Friday, June 12, 2009

Massive Fraud Suspected in Iran Elections

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is being declared the winner of Iran’s presidential election with nearly 35% margin over nearest competitor Mir Hossein Mousavi, with Karrubi and Rezaie receiving only 2% of the vote. The numbers do not add up. All the indications pointed to a very tight race between Ahmadinejad and Mousavi. Winning with 35% margin over Mousavi was unimaginable.

The questions is, if the government wanted to rig the votes in favor of Ahmadinejad, why did it need to show a margin of 35%. It would have been more believable if the margin was fixed at 1 or 2%. Here we might be witnessing not only an act of fraud on the part of the government, but a deliberate move to openly challenge and agitate the political opponents and the millions of ordinary young people who came out in droves on the city streets of Iran to register their unhappiness with the current situation.

The government seems to be challenging the opponents to come out again in anger in order to clamp down hard on them. The danger is for the IRGC and the Basij to raise their arms against the people in the coming hours and days.

To this analyst, the government’s move has all the hallmarks of a coup. The ruling group was loosing its control and has gone out in force to suppress the people’s aspirations. The opponents, especially Mousavi, Karrubi and Rezaie, need to find ways to register their refusal of the results of the election without risking a bloodbath on the streets of Iran.

A massive strike in the coming days might be a prudent approach. Such strike will have solid international support.


Anonymous said...

you have proof? me, personally, I do not believe in middle class revolutions, not in this century.

the western press basically has been partisan to a large extent - not doing their jobs.

the Iranians know how a successful revolution is done, if they really want it, they will do it (and get real change - not change they have to believe in - sorry I had to get this in :-))).

another thought: as the religious leader trying to stay in power, needing a safety valve for a people who know how to do a successful revolution - would I allow an election to be rigged between candidates I had the chance to vet carefully beforehand and who have been given ample space to fight it out in public?

That said, the numbers for Ahmadinejad seem quite high.

Ali Asad Somjee said...

What role will the supreme leader play in all of this? Mousavi has sent an open letter to the supreme leader claiming fraud. The leader's response appears key in determining how the situation resolves itself.

Anonymous said...

Karubi had an inspector by every single ballot box (almost 45 000).

and every county had been checked for the number of voters beforhand, I think even if there were manipulations, it would have been minimal.

I think Mussavi will make some noise and eventually accept.

Ahmadinjejad is popular in Irans rural areas, and I think he made it through his populism.

b said...

"All the indications pointed to a very tight race between Ahmadinejad and Mousavi. "

I followed the race and do not see such indications. Mousvais rallies were huge, but so where Ahmedinejads.

The only available independent poll, though 30 days old, pointed to a huge Ahmadinjad victory.

So what were those "indications" but lots of pro-Mousvai writing in the "western" media? What were the factual "indications"?

Anonymous said...

unfortunately all you analysts have been watching is the upper class big cities and middle/upper class iranians who mostly support Mousavi. But what about the lower class and those living in the slums/villages/rural areas? have you and western eyes been watching them at all? There is a saying farsi that says it very well, " kafar hameh ra be kish e khod mipendarad" meaning the atheist thinks everyone else is an atheist like him as well.

Jesse Aizenstat said...

I want to echo the voice of the last commenter: "unfortunately all you analysts have been watching is the upper class big cities and middle/upper class iranians who mostly support Mousavi."

How plausible is this? I talked to an Iranian prof friend of mine and she said "watch out for this, Ahmadinejad has massive support among the forgotten slums."

Can it be true?

Abu G

Anonymous said...

I am not an Ahmadinejad supporter, but I think considering the upcoming negotiations with the West, I would prefer a stronger Iranian President than Mussavi.

just an opinion