Friday, November 16, 2012

Iron Dome Maneuvers--Gaza Attack

Photo source: unkown,,, 

The needles loss of life aside, the Israeli move to attack Hamas appears to serve some strategic and tactical purposes.

First and foremost, the attack on Gaza is serving as a giant maneuver to test Israeli missile defense capabilities while at the same time taking out Hamas military leadership (to cause the maximum retaliation). The Palestinian militants are predictable in that when Israel attacks they retaliate, and when Israel puts out a story that they took out most of Hamas and Islamic Jihad missile capabilities (3), they can expect the militants to show off their longest range missiles.

It should be said that the missile defense system doesn't seem too impressive, at least not to the residents of tel aviv. One medium range (by local standard) missile fired on tel aviv without being intercepted (technically that's a 0% success rate on the shahab-3 missile intercept),  (2)

On the targeted assassinations themselves, if history is to repeat itself then for every militant killed the next one to replace him will likely be more militant and a garanteed staunch enemy of Israel.

The other objective, or unexpected bonus, was creating the circumstance for the new regime in Egypt to send its PM to tel aviv, which is a big political milestone since the revolution. Israel also used the opportunity to show the Egyptians respect by announcing a cease fire during the PM visit (which didn't hold). (1) The withdrawal of ambassador is a minor side show at this point.

Israel has created the circumstances where the new Egyptian regime, and the average Egyptian, can come to appreciate that a relationship with Israel is necessary to advance the Palestinian cause. Ironic but true. This can be a win win for Israel and Egypt, Egypt can be the hero for stopping the fighting and Israel starts a new chapter with Egypt based on mutual interests, rather than outside pressure.

For the government of Israel the sirens in tel aviv last night (see video below) must have been the worst moment and a major setback which is likely to hurt them on Election Day.

Like any war, this mini war comes with a sobering new understandings; If Hamas rockets can get through, then so will the Iranian rockets and in larger numbers. That alone might delay the war with Iran a few more months.

(A sidenote, if islamic Jihad managed to smuggle in medium range missiles then it stands to reason that the same shipments might have included surface to air missiles.)



Anonymous said...

Can anyone distinguish what is actually going on in this clip? I'm guessing those bright lights are some sort of countermeasure since they originate from the ground in Tel Aviv. Perhaps Mark could inform us of what is happening?

Mark Pyruz said...

Actually Jabbar, this situation has more to do with Israeli domestic politics and their election than anything else.

Yossarian said...

Jabbar, you are seriously ruining this blog, by trying to pass yourself off as some kind of military expert. Your articles are so filled with holes, as to be pointless to read. It's pathetic and embarrassing for you.

Now tell me smart guy...Why would "Iron Dome" be contrasted in it's defensive capabilities against a Shahab-3 MRBM, when it's design, purpose and function is specifically NOT to engage that type of target? It was built to nail Katyushas out of the sky. Glorified bottle rockets! Not intercept missiles returning from the edge of space! The Israelis rely on their Arrow system, as well as Patriots for that kind of entirely different work.

Now, please. I found this blog via the ACIG Forum about two years back. Talk politics all you want, but the more you try and pass yourself as some diehard armchair general, the less readers you are going to have. It is simply a waste to time to read what you have to say on such matters. You know much to little, and lack the qualifications. You come across as a virgin, in a room full of "adults."

Unknown said...

Isreali motivation in attacking Gaza is a "Political" issue, and the general military aspect of this issue is not exclusive to self proclaimed "experts" on either side.

Point taken about the various roles of the Isaeli defense systems, but don't you think that the point still stands that the last three days demonstrated that Israel missile defenses are not protecting Israeli cities from medium range missiles?

I'm sure if the rockets fired on tel Aviv and jerusalem were shut down it would have been louded as a major success by all, "experts" and non-experts.

In any case, I hope you enjoy both sides of the argument raised in this blog and triggered by pieces like this. I'm sure when there are military details missing, you and others "experts" will step in and set the record straight.

Anonymous said...

Israel blasted Hezbollah drone out of the sky.
Israel missile blasted Hamas missile out of sky.

So Israel 2

Hezbollah and Hamas 0


Unknown said...

@anon 7:15

It's hard to keep the propaganda from both sides in prospective. Do you have any info on the shoot down rate of the medium range missiles (the handful that were fired in the direction of tel aviv and Jerusalem? I still think none were shot own, am I wrong?

I'm giving the over 80% success rate against the short range missiles the benefit of the doubt, but that's not what Iran would be firing in the event of war. Israelis should be very interested in the medium range, Iranian made, missile shoot down rate.

Stay safe.

Anonymous said...


Of course Israel is interested in the Iranian made MRBM.
It will be very unfortunate if the regime in Tehran would use such a missile against the state of Israel.
And of course Israel can't stand idly by and take the one way traffic coming from Tehran.
As you are well aware Israel has the capability to unfortunately level certain installations throughout Iran without a single Israeli airplane involved.
But I hope that event doesn't arise and cooler heads prevail.
I believe you and the Iranian people want democracy in your nation,which we fully support.
We must not let the enemies of democracy cause rifts between our peoples by diverting our attention away from Syria and Hezbollah's failures in Lebanon and throughout the Arab street.

We are safe.I hope that applies to the ordinary citizens of Iran as well.