Sunday, November 11, 2012

IMF Reports on Iran Economy

Small Contraction and Rising Inflation in 2012

The Iranian economy has shown a small contraction because of oil sanctions whose impact is spilling over into other sectors, the IMF said today. The projection also shows rising inflation in the country.

“The projection that we have shows small contraction in Iran economy during 2012 ... and an increase in inflationary pressure in the same period,” said the IMF’s director of Middle East and Central Asia, Masood Ahmed. (AFP, 11 Novemebr)

Mr. Ahmed made the remarks during his presentation of IMF’s Regional Economic Outlook on Sunday in Dubai. The contraction will be just under 1 percent in 2012.

“This deterioration reflects both lower oil production, which is in part because of the external constraints and the spillover impact of that on the rest of the economy,” Ahmed said.

IMF estimated
Iran’s oil exports to have dropped to 1.25 million bpd this year compared with 2.14 million bpd last year.

Mr. Ahmed added, however, some sectors of the Iranian economy, such as agriculture, have done well. Iran, he pointed out, is not as dependent on oil as other oil exporting countries, with agriculture contributing some 10 percent of the GDP. He cautioned, however, that his projections have not
take into account the sharp depreciation in Iran's currency, the rial.

“These projections were done before the very significant depreciation of the currency and the related increased uncertainty, which will likely have a further negative impact on the economic performance in the year ahead,” Ahmed said.

The IMF put Iran’s inflation this year at 25.2 percent, compared with 21.5 percent last year.


Anonymous said...

Small contraction,LOL?!

If you call half output of oil export a small contraction,then what is a big contraction,LOL?!

Inflation is much higher than 25.2 percent.More like 45 percent and 20 percent since last year.

Anonymous said...

Even under the stringest US/Zionist sanctions Iran's resilient economy will grow over 3% even by the estimation of Zionist institutions like IMF/World bank. Iran has indeed proved very robust and self-reliant. The luxury imports are the only ones affected by inflation and their impact is mostly on a small corrupt westernisized class in North Tehran who drive expensive foreign cars and use imported cosmetics.

The reality is that most ordinary patriotic Iranians will override these impotent US/Zionist attempts to subdue Iran's peaceful nuclear program. Cuba and North Korea with almost no natural resources have successfully overcome these type of patthetic sanctions for over half a century. Iran will never yield to foreign thugs and pressure. The situation during the jange-tahmili was far worse and Iran endured. Iran Payendebad.

Nader Uskowi said...

Anon 10:36 PM,

Either you are living in a universe parallel to mine, or you do not want accept facts. Iran’s economy is in contraction, and things will get worst in the coming months. You might argue that it is worth it, because you can show the world that you are capable of building a bomb. But you cannot talk with both sides of your mouth. If you really believe that Iran needs to have the bomb, then don’t hide behind attacking the West for saying so, but if you believe that Iran is not after making the bomb, then you need to accept the fact that the present policies of the Islamic Republic can lead to the bankruptcy of Iran’s economy.

Anonymous said...

In your usual anti-Iran dementia you failed to mention or have not even read the full IMF report which clearly states that within the top 20 global economies by PPP, Iran has leveraged its natural carbon resources to create a diversified and high-tech economy that has proven resilient in times of uncertainty in the global energy and financial markets as well as sanctions pressures. Iran's FOREX holding is in excess of $150 billion and is also supported by a sanctions busting contingency fund of over $60 billion. Iran has stored enough staples to last 2 years.

Wishful thinking is no substitute for logic. Believe me and as time will tell, Iran is not about to fold at any level. It's trade with Asia alone is pushing $120 billion and there is a robust import substitution program (Khod Kafei).

Iran is showing exceptional results in its diversification policies through an overhauled FDI framework and banking and insurance laws, aimed at lowering the effect of global oil price fluctuations on the economy and is investing heavily in domestic substitution. It today is a net exported of POL (petroleum, oil and lubricants). The so-called much healded refining collapse touted by itsenemies simply did not happen, did it? You self-hating exiles need to get a grip. LOL.

Anonymous said...

Does anyone have the full report?

Anonymous said...

The full report is on IMF website. It is an upbeat report on Iran's economy despite the sanctions.

The International Monetary Fund gave a rosy portrayal of Iran's economy in a report issued Monday, saying it grew by 3.2 % in 2011 and predicts a mild slow-down and then an accelerated pick-up at the end of 2013, contradicting its earlier assessment and surprising Iran analysts who contend that the economy is shrinking. It also gives high marks for the slow erosion of subsidies introduced by the government to control the budget and inflationary pressures.