Thursday, February 17, 2011

New NIE on Iran

The Wall Street Journal reports today that a new National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) by the US intelligence community concludes that Iran’s leadership is split over whether to develop nuclear weapons and locked in a heated internal debate on how to proceed with the country’s nuclear program in the face of international sanctions.

The new NIE, updating an older version prepared in 2007, says Iran likely has resumed work on nuclear weapons research in addition to its uranium enrichment program. The NIE, however, does not conclude that Iran has resumed a full-blown program to build the bomb [The Wall Street Journal, 17 February].

"The bottom line is that the intelligence community has concluded that there's an intense debate inside the Iranian regime on the question of whether or not to move toward a nuclear bomb," a US official told The Journal. "There's a strong sense that a number of Iranian regime officials know that the sanctions are having a serious effect."

An NIE is considered the consensus view of all US intelligence agencies. The director of National Intelligence reported the new assessment to Congress.

"We continue to assess Iran is keeping the option open to develop nuclear weapons in part by developing various nuclear capabilities that better position it to produce such weapons should it choose to do so," National Intelligence Director James Clapper told the Senate Intelligence Committee. "We do not know, however, if Iran will eventually decide to build nuclear weapons" [AP, 17 February].

"We see a disturbing confluence of events — an Iran that is increasingly rigid, autocratic, dependent on coercion to maintain control and defiant toward the West, and an Iran that continues to advance its uranium enrichment capabilities along with what appears to be the scientific, technical and industrial capacity to produce nuclear weapons if its leaders choose to do so," Clapper added.


Anonymous said...

No need to read it because, it is supposed to take the heat of the US allied Arabs and bring attention to Iran and the old boogieman.

gonna be BS like the ones before.

Anonymous said...

More US/Zionist desperation as their anti-Iran destabilization plans FAIL. This NIE is usual nonsense by clueless US morons who feed this type of group think fantasies to each other and their Zionist masters. They know JACK about Eyeran.LOL.

Anonymous said...

Ahmadinejad has got it RIGHT:

Resistance against Israel only way to save world nations: Ahmadinejad

TEHRAN, Feb. 15 (MNA) – President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Tuesday that resistance against the Zionist regime and disclosing its crimes is the only way to save the nations of the world.
Ahmadinejad made the remarks in a meeting with a group of supporters of the Mavi Marmara, the aid ship that tried to break the blockade on Gaza in 2010. However, the ship was attacked by Israeli troops in the international waters in the Mediterranean.

Ahmadinejad said the Israeli attack showed the true face of Israel to the world and prevented the regime supporters from defending it.

The Zionist regime showed that it breaks international law easily and does not believe in any humanitarian campaign, he noted.

Commenting on the existence of the Zionist regime, he said the Western hegemonistic powers, which had tried to dominate the world, created the Zionist regime in order to sow discords between the regional nations and maintain their power and influence on the region.

The president went on to say that that the Zionist regime’s short history is full of murders, threats and occupation, adding it has put pressure on those countries that want to act independently and pursue their interests.

He said the Zionist regime has become the most sacred issue in the West in a way that insulting God and his messengers are allowed in certain Western countries but speaking against the Zionist regime is prohibited.

Elsewhere in his talks, the president said all terrorist acts in the region are masterminded by the Zionist regime.

Persicus Maximus said...

Are we talking about the same NIE (reps of 17 intelligence agencies) who were time and time again wrong.

The NIE that was once again caught off guard at the recent Middle East crisis?

Anonymous said...

The CIA and most western agencies are made-up of incesteous bureaucratic arse-kissers who are too scared to really go an live in the Muslim world or speak any languages. The CIA and the pompous deadbeat Brits got the 1979 Iranian revolution wrong as well as every event major since then, including the so-called 911 farce. These losers in Langley get their "intelligence" or lack of it, from Iranian exiles, MEKand other desperates who are prone to wild exaggeration and have their own axe to grind against Iran.

The simple fact is that the US and its "intelligence" knows practically nothing about Iran and its upper leadership decision making process. I would doubt it that a CIA,DGSE, BND or MI6 agent would be sitting in on the deliberations of the Rahbar and the top clerics, disguised as an Ayatollah from Detroit.

The pathetic plight of the US around the world and the economic meltdown at home is a glowing testament to the failure of US "intelligence" at all levels, let alone on Eyeran ( and I being very kind here).LOL.

Mark Pyruz said...

Would like to know exactly who is involved in this "heated debate" and where they stand.

Nader Uskowi said...

I love to know the names too! But as you know that kind of info is deleted from the summary of the NIE, the part that gets out.

One interesting note: in 2007 we ran the report of the then-NIE on this blog. The reaction to the NIE was generally positive by the commentators to this blog and other Iran-related blogs, as it said Iran had stopped nuclear weapons programs in 2003. This NIE says Iran has resumed research on weapons program and can re-launch its weapons program if leaders so decide. We and other blogs are getting negative reactions, saying NIE are wrong. I guess he process is questioned when we don't agree with the conclusion.

Anonymous said...


welcome to the way the western media acts.

If they dont agree with a movement !, then a million man march is thousands of protesters...... if on the other side, they are pro something, then the latest protests in Tehran were described as tens of thousands of people protested.

:), and you wonder why the world is chan ging despite of the reportings

Anonymous said...

@ Mark, my guess is that in this "heated debate" probably there are some elements in the Sepah and Artesh who would want the full nuclear option and many hardline figures in the senior leadership would have similar views considering the threats and security dimensions Iran faces.

Anonymous said...

Calling every report another CIA plot seems a little easy, the fact that iran governement faces internal debate is more then probable its almost a certainty... the country is being sanctionned over their head of course some deputees will want to change their strategy when seeing their people starved by this embargo... Im not saying they cant resist the sanction simply that one must not think every one in parliament will agree, unless this is even more of a dictature then i thought(something all the anti-western propaganda hooligans certainly dont seem to agree with)

Anonymous said...

There is no more pro western nation than the Iranians.

NIE is Bullshit, was, is and shall be. ... get over it.

It only causes news debates to divert attention from a Middle East swaying towards Iran.

Live with it.


Nader Uskowi said...

Between December 2007 and now we've had two NIEs with different conclusions on Iran's nuclear weapons program. The 2007 one said Iran has ended the program. The 2011 one says Iran has resumed the research on nuclear weapons and can relaunch the program if directed by the leadership. In 2007, President Ahmadinejad had a positive take on the NIE, and was quoted in our own post at the time:

“On its face, the report that they publicized yesterday is aimed at solving the American administration’s problem – to allow the American administration to get past and extricate itself from the problems and the impasse in which it is caught. In fact, however, it is a declaration of the victory of the Iranian nation in the nuclear affair in the face of all the world powers.” [IRINN, 5 December 2007].

Notwithstanding some of the comments made in this post, the NIEs could shape the US foreign policy, and as Ahmadinejad had said it could affect the relations between the two countries, so much so that he saw the old NIE as a victory for the Iranian people.

Now that the conclusion is different, we get different takes on its relevancy.