American public opinion supports Iran nuclear deal by 2-1 margin

 

According to Reuters:

Americans back a newly brokered nuclear deal with Iran by a 2-to-1 margin and are very wary of the United States resorting to military action against Tehran even if the historic diplomatic effort falls through, a Reuters/Ipsos poll showed on Tuesday.

[...]

According to the Reuters/Ipsos survey, 44 percent of Americans support the interim deal reached between Iran and six world powers in Geneva last weekend, and 22 percent oppose it.

Good news for President Obama, and persons interested in peace.

The difficult part is coming: acceptance of uranium enrichment in Iran for purposes of fueling civil nuclear power plants.

Americans See Iran as Threat to US National Security

A new public opinion poll on Iran conducted by Quinnipiac University has found that the Americans see Iran as a threat to US national security.

• 88 percent of Americans say Iran is a threat to US national security.
• 60 percent say sanctions are not an effective tool for stopping Iran’s nuclear program.
• 55 percent oppose immediate military action against Iran, while 36 percent support it.
• 50 percent say the US should use force if sanctions fail, while 36 percent oppose a military strike.

“Americans are very concerned about the development of an Iranian nuclear program and don’t think the current policy of economic sanctions is effective,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “Voters are not yet to the point that they want the US military to stop it, but 50 per cent say that if the sanctions eventually prove to be ineffective, then they would support the use of force”

 [UPI, 26 November].

If Israel takes action against Iran, 46 per cent say the United States should support the move, 44 per cent favor neutrality and only six per cent say the US should oppose it.



The institute surveyed 2,552 registered voters between 14-20 November.

Source: UPI

Rising Rate of “Suffering” in Iran – Gallop Poll

In a Gallup poll published today, the percentage of Iranians describing their personal economic situation as “suffering” has nearly doubled since 2008. Gallup said 26 percent of people in Iran are "suffering," up from 14 percent in 2008.

Gallup classifies respondents as “thriving,” “struggling” or “suffering” according to how they rate their current lives and expectations for five years from the present.

Of all the respondents, 20 percent said they were “thriving,” 54 percent said they were “struggling,” while 26 percent said they were “suffering” [UPI, 29 September].

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,003 adults in Iran March 26-30, and Gallup said it can say with 95 percent confidence the margin of error is 4 percentage points.

Yet another poll mirrors official 2009 Iran presidential election results

A recent poll taken by the International Peace Institute with Charney Research shows results consistent with three previous polls by other organizations, mirroring closely the official results of Iran's 2009 presidential election. In addition, by a solid majority Iranians support Islamic Republic governance as well as support Iranian law enforcement efforts during the post-2009 election demonstrations. Iran's nuclear program also enjoys majority support, including an aversion to dealing aspects of it away. Link to the complete poll and methodology available here.


Iran Public Opinion 2010 -

Iran winning regional public opinion over nuclear issue

According to the Brookings Institution:

On Thursday, August 5, Shibley Telhami, Anwar Sadat Professor for Peace and Development at the University of Maryland and nonresident senior fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings, released the 2010 Arab Public Opinion Poll, which is produced each year in conjunction with Zogby International.

This year’s poll surveyed 3,976 people in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Jordan, Lebanon, and the United Arab Emirates, during the period of June 29–July 20, 2010.

Among the key poll findings are:

• A substantial change toward a negative assessment of President Obama, both as president of the United States and of Obama personally.

• A larger majority of the Arab public asserts Iran has a right to its nuclear program.

• A majority of the Arab public now see a potentially nuclear-armed Iran as being better for the Middle East.




A complete report on the poll findings is available here.

Pew Poll On War With Iran

Majorities in many Western and some Muslim countries are willing to consider military action against Iran to prevent the Islamic Republic from obtaining nuclear weapons, a poll conducted by Pew Research Center in 22 countries has revealed.

Americans are among the most supportive of a military option to deal with Iran with 66 per cent of those who oppose a nuclear-armed Iran saying they would consider the use of force. Nigerians are the most supportive, with 71 percent in favor of military action.

Among Europeans, the views are more mixed. In France, 59 percent said they would consider the use of military force, but a sizeable minority of 41percent rejected this option.

Support for the military option is softer in Germany (51pc), Spain (50pc) and Britain (48pc). Russians were divided on the use of force, with 32pc in each camp.

In the Muslim world, there is support for military action in Egypt (55pc), Jordan (53pc) and Lebanon (44pc). In Turkey, 37 percent said avoiding a military conflict should be the priority while 29 percent would consider the use of military force.

The poll surveyed 24,000 people in 22 countries between April 7 and May 8.

What Does the Iranian Public Really Think?

The New America Foundation/Iran Initiative hosted an event Wednesday to discuss what the Iranian public really thinks on key issues and the implications for US foreign policy. One of the speakers was Steven Kull, Director of WorldPublicOpinion.org.

Mr. Kull presented an analysis of multiple polls which consistently find little evidence to support the contention that the Iranian public sees its government as illegitimate. His report addressed the following:

Indications of fraud in the June 12 Iranian presidential election, together with large-scale street demonstrations, have led to claims that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad did not actually win the election, and that the majority of Iranians perceive their government as illegitimate and favor regime change. An analysis of multiple polls of the Iranian public from three different sources finds little evidence to support such conclusions.

The analysis conducted by the Program on International Policy Attitudes at the University of Maryland (PIPA), was based on:

• a series of 10 recently-released polls conducted by the University of Tehran; eight conducted in the month before the June 12 election and two conducted in the month after the election, based on telephone interviews conducted within Iran

• a poll by GlobeScan conducted shortly after the election, based on telephone interviews conducted within Iran

• a poll by WorldPublicOpinion.org (managed by PIPA) conducted August 27--September 10, based on telephone interviews made by calling into Iran

Links to the available data and analysis:

• Analysis of Multiple Polls

• Full Report

• Questionnaire with Findings, Methodology for All Three Surveys (PDF)

• WPO Dataset for Downlaod (SPSS Format)

• GlobeScan Dataset for Download (SPSS Format)

Video recorded of The New America Foundation/Iran Initiative event, including presentations by Steven Kull, Jon Cohen, Flynt Leverett, Hooman Majd and Barbara Slavin:


What Does the Iranian Public Really Think - Panel 1


What Does the Iranian Public Really Think - Panel 2

Iran Elections Poll

Iran's Press TV is reporting that according to a nationwide opinion poll, President Ahmadinejad is the leading candidate in the June 12 presidential elections. Ahmadinejad would have received 53.6% of the vote if the elections were held today, the poll indicates. Ahmadinejad needs a simple majority in the first round of the elections to win his second term.

Mir-Hossein Mousavi would finish second with 21.9%, with Ayatolah Karrubi trailing at 3.8% and Mohsen Rezaie at 1.7%. Press TV did not disclose the name of the polling agency.

On the expected turnout, an important factor in Iranian elections, the poll shows that 50.1% of Tehran’s residents and 57.2% of the population in other cities will go to polls.

A larg turnout, around 60%, generally favors reformist candidates and lower turnouts would help the principlist camp.

US Public Backs Immediate Talks with Iran

A new survey conducted by CNN and polling firm Opinion Research and released today found that 59% of Americans say Obama's administration should hold talks with top Iranian leaders in the next few weeks, even though by the same margin the Americans see the Islamic Republic as a long-term threat. 22% of Americans see the Islamic Republic as an immediate threat.

The Views of Iranians

In a poll conducted in June 2007, the Iranians were asked about their views on the economy, the nuclear program and their political system. An overwhelming majority regard the creation of new jobs as the top priority. A majority favors a nuclear Iran, but 80% of Iranians are ready to stop nuclear weapon programs if Iran gets international trade and investment necessary to create new jobs. Jobs are more important than the bomb.

An overwhelming majority of Iranians favor a republic where all the leaders are freely and directly elected by the people. They oppose the current political system and they oppose the return of monarchy to Iran.

The poll was conducted for Terror Free Tomorrow, by telephone from 5 June to 18 June, 2007, with 1,000 interviews proportionally distributed according to the population covering all 30 provinces of Iran (www.TerrorFreeTomorrow.org).

On Economy
75% of Iranians think the present economic situation is fair to poor. A minority of 25%, however, feels they are benefiting from the government policies and the economy is going in the right direction.

Do you think the economy in Iran today is going in the right direction?
No: 42%
Yes: 27%
Don't Know: 19%
Neither: 11%

In terms of your own personal economic situation, do you think your financial situation today is better, the same, or worse than it was when President Ahmadinejad took office?
The same: 44%
Worse: 31%
Better: 24%

Would you say President Aahmadinejad’s policies have or have not succeeded in reducing unemployment and inflation?
Have not: 52%
Have: 33%

Do you feel that President Ahmadinejad has kept his campaign promise to “put oil money on the table of the people themselves?”
No: 56%
Yes: 22%


On Nuclear Program
Two-thirds of Iranians strongly favor the development of peaceful nuclear technology. The public opinion is divided on developing nuclear weapons. A majority favors having the bomb and feels safer with the bomb. But 80% are ready to stop any nuclear weapon programs if in return Iran could get foreign trade and capital investment creating more jobs in the country. The Iranians are saying that jobs are more important than the bomb.

Do you favor or oppose the Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran developing nuclear energy?
Strongly favor: 78%
Somewhat favor: 14%
Oppose: 5%

Apart from nuclear energy, do you favor or oppose the Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran developing nuclear weapons?
Strongly oppose: 37%
Strongly favor: 33%
Somewhat favor: 19%
Somewhat oppose: 5%

If the Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran had nuclear weapons, do you think that the people of Iran would live in a safer or more dangerous world?
Safer: 52%
More dangerous: 31%

Would you support or oppose Iran receiving [international] assistance in return for Iran guaranteeing not to develop nuclear weapons?
Support: 80%
Oppose: 15%


On Politics:
The Iranians oppose the present political system where the Supreme Leader is not chosen by a direct vote of the people. They favor a republic where leaders are freely and directly elected.

Do you support or oppose a political system where the ‘Supreme Leader’ rules according to religious principles, and cannot be chosen or replaced by a direct vote of the people?
Strongly oppose: 53%
Strongly favor: 17%
Somewhat favor: 10%
Somewhat oppose: 8%

Do you support or oppose a political system where the ‘Supreme Leader’, along with all other leaders, can be chosen and replaced by a free and direct vote of the people?
Strongly support: 72%
Strongly oppose: 11%
Somewhat support: 7%
Somewhat oppose: 3%

Do you support or oppose a political system where there is a monarch who is not elected by the people, rules for life, and his family inherits the right to rule?
Strongly oppose: 75%
Strongly support: 6%
Somewhat oppose: 6%
Somewhat support: 4%