Thursday, May 13, 2010

Brazil President To Visit Tehran: Compromise on Nuclear Program?

By Nader Uskowi

Brazilian President Lula da Silva will arrive in Tehran on Saturday on a state visit. Lula is scheduled to meet Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and President Ahmadinejad. He will also give the keynote speech at G15 summit held this year in Tehran.

The Iranian media is playing up the economic and commercial importance of the visit. IRNA is reporting that Lula and Ahmadinejad and their ministers will sign 17 agreements on bilateral economic and commercial cooperation. There are no mentions as of yet of any political issues on the agenda when the Brazilian president meets Ayatollah Khamenei and President Ahmadinejad.

Notwithstanding the coverage in the Iranian media, it is certain that the most critical topic of discussion between President Lula and Ayatollah Khamenei would be Iran’s uranium enrichment program. Brazil currently holds one of non-permanent seats at the UN Security Council that is expected to pass a new round of sanctions against Iran over its enrichment program. The Brazilian president will be trying to pull off an eleventh-hour compromise by Iran so the country can avoid further sanctions.

It looks, however, that any serious compromise to avoid sanction would invariably require Iran to ship out most of its current stockpile of enriched uranium, albeit to a more friendly country like Turkey or Brazil (the Turkish president will also be arriving in Tehran during the weekend and will meet Ayatollah Khamenei.) It is doubtful, however, that the Iranian leader could politically take the risks involved in such compromise. The Iranian public has been for long fed the official line of no shipping out of the country’s enriched uranium; it does not expect it, and probably would not accept it.

The leadership has put itself in an unenviable situation. Accept the compromise and be seen by the public as surrendering to foreign powers, or stay the course and invite the fourth round of sanctions, voted in by countries like China and Russia, supposedly Iran’s main allies among the major powers. But Khamenei does not seem to be in the mood for even an appearance of surrender.


Anonymous said...

The leadership has put itself in an unenviable situation. Accept the compromise and be seen by the public as surrendering to foreign powers
By public do you mean the handful of "Green supporters"? I think the majority of Iranian will agree to this transfer especially if it is blessed by Brazil and Turkey.

Nader Uskowi said...


Compromise is not what the public hear from their president and their supreme leader, even if blessed by Brazil and Turkey. And I guess I am missing your point on Green supporters. Are you saying they want no compromise with the West and would like to see the enrichment program to continue unabated? If so, that's an interesting perspective on the current state of politics in the country. Please feel free to elaborate on it.

Anonymous said...

As I see it, Iran will get what it wants, but the west is gonna stumble at the permission of Anglo Zionist lobbys, when the delivery is to materialize.

The west had no plans and has no plans to deliver anything to Iran. Iran will get the recognition in displaying the unreliability of the west, but this has to be reflected by the press, and the press belongs to west too.. so it wont get anywhere...

Iran is best advised to go its own way, Iranians in western countries are more worried about the western displeasure, than Iranians inside. Some of us have been too long away form our motherland and have forgotten, what it means to be Iranians... (no offence meant)

We have to do it all ourselves, nobody will scratch Irans back except the Iranians inside Iran.

Bless them and good luck to them

Anonymous said...

Brazil itself has a very active nuclear program and Russia today announced plans to build a nuclear plant in Turkey, so Iran should continue with its own nuclear program. The US and Zionists are not in a position to do much as power has shifted to Asia. The US economy is in tatters, and even the bank of England predicted the US will most likely go down the economic collapse path like Greece and EU. Starting a potential suicidal WW3 is simply not on the cards. The puny Zionist entity is all psy-ops and hot air. So I agree, Iran needs to stay resolute and safeguard its own national interests. The train of hollow threats left the station in 1979. I don't believe even the most insane Zionist warmonger or AIPAC can push the US into a completely suicidal "attack" on Iran. The $500a barrel cost of oil from such a misadventure would bring millions of Americans out in the streets ala Greece. US real unemployment rate is already over 20%, housing foreclosures are highest in history and over 30 million Americans are on food stamps, not to mention the $14 TRILLION plus national debt. A war with Iran is the last think the US can afford or survive.

Nader Uskowi said...

Anon 5:34,

When it comes to questions of sanctions and hostilities, the Iranians need to look at the issues from the viewpoint of their own national interest. Hostilities with the West is not in Iran's national interests, no matter if it is supported by the radical elements in the Arab and Muslim world. Iran should not be in the business of teaching others a lesson; the best lesson learned from the previous war is to use diplomacy aggressively to prevent hostilities.

Anon 2:51,

No offense taken. Those who have experienced the 8-year war and the misery it brought to Iran and Iraq, notably more than a million citizens of the two countries killed and many more injured, are responsible enough not to look after another conflict. Diplomacy is not a game of saying no; it is finding the best solution out of worst circumstances. A swap of enriched uranium was possibly a good solution.

Anonymous said...

It is quite disingenuous to somehow believe in the current hype and false US and Zionist propaganda that Iran is somehow itching for a fight or destabilizing the region. The glaring reality is that the Iranian nuclear program is completely legitimate and within the ambit of NPT. It is ironic that the nascent Iranian nuclear program was initiated by the US itself under the "Atoms for Peace Program" when Iran was ruled by a puppet regime. The construction of Bushere was basically a European initiative with both Germans and French vying for Iranian business. Even the short lived Ford administration was pushing US nuclear technology on Iran till 1976. The simple factual reality is that the current brouhaha over Iran's nuclear program has more to do with US policies in the region and the maintenance of Zionist hegemony. Even if Iran scrapped the nuclear program completely overnight, the US would come up with some other unacceptable humiliating demand. The Zionist entity is the only self-acknowledged nuclear armed actor in the region, and is a non-NPT signatory and has never been required to show any transparency over Dimona or its 200 nuclear warhead stockpile. These disgraceful double standards and hypocricy of the self-described "world community" is not lost on most rational people.

US hostility towards Iran dates back to the 1979 revolution and the loss of the Iranian gas station and a puppet "regional pillar". The Iraqi invasion of Iran with total US, European and Arab vassal regimes backing was part of the regional masterplan and neo-con "full spectrum domination" delusion. Iran in the last 200 years has never initiated hostilities towards any nation in the region and has itself been a victim of invasion, Wahabbi terror and daily US/Zionist threats. So it is quite shameful that Iran is being painted as a "threat" while the opposite is true. No Iranian with an iota of common sense would want hostilities or war with the US, however, contrary to current US propaganda, Iran will not be a pushover either if the improbable did occur. It is best for all sides, particularly the US to work through diplomatic channels in establishing some sort of detente with Iran and not be goaded by the Zionists and AIPAC into a totally counter-productive zero sum game. Iranian have endured 8 years of a very brutal conflict and are fully cognizant of the horrendous consequences of another conflict. However, it is the US that should not get carried away with warmongering considering its regional. economic and social abyss. Starting wars is easy, ending them is much more difficult, especially when the world is in a historic geo-political powershift to China and Asia and global economic realignment.

Nader Uskowi said...

The nuclear agreement reached on Sunday in Tehran will go a long way to ease tensions in the region. It was a courageous compromise by the iranian leadership, and I believe it was a good decision.

Anonymous said...

As expected the US/Zionist agenda is different and they will never accept a rational peaceful diplomatic solution. The US which has egg on its face after the Turkish/Brazilian initiative is now once again trying to derail any peaceful resolution by introducing another UNSC resolution. This spoiler sorry loser behavior by the US once again proves that its unrelenting hostility to Iran has nothing to do with the nuclear program but it is all about following the Zionist dictates and regional hegemony in a changing global order. Hillary owes her very incompetent existence to her Zionist Scarsdale/West Chester constituency. If anyone had any illusions about the US/Zionist agenda should take the rose colored glasses off now. It is unfortunate that US behavior is akin to a spoilt ten year juvenile delinquint bully who has just lost his marbles to the new kids on the block. Stay tuned the Iran saga has long way to go yet.