U.S. Has ‘Eyes’ and ‘Visibility’ Inside Iran Nuclear Program – White House

The White House spokesman Jay Carney told reporters today that the U.S. had “eyes” and “visibility” inside Iran’s nuclear program and would know if Tehran had made a “breakout” move toward acquiring a nuclear weapon.

Carney again declined to comment on Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak’s suggestion that President Obama has received a new NIE on Iran’s nuclear program, classifying the threat as “urgent.” But Carney said that the U.S. and Israel were in agreement on the state of Iran’s nuclear program.

White House: No Comment on New NIE on Iran

White House spokesman Jay Carney said today he could not “comment on intelligence matters or intelligence reports the president may or may not have received.” Carney made the comments in response to questions about the existence on a new National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran’s nuclear program, as reported by Israeli daily Haaretz and confirmed by Defense Minister Ehud Barak.

Earlier today, Barak had confirmed Haaretz's report that President Obama recently received a new NIE on the Iranian nuclear program, which shares Israel's view that Iran has made significant progress toward military nuclear capability, bringing the U.S. position on the matter closer to that of Israel and raising the urgency of the issue. (Haaretz, 9 August).

Ehud Barak Says U.S. Has New Intelligence on Iran in Line with Israel's

Israel's Defense Minister Ehud Barak “confirmed” a report published by Haaretz that the U.S. has new intelligence that changes the American assessment of the imminent danger represented by Iran's nuclear program, bringing its views closer to those held by Israel. Haaretz published Barak’s comments today.

"As far as we know it brings the American assessment much closer to ours ... it makes the Iranian issue even more urgent and (shows it is) less clear and certain that we will know everything in time about their steady progress toward military nuclear capability," Barak said. (CBS News, 9 August)

(Please see a related post below)

New NIE on Iran

The Wall Street Journal reports today that a new National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) by the US intelligence community concludes that Iran’s leadership is split over whether to develop nuclear weapons and locked in a heated internal debate on how to proceed with the country’s nuclear program in the face of international sanctions.

The new NIE, updating an older version prepared in 2007, says Iran likely has resumed work on nuclear weapons research in addition to its uranium enrichment program. The NIE, however, does not conclude that Iran has resumed a full-blown program to build the bomb [The Wall Street Journal, 17 February].

"The bottom line is that the intelligence community has concluded that there's an intense debate inside the Iranian regime on the question of whether or not to move toward a nuclear bomb," a US official told The Journal. "There's a strong sense that a number of Iranian regime officials know that the sanctions are having a serious effect."

An NIE is considered the consensus view of all US intelligence agencies. The director of National Intelligence reported the new assessment to Congress.

"We continue to assess Iran is keeping the option open to develop nuclear weapons in part by developing various nuclear capabilities that better position it to produce such weapons should it choose to do so," National Intelligence Director James Clapper told the Senate Intelligence Committee. "We do not know, however, if Iran will eventually decide to build nuclear weapons" [AP, 17 February].

"We see a disturbing confluence of events — an Iran that is increasingly rigid, autocratic, dependent on coercion to maintain control and defiant toward the West, and an Iran that continues to advance its uranium enrichment capabilities along with what appears to be the scientific, technical and industrial capacity to produce nuclear weapons if its leaders choose to do so," Clapper added.

New National Intelligence Estimate on Iran Expected

Gen. David Petraeus, the commander of US forces in Near East and Central Asia, told NBC’s “Meet the Press” on Sunday that a new national intelligence estimate on Iran’s nuclear program was being developed.

"There is... a new national intelligence estimate being developed by our intelligence community in the United States," he said [AFP, 21 February].

In 2007, the US intelligence community released a surprising national intelligence estimate (NIE) saying Iran had halted its research on developing nuclear weapon capabilities in 2003. The report ended widespread speculations in the media that the US was ready to take military action against Iranian nuclear facilities. Gen. Petraeus did not say if the new NIE would contain references to any ongoing nuclear weapon programs in Iran.

Gen. Petraeus said however that the US is raising the stakes in its bid to halt Iran’s nuclear program by choosing a “pressure track” as opposed to a diplomatic one.

"I think that no one at the end of this time can say that the United States and the rest of the world have not given Iran every opportunity to resolve the issues diplomatically.

"That puts us in a solid foundation now to go on what is termed the pressure track. That's the course on which we are embarked now," Petraeus said.

No New NIE on Iran

US National Intelligence Deputy Director Donald Kerr said on Thursday that the US intelligence community has no plans to revise the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran anytime soon.

Reuters quotes the official as saying, however, that the current NIE reflects “significant concerns” over Iran’s nuclear intentions that has been overlooked in public debate.

Easing Banking Restrictions

Reports from Tehran indicate that during a recent trip to China, an Iranian delegation of businessmen signed a memorandum of understanding with major Chinese banks to ease the banking restrictions on Iranian financial transactions (ISNA, 17 December).

The Bush administration’s policy of sanctioning Iranian banks, especially against Bank Melli, Iran’s premier commercial bank, seems to have run into stiff resistance by the Chinese as well as the Russian and Arab banks. The US wants to add Bank Melli to the list of sanctioned Iranian entities in a new UN Security Council sanction resolution early next year. China and Russia can bloc the move.

The new US NIE seems to have opened la lot of doors for Iran. The Russians started delivering enriched uranium to Bushehr nuclear reactor today. The Iranians did sign a $2 billion oil contract with the Chinese. And the resistance against further banking restrictions on Iran should be viewed in this light. The NIE has changed everything!

Tehran: NIE Revisited

The US intelligence community’s latest NIE on Iran was initially welcomed by Iranian officials. President Ahmadinejad called it “the greatest victory in Iran’s history in this century.” In the week that followed, a number of politicians and the media began to reassess the effect of the NIE. Iran's Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki stated that only 70% of the NIE is "correct." The moderate press warned against premature celebration of a report that has accused Iran of illicit nuclear activities until 2003.

In one of the biggest reversals in the history of US intelligence, the new NIE said Iran did not have a bomb and it was not working on a bomb. Ahmadinejad immediately declared victory and expected to receive unqualified praise from all politicians. On the eve of all-important parliamentary elections, he also wanted to use the occasion to solidify his hold on power. Things did not quite turn out that way. Ahmad Tavakoli, and influential conservative member of Majlis, wrote an open letter to Ahmadinejad questioning the wisdom of “expressing boundless joy” with regard to the NIE.

Tavakoli argued that the NIE had accused Iran of illegal nuclear weapon activities in the past. Tavakoli also took exception with the wisdom of government’s pro- International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) stance. He warned Ahmadinejad that the government’s unqualified praise of the IAEA can backfire soon. It was the IAEA after all that had originally referred Iran’s case to the UNSC. Tavakoli’s letter was approvingly quoted in the more moderate and liberal press.

Comments by the US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates at a conference in Bahrain fueled the concerns in Tehran. Gates attacked Iran’s foreign policy for its destabilizing effects in the region and called it a threat to the national interests of the United States. “Everywhere you turn, it is the policy of Iran to foment instability and chaos, no matter the strategic value or cost in the blood of innocents — Christians, Jews and Muslims alike,” said Gates. The American defense chief also called on Iran to immediately suspend its uranium enrichment program and vow to never again resume its nuclear weapon program.

A day earlier, the commander of US naval forces in the region had warned against the Iranian threat. US Vice Admiral Kevin Cosgriff, Commander of US Naval Forces Central Command (NAVCENT), had emphasized his concern by saying, “I wake up thinking about Iran, I go to bed thinking about Iran.”

Tehran is starting to realize that the NIE might not have been an occasion for “boundless joy.” It is yet to be seen if Ahmadinejad’s early enthusiasm about the report, however, would translate into more moderation in his foreign policies and a move towards reconciliation with the West

News from Iran

The publication of US national Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran’s nuclear program dominated the coverage in the local media. The NIE said Iran does not have a bomb and is not working on a bomb. President Ahmadinejad called NIE a victory for Iran and said its publication was a step in the right direction in mending relations with Iran. In general, the Iranian officials and the media have welcomed the NIE. Some conservative dailies, however, warned against pre-mature celebration. They warned that NIE has indeed accused Iran of working on a bomb until 2003. The supreme leader also has unusually remained silent on the NIE. On regional developments, Ahmadinejad came under attack for his participation at the summit of the leaders of Persian Gulf countries. Aftab Yazd protested against summit communiqué calling on Iran to return its three islands to UAE. The use of the words “Arabian Gulf” instead of “Persian Gulf” by the Arab leaders at the summit was also a main point of contention. On economic front, Iran and China signed a $2-billion contract to develop an oil field in Iran. The media saw the contract as a first sign of the crumbling sanctions in the aftermath of NIE publication.

NIE and Iran’s Nuclear program

· Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad called US National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) “a victory for Iran” ; Ahmadinejad said the NIE put seal of approval on civilian nature of Iran's nuclear activities ; he added the reports released by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the US intelligence community removed any ambiguity about Iranian nuclear program; Ahmadinejad said NIE conclusion on peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear program was “a step forward” in mending relations with Iran.
· Iran’s Minister of Defense Brig. Gen. Mostafa Mohammad Najjar said there were many positive points in US NIE; Gen. Najjar said however Iran was never after developing nuclear weapons.
· Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini said nuclear energy is a vital and urgent need of Iran; Hosseini added the legitimate rights of Iran to develop nuclear energy for peaceful purposes are not negotiable.
· President Ahmadinejad said a new round of sanctions against Iran over its nuclear program would have no legal basis; US is pushing for a third round of UN sanctions despite a new NIE; Ahmadinejad said he does not think any new resolutions will be on the way.
· Iran and China signed a $2 billion contract to develop an oil field regarded as an indication of crumbling sanctions against Iran in aftermath of publication of NIE.
· US President George Bush demanded Iran explain nuclear program; President Bush called on Iran to explain why it had a secretive nuclear program; he called Iran a “dangerous” country.
· Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said Iran's nuclear program is still dangerous; Olmert emphasized the NIE gives estimates of when Iran can acquire a nuclear weapon; Olmert said Iran is continuing its production of enriched uranium and ballistic missiles needed for a nuclear weapon program; Olmert added Iran could have the bomb by 2010.
· IAEA team arrived in Tehran for nuclear talks; talks were expected to focus on traces of weapon-grade enriched uranium found by IAEA inspectors at Tehran's Technical University.

US-Iran Relations

· President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said if US follow the step they have taken with their new NIE by making changes in their policies in the region, they will see immediate and positive results coming from Iran.
· President Ahmadinejad said he still wanted a debate with his US counterpart President Bush over world developments; Ahmadinejad first proposed such debate in September; the proposal is still on the table, he said.
· Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini said US seeks to dominate energy sources of the Persian Gulf region; Hossieni said providing security for Israel, escalating arms race in the region, and making regional countries suspicious of Iran were among main goals of US; he added if US changes its policies on Iran, the grounds for expansion of political and economic relations between the two countries would be prepared.
· US built an observation base on Iraq-Iran border near Iraqi town of Badrah to monitor flows of goods and people from Iran; Maj. Gen. Rick Lynch, Commander of US 3rd ID, said containing Iran “is now clearly part of US military mission”; Gen. Lynch labeled Iran’s policies in Iraq “destabilizing”; Iran has four official border crossings with Iraq.
· US Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff Adm. Mike Mullen met Israel’s defense minister and armed forces commander on Iran; Adm. Mullen’s spokesman said Iran is among the subjects discussed.

Leading Regional Storylines

· Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Iran welcomed Iraq's new proposal to develop a regional security pact among all countries bordering the Persian Gulf.
· Iran’s President Ahmadinejad described the recent Gulf Cooperation Council Summit in Qatar as very positive and constructive; he advised GCC critics to abandon pessimistic approaches and be realistic.
· Director of an influential Iranian think-tank, Mohammad Javad Larijani, defended Ahmadinejad's participation in summit of leaders of Persian Gulf countries in Doha; Member of Parliament Ahmad Tavakoli had criticized Ahmadinejad for going to Doha; Tavakoli protested against summit communiqué against Iran’s ownership of three islands claimed by UAE; Doha critics also protested against use of “Arabian Gulf” instead of “Persian Gulf” by Arab leaders during the summit; Larijani said he expected GCC to restructure itself and develop into Cooperation Council of the Persian Gulf and the Oman Sea to include Iran, Iraq and Yemen.
· A regional security conference focusing on Iran was held in Bahrain; Iran’s Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki refused to attend Bahrain conference; US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates attacked Iran’s foreign policy for its destabilizing effects in the region and called it a threat to the national interests of US; Qatar and some other Gulf countries protested US military threats against Iran.
· Iran and China signed a $2 billion contract to develop Yadavaran oil field in southwestern Iran; Iran’s Oil Minister Gholam Hossein Nozari said new contract indicates Washington's claims that international firms are not willing to invest in Iran are baseless .
· President Pervez Musharraf has said even if India does not agree to terms of Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) gas pipeline project, Pakistan will continue negotiations to import gas from Iran.

Leading Domestic Storylines

· Thousand of students at e University of Tehran today held demonstrations against Ahmadinejad government; the students chanted “Death or Liberty!” and “No to War; No to Fascism!”; the demonstrations were to mark the National Student Day (16 Azar); Ministry of Intelligence has arrested a number of “student agitators.”
· Foreign Ministry Spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini expressed regrets over the killing of French citizen Julien Van Waesberghe in Isfahan; Van Waesberghe, 24, was waiting for a bus to Yazd after visiting Isfahan; the foreign ministry spokesman said Isfahan Police has identified the killer and is vigorously trying to arrest him.

Postponing the Conflict

The new NIE is one of the biggest reversals in the history of US intelligence. Iran does not have a bomb and is not working on a bomb. The earliest date it can build a bomb is 2009, but that’s highly unlikely. It’s more likely to be in 2010-2015, if it ever decides to make it. Iran’s nuke program does not pose a clear and present danger. The NIE now provides a pretext for US government to de-escalate tension and avoid a military conflict with Iran.

Not so fast, the skeptics argue. The NIE indeed confirms the existence of a nuclear weapon program prior to 2003. Iranians decided to suspend their activities under the threat of US troops who had just invaded Iraq and toppled Saddam. International pressure kept them from reactivating the program. If Iran wants to produce a bomb, they can do so. The decision is theirs alone.

The wild card is Israel. Even if the chance of an Iranian bomb by 2009 is very low, that minimal chance is still a very serious matter for the Israelis. The IDF intelligence and the Mosad are surely examining their own data in light of the new NIE, but knowing the Israelis it is safe to assume that they would have more confidence in their own information and that they would try in the coming months to convince the Americans to reassess their sources and their findings.

The Newsweek is reporting that US intelligence officials deny categorically that their main source was former IRGC Brig. Gen. Ali Reza Asgari, but instead they relied heavily on an electronic intercept in which an Iranian scientist was overheard complaining earlier this year about how Iran's nuclear weapons program had been shut down in 2003. The CIA and the entire US intelligence community must have high confidence in their source to produce one of the biggest reversals in community’s key judgments.

Skepticism notwithstanding, in practical political terms the new NIE has postponed any military conflict with Iran, at lease for the Americans.

Tehran: All-Clear Signal, or Not?

The US intelligence community in an astonishing report reversed its previous findings and now believes that Iran halted its nuclear weapon program in fall 2003. President Ahmadinejad immediately declared a victory for Iran. Although the real effects of the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) are beginning to be felt, it is apparent that a mere three-page judgment statement on Iran’s nuclear capabilities has changed all political calculations about Iran and inside Iran.

The big question is whether the report is an all-clear signal for Tehran. The NIE does not give us any facts, only judgments. It tells us the 2005 report by the same agencies on the same subject contained wrong judgments.

We can not say which version is more accurate without knowing the facts. We only hope that the facts behind the new set of judgments were not limited to what is the talk on the street that the information on halting the work on the bomb was provided by IRGC Brig. Gen. Ali Reza Asgari who defected to the West earlier this year and is now considered to be a CIA asset.

We also hope that the facts were not solely based on some published reports about an intercepted phone conversation between an IRGC general and the political leadership in Tehran on the necessity to resume the atomic work. Both sets of information could be as wrong as those that the 2005 judgments were based on.

What we can say with certainty is that the report has changed all political calculations. No matter how credible are the new judgments, in practical term the US leverage on Iran’s nuclear program all but disappeared on Monday. No more WWIII either. But the report does not get Iran off the hook entirely.

The NIE states that Iran suspended its nuclear weapons program few months after Saddam was overthrown in Baghdad. Tehran must not be quite as immune to foreign pressure as it likes to portray itself! If the decision to halt the work on the bomb was based on a cold calculation on the part of the ayatollahs to keep away US troops from entering Iran during those victorious early days of Iraq war, a different set of calculations also based on cold realities on the ground can reverse their decision: US has its hands full in Iraq, as said many times by Ahmadinejad, so let’s make the bomb. Political decisions can by definition get reversed.

Tehran’s halt of atomic work after Saddam’s overthrow also shows that with the right amount of pressure, the international community can change Iran’s behavior; much less costly way of doing things than a WWIII.

This brings us to the timing of the report. The White House did not need to authorize the publication of the NIE. Could it be that those within the administration that always preferred the lets-change-Tehran’s-behavior solution now had the upper hand and by releasing the report checkmated the proponents of the military action against Iran? Whether or not they had anything to do with the decision to publish the NIE, they now have the upper hand. No military action can be conceivable after the report.

In Tehran, the NIE brought an unexpected victory for Ahmadinejad who was resisting pressures from the moderates and the reformists to revise the country’s nuclear policy. Only three months before the all-important parliamentary elections in Iran, Ahmadinejad gets a shot in the arm which may prove decisive in who would control the Majlis. Ahmadinejad must wonder how ironic can it get to receive such valuable help from the US intelligence community.

The Iranian opposition also is once again learning a time-honored fact: in the struggle against the government do not rely on foreign policy. A report published on the other side of the world can change all calculations. Stick with the basics. Democracy, human rights and the establishment of a progressive Iran.