Sunday, January 23, 2011

Post Istanbul (2)

One step closer to a US war against Iran

by Mark Pyruz

Judging by the fact the West's "offer" to Iran at Istanbul appears to have been little more than a demand it surrender 90% of its enrichment stock, there is little doubt this was fully intended to be rejected by the Iranians. Three reasons can be cited for this course of action.

The first reason is the West has fallen for its own rhetoric, believing Iran is economically and politically on the ropes following the latest imposition of sanctions; combined with the mistaken notion there is a viable internal challenge to the political establishment inside Iran. This is for the most part based on flawed analyses by sources that continue to prove themselves unreliable.

Second, the West's demand at Istanbul is something of a short-sighted payback for the collapse of Lebanon's government, which was set in motion by Hezbollah and its allies on the cusp of politically motivated STL proceedings. This is all related to a continuous game of leverage being played out between the Western axis and the resistance camp.

Third, this action taken by the West is now the most brazen manifestation of Dennis Ross' previously documented plan of garnering support among powerful players against Iran by means of bad faith negotiating. As set out by Ross, this is to be accomplished by providing Iran with "offers" they are fully intended to reject. The object of this exercise is to promote ever more coercive policies against Iran on a steady drumbeat to war.

Two questions are raised by this recent turn of events. One is the extent of geopolitical capital expended by the US to get Russia and China on board (it must be quite extravagant). And the other is actually a variable on how long it will take for this US policy to reach its determined end state: war with the Islamic Republic of Iran. Before Istanbul, this author predicted the chances of a US imposed war on Iran at being roughly 50/50 over a time period covering the next four years. After Istanbul, these odds have increased to that of being likely during the same time span. Nevertheless, this represents a high risk undertaking for the US and global economy.


reader said...

I take your first and third points but not quite sure about the second. Syria is the gatekeeper to Lebenan and Iran’s influence will disappear overnight should Syria decide to shut the gate in exchange for the Golan heights. Americans are well aware of this but it suits their overall strategy of demonizing Iran as an obstacle to peace in ME and the collapse of the Lebanese government.

Anonymous said...

Two questions are raised by this recent turn of events. One is the extent of geopolitical capital expended by the US to get Russia and China on board (it must be quite extravagant). Total cost of the last sanctions so far $154B - that's fiat money anywhere!

Anonymous said...

I do not agree with that.

Iran is too big, too strong and too stubborn to bow and be ran over.

Iran is ll over, and Iran will make everyone bleed.


Mark Pyruz said...

Reader, the Syrians would make peace in a heartbeat upon the return of the Golan. But Israel just isn't going to make that happen.

WMD said...

So much for the "Cedar revolution". "The Empire" tried the same with the Ukraine -where Yushchenko was meant NOT to die because there wasn't a spare son hanging around- and it also failed in the end.

Wonder what they'll be calling it in Egypt: the "BBQ-revolution" (reminds me of those burning monks in Saigon)?!

WMD said...

... nearly forgot: "I love the smell of napalm in the morning... The smell, you know that gasoline smell... Smells like, victory"

Anonymous said...

Why should anyone want to go die for a non existant threat by a non existant program.

unless its about the control of the Oil wells and securing the dollar.

been reading persius maxius lately ;)
sorry if he finds his words here and there he or she should know i mean well


Anonymous said...

Some of the points raised are interesting, however, the global geo-strategic dynamics have changed. The US is far more vulnerable now than Iran. Furthermore, vis a vis Lebanon, Iran's ties to the Shia majority community date back at least a 1000years and are not going to be influenced too much by Syria which itself is now getting closer to Iran since the US and its Zionist masters have no interest in returning the Golan and other occupied Arab lands.

The most important fact is that the winds of change and unrest are growing in the youthful but economically, politically and educationally deprived Arab world run by neo-colonial installed corrupt dictatorships or even worse sickly monrachies.

Syria knows full well that almost all Arab regimes are tottering including the corrupt House of Saud, senile 83 year old puppet Mobarek, the artificial Trans-Jordanian midget regime and even the despotic rule of Ali Abdullah Saleh in Yemen is being questioned. The upheal in the Maghreb is just starting and the consequences will be far reaching. The Emperor has no clothes.

If the US in its infinite insanity opts for a war against Iran, such and act would be suicidal for the US, its Zionist savages occupying Palestine and for the wider global economy, not to mention the region. This conflagration will spread beyond the regional borders at a time when the US is already bankrupt, its economy crumbling and bogged down in the weakest Muslim nations, Iraq and Af-Pak. Any attack on Iran will open a pandora's box and the consequences will not be "contained" The Zionists for the first time since they occupied Palestine in 1948 will face a determined foe that will lay waste to their glass cities and bring the war home to the average savage Zionist and their hovels in Tel-Aviv and beyond which so far have been immune. The Zionist regime this time will not be facing unarmed Arab children throwing stones against 21st century US taxpayer funded weaponry. Iran will not be cowed or show restraint.

I would seriously doubt that the US is in a position to commit suicide at this stage as China is breathing down its economic jugular and its domestic situation crumbling. With rising food prices, housing sector collapse, massive unemployment, disappearing manufacturing, tuition hikes, third-world educational standards, lack of medical care etc, a rapid rise in the price of OIL to $500 a barrel or more will simply ruin the US, not to mention the global economy. Even a cursory look at the map can quickly sober even the most neo-crazy Pentagon/Zionist armchair chicken-hawk about the consequences of setting the Persian Gulf alight.

The Americans are cowardly bullies and hopefully not totally crazy.

Anonymous said...

US and Zionists will keep barking. PERIOD. Iran is TOO BIG to swallow.

Persicus Maximus said...

Lack of a political culture amongst the present American society and their unwillingness to understand world politics not being a Hollywood production leads to such dead end results.
5+1 is actually the USA and its pressure group AIPAC that decides what is and what is not. The rest are there to pretend relevance.

Anonymous said...

حمله نظامی تنها راه نجات ملت ایران است

Anonymous said...

شاشیدم به روحه مجاهده خلقه رجوی

Anonymous said...

Those dozen individuals sitting and hopping for Iran to bleed and others to come and rape Iran like the Anon 1:32AM, should be assured, that would never happen.

Even if Iran should come into harms way, people like him are never welcome and allowed to call Iran as their home.

They should keep hoping as they do until its their turn to commit suicide.

God Bless Iran and all true and Iran loving Iranians.