Thursday, January 13, 2011

The Fall of Lebanese Government

Hezbollah on Wednesday brought down Lebanon’s national unity government after Syria failed in its attempts to mediate between Iran, the main ally of Hezbollah, and Saudi Arabia, the supporter of premier Saad Hariri, over the UN-backed tribunal investigating the assassination of former premier and Saad’s father, Rafiq Hariri, nearly five years ago. With no out of court settlement, the Hezbollah expected the eventual indictments of its senior members linked to Hariri’s assassination and pulled out of the government. The fall of government heightens tensions between the Sunni and Shia factions and puts the country in a serious state of crisis and stalemate.


Anonymous said...

The Lebanese Hariri government was a puppet regime based on a non-respresentative colonial model thrust by the American-French intrigues dating back to the Chamoun and Gemayel Maronite era of the 60's and then Zionist interference and invasion of the 70's till 2000 when Hezbollah kicked them out. The light-weight puppet Saad Hariri has run off to Paris to cry in midget Sarkozi's arms while ground realties shift.

The political and demographic reality is that the Shia's now comprise at least 70% of Lebanon's population if not more. The Sunni's, mostly in the North around the Tripoli area another 15-20% and then the dwindling Maronite (some allied to Hezbollah like Aoun) and some Druze with their unstable chief Walid Jumblatt (who swings with the wind and allies himself with perceived winners, namely Hezbollah lately). There has been no credible census in Lebanon since 1960 for this reason as it would clearly show Shia dominance.

The strategic and demographic reality is that Hezbollah besides being a "party of God" is also a party of the majority Muslims and this party also has massive guns and missiles that can outshoot anyone in Lebanon or beyond. The Wahabbi-Saudi distorted credo of Islam is not very appealing in the Lebanon or the wider-region now as a Shia cresent is rising from Iraq to Lebanon. Incidentially and without coincidence, it is not surprising that Moqtada al Sadr after returning from higher Shia "academic learnings" in Qom seminaries(since 2006)decided to start Hezbollah in Iraq franchise with a revamped Medhi army that wants US occupation to end pronto.

The Lebanese army is almost 75% or more Muslim and is now immune to US and Zionist manipulation. There have been widespread arrests of Zionist intelligence cells in the military and discovery of clandestine "communications" networks. The US is now in a quandry and it is not in a position to open a fourth front in Lebanon while its failing and going bankrupt from Iraq to Af-Pak. It will be interesting to see how the French intrigue and try to cobble a futile anti-Hezbollah "coalition" of weaklings and quislings in Beirut. They simply don't have the numbers, guts or military muscle to face Hezbollah in a military showdown as was quite evident in May 2008, when Nabih Berri's AMAL allied to Hezbollah routed the Saudi-Hariri gutless gunmen off the streets by lunchtime and then went home for dinner. This time Hezbollah will not be holding back its street savvy fighters who have boundless courage, determination, superb training and ample weaponry thanks to Iran and Syria. Taking on Hezbollah is unlike killing unarmed stone throwing Palestinian children in caged and malnourished Gaza.

Anonymous said...

I think Sa'ad Hariri is stuck between a rock and a hard place, and he's not up to it. The US(Israel)is pressing him to continue with the tribunal; Hizbullah says no. But he doesn't have the personality of his father.

All the Christians, and the Sunnis - the ones most in contact with the US and other powers like Saudi Arabia - complain a lot. And the US listens to them, like they listened to the opposition in Iran, not understanding that the Iranian opposition is a minority. The French of course dine with their friends the Christians, mainly Maronites. The Saudis with the Sunnis. They listen to them, forgetting they no longer have the power they used to have. The power is with Hizbullah - the despised Shi'a - but Hizbullah don't want overt control.