Saturday, January 22, 2011

Post Istanbul

By Nader Uskowi

Neither UN resolutions, sanctions, threats, computer virus nor even a military attack will stop uranium enrichment in Iran, declared Iran’s ambassador to IAEA Ali Asghar Soltanieh on the eve of the collapse of the Istanbul talks. Iran has made a national determination to become a nuclear power. It will attend talks and meetings on its nuclear program. It will entertain proposals and submit its own counter-proposals for possible compromises. But at the same time it keeps enriching uranium and improves the efficiency of its nuclear facilities. It has learned a lesson from the North Korean experience and will continue on the same path.

There is a price to be paid for such policy, sanctions and isolation in a global environment increasingly unfavorable for its institutions to operate. But the government, looking at the prospect of $100 oil, and expecting an economic revival induced by its ambitious subsidy reform program, has much less fears than expected under the circumstances. And this is where the similarities with North Korea end. Iran can survive the sanctions and the isolation much easier.

Surviving sanctions and isolation, even in an era of $100 oil, and having the bomb or not, does not mean that the country will be able to achieve its full potentials. In an increasingly shrinking globe, going alone is probably the dumbest strategy for any country. Hence we should expect growing internal debate inside the country, and growing dissatisfaction among the youths, on lack of progress and modernization expected of a country enjoying such vast natural and human resources. It is not matter of survival, it’s matter of what the country could have been.


Anonymous said...

The Zionist inspired "west" aka bankrupt US and pathetic barking poodles UK and France are sadly mistaken if they think Iran will bend to their perverted vision for the region. This is not 1953.

Anonymous said...

seems like u are already part of it =)

Anonymous said...

Iran will blow up soon, and not due to an enemy.
But thanks to its evil leaders. Wait some more and
learn that history will repeat itself, one of these days Khamenei will start a speech and at the end he will have to flee. It will come and soon. It will make Romania look like Disneyland

He in his golden palace with his great wealth robbed from the people of Iran. He will have to flee, or better face a peoples court. Like all the Basjii scum

Anonymous said...

Dear Nader,

I think your post and your general comments about this situation are correct, in the sense that to achieve an agreement Iran has to make a compromise.

But for me the logic breaks down if the other party aren't negotiating in good faith. No other respectable nation on the earth has agreed to the kind of demands made of Iran. Would any of Iran's counterparts accept IAEA inspectors at their nuclear facilities? Would they accept shipping out 90% of their nuclear stock outside their own country with no guarantee what so ever that they would get anything in exchange?

Your colleague Mark suggests that war might be imminent in the next 4 years, I suggest it's already in place, since 1979, the west has spared no effort in destroying the Iranian regime. The iran-iraq war, sanctions, terrorist attacks against scientists, upper-class uprisings these are all part of a wider strategy that has the objective of placing an israeli embassy in Terhan.

I suppose my question to you would be, how far should Iran compromise?


Nader Uskowi said...

Dear Hamu,

I believe the point of departure is not to compromise or not, and to what extent Iran needs to compromise. The main issue is the country’s national agenda in this global age. What are the national priorities? The government as well as the left would argue that the top priority is the independence from the West, showing the West that Iran is the master of its own destiny, and what a better way doing it than enriching more uranium and perhaps building the bomb against their objections and their dismay. They believe by following this path, they would contribute to the weakening of the West and accelerating its demise. Anti-West and anti-imperialism become the foundations of their national priority. As a result, they will accept any compromises, and actually see compromise as capitulation.

I do not believe that’s the country’s mission, and hence its national priority. The priority is to modernize and raise the standards of living across the country. Building bomb would only make sense if it helped the country to reach those goals. Not that the country would not benefit from being a nuclear power, but there are so many other pressing issues to push the country forward that building the bomb would not be priority #1. If you believe this way, then you do not see uranium enrichment as a goal in itself, or a path to defeat the West, so it loses its sacred position it has occupied in these past few years, and we can make some compromises, like fuel swap, especially if we are not after making the bomb immediately.

Nader Uskowi said...

last sentence of the first paragraph should of course read "they will NOT accept any compromises."

Anonymous said...

anon 7:46

For your better understanding "Basij" in Iran is the equivalent of the US "National Guard" absolutely nothing more and nothing less.

They are workers, bakers, shoemakers,bankers and etc.
What you call scum are actually people who have registered by their local Mosques and rush to places in need of help, like earthquake centers and floods and etc.Like the national Guard of the USA in New Orleans.

Now, should you think to know better, because you read in some second class magazine of these poor buggers having anything to do with your lonely misreable life in the USA then, rest assured your/they are wrong.


Anonymous said...

To the juvenile comment by anon January 23, 2011 7:46 AM

You obviously are not familiar with Iranian culture or political/military dynamics. The Sepah and Artesh (regular military) are the prime defenders of Iran with an illustrious military history including the staunch defence of Iranian soil. The Basij as correctly pointed out by Illuminati is akin to the National Guard or People's Army and serves as an auxiliary to the Sepah in times of need. I would suggest that you quit insulting patriotic Iranians and learn something about Iran's history and politics. If it were not for the Sepah, Artesh and Basij, Iran would have been swallowed up by the then darling of the "west" crazy Saddam and now the Zionist thugs. Making anti-Iran statements may ease your frustrations but will not make one iota of difference to Iranian government or its stability.

Anonymous said...

Dear Nader,
As the dean of this excellent blog, how can you be so naive? "..we can make some compromises, like fuel swap, especially if we are not after making the bomb immediately?" Do you not know your history?
When a cowboy asks you to make an impossible compromise that he will not make himself, run for the hills! If you don't believe me, talk to the native Americans. How many peace treaties did they sign only to find out that they speak with forked-tongues.
The unreasonable demand is a test of capitulation or weakness. Once you capitulate, your ass will be sore when you wake up the NEXT day.


Anonymous said...

To Illuminati, You only defend Basji, but say nothing
to deny anonymous correct statements abut the evil Khamenei, who is surely robbing the people of Iran's
oil riches. Do you not think that all Iranian people should benefit ? Why are you so ignorant, do you really think that Iran can continue this way ?
It is 5 minutes to 12 my friend. it will go ..

Anonymous said...

with the protests in Tunisia , Egypt, Iranian government is getting scared, look at press tv and see the lack of reports. why is that ?

Anonymous said...

last 2 anons,

Khamenei can be voted out of power twice every year, he is no monarch like the ex shah.
every 8 years there are elections to choose those who observe and judge khamenei.
Evil or not he is like every other political leader, with friends and enemies
I dont care about his friends and certainly dont care about his enemies like you

last anon...Have you ever thought that all those regimes falling apart happen to be anti Iranian regimes ??!!

go get a life dude.