Monday, October 1, 2012

Rial @ 35,000

Iranian National Currency Sinking Rapidly

Rial lost 16% of its value overnight and was trading at 35,000 rials to the dollar on Monday. The currency exchange shops in Tehran have started to close early today after running out of dollars. A large group of buyers and spectators have now gathered on Manoochehri Road and Istanbul Square, where the currency exchange shops are located.  


Kemjika said...

lets be honest- its not only the Iranian govt's actions that are causing this high price for dollars in Iran. the Iranian masses are also increasing the price for dollars with their mad,crazed frenzy over "dollars". the dollar is a currency with its own issues and its losing leverage as the days go by. america's fiscal cliff is coming and the dollar will soon take is own fall sooneror later. but why should Iranians feed this unecessary frenzy??

Nader Uskowi said...


People are not mad or crazy about the dollar. They are sad and angry that their national currency and their life savings have been hit so hard and their income cannot cope with the resulting skyrocketing prices. I guess you need to live in a society with its national currency losing 15% of its value overnight to understand people’s anxiety.

Anonymous said...

Kemjika,are you suggesting that the Iranian people should be lumbered with the worthless local currency?

Believe me you would do the same thing as them and rather put up with the dollar and its "issues" any day.

Anonymous said...

this is a remarkable plummet and indicative of an enormous fear of the immediate future on the part of the citizenry

Anonymous said...

Wrong again,
Its all about imports and exports.
Sombodys doctrine is being implemented.
We'll see if it works in 6 to 12 months.
Menatime idiots should rejoice thinking its sanctions and stuff.

Maryama (Lego Lamco) said...

Thank you Nader Uskowi for your clarification! Those who do not understand the distiction between the govt and people of Iran constantly draw the conclusion of crazed and frezied based on their shallow understanding of the anger and lack of trust which have been induced into the masses over the years of oppression.
We need websites like yours!

Nader Uskowi said...

Anon 11:40 AM,

I certainly hope you are not advising the Iranian government on how to cope with the downward spiral of the rial. Certainly hope you are not that “somebody” whose doctrine is being implemented!

The government needs to take immediate action, something that has been conspicuously lacking during the currency crisis that started last Monday and getting worse by the hour, and it doesn’t have the luxury of waiting for another 6-9 months, as you are apparently suggesting here.

The facts are that the currency has lost more than two-thirds of its values in less than a year, and in a country dependent so much on imported goods the loss in currency value has meant skyrocketing prices. People with rial-denominated savings have lost considerably, and people with fixed income cannot cope with inflation. This is an economic crisis of first order and the economy will be on the verge of collapse if the government cannot reverse the course.

And reversing the course requires political courage by the Iranian senior leadership. The root cause of the problem is Iran’s increasing global isolation and the rupture of its ties to the financial world. The Iranian government needs to come to terms with its adversaries and re-evaluate the benefits and the liabilities of maintaining its current nuclear program. Keeping uranium enrichment at the current level, both volume and purity wise, does not require “sacrifice” or “surrender,” but could be the basis of a compromise to bring back a sense of peace and stability to the region and to the country.

Anonymous said...

They have never thought (how stupid !) that their (reactionary) anti-western rhetoric and policy have any consequences; some of them have even begun to believe in their own lies and thought they could get away with everything; instead of taking responsibility, they tried to keep the appearance ; now they face a political, ideological and economical defeat at once; their house of cards have crashed and there is no way for them to return the situation without changing the fundamentals - that is their nightmare coming true; change will enter into their world, which is actually a ridiculous bubble and burst it; either they embrace the change along the lines outlines by Mr. Uskowi or they will wiped of the map of history

TLAM Strike said...

News tip for you Nader and the Uskowi on Iran team.

Ahmadinejad's cameraman defects:

Anonymous said...

The sinking of the Iranian currency is the result of the success of the Islamic republics independent industrial and economic policies in the past 34 years.
They have successfully managed to cut Iran's dependents on oil and are in the cusp of selling Iran's industrial products to eager world market gagging for Iranian made vehicles.
The Islamic republic will soon overtake the US and China in military power and will be taking over the mantle of leadership of the world soon after they put a man on mars by 2020.
This shows how mighty the Islamic republic has become,thanks to the very wise and thoughtful leadership that we are so lucky to have.

Signed:Kook from Cuckoo land.

Sanford said...

Currency crisis often is the result of a government's pursuit of misguided or failed policy for an extended period of time. If Iran's leadership was sound and competent, such currency collapse would not be witnessed (or even possible via attack as some like to suggest) strong central government and sound economic policy is unassailable... something Iranian citizens do not enjoy presently... Iranian citizens are the son being punished for the sins of the father...

I would very much like to see Iranians prosper, however, the regime is focused on following Pakistan's path to nuclear weapons...always just one screw away from full assembly Iran was on its way to advancing progressive thinking and industrial strength, no it is moving toward isolation... and decline. It is not the citizens fault, however they do own some responsibility for allowing themselves to be governed in such a manner.

Iran almost joined the first world, now it is drifting with North Korea into isolation.

Anonymous said...

@TLAM Strike

Beware of this fellow! For all we know, he could be a spy masquerading as a defector.

Anonymous said...

145Maryama 11:51AM

You have forgotten to state that a nation in order to exist has to make sacrifices from a time to a time.

Have you finished your long vacations or training?


Anonymous said...

Nader Uskowi 12:41PM

In response to the part of your conclusions that:
"Iranian government needs to come to terms with its adversaries.."
I personally would reverse that conclusion to state that:
"Adversaries of Iran need to come to terms with Iran".

Analyzing history of all problems between two sides, the adversaries are to blame first for present and previous situations.
The adversary's goal is not a cooperation but the strategy for a regime change.

The best example could be the failed nuclear deal with the North Korea, where Bush ostensibly rejected a compromise and demanded further concessions. Around the same time, when Mr Khatami attempted an approachment with adversaries, he was ridiculed the same way like North Korea was.
In every stage of previous and present negotiations adversaries tried to gain everything possible without substantial concessions. It was; like one Iranian scholar and former representative described. that the West is going to exchange "peanuts for diamonds".

Therefore I still suspect that the real reason of hostilities is a plan for "regime" change and the rest is a pretext.

Iran have recently made a good proposal "suspension of the 20% enrichment in exchange for lifting of the sanctions" and that situation will uncover true intensions of Iran's adversaries.


Nader Uskowi said...


Iran does not have the luxury of time to prove to the world that the real motivation of the West is a regime change. It needs to take the West’s declarations that they recognize the country’s rights to peaceful nuclear energy on its face value and make proposals that would maintain its uranium enrichment program at a purity level and quantities needed for power plants and research only.

Iran is not doing that. It has embarked on an open-ended enrichment program, both on purity level of the end product and on its quantity. Insistence on enriching unlimited amount of uranium at purity levels not justified for use in a single existing research reactor can only mean that the country is at minimum positioning its nuclear program on a so-called Japan option, all but building the actual bomb, or at maximum working on building the bomb. If these two options are not considered, then insistence to add to so much enriched uranium already in its inventory, and at purity not needed for current peaceful purposes by its nuclear industry, is pure stupidity. If those options, however, are pursued then we are in for a long period of tensions, well into 2013, that could bring the danger of the collapse of the country’s economy and God forbid the possibility of military conflict.

The choices are real. The time is not on the side of the Iranian government in this showdown with the West. Notwithstanding other historical examples mentioned in your message, it is the Iranian government that needs to make the first bold move to bring sanity back to the current tense situation. The alternatives are not really all that pretty!

Anonymous said...

Nader Uskowi 8:57AM

I have delayed my response and there are already information that the US is not willing to accept recent Iranian proposal that for suspension of the 20% enrichment, the West will have to lift gradually all sanctions.

Therefore situation of the NK's negotiations comes to the mind, where the West assumed that after the death of the NK Kim Il Sung, the regime will collapse, so they do not have to worry about implementation of the previously agreed "Agreed Framework" agreement.

In the light of those events your statements; in my believes, are too controversial, because Iran has no other choice; where the West openly declares that it waits for sanctions to undermine the system, as to take an advantage of some detterents it already possesses.

These detterents are as follows:
-US is in an election period and has to wait for election's results to determine final details of policies by present or new administration. That gives Iran some extra time...
- Because conflict in Syria is not determined yet, that complicates planning of an attack
- without ground invasion Iran can withdraw from the NPT, and continue works without any control
- Russia will not be obliged to respect sanctions against Iran in the light of an unilateral action (war)
-there will be significant cost of military action to the West and casualties as well as a loss of military and technological secrets.
-there will be very negative impact on western economies...
-to organize any land invasion, a lengty time is needed
- any internal opposition inside of Iran will be annihilated
- society will be more unified against the West
- Russia may not cooperate with the West in other areas
- Russia may enter and expand its influence in Iran (because a reconstruction after destruction)

Because above constraints, your conclusion that Iran has no too strict.

Iran already managed to extended time; through skilled negotiations, and further extensions (delays) will primarily benefit Iranian side, where it can further develop its air defences and other arms.
Every delay of military actions against Iran will rise a price to be paid by aggressors and Russia also takes advantage from those delays to advance improvements of its military.

Because all those complications for the West and rising levels of Iran's military preparadness as well as the Russia's factor, the West very soon may not have sufficient ability to carry out its threats...without serious and acceptable damages.