fire while riding in a commuter van. The Lebanese Hezbollah today blamed Israel for their death. At least one of the assassinated scientists was an Iranian citizen, the Syrian state TV reported today. (McClatchy DC, 10 November)

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights described the dead as “five nuclear engineers” working at a scientific research center near the neighborhood of Barzeh, northern Damascus. The research facility in Bazreh came under rocket-propelled grenade attack in July 2013, killing at least six scientists and wounding 19, the state TV reported at the time.

Syrian officials released no details on the nationality of the other four men killed, but said the assassinated Iranian citizen was a “scientific consultant.”

“We can confirm that five scientific experts were martyred by terrorists as part of an ongoing plots of the Zionist entity (Israel),” a Hezbollah security commander said in Beirut. “We have long determined that the Zionist entity works closely with a number of the so-called rebel groups for anti-Hezbollah and anti-Syrian regime operations.” (McClatchy DC, 10 November)

File photo: Bazreh, Syria (BBC)

Crisis in U.S.-Israel Relations

White House Thinks “Chickenshit” Bibi Won’t Bomb Iran

Today, Jeffery Goldberg has written an explosive piece in the Atlantic, saying the White House does not believe Israel has the guts to bomb Iran. Goldberg, who commands vast knowledge of U.S.-Israel relationship, quotes senior officials in Obama Administration as describing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu as “chickenshit” , “coward” , and having “no guts.”

“The good thing about Netanyahu is that he’s scared to launch wars,” the official said. “The bad thing about him is that he won’t do anything to reach an accommodation with the Palestinians or with the Sunni Arab states. The only thing he’s interested in is protecting himself from political defeat… He’s got no guts,” the official said.

Another senior official describes Netanyahu as “chickenshit” on peace process, and a “coward” on the issue of Iran’s nuclear threat: Ultimately Bibi couldn’t bring himself to “pull the trigger.”

Naftali Bennett, leader of Israeli right-wing party The Jewish Home, and the country’s minister of economy said of Golberg’s piece: It proves Obama Administration plans “to throw Israel under the bus.” (Twitter/@ChemiShalev)

Barak Ravid, diplomatic correspondent for Haaretz, said: “Obama-Bibi relations have gone from very, very bad, to very, very, very bad.” (Twitter/@JeffreyGoldberg)

To read Goldberg’s piece, please click here.

Photo credit: Reuters/the Atlantic

Messages Exchanged with U.S. over ISIL - Iran

Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian was quoted today by Iranian media as saying Iran and the U.S. exchanged messages over the fight against ISIL. Abdollahian also has said that Tehran warned Washington that Israeli security will be at risk should the U.S.-led coalition seek to topple Assad in the name of fighting the ISIL. He did not elaborate on how the Israeli security would be endangered.

Iran Ordered Attack on IDF Soldiers Patrolling Israel-Lebanon Border - Report

Unnamed sources in Washington have told Kuwaiti daily Al Rai that Tuesday’s attack on Israeli forces patrolling the Israel-Lebanon border was carried out by the Lebanese Hezbollah under direct order from Iran. The paper said Iran ordered the attack in retaliation for the alleged Israeli attack on Parchin military complex on Sunday. (Jerusalem Post, 10 October)

Israel says the Hezbollah planted and detonated two bombs in the Har Dov region along the Lebanese-Israeli border on Tuesday, injuring two IDF soldiers.

The 5 October attack on Parchin caused significant damage to the facilities, with two building destroyed and a third extensively damaged; in total six building were destroyed or damaged in the explosion. Iran has indirectly implicated Israel for being behind the attack. 

File photo: IDF soldier at Har Dov border with Lebanon. Hezbollah, reportedly on orders form Iran, detonated bombs in the area, injuring two IDF soldiers on Tuesday (Photo: anmnews.com)

Parchin Explosion was Intentional Sabotage – Report

Kuwaiti newspaper Al Rai in its today’s edition quoted an unnamed senior Iranian official as saying that Sunday’s huge explosion at Parchin Armaments Complex was not a technical failure and was carried out by a foreign state with advanced intelligence capabilities, most likely meaning Israel.

“Only a foreign state with advanced intelligence capabilities could penetrate the facility and carry out an explosion like this,” said the senior Iranian official. (Al Rai, 10 October)

Commercial satellite imagery of Parchin complex obtained by Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) shows the extent of the damage.

“Two buildings that were present in August 2014 are no longer there, while a third building appears to be severely damaged. In total at least six buildings appear damaged or destroyed,” said ISIS on its website. “Several signatures that coincides with those expected from an explosion site are visible here.”

The imagery shows the section of the sprawling military complex where the explosion took place, as shown in the imagery, is not the same location within Parchin where IAEA suspects Iran had carried out explosion tests relevant to developing nuclear weapons.

Top Imagery: Before and after images showing Parchin explosion damage (Digital Globe/Airbus/ISIS)

Bottom Imagery: Site of the explosion at sprawling Parchin complex (Digital Globe/Airbus/ISIS)

(Click on photos to enlarge)

Israeli-sourced satellite imagery of Parchin explosion

Above: satellite imagery claimed by Israeli source to depict before and after 05OCT14 explosion at Parchin military compound

Israeli source Israel Defense has published satellite imagery claiming to depict aftermath evidence of 05OCT14 explosion at Parchin military compound.

According to Ronen Solomon at Israel Defense:

Satellite images of the Parchin area, to the east of Tehran, prove: the explosion reported by the Iranian media had, indeed, occurred inside the military compound in Parchin, where, according to western intelligence agencies, trials are being conducted on nuclear missile fuzes. Satellite images obtained by Israel Defense and analyzed by specialist Ronen Solomon clearly show damage consistent with an attack against bunkers in a central locality within the military research complex at the Parchin military compound.

The locality in question is situated at the center of the compound, adjacent to another installation where, according to intelligence sources, the trials being conducted involve controlled detonation of fuzes intended to serve as triggers for nuclear devices. The locality consists of a sizable testing center and what appears to be an area with bunker-shaped structures. "Before and after" images indicate that a complete section of structures was simply eliminated by an unexplained explosion.

The explosion wiped several testing units off the face of the earth while inflicting collateral damage on adjacent buildings, with traces of fire clearly visible in a section located in a sparsely afforested area.

Previously, Iranian Students’ News Agency (IRNA) reported officials at Iran’s Defense Industries Organization (DIO) statement that two people were missing after a fire erupted at an "explosive materials production unit."

Now Israeli sources are claiming a link between the Parchin military site, the 05OCT14 explosion, "nuclear missile fuzes" and an "attack."

This event and subsequent Israeli claims take place leading up to and during a time of meeting between IAEA and Iranian officials in Tehran, and upcoming P5+1 nuclear negotiations set for next week in Vienna.

Above: Israeli-sourced imagery claimed by Israeli source to depict "area of impact" from 05OCT14 explosion at Parchin military compound.

Imagery: Israel Defense