Saturday, December 26, 2009

Is Iran on the verge of a popular explosion?

Iranians follow a truck transporting the coffin of dissident cleric
Grand Ayatollah Ali Montazeri. Qum. 21 December 2009
Global Post. Reuters Photo

GlobalPost carries a dispatch by Iason Athanasiadis on widening of the scope of protests across Iran in recent days. Athanasiadis examines the importance of the spread of the movement to smaller cities and quotes this blogger on government’s failure to contain the Greens.

“The government chose to wage a campaign of attrition as opposed to an all-out attack on the Greens,” said Uskowi. “It hoped the youths would lose their focus but in reality it was the government forces that lost their vigor."


Anonymous said...

the respond is not in any way to lose the control of country to be unstable ///people will know those few thousant lotter come from whom sponcer them and why? secondly the changing more deeper freedom in iran from one step to others to see in the level of islamic republic that no muslim country ever reach that before the step has begone few month ago but those sponsore was west they will changes by them way of benefet to feel more freedom and justice in most area by government and legestlation mp would be provided in 2010 in certain area inside university and some area of park to maintain for opposition not to disture poblic others will be first the opening of people mind not to judge quickly analyzed the right and wrong it will be shortly announce by government in commeng month to find more freedome of speach and active in level of is important for government to grow in healthy way.

Mark Pyruz said...

Nader, I would urge caution in drawing any conclusions from what is being reported from Iran, particularly from so-called reform or opposition news web sites. Just two examples (among many): two weeks ago Gooya published a fake statement allegedly by the Artesh warning the IRGC, and Rah-e-Sabz published a report stating that in Tehran today the IRGC was engaged in crowd dispersal ops when such activities are obviously the responsibility of the IRIPF (NAJA).

The mistake of identifying the IRIPF as IRGC is widespread. If and when the IRGC is fully activated in a street policing role (such as the elite Seyed-ol-Shohada Corps deploying into Tehran), that will mark a significant new phase in the situation. Until then, the security condition for Tehran (and the country) remains at its current managed level.

From the reports being generated for today (Saturday), the IRIPF appears to be maintaining the initiative, and the protest strength in Tehran is minimal. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

If there's enough photo/video evidence available with which to analyze IRI security for Ashura, I'll provide posting on it.

Anonymous said...

Mark pyruz,
I second what you said!

Anonymous said...

the Western Media hypes it up for obvious reasons. The Rahe-sabz and roozonline websites also do the same. We live in a world of massive deception from all sides!

Anonymous said...

Absolutley and 100% ..NO,

the reports are edited and magnified,and Iran has been immunized against such manipulations.

Nader Uskowi said...


That's precisely why we did not publish Gooya's reference on Artesh and Rah-e Sabz on IRGC. Your caution is well taken.

The jest of the article had to do with a) recent unrest in cities like Najafabad and Sirjan (each for different reasons) and b) the strategy chosen by the government in confronting the Green movement.

On the first point, I do believe any spread of demonstrations/unrest, under whatever guise, is very significant development. people in smaller town know each other well, limiting the government's tactics.

On the strategy, i do believe the government has so far chosen the attrition route, hoping for the movement to loose focus, after all this is a youths movement and such thinking was not at the time all that off. The reality is the strategy has not worked, and the attrition approach has actually helped the movement (feeling they can survive and grow) and has hurt the law enforcement, taking vigor out of their drive.

To those anonymous friends who have nothing to offer in way of analysis and limit their comments to slogans, thinking all reports and analyses on the movement is just a Western media hype, and there is no reason to follow and report these development, I must say they are setting themselves up for a big surprise. This is a serious movement. Doesn't mean it will succeed, but this would not lessen its importance.

Having said all that, I like to reiterate Mark's cautionary note. We (myself included) to not approach the facts with our pre-concieved notions: that either there could not possibly exist a successful movement against the current rulers of the country, or this movement as is will topple them. We need to be vary careful examining the events.

Mark, for Ashura, we do need an analysis like the one you offered on 16 Azar. If there would be large demonstrations, how the IRGC and NAJA would approach them. Looking forward to your take.

Anonymous said...

i think u r hyping it uptoo much as well.the reason that it will not succeed is that for the very reason that the movement is based on stubborn slogans and the people in this movement dont know what they want and they do not have a leader to help them. All I see is acts of stubbornness on behalf of the protesters. If one side was saying death to israel for 30 years now these guys are saying death the palestine and lebenon and russia. This means that they are totally lost. May God help them

Anonymous said...

the old persian expresion: the cat can not get the meat is telling her to jump.

Paul said...

I am sure there are those within the Iranian establishment who are pushing for a hard crackdown, and pointing out similarities with China, especially after Ayatollah Montazeri's death (Tiananmen Square protests were sparked by the death of Hu Yaobang who was a pro-democracy and anti-corruption official, and whom protesters wanted to mourn).

Of course Tiananmen lasted seven weeks from start to finish; in Iran we are now approaching seven months after a stolen election. Also there is an uneasy and tense pseudo-equilibrium between the two sides in Iran, with neither side being able to decisively gain the upper hand (yet).

Nonetheless the possibility of a harsh crackdown is very much there. The IRGC will definitely get involved at that point, and it will fracture badly. Of course, after that I would say the regime is finished. But when? Nobody knows.

Forecast: look for increasingly harsher police and security force responses in the short term. In the long term, look for Mr. Ahmadinejad exiting the scene. He will not finish his 4-year term.

Anonymous said...

this will continue to go on until war breaks between Iran and the oppressor powers, then all this stuff will be at the end of the que of importance and the main focus will be on war. good luck Iran

Naj said...

Mark, any news on khamenei being taken to a safe military base?

I wish it is just media hype; but since an hour ago my phone connection to Tehran is cut; and the IRNA and FARCEnews reports show that the regime is admitting to the "revolution" ... aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa