Wednesday, August 24, 2011

The Iran - Libya analogy

By Paul Iddon

The parallel between the fall of the Colonel Gaddafi to a possible future confrontation between the Iranian regime and large parts of its own disenfranchised population.

Shortly after the Egyptian people stood together in their thousands in solidarity in Tahrir Square in Cairo, where they showed their unity and opposition to the Mubarak regime instigating its downfall something quite different happened in neighbouring Libya. The aged, senile dictator Muammar Gaddafi had ordered his air force to strafe Benghazi, the main hub of opposition to his rule. Two Libyan pilots clearly showing a lot of guts and initiative diverted their French made Mirage F-1 jets and flew to Malta in a dramatic defection, which they undertook to avoid slaughtering their fellow countrymen. Gaddafi had made it clear that he would go to any lengths to preserve his rule, even if it meant going to war against a large proportion of his countries population.

That was by all means a civil war, and given Libya's longstanding regional and tribal divisions when Gaddafi's tinpot rule finally capitulates we may not see a fully united Libya, (or even a stable one). This is another thing that distinguishes this situation from the one in Iran (I can't see even the Revolutionary Guards Air Corps strafing protesters with their 'Frogfoot' attack planes as a means of crushing democratic insurrection anytime soon). Furthermore unlike Tripoli (which remained relatively calm until the rebels arrival earlier this week) Tehran is the centre of not only the present regime, but also a hefty amount of the countries many youthful democrats.
Also Iran unlike the regions tinpot dictatorships didn't immediately dispatch tanks and other forms of lethal force to crush the people when they amassed in opposition to the regimes authoritarian rule, but instead employed brute baton wielding Basij thugs as a forms of crushing said insurrection, these tactics were eerily reminiscent to Israel's earlier attempts to subvert the Palestinian masses during the onset of what is now known historically as the First Intifada.

The regime clearly has no intention of signing its death warrant in the same manner that the last Shah did, the manner in question being the use of live ammunition as a means of suppressing the masses democratic aspirations.

The Iranian system and society is gradually metamorphosing into a secular democracy, demographically this is the countries destiny, and the present powers that be know their time is limited and are acting accordingly. But they're still treating citizens in a condescendingly childlike manner which reeks of utter contempt for principals such as individual freedom and freedom of expression. They treat their people with such contempt while adopting a zero tolerance policy towards criticism or public scrutiny towards their authoritarian rule. And furthermore subjecting those who don't conform to rape and torture is a very violent and paranoid way of conducting internal affairs. And now this rapidly declining and deteriorating regime is doing its utmost to assemble a nuclear weapon in which to use to intimidate its neighbours and elbow its way into broader regional affairs in its characteristically thuggish self-pitiful and self-indulgent righteous manner.

Even in an educated country like Iran steeped as it is in thousands of years of civilization will be further held back development wise by a regime whose domestic policies include the suppression of many the talents of its females. A regime that sneers at the educated and intellectuals of the country who are neither forced into exile or imprisoned for having the audacity to speak out against their policies; which have made one of the oldest and most advanced civilizations of the past a backward social pariah in the 21st century. One which is slowly declining to a state of beggary. It can be safely bet that the clerical rulers will utilize such conditions to lay the blame on western imperialism, Zionism and the Crusaders (or as I like to refer to them all as; the usual suspects).

And as with all totalitarian systems, when the states industry and economy grinds to a halt the loyal thugs that make up the paramilitary forces, the ones that have been indoctrinated ideologically wise will fight until the bitter end, even if it means shattering their own state and its people in the process.

The regime at present is gradually building itself up to reach the point where Gaddafi is now, where most of the people it presides over are liabilities, as their willingness to pursue democratic change is a direct threat to the regimes firm grip on the status quo. Therefore conflict between the fascistic elements of the regime and the aspiring and maturing Iranian democrats is only inevitable. And civilization and the idea of international human rights and justice will themselves be only abstract and wishful ideas in an international community that should rightfully be ashamed of itself if it lets such a grotesque outcome transpire in Persia.

P.S. In the 2010 Democracy Index carried out by The Economist both Iran and Libya were listed as authoritarian regimes. Both of which scored exactly 1.94 out of 10.00 (Norway got the highest with 9.80 and North Korea scored the lowest with 1.08).

Editor’s Note: Paul Iddon is one of the authors of Uskowi on Iran. His weekly columns appear here on Wednesdays.


Anonymous said...

I'm having trouble digesting this, Paul.

Are you saying the minority political element of the Iranian electorate should be placed in charge over the majority element, and the legitimate 2009 election overturned (by mob rule on the street?) to the favor of this 1:3 minority?

If this is what you're saying, how undemocratic is that?

Anonymous said...

Anon 6:33 AM
"I'm having trouble digesting this"

Take some indigestion tablets then get prepared for the day of judgment.

Alborz said...

accept the election 2009 was free and fair and not forged.
accept Mahmud Ahmadi nejad won with a majority of 62%

even the irianan oppoastion can not offer any evidences for election fraud.
what do you have to say here ?

Anonymous said...

Yeap and Khomeini's picture was really in the moon.

Anonymous said...

"And now this rapidly declining and deteriorating regime is doing its utmost to assemble a nuclear weapon in which to use to intimidate its neighbours and elbow its way into broader regional affairs in its characteristically thuggish self-pitiful and self-indulgent righteous manner."

thank you, you have great stupidity to show much you understand iran, above shows your politicis for what is ignonarce of reality, to think that someone like you wants prosperity, peace for iranians and people in the region generally should put anybody indoubt whatever your politics

and comparing the meny thousands dead and their living conditions to starvation and torture of the first intafada

you still are not very clever to hide your real politics amongs your typical "freedom and democracey" to show much of a saint you are

Redz said...

to describe things in the way you do, especially the countries development smacs of hatred and madness, you can disagree with politics of meny governments but its progress and reality is a fact that has to be recognised

honestly whatever your politics in iran please read this guys article see it seething with deliberate hatred for iran not the current government

can i get an article on this blog to give a more balaced account instead of propaganda

Anonymous said...

Lybia has joined Iran and Egypt in ridding their despots.

I understand what you are trying to imply but that shows more about you than what realities are.

I do not agree at all with your wishful thinking.

Kemjika said...

this piece sounds very "liberal" leaning IMO. The problem with all these "rebels" and "alternatives" and "deviant ideas" is that they deon't have much a track record to trust.Libya now has a real chance of splitting as a country despite the rebels gaining victory over Gaddafi. Its just dangerous when countries quickly opt for "democracy" when they are n't fully considering their country's history and how decmocracy will fit into that fabric. We already see the disaster Iraq currently is. We are seeing a blind Egpypt figure its way out(even though its chance of war/conflict with Israel is now higher).ALl i'm saying is that countries need to self reflect FIRST, then choose independently, their own system of governance.Democracy simply doesn't work for all countries,but western propaganda and agendas want it in every country.

Anonymous said...

Libya is free from Gaddifa!
Stay tuned the next show is due staring Khameini the organ grinder and his little monkey Antar also staring Assad the acid thrower.

Large turnout due for tyrants once in a life time experience for their sending off party!

Warning to apologists stay clear it could be detrimental to your health!

Anonymous said...

Good on you Paul as usual you seem to upset the zealous minority of so called Iranians with their pathetic tosh.
But never mind Paul the truth always prevails they shall see the error of their ways and learn the hard way but unfortunately for them it will be all over.

Anonymous said...

I have never read such a one sided rubbish except in Keyhan of London.

I enjoyed to understand what it is that bothers anti Iranians.

I am sure Mr Idon,you shall amuze us more with your thoughts.

reader said...

I am troubled and disappointed by this article of yours - you may have just crossed the line beyond which I, and probably many other readers find it uncomfortable to read. I am not aware of any evidence to suggest that the regime is assembling a nuclear weapon to intimidate its neighbours. There may be an aspiration for the regime to have nuclear weapon to wield against those threatening its existence, but this aspiration is shared by the majority of Iranian population, pro- and anti- regime. I just hope that the events in Egypt, Tunisia and Libya encourage our Mullas to give the power back to the people and hopefully make them to realize that the true force of the people and their capacity for transformation can bring unthinkable changes in a very very short time.

Mehdi said...

Ask Mr Uskowi to translate this Persian proverb for you:
خودت می‌بری خودت هم می‌دوزی
Because it is what you do in this article and I don't seem to find a better way to formulate it.
In fact I don't see a difference between this writing style with that of hard-line basiji publications.
Two extremes justifying existence of each other.

Anonymous said...

From the post: "And now this rapidly declining and deteriorating regime is doing its utmost to assemble a nuclear weapon in which to use to intimidate its neighbours and elbow its way into broader regional affairs in its characteristically thuggish self-pitiful and self-indulgent righteous manner."

This is a "characteristically thuggish self-pitiful and self-indulgent righteous manner" comment.


Because there is ZERO evidence that Iran has or ever had a nuclear weapons program of any kind.

This article sounds like it was written by some neocon moron - or more likely a Zionist support of Israel.

Anonymous said...

I wish I knew what "Kos O Sher" in English is Mr Idon.

Dare publish this you hobby liberal democrats

Anonymous said...

Ballistic missiles are not for delivering flowers.

Never the less if Islamic regime has no bomb or 100 bombs it still wont save them against the peoples wrath.

Sweet Dreams Dreamers.

Anonymous said...

not quite true.......

---" Because there is ZERO evidence that Iran has or ever had a nuclear weapons program of any kind." ---

there is zero evidence that iran has assembled nuclear weapons.
there is a pretty darn fair amount of evidence that they have a program.

Anonymous said...

I stopped reading after the first paragraph, and I consider myself a tollerant reader !
I am sorry but that was a provocation.
I disliked it and condemn this unbelievable anti-Iranianism at this dangerous times when the west is waiting like vultures to steal our Oil and resources.
Very irresponsible and deliberately wanton.

Anonymous said...


Anonymous said...


You zionists love to delude yourselves while your world falls down around you. Your main supporter, the US, is in ruins. Absolute ruins substantively and will soon have to tend its own affairs. Egypt turned from a country run by an Israeli stooge into one hostile to Israel. The same will happen to Libya which will certainly become more Islamic. Reminds me of another revolution in the Middle East, which one, oh right when Israel loving Pahlavi was kicked out and in came a government that won't even allow its citizens to travel to Israel.

So sorry.

Anonymous said...

Most of the posts here who are attacking Paul is obviously written by one paranoid person just calm down take some tablets and go to sleep you will feel better for it in the morning.

What an organ grinder!

Anonymous said...

Egypt is not hostile to Israel it's not to their benefit nor Israels.

It's only in your mind that hostilities exist you should grow up and come into the real world.

Anonymous said...

---"Your main supporter, the US, is in ruins. Absolute ruins...."---

Yowzer!!! Where does this clownish idea come from? Is it because Iran has the US completely surrounded?
Because Iranian sanctions have driven the US to it's knees?

Where's the idea that Egypt is now more hostile to Israel than it already was come from?

You think that Egypt now despises Iran any less?
Have you failed to note that the Arab States are gearing up for conflict with the meddlesome guys running Iran?
Haven't noted that the Iranians are now calling Turkey a tool of the bankrupt US?

Hey, why not show your diplomatic savvy be cursing at your neighbors? After all, cursing out Russia after they cancelled the S-300 sale worked so well.

Yup, the US is bankrupt and it's GDP was estimated to be nearly $14.7 trillion in 2010.

iran's was almost, according to ISNA reports, $417 billion

Ronnie said...

The difference between Libya and Iran is the following:
Libya was a military dictatorship under Colonel Ghadafi, who once seized power with a coup t'etat, and who now has been overthrown again by the former monarchist forces, who managed to grab the power again, and who most likely will errect a monarchy again in Libya.
Iran is partly democracy and partly theocracy, since the Shah was ousted in an islamic revolution.
So in effect, the Libyan events are a restauration, whereas the events in Iran have been a true revolution.
Besides, along results of numerous international polls, election of the Ahmedinejad government was NOT rigged, but represents the true will of the majority of Iranian people.

Anonymous said...

What a disgusting and one sided article.
Shame on you.

Nahid / Hamburg

Anonymous said...

"Iran is partly Democracy and partly Theocracy"

Your gradually learning that regime is no democracy just a few more lessons then you might come to your senses.

The true will of the Iranian people was stamped on by a brutal regime who claims they are working for the majority but in reality they are the tiny minority.

Anonymous said...

Anon 3:58 "Nahid / Hamburg

What a disgusting and one sided article."

Rings a bell doesn't it?

Just like the disgusting and one sided regime that resides in Tehran Nahid joon.

Anonymous said...

All wishfull thinking!

Anonymous said...

I know it's wishful thinking by the regime apologists your right!

Maybe they will come to their senses?
Anyway I doubt it, looks like it's to late for them poor souls.

Anonymous said...

"What a disgusting and one sided article.
Shame on you."

I apologize to everyone, I should not have used that word "shame on you".

Nahid / Hamburg

Anonymous said...

It's alright Nahid joon.

Shame is something that the Islamic Theocracy lacks.

Anonymous said...

the regime in your country ireland rapes innocent children by cooperating with and giving immunity to child molester christian priests. Basically most of the western so called democratic regimes(including italy,britain,u.s etc.) have more or less shown this character. Western regimes build and use nuclear weapon(hirosima,nagasaki) on civilians. Use depleted nuclear materials as bombs on civilians(iraq). They stockpile thousands of these inhumane weapons intended to use these on civilians to terrorize a whole country/region/continent to materialize their evil goal of controlling the globe. So i suggest u to not to be in the team of the unjust; and don't throw stone at others when your own house is made of glass.

Anonymous said...

Anon 2:20 AM

What are you babbling about for god sake ?
What's Ireland got to do with Iran?
This is a Iran blog just in case you've forgotten.
If you want to write about rapes lets mention mass rapes to men women and young people in Iranian prisons by your loving thugs the so called security forces.
You mention glass houses how about children being raped by mullahs in mosques and being secretly filmed.

Anyway you complain about the evil west so why in blazers do you live in it?
Go and live in Saudi Arabia or Sudan and why not be the guest of the Islamic Fascist regime that resides in Tehran unless your one of those basij boys which have been totally brainwashed into oblivion.

Anonymous said...

Annon August 28, 2011 12:40 PM

I second you on this. Annon August 28, 2011 2:20 AM is a complete tosser who lives (as mopst these babblers do) in West and from the safety of West he/she is sending these worthless messages about the state of Ireland, UK, US etc.

I was in Iran lasst for the second time in the past six months and I challenge these self appointed judges to put their money where thei mouth is and take a trip to Iran. They don't realize how people in Iran make ends meet.

Most of these people who support the current barbaric regime in Iran are from lower class or Bazari families who with the help of the current regime have come to West and are stuck there (ask them if they want to go back). They would much prefer working in KFC than going home! They are all mouth and no action!

Anonymous said...

Anon August 28 2:43 PM

Thank you for your comment.I'm glade someone here has common sense!

Your right about these people they must be from mullah families and agents of regime with a total IQ of zero and they pervade through the internet system to challenge Free thinking Iranians with their dross.
Looking forward to more of your comments.

Anonymous said...

Anon August 28, 2011 5:20 PM

As I mentioned I have been to Iran twice in the past six months and most recently last week and I can explain the situation over there in one familiar word (eftezah!).

After thirty odd years of this ideology, the country has totally changed. The well offs from the major cities have abandoned ship and emigrated abroad. The less well offs have moved to Tehran and now the cities are full of villagers with odd accents. In the word of a local person, “we have become strangers in our own town”.

As you already know corruption and bribery in Iran are endemic. I had some work in both town hall (Shahrdari) and Inland Revenue (Darayi) and without bribery I would have been stranded over those places for months. One information desk/receptionist familiar with my case and needs, after seeing me wondering in corridors for a small job for few days, took me to corner and mentioned straight to my face “if you do not want to go up and down corridors and waste your time, it is going to cost you 2 million tomans and you will get your doc in two days”. Two million tomans is roughly $1700 dollars and I obliged. That was in town hall. In Inland Revenue the story was the same, no difference. The problem of corruption in Iran has existed and pre-dates the revolution, however, the economic policy of this Government has made it far worse.

The truth is that it will not be an exaggeration if I state that there are 75 million people over there and they are all trying to con each other! Everyone thinks for themselves. Tolerance, respect for others etc are things of the past! They will look at you face and if it is worthwhile they will greet you, otherwise they will ignore you. Because of neglect of heath and excessive pollution, heart and respiratory diseases have increased and cities large and small are choking with pollution. Of course half of the population of the country (females) are officially second class citizens. So we are sitting here and have to tolerate these low lives that know nothing and think Islam is the only way. The problem is that they are all hypocrites. They live in the West and enjoy safety and freedom that these democratic countries offer and still are supporting this wretched regime!

Anonymous said...

Anon August 7:45 PM

Thanks for interesting read.
It's very sad what has happened to our country and I can understand your feelings towards that disgusting regime in Tehran.

What we have to do now is look at the future of our country and do something about it even communicating and sharing information is vital because information is king.

I can see a much brighter future for Iran, regimes come and go and this one is on it's way out.
How and when that is the question but it's going to happen soon.