Sunday, June 12, 2011

Ahmadinejad’s Presidency at Impasse

Two Years After Winning Controversial Election, Iranian President on the Verge of Becoming Irrelevant

By Nader Uskowi

On 12 June 2009, this blog headlined, Iranians Voting in Droves. Minutes after the polls closed, Ahmadinejad was declared the winner by a landslide. Mousavi’s supporters suspected massive fraud and took to streets by hundreds of thousands in what became known as the Green Movement. The supreme leader threw his support behind the embattled president, joined by the clerical and military establishment, and the Greens were defeated. Looking back at those hot summer months of 2009, Ahmadinejad’s government, fresh from winning the popular election, and actively supported by Khamenei, senior clerics and the IRGC leadership, seemed invincible. But in a span of two short years, the most powerful of his supporters, the clerical establishment and the IRGC leadership, have turned against him. Ironically, the ultra conservative circles in the Islamic Republic are completing what the Greens failed to do: isolating Ahmadinejad and making him and his government irrelevant.

Ahmadinejad is a fighter and writing him off completely might not be a prudent move on part of his new enemies. But the odds are stacked against him. His supporters, headed by his political confidant and chief of staff, are branded as “deviationists” and the calls for their imprisonment and trial on charges of working against the interests of the Islamic Republic and the Shia faith are becoming louder by the day. Ahmadinejad is given a choice: break away from Mashaie & Co. and continue as president for the remaining two years, a presidency as irrelevant as the last two years of Khatami's. Or be impeached from office and probably arrested along with Mashaie and the rest of the gang. Not an easy choice, and not an enviable position to be in, but that’s how brutal the politics in the Islamic Republic have become.


Anonymous said...

Well, green was the chosen color for Mousavi. When Mousavi was defeated, he and Karoubi cried foul. So their supporters were led to believe they were cheated. However, Mousavi's claims didn't hold up to scrutiny:

Likewise all the credible public opinion polls taken after the election mirror the official result, so the other branches of government as well as law enforcement and investigative services appear to be upholding the democratic outcome of the election, and supported in these efforts by a 3:1 majority:

The nature of Iran's government has always been factional. But it should be pointed out that at the recent anniversary of Imam Khomeini's passing, both Khameni and Ahmadinejad offered conciliatory remarks before a large crowd of tens of thousands of supporters.

Anonymous said...

today is the anniversary of election of 2009, aND WE ARE IN THE middle of araab upraising, but iran is calm.
nobody , even Tehran High, middle class the strongest mussavi supporter are not gonig to the street.
The Ecelction of 2009 was free and fair and Ahmadi nejad is the iran legitimne president.

if he becomes in the last 1-2 years a lame duck is not neither important nor unusual . That is buisness of usual in systems hat president should leave after two terms.
The Iran is not Ahmadi nejad, khamenie, khatami or other individual person.
Ian is a culture, a relgion and an idea.

reader said...

Ahamadinejad's position has become increasing unattainable and unlike the ruling clerics, and to some degree the Green Movement, he has no independent grass root support to mount a serious challenge to those undermining his authority. The sooner he goes the better for Iran and his achievements and legacy, if any.

The clerical ruling system needs reform more than any other time in its existence. If an orderly political reform is not forthcoming while Khamanie is alive, the inevitable factional fight within the ruling elites could bring a revolutionary rather than an evolutionary change to the system.

Anonymous said...

more economic news: