Saturday, May 28, 2011

Growing Criticism and Threats Against Ahmadinejad

Hojatoleslam Ali Saeedi, Supreme Leader’s representative at IRGC, said today in Tehran that Ahmadinejad's government is infiltrated by “corrupt elements” and urged the Iranian president to return to the “right path.” He threatened Ahmadinejad that he would be dealt with if he continues crossing “red lines.”

“Unfortunately the government is inflicted by a great calamity, which is the presence of corrupt elements,” Saeedi said [Mehr News Agency, 28 May].

“I hope Ahmadinejad will turn back to the main path, having seen this much reaction from the people and from close confidantes… If a body like the executive or parliament wants to cross red lines or violate principles, it is the leadership that will warn them and, if ultimately the warnings are not effective, will confront them,” Saeedi added.

Saeedi’s harsh words and threatening language against Ahmadinejad and his supporters, the so-called “deviationists,” were a clear sign that Khamenei and the ruling clerics were paving the way to dump him as president unless he breaks away from Mashaie and company.


Anonymous said...

This internal factional debate within the IRI is a reflection of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's strive for a more EXECUTIVE type Presidency than being a mere figurehead for the clergy like Khatami before. It also signifies a post-Khamenei vision of Iran and internal debate about the future.

There is a clear lack of understanding of Iranian political dynamics in the west, and perhaps some bizarre wishful thinking by those who periodically have been predicting and end to the IRI for the last 32 years (just like an imminent attack by US/Zionists LOL).

The basic reality is that Iranian hybrid democracy is going through growing pains and consolidation. This normal process has been expedited by the strong, pugnacious ultra nationalist type views of Ahmadinejad who has merely accelerated the debate on the future political set-up of Iranian government and policies as well as the limits of Rahbar's powers in the Velayet e Faqih system.

The second-term election of Ahmadinejad has given more impetus to reform than a Mousavi Presidency would have done, considering his dismal lacklusture and lethargic term as PM in the 80's where he merely pandered to the Qom establishment.

Iran today has a vibrant civil society, realtively free press and a highly educated population, particulry amongst the urban youth. Ahmadinejad is trying to create his own political legacy by tapping into the clamour for more pluralistic change vis a vis a more accomodating political system and less social restrictions by pushing the envelope.

Anyway, no one should be surprised by his intellectual challenge to the Ayatollahs and should take the time to examine his tenure as the Mayor of Tehran and the manifesto of his Abadgaran politics.

Ahmedinejad is a strong willed politician who has a highly nationalistic vision for Iran and righly believes that Iran has a manifest destiny to be a major power. He is also not a dogmatic religious figure and can see the need for inclusive change and relative liberalization.

The attacks on him by the conservative clergy should come as no surprise as they reflect their desire for maintaining status quo. That may be futile as Iran will change and modify its governing system regardless of Ahmadinejad or Khamenei. Change is inevtitable due to demograhic, social and economic factors as well as geo-politics and Iran's increasingly dominant position.

Iran's overall policies whether be nuclear or regional will also not change much, so this whole internal debate is merely about factional pluralistic politics and will not cross the Velayet e Faqih redline.

Iranian mullah's unlike their uneducated Wahabbi/salafist counterparts in Saudi Arabia, Egypt or Pakistan (where most of the population is illiterate) are far more educated, globally aware and in tune with the Iranian psyche to let matter get out of hand within the IRI establishment. Iranian public is not interested in any internal destabilization either, as recent events have clearly shown. So in essense Ahmadinejad's political legacy may be further opening of a pluralistic Islamic democracy as well as strengthening of the Presidency.

Nader Uskowi said...

I believe things are more complicated that meets the eyes. Ahmadinejad looks very vulnerable and he might not last the two years of what’s remained of his presidency. It is not out of question either that a clerical coalition of Khamenei, Rafsanjani, and Khatami is being formed for the upcoming Majlis elections (March ‘12) and the presidential election of 2013. (Both Khatami and Rafsanjani would be eligible to run in the presidential election). Aside from Ahmadinejad, the major losers in this power struggle seem to be Khamenei himself (after spending so much political capital to support Ahmadinejad against Mousavi and now forced to push him out) and Mesbah Yazdi (Ahmadinejad’s supposed religious guide, and these days his principle detractor) and Janati (for same reasons). This is strengthening Rafsanjani’s hands.

Anonymous said...

I agree. It would be interesting to see how a post-Khamenei Iran shapes up. I think Larajani and Ghalibaf can not be discounted either. A Rafsanjani comeback may be doubtful. I am not sure how much support Mousavi really had, but bringing out the "greens" in violent agitation only made Khamenei and the mullahs close ranks and grudingly support Mahmoud (Khamenei did not publicly embrace him and gave a cold shouldered support). I don't think they ever trusted the mercurial Ahmadinejad. In political terms Khamenei in 2009 had very little options left after the Sepah had made it clear that they would not stand idle if street violence took hold and Mousavi in his desperation provided them with a justification in cracking down on dissent. Thus Khamenei was stuck between a rock and hard place and hurt his own legitimacy.

Anonymous said...

what a distortion of words and intentions..... might as well wipe Israel off the map.

کانون ایرانیان said...

با سلام لطفا با کانون ایرانیان در عرصه فرهنگ ایران زمین تبادل لینک نمایید با تشکرر

نام بلاگ

Nader Uskowi said...

Anon 1:00 AM,

If the anti-Ahmadinejad coalition materializes, then Qalibaf and Larijani will be part of it, I agree. On Rafsanjani, I believe Khamanei will be dealing with him directly, seeing in him a more co-equal than in Khatami, Larijani or Qalibaf. And if this coalition is formed, it will be around the parliamentary elections less than a year from now and for presidential election of 2013. On Mousavi, Karrubi: I don't believe they will be part of this coalition, but their supporters can accept the coalition as a pragmatic and real alternative.

Of course there are talks of other scenarios as well, including a military option. But considering the realities on the ground and in the Mideast region, I believe a tendency toward more openness and the return to a less ideological period (16-year period under Rafsanjani and Khatami, for example) with an agreement over a supreme leadership council (as opposed to a supreme leader) after Khamenei's term is a more likely scenario.

Anonymous said...

baseless arikel.
ayatollah x said this
ayatollah Y siad that
Iran is´a republic , the people can say their own opinion.
75 millionen different opinions.

the president is wahmadi nejad and chief of state is khamenie.

just today ayatollah khameni supported the government