Wednesday, June 29, 2011

Dress Rehearsal

By Paul Iddon

Are the UAE and Qatar Emiri Air Forces using the NATO intervention in Libya they are partaking in as a dress rehearsal of sorts for a possible future attack against Iran they may have to undertake if they feel directly threatened?

U.A.E. F-16 Fighting Falcon.
On June 7th 1981 a strike package of Israeli F-16's escorted by F-15's managed to successfully knock out the Iraqi Osirak reactor. While rebuked by the United Nations for carrying out this action the Israelis stated they believed the reactor would be operational in less than a month and soon after that have given the Iraqis a nuclear bomb of their own, a bomb that Saddam Hussein would have either found an early occasion to actually detonate or simply use as blackmail against either Israel or Iran.

While this Operation Opera raid carried out by the Israelis is often cited as the epitome of a preventive strike it is often forgotten that the Iranians themselves had attempted to knock out the Osirak reactor with their air force but had failed in their attempts. Therefore when the Israelis finally carried out their strike there was a collective sigh of relief in Iran that the man who had launched an invasion the year before with a force of 70,000 soldiers that attempted to pillage Iran's southern oil fields had been prevented from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

Today it is clear as pointed out by Nader Uskowi that the Persian Gulf is changing, the Saudis have for some time now have been calling for the United States to attack Iran metaphorically comparing such an attack to cutting “off the head of the snake.”

These statements accompany numerous reports in the past two years that claim the Saudi Kingdom had stated they will allow Israeli jets to cross through Saudi air space to strike Iran's nuclear program, this shows the evident paranoia and refusal to accept a nuclear Iran, which is why the Emirate GCC (Gulf Cooperative Council) states are allying their military forces in an alliance against what they perceive as the common foe, a nuclear armed Islamic Republic of Iran.

Historically the United Arab Emirates and Qatar were born after the end of the British protectorate on the Trucial states in 1971, that same year Iran claimed and seized the Three Islands in the Persian Gulf of which the UAE claims as its own, the clear distrust and distaste has led to several of these Emirate states challenging the historical name of the Persian Gulf, instead opting to call it the Arabian Gulf disregarding Iran as having even a significant say in its own backyard. However they do not disregard Iran militarily and fear it becoming a nuclear power that could in turn elbow itself into playing a large role in how they conduct their affairs, by forcing them to appease the Islamic Republic by blackmailing them with the possibility of otherwise having the wrath of a larger regional nuclear power bestowed upon them.

The UAE and Qatari air forces conducting military operations against Colonel Gaddafi's forces in Libya are operating from Sardinia and Crete respectively flying combat sorties alongside NATO air forces across the Mediterranean. This is mildly similar to the kind of operation they'd fly against Iran as with Iran they'd be crossing the Persian Gulf to more than likely prevent the kind of scenario I outlined above by knocking out the Bushehr reactor, which is near the Gulf coast.*

I would also guess such a strike would be carried out with a large amount of fighter bombers, similar to the Package Q strike carried out the United States Air Force in the 1991 Persian Gulf War, which saw a strike package of some 56 F-16's rain bombs on Iraq's nuclear complex in Baghdad. 

If one thing is clear at the end of the day, and that is while the Saudis may invest billions of dollars worth of military hardware into its own military arsenal it still isn't completely capable of effectively defending itself, the other Emirate coastal Gulf states, however, have a substantial deterrent in their growing ability to be capable of in one foul scoop knocking out one of Iran's main nuclear facilities within a matter of minutes, which would substantially set back the countries nuclear ambitions and capabilities and prevent it from further threatening its Gulf neighbours with its nuclear wrath.

* If conducted while the plant is operational such an attack would be dangerous for both the Emirate countries and Iran as such a strike against an operational reactor may spew radioactive material across Iran and the neighbouring Emirate states that would have carried out the attack to begin with.


Gifted one said...

Fantastic post. Literally. Deserves a reprint at

mat said...

The Zionist Regime State of Israel [ZRSI] with the consent of the U.S. could simply and easily strike those suspected Iraq and Syria's [those weak, helpless and defenceless nations] nuclear reactors in 1981 and 2007, respectively. But, instead, it will be a nightmare for the ZRSI to plan any strike to any of Iran's peaceful nuclear energy installations which is due to its most powerful military defense capabilities in the whole region of the middle-east.

Anonymous said...

Since when has Iran threatened its neighbors?

Paul Iddon, you should try to write for debka.

Nader, it is a shame you allow such people to post on your blog.

Anonymous said...

The Saudi's don't dear to attack Iran on their own , let alone the Emerati's or the Qatari's .

Unknown Unknowns said...

We have a healthy quantity of fly-swatters recently delivered to the army, together with a new "kaf-gir" for the army chef to chase away the tinpot oilwells-with-a-flag.

To even think that these "nations" could attack Iran in absurd. Nader: what were you thinking? Kindly remove and dispose of the aluminum foil hat.

Anonymous said...

Nader Uskowi is not an patriot Iranian . Serving Zionists' purposes is not a good thing to do .Saudi and other "Royal family" members will be sent to ICC immediately after the oil being finished , Saddam was also hanged even though he used US made chemical weapons on Iranians and not to mention that people like Nader Uskowi ,Paul Iddon were dancing and laughing hearing this at that time . Talking about other countries may attack "his country Iran" and jumping with happiness after propagating these worthless news to some heartless people means "NADER USKOWI IS NOT AN IRANIAN" . And no one will attack Iran except Israel , US with some NATO members and propaganda machine Nader Uskowi & CO.

Anonymous said...

Gifted one,

Could you please enlighten us as to why you find this piece a "fantastic post"?

In my opinion the author has made two wrong assumptions. First, that these fiefdoms in the Persian Gulf are independent entities and can act as they please and second, that they can operate the expensive toys sold to them by their masters.

It is no exaggeration to state that the fastest way to empty these fiefdoms of their gastarbeiters on whom they literally depend on everything and for their so-called "Royal Families" to scurry to their mansions in Europe and elsewhere, is for the Iranian military to land a few of their missiles, not necessarily their most sophisticated ones, on them.

It is also my considered opinion that the author of this screed should go out more often and get more fresh air.

Gifted one said...

Paul is entitled to his own ideas, and his contributions are both valid and welcome.
I pity the GCC state that decides to take on Iran, although no doubt, the US and NATO will come eventually to their aid, whatever monarch decides to attack Iran pre-emtively had better have his running shoes on, and can kiss his reign goodbye. The idea that the GCC would undertake a task that has deterred both the US and Israel is a complete non-starter to me!
They'll find out the hard way what happened to Georgia when it decided to take on Russia urged on by hubris fueled by US neocons, and Israeli arms.
The Guardian jumps headfirst unto any passing anti-Iran bandwagon but their recent article about Saudi warnings on Iran is hilarious. I guess when the Saudis say they'll "build" a nuke what they really mean is they'll buy one or two off Pakistan.
Funny how these Saudi sectarian racist nincompoops find an Iranian nuke intolerable, but are happy to live under an Israeli nuclear umbrella.

Anonymous said...

The Arabs of the Persian Gulf .. are pretending to be enthusiastic about the US rhetoric. .. come on guys.. they would not risk their buildings and Oil fields to please the US/Israelis... they buy the arms because they have to pay the protection money...
you all know this and you pretend this masquerade to be authentic.. !

there is a limit they are ready to go and no further.... a country that even imports its street sweepers has no pride and morale to go to war my friends..

reader said...

There is an interesting article in today’s Guardian ( in which Prince Turki al-Faisal quoted in saying that if Iran came close to developing nuclear weapons Riyadh would not stand idly by. I don’t think these guys have got a clue as to what it takes to master some of the foundation technologies necessary for developing an independent nuclear deterrent . I have yet to come across a single scientist from Saudi, Qatar and UAE who have made slightest impression in the world of science and technology. Their ability to buy high tech weaponry from the west is not matched by their ability to use them effectively to mount a sustained attack on Iran. I fail to understand why on earth they should see Iran as a threat when there is a 800 lb gorilla in the room with an estimated 200-300 nuclear weapons with a proven history of aggression and occupation against their fellow Arabs.

Scythian said...

Anonymous is right that the Emirate states can't do it on their own.

Unless the Emirate States receive assistance from the U.S., going at it alone carries too much risk since the Emirate airfoce will have to deal with Iranian SAMs and MiG-29 fleet. These Iranian assets can inflict a lot of damage in addition to lowering the probability of success against Iran and that's not even including Iran's counterattack capability such as the ballistic missile forces which can deal even more damage against them.

That said, the rulers from Emirate countries are rational and they will not commit to a mission that they know that will bring the end of their reign.

Also, Paul mentioned about the potential nuclear fallout from a strike against an operational reactor. This is another reason why Emirate states won't dare to contemplate such as an attack against Iran.

Anonymous said...

Paul with all due respect, I hope this is SATIRE. UAE and Qatar have a population of local Bedouins less than 1.5 million combined. DO YOU REALY THINK THEY CAN "ATTACK" IRAN? Knowing Iranian retalitaion capability that would turn these puppet pimpdoms into dust with minutes. Remember these oil pimps have to live next to 75 million Iranians till eternity, so if the Zionists chickened out I would seriously doubt that these pathetic bedouins who depend of Pakistani mercenray pilots would be undertaking collective suicide soon. I hope you were sober when you wrote this comedy? Let's keep it real. Even the two lonely ladies at the low rent Tel-Aviv DEBKA rumor mill would be chuckling at this.

Anonymous said...

GCC should not be underestimated , with all their modern weaponry they can pack a punch .

Anonymous said...

@ Last anon.

underestimated or overestimated... what possible interrest should they have to start a war with Iran which would devestate their economies .. and Irans by that matter.

only to fight Israels fight ?

could you imagine what their populations would do ?

1/3 of Saudis are Shia... Bahrin is in turmoil... Kuwait is .. come on.. more Iranians than Arabs there.. Qatar ?? kidding me ?... UAE.. with Irans 300 000 people there.. sabotage and terror would become legitimate and UAE would lose house high..

...and should you Think Iran would lie down and let them walk over it... :)

Always remember who you are talking about.

Anonymous said...

After having a hearty laugh, I think it would be good to have a serious realistic look at UAE and Qatari "airforces" and their capabilities. Let's start with Qatar, it is a tiny petro-gas pimpdom with less than 150,000 local bedouins and with only two functioning airbases DOHA-OTBD (both civil/military) and a solely military base in the south of the tiny emirate at Al Udaid (OTBH). The Qatari airforce in reality is headed by a seconded Pakistani Air-Commodore. It currently operates around 11 Mirage 2000-5DDA
Mirage 2000-5EDA. (One recently crashed off the coast of Italy near the NATO base at Lampedusa participating in the failing NATO war for oil in Libya). Qatar also has a few Alpha-Jet E trainers and some French and US helicopters.

Qatar being a prime US base in the Persian Gulf is also a complete puppet and recently dispatched 4 Mirage 2000 DDA for the NATO war on Libya. However, the quality of the Qatari pilots can be judged by the fact that they flew to Italy with only internal fuel tanks, without air-refueling capability and ran out of juice near Cyprus and had to land at Larnaca to get gas. Then in the first week one of Qatari pilots misjudged the length of the NATO airfield and flew his Mirage into the Mediterranean. So in all fairness and jokes aside, Qatari Airforce is beyond a JOKE and poses a threat only to itself. In any case Iranian short range (300 kms and inexpensive) ZEL-ZAL missiles would make short work of the two Qatari airbases and Doha would look like a parking lot.

Now let's examine another Arab "airforce" comedy, namely UAE. Most of the UAE airforce is manned by expats (US, UK and French) and Pakistani mercenary pilots on the eighty new Block 60 F-16s that are officially designated F-16E/F. These Fighting Falcons were delivered from 2004 through 2007. The UAE has an outstanding order for 30 Mirage 2000-9 aircraft, a customized version of the 2000-5 with additional air to ground capabilities. About another 24 Mirages of dubious technical condition are also operated by foriegn pilots. All maintenance is also done by foreign contractors.

There are 5 major airbases namely Abu Dhabi/Bateen
Al Ain
Abu Dhabi/Al Dhafra
Safran AB

There are additional US,UK, French and even third rate nations like Canada have a base in UAE.

Another interesting fact is that 90% of UAE population is foriegn born or slave Asian labor and thus not a very mighty strategic mass to engage in suicidal war against Iran. UAE also has half a million Iranians living there.

So in all realistic scenarios, the probability of UAE or Qatar engaging in a war of collective suicide against Iran has the same probability as a 33 year old Zionist "impending" attack.

Iran has enough deterrent power to turn these pip-squeak pimpdoms into dust. All their weaponry is in foreign hands and their own population is still stuck in the camel ages, enjoying whipping poor Pakistani and South Asain child camel jockeys at the grand Dubai camel races. So rest assured, these idiots can buy anything but it still won't amount to anything.

These tiny emirates are barely a 100 kms from Iran and even within range of Iranian base bleed artillery at most points across the Persian Gulf, so even missiles are not needed. Once their airbases and infrastructure are knocked out where will they go? This is the factual military situation in the Persian Gulf, where Iran is indeed the master.