‘Will Raze Tel Aviv, Haifa’ if Attacked – Iran Defense Minister

Reaction to IDF Chief Saying Israel Will Act As and When Necessary

Iran’s Defense Minister Brig. Gen. Ahmad Vahidi said today during the National Artesh (Army) Day that Israeli threats against Iran are worthless and Iran is capable to “raze Tel Aviv and Haifa to the ground” if attacked. Vahidi was echoing the threat against the Israeli cities that was originally made by Ayatollah Khamenei in March.

“The constant threats by the Zionist regime against Iran are worthless, and they cannot do anything against our nation because they know that any measure will lead them to full annihilation,” Gen. Vahidi said. “They know that if they do a damn thing, the Islamic Republic will raze Tel Aviv and Haifa to the ground.” (IRNA/Press TV, 18 April)

Iranian Army Commander Major General Ataollah Salehi also said during the Artesh Day that if the Israelis try “to commit a folly and implement their threat against Iran, we will not hesitate” to respond.

During Israel’s Independence Day celebrations on Tuesday, Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon and IDF Chief of General Staff Benny Gantz said Israel could defend itself against any threat, and — if it needed to — would also act against Tehran’s nuclear program. (The Times of Israel)

“The Iranian challenge is very significant and we must approach it with a responsible long-term strategy. We will do what is necessary when it is necessary,” Gen. Gantz had said. (Army Radio/The Times of Israel)

File photo: Iran’s Defense Minister Brig. Gen. Ahmad Vahidi (AP)

Iran Military Prepared to Deliver ‘Swift Response’ if Israel Attacks - Hejazi

Brig. Gen. Mohammad Hejazi, deputy chief of staff of Iran's Armed Forces, said today the Iranian military is prepared to deliver a swift response to any attempted attack by Israel.

 
“The Armed Forces are completely ready to act according to what the (Supreme) Leader said in his remarks in the shortest possible time,” Gen. Hejazi sais. (Fars News Agency/Press TV, 15 April)

In its report of Hejazi’s remarks on its Website, Press TV reminded the readers that in his new year message on 21 March, Ayatollah Khamenei had said “Iran would raze Tel Aviv and Haifa to the ground if Israel attempts a military strike against the Islamic Republic.”

File photo: Iranian Navy patrol force vessel Gorz (P228) fires a Mehrab (Altar) missile during the Velayat-90 naval drills in the Strait of Hormuz on January 1, 2012. (IRNA/Press TV)

Iron Dome Success over Tel Aviv--11/17/2012

Source: AP

As expected, the first shoot down of a medium range (by local standards) missile over Tel Aviv was widely (sometimes wildly) celebrated. I don't mean to rain on the parade, but i still see this as the first successful shoot down of a mid-range missile by any of Israel's defence systems. I'm sure the military "experts" here will be indignant that I'm the one to point that out, but I consider it pointing out the obvious, subject to corrections of course. 

Based on my scan of print media, and being very conservative with the numbers (i.e. 3 instead of 5 missiles in Tel Aviv), the total Mid-range missiles fired on Tel Aviv and Jerusalem so far were 2 on Jerusalem and 3 on Tel Aviv, with one shoot down (If anyone has different, but verifiable, numbers please feel free to correct me).  (1,2,3)

Based on these preliminary numbers, the shoot down rate is one in five, in other words a 20% success rate against Mid-range missiles; This is by any of Israel's missile defence systems, and not just Iron dome.

If and when war breaks out between Israel and Iran, Israel will not be facing a short range missile issue from Iran, but rather a mid-range, and long range missiles, including ones from Hezbollah. 

We'll probably hear and read more about this once the likely Egyptian cease fire becomes a reality, and the "circle the wagons" mode gives way to post-war objective analysis. If the Israeli military concludes that the defence system(s) are not ready to face the Iranian (longer range) missiles then that should make an imminent attack against Iran less likely, and that should be of interest to many. Keep in mind that at least one new system is reported to become operational no sooner than 2014 (see article below).

  

Below is a link to an AP article posted by the NY Times about the Iron dome system. It provides good general information and background. Again, military "experts" here must forgive the lack of details, I'm sure the writer didn't intend it for the generals who frequent this site.

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2012/11/17/world/middleeast/ap-ml-israel-palestinians-iron-dome.html?ref=news

References:

(1)http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/15/palestinians-israel-idUSL5E8MFKWO20121115

(2)http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/16/jerusalem-air-raid-sirens_n_2144268.html

(3) see above video  (it shows two missiles, one hit, one shoot down).

Iron Dome Maneuvers--Gaza Attack

Photo source: unkown, worl.time.com, heraldsun.com.au, 

The needles loss of life aside, the Israeli move to attack Hamas appears to serve some strategic and tactical purposes.

First and foremost, the attack on Gaza is serving as a giant maneuver to test Israeli missile defense capabilities while at the same time taking out Hamas military leadership (to cause the maximum retaliation). The Palestinian militants are predictable in that when Israel attacks they retaliate, and when Israel puts out a story that they took out most of Hamas and Islamic Jihad missile capabilities (3), they can expect the militants to show off their longest range missiles.

It should be said that the missile defense system doesn't seem too impressive, at least not to the residents of tel aviv. One medium range (by local standard) missile fired on tel aviv without being intercepted (technically that's a 0% success rate on the shahab-3 missile intercept),  (2)

On the targeted assassinations themselves, if history is to repeat itself then for every militant killed the next one to replace him will likely be more militant and a garanteed staunch enemy of Israel.

The other objective, or unexpected bonus, was creating the circumstance for the new regime in Egypt to send its PM to tel aviv, which is a big political milestone since the revolution. Israel also used the opportunity to show the Egyptians respect by announcing a cease fire during the PM visit (which didn't hold). (1) The withdrawal of ambassador is a minor side show at this point.

Israel has created the circumstances where the new Egyptian regime, and the average Egyptian, can come to appreciate that a relationship with Israel is necessary to advance the Palestinian cause. Ironic but true. This can be a win win for Israel and Egypt, Egypt can be the hero for stopping the fighting and Israel starts a new chapter with Egypt based on mutual interests, rather than outside pressure.

For the government of Israel the sirens in tel aviv last night (see video below) must have been the worst moment and a major setback which is likely to hurt them on Election Day.

Like any war, this mini war comes with a sobering new understandings; If Hamas rockets can get through, then so will the Iranian rockets and in larger numbers. That alone might delay the war with Iran a few more months.

(A sidenote, if islamic Jihad managed to smuggle in medium range missiles then it stands to reason that the same shipments might have included surface to air missiles.)

reference:

(1)http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/16/us-palestinians-israel-ceasefire-attacks-idUSBRE8AF0EP20121116

(2)http://www.fas.org/programs/ssp/man/militarysumfolder/shahab-3.html

(3)http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4305559,00.html

US and Israel to Push for Iran’s Financial Isolation

US Treasury official Stuart Levy met with Israeli foreign minister Tzipi Livini in Tel Aviv this week to review their joint efforts in financially isolatate of Iran. Some of the world’s major financial institutions have already severed ties with Iran. The German banking powerhouse, Deutche Bank, was the latest among major European banks to stop doing business with Iran last week.

Levy, who carries the hefty title of Under Secretary of Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence, was in Berlin in late July for meetings with German officials on the country’s business ties to Iran. Germany will also be suspending its export insurance coverage for Iran. Without such coverage, German manufacturers will be forced to give up all future contracts with Iran.

Levy’s work is conducted outside the framework of the UN Security Council sanctions against Iran and is intended to bypass China’s growing reluctance to support further sanctions against Iran over its nuclear program. China is growing its already-huge volume of trade with Iran and seems not willing to support a third round of UN sanctions against Iran.

There are, however, strong signs that the powerful bazaaris and businessmen in Iran are extremely concerned about Levy’s efforts which have practically cut them off from the world’s financial markets. Their personal wealth has also been affected. The European banks are increasingly asking their major Iranian accountholders to close their accounts in their banks. Dubai banks are reportedly considering to do same. The wealthy Iranians who do not possess any dual citizenship are facing a difficult time to find a secure place to invest or park their cash.

Israeli foreign minister spokesman Mark Regev said before Levy/Livini meeting got underway that Iran must understand that business as usual cannot continue while it is pursuing its nuclear program.