Friday, January 28, 2011

Egypt on the Verge of Liberation

Cairo Uprising. 28 January 2011

Photos: Peter Macdiarmid/Getty Images/NYTimes


Mark Pyruz said...


Scanning Yahoo pics, there are certain differences between Egyptian law enforcement antiriot efforts, as compared to Iran in '09.

The Egyptians have no qualms fielding their AWCVs. Their elite forces can be seen equipped with HK MP5s.

There is an AP video on YouTube of a protester shot by Egyptian security forces. Evidently, lethal force is being exercised.

Judging by the few videos available, Egypt's security forces almost appear unmotivated, particularly when compared to NAJA and Iranian army attached conscripts.

There are unconfirmed rumors suggesting 3 Egyptian armored units are on alert. Also, anecdotal accounts have isolated incidents of Egyptian security personnel crossing over to the side of the protestors.

The big question is whether Egypt's security/military forces will remain loyal.

Mark Pyruz said...

Another difference between Egypt now and Iran in '09:

AP is reporting the Egyptian military has been activated and is presently deploying on the streets of Cairo.

(In Iran's case, the Iranian military was not activated and deployed on the streets of Tehran for crowd control purposes.)

Anonymous said...

May ALLAH help the people of Egypt.Many innocent muslims lost their lives due to the tyrant Hosni Mubarak regime.Still innocent Palestinians in Gaza are suffering because of this oppressive regime.Once Egypt was considered as the heart of Islamic world and by grace of almighty ALLAH it will regain its post and prestige.

Anonymous said...

It was a no brainer from the beginning, US/Zionist installed regimes in the region and beyond will crumble like dust. The Muslims have had enough of these corrupt puppets who have sold out their people and enslaved themselves to the failing Zionist project in the region. Egypt, Jordan and Hejaz or so-called "Saudi Arabia" is next. The Arabs have had enough of US duplicity and neo-imperialism.

Anonymous said...

@ Mark

Let's keep it real. Iran post-election "protests" were merely a normal protest by the losing side, namely Mousavi who is himself part of the hybrid Iranian Islamic system. Egypt is a repressive US installed murderous regime that has looted the nation. Iran is a functioning, modern, prosperous Islamic democracy. There is no comparison than the mere fact that 1979 Iranian revolution has been an inspiration to all Muslims. The puppet Shah's regime used brutal force at Jaleh Square and crumbled the smae day. Currently, Iranian population has no interest in the "overthrow" of a stable system based on plurality and inclusion much to the chagrin of Iran's enemies. Let's accept the fact that Iranian system has wide public support and the media and civil society is free.

The Arabs have neo-imperialist regimes that have humiliated their people and sold out to the alien Zionist occupation of Arab lands. The winds of change can not be stopped nor the collpase of Zionism in the region be delayed. There are 500 million Arabs who have had enough.

Anonymous said...

Israeli special army units are now around Govt. buildings in Cairo.

600 are stationed and 7000 are on their way.


Anonymous said...

Purely in terms of technical analysis, Iranian anti-riot units from last year's disturbances appear significantly better trained, properly armed, organized, and coordinated. Any helos used in Egypt for reconn?

Anonymous said...

just read as of this afternoon, there have been more than a dozen military flights from Pakistan and Afghanistan eroute to Cairo filled with dark haired Xe I(ex black water)members.

as of tomorrow there will be more dead (but wont be announced)


Anonymous said...

Comparing Egypt to Iran is an insult to Iranians. Iran is a stable functioning state with a first rate law enforcement capability. Iranian GDP (ppp nominal) is over $938 BILLION or closer to a TRILLION dollars. Egypt with 87 million largely uneducated Felayheen (Nile dealta farmers)lives off US aid as its corrupt military and Mobarek's family and son siphon off 90% of the aid, hence the riots in the streets. Egypt's GDP is barely $198 billion with per capita of around $1800 if not less.

Iranian police and anti-riot forces are educated, have world class training and resources and know how to marshall rioters into manageable groups without resort to lethal force. Even the foreign funded agent provocatuers who attacked the banks and other public institutions in Vali Asr could not provoke a harsh response as the motorcycle pillion riding riot police used batons, night sticks and CS (capsicum spray) to easily disperse the rioters. Most Iranians were not interested in any violence anyway. Even under the shah, the rank and file of Artesh refused to fire on fellow Iranians prompting the US to send General Huyser to put some repressive measures but its was TOO LATE. Iranian military is now the most professional battle tested nationalistic force in the region.

The situation is Egypt as any objective person would know, is that the US and its Zionist lapdog have kept a corrupt, repressive and kleptocratic charity case aid dependent regime in power to promote the regional Zionist agenda. Now the US and Zionists will further repress the freedom aspirations of Egyptians by mass murder using Pakistani and Zionist Blackwater/XE mercenaries. This will ensure a Islamic Revolution.

Nader Uskowi said...

The Egyptian uprising’s similarity to the post-election Iranian uprising is the underlying anger of the youths at lack of freedom and lack of hope for their future. But the uprising in Egypt, and in Tunisia, is more similar to the anti-Shah uprising of 1978/79. It is targeting the pinnacle of power in the country, Mubarak and his regime. The Iranian opposition settled to remove the number two, and was checkmated when the number one threw his support behind his beleaguered deputy.

Tunisia’s decision to quit, and Mubarak’s likely decision to follow his Tunisian counterpart in near future, is similar to the Shah’s decision. Police states relying on total suppression of freedoms are prone to collapse when the masses dare question their invincibility. Ahmadinejad, however, had the backing of Khamenei who was not the direct target of the uprising and who commanded allegiance from a significant segment of the population. Authoritarian and semi-authoritarian regimes, claiming their legitimacy partly on their ideology, prove much more resilient.

Anonymous said...

Egyptians want the donkey gone, yet Israel/USA/UK changes the saddle of the donkey.

Western media, are begining to claim it over and Mobarak to now bring changes.

Tony Blair in Davos/Switzerland said, WE have to find a way to bring this under control. (if that does nt say the obvious.)

Egyptians should go for a revolution and reclaim their honor back from Israel.


Anonymous said...

Dear Uskowi,
Egyptian uprising has nothing similar to Irans 2009, but all similarities to Irans 1977-78

Irans protest was similar to the Greek osterity protests in Europe.


Anonymous said...

I pray to the God of Abraham, Isaac and Jacob that unlike the Iranian revolution, we don't need another crazed islamic radical madman taking over.

Anonymous said...

SOrry Uskowi,

half my comment was not transmitted (wireless), my last comment made the impression of you claiming otherwise.

But yes you are right

and to the last anon...talkin about crazed religous zealots(like yourself) ;)


Mark Pyruz said...

Nader, according to an analysis that has withstood serious challenge, the underlying cause for Iran's disappointed electorate in 2009 was the unsubstantiated claim that the election was fraudulent. What's more, multiple public opinion polls reflect wide support for the political establishment of Iran, and figures reflect the official election results in favor of Ahmadinejad's landslide election win. Thus a vocal minority of no more than 30% (potentially larger in Tehran) was attempting to overturn a legitimate election result by mob rule. In effect, an attempted color coup by a minority of greater than 1:3. By a margin of 3:1, Iranians inside Iran supported law enforcement efforts to put down this unlawful challenge.

It's very telling that Iran's political establishment never lost confidence in its law enforcement agency. There was no introduction of curfew or martial law and the military was never mobilized. Contrast this with Mubarak's lack of confidence and his rash decision to deploy the military in Cairo and Alexandria. Heck, there are Egyptian M60 battle tanks positioned in Cairo as I write this. Very different response than Iran in '09, and very much like Iran in '78/'79.

Anonymous said...

@ Mark. Your analysis is spot on. I don't think the Egyptian military which is kept on a short-leash by the Americans (who control the weapons, spares and senior officer corps promotions) will hold on much longer under sustained protests. The corrupt generals have bank accounts overseas and will end up in Miami and Riyadh.

Nader Uskowi said...


Disputed elections normally do not end up in uprising. The elections result could indeed have triggered it, but we need to look at the underlying causes that can bring so many youths to the street.

On the polls, and supposing they were scientifically taken: they show a significant segment of the society sided with the opposition, even though they did not constitute a majority. 30% plus is a huge minority. We can also go back and check the photos and videos at the time to see the presence of hundreds of thousands of mainly young people on the streets of Tehran and other major cities in the country. Again, 30% or more of the population would not have resorted to tactics best described as uprising just registering their dislike of the elections results, there were other more fundamental caused involved here, such as lack of freedom and lack of opportunity especially for the youths.

A word of caution on these polls: these polls were conducted from phone banks in Istanbul. A cold call to a household in Iran asking them how they voted a year after a winner was announced can not be that scientific. It is very difficult to do polling in societies like Iran. I am not against them, they should be used as a tool to get the pulse of the society, especially if they are person-to-person polls as opposed to cold calls from a foreign city, but I would not bank on them.

Confidence in law enforcement to quell people’s demonstration efficiently is really not a positive attribute for any government. Best way is to provide enough freedom and opportunities in the first place so the youths would not be compelled to risk their lives to go on the streets thee way they did during the Green movement.

Mark Pyruz said...

Well Nader, I take you back to the situation in the US during the 1960s and early 70s. Nixon was reelected by a landslide in '72, despite a vocal minority and a widespread dissatisfied youth element and roughly 100,000 that actually became refugees (mostly in Canada). Was that a sign of US political illegitimacy or instability? No it was not.

And in the Iranian case, look at all the external encouragement being applied toward Iranian society to rebel, in addition to foreign applied economic warfare. And still, the public opinion polls reflect a society that supports their government by a margin of 85%.

Regarding those polls, what is striking is how consistent they all are. It is this consistency that contributes so much to their credibility (in addition to their scientifically based methodology).

Myself, I am a more liberal voter in Iranian elections. But I do not allow my own personal political persuasion to interfere in the making of objective analyses. Nor do I discount consistent and scientifically derived public opinion polls.

In the case of Mubarak, let's see if he can get 100,000 to counter-demonstrate in Cairo, as took place in Iran on 22 Bahman. I might be wrong but I doubt he's capable of this. We'll see shortly how well his law enforcement and military forces hold up. The former haven't looked as motivated and sure of their cause as was the case of Iran's. And there's nothing to fall back on beyond the current deployment of the Egyptian military, aside from foreign military intervention. We may be in for more interesting times ahead.

Nader Uskowi said...

Mark, I do appreciate your point of view. What I am saying is that we need to be careful linking the Green movement solely to the presidential election results. In my opinion, the very underlying causes that pushed the youths to join the Greens still exist. In controlled societies, we cannot be sure when, how, and how effective a mass movement develops and manifests itself in some form of uprising. But I believe that one thing is certain: if the governments in the countries of the region do not improve the conditions that give rise to public discontent, they will face uprisings. No two ways about it, sooner than later.

I applaud your objectivity, and I have always done so. And saying that the Green movement must have had underlying reasons above and beyond the election results should not be constituted as biased opinion, you might not agree with the analysis but I think it is important to take note of it. I cannot believe so many youths risked their lives on the streets of the cities in Iran just to have a former premier become the future president, with the supreme leader in his place. But this is a discussion for another post!

Mubarak will not be able even to bring a handful of supporters to the streets. In the original comment I said that the uprisings in the Arab world are much closer to the Islamic revolution of 1979 than to the Green movement. The Egyptian regime, and unfortunately all the Arab regimes, lack legitimacy, very much likes the Shah. And I do not believe, with what I see on the TV, the Egyptian military would have the stomach to shoot its citizens to save Mubarak and his cronies. Let’s hope that’s the case!

Mark Pyruz said...

Al-Jazeera is reporting Egyptian police are no longer in evidence in Cairo.

The military is the only force present. (Not even traffic police are in evidence. There seems to be a fair amount of fraternizing going on between members of the military and protesters. Some of the imagery is reminiscent of Tehran in 1979.

It should be kept in mind that Egypt's military is not adequately trained or equipped for crowd control purposes. This could be looked at as a potential weakness depending on the level of force the military is willing to committ to.

Anonymous said...

The west never invested in Egyptian opposition and now west is desperate to profile them/one.... very much like the Iraq dilema.

The Egyptian moslem brotherhood has learned from their 90 years history, and keeps a low profile, they shall emerge when the west picks their man to replace Mobarak.

so I read on the net.


Anonymous said...

Iran Sees Rise of Islamic Hard-Liners in most Arab states. Iranian leaders are vindicated by their independent stance since 1979and rejection of US policies. Incidentally, most Arab population wants to emulate the successful Iranian revolution.

Hopeful that the protests sweeping Arab lands may create an opening for hard-line Islamic forces, conservatives in Iran are taking deep satisfaction in the events in Tunisia, Egypt and Yemen, where secular leaders have faced large-scale uprisings.

Today, as a result of the gifts of the Islamic revolution in Iran, freedom-loving Islamic peoples such as the peoples of Tunisia, Egypt and nearby Arab countries are standing up to their oppressive governments,” said a leading hard-line cleric, Ayatollah Mohammad-Taghi Mesbah-Yazdi, who is believed to have influence with President Ahmadinejad.

In comments published Friday on the Web site of the semiofficial news agency ISNA, Ayatollah Mesbah-Yazdi, who favors a political system in which elections merely endorse “divinely chosen” clerical leaders, congratulated the people of Tunisia and Egypt, stating that they had acted “based on the principles” of Iran’s Islamic revolution.

All chapters of the Muslim Brotherhood in the Arab world have also stressed that US agenda for the region is crumbling.

The leader of Jordan's powerful Muslim Brotherhood warned Saturday that unrest in Egypt will spread across the Mideast and Arabs will topple leaders allied with the United States.

Hammam Saeed's comments were made at a protest outside the Egyptian Embassy in Amman, inspired by massive rallies in neighboring Egypt demanding the downfall of the country's longtime president, Hosni Mubarak.

About 100 members of the fundamentalist group and activists from other leftist organizations and trade unions chanted "Mubarak, step down" and "the decision is made, the people's revolt will remain."

Elsewhere, a separate group of 300 protesters gathered in front of the office of Jordanian Prime Minister Samir Rifai, demanding his ouster. "Rifai, it's time for you to go," chanted the group.

Anonymous said...

1:06 YOUR FACE! is a crazed religous zealot.