Thursday, January 24, 2013

Iranian Diplomat Offers Grim Prediction on Syria Conflict


Syria is unlikely to see peace in 2013 as the fighting in the country edges closer to civil war, Iran's ambassador to Baghdad Hassan Danaie-Far said on Thursday.
“I believe it is far-fetched,” he said when asked if he thought there could be peace in Syria this year. “It is unlikely, but we have also noted there were some signals in the past one to two months,” he added of remarks by UN peace envoy Lakhdar Brahimi which he said Iran interpreted as marking the “end of the process of military options.” (Middle East Online, 24 January)
On the question if he believed some rebels had legitimate grievances, despite the regime branding them “terrorists,” Danaie-Far said: “There are serious opponents and serious defenders and they are fighting together.”
“Not anybody who objects (to) the Syrian government is a terrorist,” he said. “But they (rebels) have created the conditions where mercenary money and weaponry are injected into Syria.”
Danaie-Far claimed that 70 percent of rebel-held territory was under the control of the jihadist Al-Nusra Front.
Meanwhile, in an interview with AFP on Thursday, Danaie-Far said Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz if “U.S. chooses war.”
The United States has nothing left to pressure Tehran over its nuclear program except for war, and if it chooses conflict Iran retained the right to close the Strait of Hormuz,” he said. (AFP, 24 January)

Photo credit: Iran's ambassador to Baghdad Hassan Danaie-Far during the interview in Baghdad. Thursday 24 January. (AFP/Middle East Online)

13 comments:

Anonymous said...

You mean over seventy thousand people have been killed in Syria and is still not classed as a civil war?
I think the "ambassador" needs a reality check as regards the CIVIL WAR in Syria.
Danaie-Far forgot to mention that Iran has only the right to close its part of the Strait of Hormuz.
And if they do,they will only cut their nose to spite their face.
It's a lose lose situation for the regime because they know they have reached the proverbial dead end.

Anonymous said...

The conflict in Syria is technically an insurgency (since many of the fighters are foreign, according to most sources). Also I fail to see how Iran has reached any dead end when it is continuing the nuclear program while still being able to sell oil to major markets such as China and India.

Anonymous said...

He's wrong and there's not 1 chance in 10 that the Assad dictatorship won't be completly gone before the end of the year.

Anonymous said...

When the oil is "bought" by countries like China it is bartered for Chinese products.Also the oil "sold" to China is "sold" at 40% of market value,yet the Chinese offload their junk to Iran at full value.
Likewise India the cheap scape country barters rice at full market value,yet Iran sells oil at 60% below market value.
This makes Iran's position in the world market very weak and open to exploitation by countries who buy our oil,knowing full well that Iran is under sanctions.
When China "buys" Iran's oil they also offload 35% of oil "bought"into the world market at full market value,therefore making a handsome profit for the Chinese.That's why the Chinese have increased the purchase of Iranian oil because no less to make huge profits for themselves with no love lost for Iran.
As you can see China and India are the new exploiters of Iran in a big way.So there goes China and India out the window.
The nuclear program has become a White Elephant for Iran.The amount of investment put into the program has been far above average and is costing Iran greatly in terms of political and economic welfare of the country.
In fact the nuclear program ironically instead of protecting the the system in the country could in fact lead to the rapid demise of it.

Mehran Ghadiri said...

The conflict in Syria is going to be a long drawn out war for sure, and it may even be Iran's Vietnam or Afghanistan, as the Iranian regime is spending what little foreign currency it has left on supporting the Syrian regime in an unwinnable war, instead of buying medicines or developing the domestic economy. Iran is already the looser regardless of the final outcome in Syria. Iran is coming under increasing pressure, whether the regime likes to admit it or not; the fact that they are admitting to setbacks in Syria suggests that the situation is way worse in actuality than even that which they admit. Even if the Assad regime falls in 2013, the civil war will go on as the Alawites, Kurds, Christians and other minorities try to carve out their own territorial enclaves in the face of reprisals and score settling from the Sunni majority and of the Salafis. Iran will be backing a side/s in that scenario too, so this war is extremely unlikely to miraculously end in 2013.

Anonymous said...

Interesting what you wrote.I was thinking in the same line as in the civil war in Syria is a kind of Vietnam or Afghanistan for Iran.With the sanctions on Iran and Iran's full support for Assad's regime the West knew was one of the ways to get even with the regime in Tehran.

Anonymous said...

Ambassador's views precisely reflect the realities of the time.
Russia, which according president of this blog - "has thrown Assad under the bus", states that the conflict will be protracted...
Russia has thousands of its citizens in Syria and currently withdrawig mainly children and women in anticipation of terrorist attack possibilities..

Any Syrian resistance lasting to the end of the 2013 year, will greatly benefit and strenghten position of the Islamic Republic. Any Assad's resistance or survival, after the 2013 will be a kind of the victory for the Islamic Republic of Iran.

A-F

Nader Uskowi said...

We may agree or disagree with Danaie-Far’s analysis. It’s important to know, however, that he speaks for Khamenei.

Anonymous said...

So that means that Danaia-Far's is a possible paid agent of Khamenei?

Anonymous said...

And the Supreme Leader Khamenei is a seasoned and wise leader in comparison to majority of any world leaders.

A-F

Anonymous said...

Ha Ha Ha!I wonder what A-F stands for?

Anonymous said...

I think he knows,LOL!

Anonymous said...

Absolutely-Full of it