Thursday, September 29, 2011

Rising Rate of “Suffering” in Iran – Gallop Poll

In a Gallup poll published today, the percentage of Iranians describing their personal economic situation as “suffering” has nearly doubled since 2008. Gallup said 26 percent of people in Iran are "suffering," up from 14 percent in 2008.

Gallup classifies respondents as “thriving,” “struggling” or “suffering” according to how they rate their current lives and expectations for five years from the present.

Of all the respondents, 20 percent said they were “thriving,” 54 percent said they were “struggling,” while 26 percent said they were “suffering” [UPI, 29 September].

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,003 adults in Iran March 26-30, and Gallup said it can say with 95 percent confidence the margin of error is 4 percentage points.


Anonymous said...

I almost guarantee the rate is higher in the US. In the US the real unemployment rate is about 25% and people are living paycheck to paycheck on $10/hour jobs.

Not saying things are better in Iran, but this 26% statistic doesn't really make Iran look bad.

Anonymous said...

That 26 percent suffering is to low I would say at least 46 percent and the remaining 54 percent are struggling that makes 100 percent of Iranians are sick and tired of the Theocracy run by the outsiders the thriving mullahs !

Nader Uskowi said...

Anon 3:45 PM,
It's not matter of a country looking bad or good, and this post is not about comparing Iran to other countries. The issue here is why the index jumped so high (from 14 to 26 percent) in such a short period (2008 to 2011)? What has happened or happening in the country that has caused such jump in suffering index. I am looking forward to see your analysis.

Anon 4:04 PM,
We cannot be selective with numbers. If you accept 26 percent of respondents feel they are suffering, then you should accept that 20 percent feel thriving. Please give us your analysis of why 20 percent should feel thriving.

Anonymous said...

You need someone to explain why people are experiencing more economic difficulty between 2008 and 2011? I'm not surprised.

Anonymous said...

in case of iran, we should try to make always bad news.
2 years ago was a pooling, today was again an American pooling.
nobody can really verify this kind of pooling.

between 2008 and 2011 was nothing worsed in irn, except the subside reform, which is/was is necessary.

Mohammad said...

I think that a combination of the recent global recession, the youth bulge (which, according to Djavad Salehi Esfahani, has recently reached its peak) which affects unemployment negatively and most importantly, the subsidy reform which has sent a shockwave through the Iranian economy, are to blame. Simply put, we're at a recession which can't cope with the rising number of people looking for jobs.

Unfortunately, the subsidy reform was necessary for its long-term effects. But it surely makes people suffer in the short run. Many businesses have gone or are going bankrupt because they're no longer viable with less-subsidized energy.

I predict that if a mass unrest doesn't take place in the meantime, the rate of suffering of Iranians will begin decreasing by 2013 or 2014, when the first positive results of the subsidy reform begin to be felt.

Nader Uskowi said...


Thanks for your thoughtful comments. I do agree that subsidy reforms were necessary for the Iranian economic development, a step that previous governments did not dare to take. But the government was not ready or expecting the rapidly rising prices. They kept saying publicly that because of the way they brought in the reform via shock therapy, the inflation rate were to be checked. Even IMF fell for this and declared that despite the subsidy removals, the inflation rate of 12 percent was the peak. The realities soon proved the government and the IMF wrong. Inflation is becoming a major issue and combined by rising unemployment has become the recipe for pessimism and the rising feeling of suffering picked up by Gallop. The government, however, should continue the subsidy reforms, and not lose its confidence and stop the reform implementation aggressively. Unfortunately, that’s what I believe is happening and the phase two of the reform program is nowhere near to start. If they abandon the next phases of the reforms, they get stuck with high inflation and no structural reform to correct the inflation in future. Difficult times for the country.

Anonymous said...

Mr Uskowi

Quite simple those 20 percent that feel they are thriving are the mullahs and IRGC and family with the bazaar class and corrupt officials with their hangers on.

What ever is left after that is taken by the little people which of course they should be extremely grateful towards that they were aloud to receive some crumbs from above.
But besides the point if you put the 26 and 54 percent together which makes 80 percent of the population struggling as well as suffering which means in my book these poor people are all suffering because with long term struggling there is always suffering.
This will eventually lead to an unprecedented uprising against an selfish and deceitful theocracy.

Anonymous said...

Even more sanctions, this hurts Iran even more.

September 28, 2011, 3:58 PM ET.US Threatens Sanctions On Chinese Banks Over Iran

A top U.S. Treasury official said Wednesday that Washington could impose sanctions on China’s biggest banks if they are caught doing business with an Iranian insurance company on the U.S. blacklist, AFP reported.

David Cohen, undersecretary of Treasury for terrorism and financial intelligence, is in China to discuss U.S. sanctions on Iran, and he met with representatives of Bank of China Ltd., China Construction Bank Corp., Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd. and the Agricultural Bank of China.

He told them, according to the AFP report, that they would be cut off from the U.S. financial system if they accepted payments from Moallem, an Iranian insurance firm, under a 2010 law that granted the Obama administration the power to hoist harsher sanctions on Tehran.

“Any foreign bank that receives payment from Moallem on behalf of a client, risks losing its ability to do business in the United States,” Cohen said, according to the AFP report.

Moallem insures the Iranian state shipping line, or IRISL. Both Moallem and IRISL, along with subsidiaries and its ships, have been designated as violators of anti-nuclear proliferation rules set by the U.S. and the European Union.

Cohen said, according to the AFP story, that many European countries no longer do business with IRISL and have closed their ports to its ships, but they still dock in Asia. To that end, the U.S. identified 24 Hong Kong-based shipping companies with links to IRISL.

Of those 24 entities, 20 were listed at two addresses, according to an AFP report from that time. Following the identification, Hong Kong passed a law that allowed it to freeze IRISL’s assets there.

Anonymous said...

Try telling the Islamist Troll that the Iranian people are suffering because he thinks everything is marvelous in Iran.
In a way you can't but feel sorry for the escaped Troll with nothing to do but watch Press TV in his cave all day.

Anonymous said...

The US will not be imposing sanctions against the large Chinese banks.

This isn't really threatening with sanctions. This is about threatening China with bad publicity.