Tuesday, November 26, 2013

Bargaining Theory and Iran Deal


Erik Voeten, a professor at Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service, has written a noteworthy piece in The Washington Post on challenges ahead in getting final deal between Iran and P5+1. It applies political science bargaining theory to the nuclear talks.

“It seems like there is no overlap in bargaining positions. Yet, everyone knows that there is an agreement that both would prefer to war. Indeed, the Iranian government probably prefers no enrichment to war, given that they would almost certainly lose a violent contest badly. But it may also believe that the U.S. would prefer a deal that allows some enrichment facilities over going to war. Such a deal would be better for Iran than simply conceding. Neither side has an incentive to reveal precisely how much it is truly willing to compromise and even if it did, the other side might not believe it,” Voeken writes. (The Washington Post, 24 November)

To read the article, please click here.

File photos: Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif (L) and U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry (AFP/AP)

5 comments:

Mark Pyruz said...

Mark my words, this piece in WAPO will look silly in November 2014.

Anonymous said...

The fact that every one think America wins all the wars is at best very wrong: think of all the large scale wars America has won thru its history none. when the other side was willing to fight think and do against USA.
WWII was won simply because Russia was willing to suffer more then 10 million causality's to in return pulverise the German military in to a hallow shell stretched over 5000kms of lines with 5 million men more then 80% of its total force for the UK and USA to come marching in the back door and claim victory .....

Nader Uskowi said...

Why?

Anonymous said...

Anon at 5:55 PM

Very good points, and one has to notice and acknowledge that the time works against the West and so called "Western civilization".

In 100 years or so, someone can see the artifacts of that " and the zionists' civilizations", like the other, passed, civilizations are is seen in examples of the Pantheon or the Collosseum in Rome.

The most "happy" expectations for a scenario of the future Geneva talks, in the next stage, will be a renewal of the present temporary (6 month) agreement and .......increased abilities of the Iranian and Russian militaries, due to the significant time passages...

The worst case scenario will be the premature cancellation of the deal, should the American Zionists and others, would make more threats and accompanying actions...

The deal is also unofficially connected to developments in Syria, which strenghten Assad's, Iranian as well as Russian hands in their actions.....


A-F

B.M.A said...

IT is indeed true.