The International Monetary Fund today released its report on the recent economic conditions in Iran.
“Macroeconomic performance worsened markedly following the implementation of the subsidy reform in late 2010 and the intensification of sanctions in 2012.
“Since the Presidential election in mid-2013, there have been some signs of stability,” the report said.
Following are the report’s highlights:
- The economy contracted by 5.8 percent in 2012/13 (Iranian calendar year 1391). In 2013/14, it is estimated that the economy contracted by 1.7 percent. The economic activity, however, would begin to stabilize in 2014/15, with the GDP projected to grow 1-2 percent. However, the current outlook remains uncertain and subject to downside risks.
- The 12-month inflation rose from about 12 percent in late 2010 to around 45 percent in July 2013. But after the Central Bank of Iran (CBI) tightened credit to the banking system, putting a lid on money growth, inflation began to decline and stood at 29 percent in January 2014, with the estimated inflation rate at the end of 2013/14 period (March 2014) standing at 22 percent.
- Unemployment was at 12.2 percent in 2011/12 and 2012/13, but it is estimated that it rose to 12.9 percent in 2013/14.
- Narrow money (M1) declined from $29.1 billion in 2012/13 to an estimated $20.5 billion in 2013/14. Broad money (M2) declined from $30.6 billion to $24.9 billion in the same periods.
- Gross official reserves of CBI rose from $104.4 billion in 2012/13 to an estimated $107.7 billion in 2013/14.
- Crude oil exports decreased from 2.5 million bpd in 2011 to about 1 million bpd in 2013.
To read the entire IMF report, please click here.