Uskowi on Iran, signing off

It is with heavy hearts that Nader Uskowi and I, Mark Pyruz, announce we are signing off at Uskowi on Iran. This is the last post.

Mr. Uskowi’s professional commitments no longer afford the time required to put into this publishing effort. I, in turn, have decided to focus on personal health issues.

Looking back, this publishing effort was initiated by Mr. Uskowi on 3 March 2007. I, Mark Pyruz, was recruited in April 2008. Subsequently, writers added to this effort included Paul Iddon, Amir Taheri and Dr. Jabbar Fazeli. We sincerely thank these three writers for their contributions.

During this nearly nine-year run, the total number of posts reached 6,663.

The total number of page views exceeded 8 million, for which we express our deepest appreciation to you, the readership.

Speaking for myself, I am eternally grateful to Nader Uskowi for including me in this effort. I learned a great deal in the process. In retrospect I realize I've been bestowed the opportunity to honor my paternal Iranian ancestral heritage. I know that in all of Mr. Uskowi’s many important endeavors, he is likewise motivated.

This site will remain up for a period of time primarily as a resource for Iran military-related studies.

Farewell from Nader Uskowi and Mark Pyruz.

Center: Nader Uskowi's father, Nasser Oskoui, a full Colonel in the IIA, later rising to the rank of Major General. In civilian suits: three uncles. Center right: Lt. Colonel and brother-in-law to the Uskowis. Circa 1960.

Mark Pyruz's paternal Iranian heritage: 

Freydoun Merat, father, 1973

Ismail Merat, grandfather, Minister of Education and Health/Welfare, University of Tehran chancellor University of Tehran, 1936

Ismail Mumtaz, great-grandfather, writer of 1906 Constitution, Speaker of Parliament, circa 1902

The Hormuz Debacle

By Paul Iddon

The historical implications of Tehran's threat to blockade the Strait of Hormuz.

Satellite image of the Strait.

The gunboat diplomacy between the United States and Iran has had some troubling developments over the past few days. In a response to the possibility of more sanctions on Iran over its nuclear activities threats have been made by the regime to close the Strait of Hormuz, equating it to being easier than “drinking a glass of water.” Vice-President Rahimi has also spoken some tough rhetoric stating that those imposing sanctions “will only drop their plots when we put them back in their place.”

The US Navy has in turn stated that it is “ready to counter malevolent actions to ensure freedom of navigation.” Certainly not an unprecedented nor over zealous statement when one considers that shortly after its inception the United States Navy undertook a military operation against the Barbary states of North Africa in order to curtail the pirating and harassment of international merchant shipping.

One however doesn't need to go back to the 19th century to draw a useful historical analogy of which one could learn about the present situation. Two instances from the late 20th century immediately spring to mind, those being the 1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis and the Tanker War period of the Iran Iraq War. In both cases the United States directly intervened with its naval forces under the pretext of safeguarding international shipping lanes. Whilst the 1996 instance in the Taiwan Strait saw a rather tense stand off it did not escalate into a shooting war between the United States and the Peoples Republic of China. When Iran begun mining the Persian Gulf in the latter years of the Iran Iraq War the US Navy conducted several military engagements against Iranian forces. Under the auspices of the Earnest Will deployment which was launched to effectively deploy warships to steam through any blockade zone that would hinder transit of the waterway the US Navy engaged Iranian warships and in the case of the Sahand destroyed them.

Talk of closing off the Strait has been prominent since the speedboat incident in January 2008 which saw erratic manoeuvres by small fast moving Revolutionary Guard surface vessels near US warships in international waters. This one tense incident saw oil prices rise to a then record high of $100 per barrel. Since then, talk of the possibility and likely consequences of an attack on Iran have seldom excluded the repercussions such an attack would have on the world price of oil if the Iranians were to go through with their threat of closing the Strait. Overlooked by many who focus on the damaging effects such action will have on the western economies is the fact that 50% of China's oil passes through this narrow 34 mile waterway.

The Persian Gulf is certainly a rough neighbourhood these days, where national pride on both sides of its shore is frequently challenged. Iran for instance has felt marginalized in what it considers to be effectively its own backyard, and is aghast and disgusted with its neighbours challenging the historically significant name of the gulf.

My colleague Nader Uskowi recently pointed out there is a strong possibility that if these gulf states feel threatened, now at a time when discontent is at a high among their respective populaces towards their respective governments then there is a plausible possibility and scenario that under the auspices of the GCC - and backed heavily by Saudi Arabia - the UAE may attempt to seize the disputed islands of Abu Musa and and the Greater and the Lesser Tunbs in the Persian Gulf. While such a costly and dangerous endeavor sounds somewhat far fetched (which it would be) I would wager it isn't in the least bit implausible. The Argentine junta for example in 1982 seized the Falkland Islands in a bid to a reassert national pride in a midst of a crippling economic depression and widespread public discontent. Their subsequent defeat at the hands of a large British Task Force led on to the juntas rapid decline, deterioration and dissolution.

Similarly, the Iranian regimes tough rhetoric with regards to the Hormuz issue may simply be a public affairs stunt, an attempt to curb the discontentment that comes with crippling sanctions and the accompanying economic hardship. The aim of such a stunt would be to give the regime the aura of being the authentic 'face' of an Iran struggling to reassert national pride. The very pride they have consistently trampled upon, the pride of a nation they have made a pariah through their policies, and the pride of a nation they are willing to sacrifice over their shady nuclear programme which has seen them engage themselves in an obsessive overproduction of enriched uranium, an obsessive compulsion of which they are seemingly going to risk a war in which to fight for, in the Iranian peoples name, at their risk and costly expense.

Old Times

Students of Aryamehr University, now Sharif, watching soccer game, circa 1968. Among them are some of this blogger’s (Nader Uskowi) old friends and Alborz classmates. Photo: old-pic.blogspot.com

UOI at 3

By Nader Uskowi

Uskowi on Iran’s first post appeared on 3 March 2007. Three years and hundreds of thousands of visitors later, we love to stay around three more years and beyond!

On 19 April 2008, Mark Pyruz began posting on UOI and immediately lifted the blog’s quality and readership. Today, Mark’s posts and photo and video galleries on Iran’s military and security forces have become an authoritative source for the students of Iranian armed forces and visited by hundreds of people each day. Paul Iddon began his posts on UOI on 31 July 2009 alongside running his busy blog, pauliddon.net. Paul as a student of history has enriched this blog with his historical perspectives on many current issues in Iran.

We all have our day jobs and post during our spare time, not an easy task. Mark, Paul and I could not have continued our work at UOI without the encouragement and support of our readers throughout these years. To our readers: Thank you. We are looking forward to your active engagement, comments and criticism to make this blog more useful. And big thanks to all our fellow bloggers who have shown their support by providing links to our blog. Cheers to all!

Iran’s New ICBM Surprises Experts- DefenseNews

In a feature article in this week’s DefenseNews, Barbara Opall-Rome, Israel Bureau Chief at the leading defense news weekly, discusses Iran’s Feb. 3 unveiling of Simorgh. She writes that US and Israeli experts expected improvements to existing boosters rather than a super-sized design that might evolve into an ICBM.

The following are excerpts from the article, including references to this blogger’s assessment of Simorgh’s capabilities and its launch.

Simorgh’s total thrust of 143 tons comes from the four 32-ton thrust engines that make up the first stage and a 15-ton thrust control engine as a second stage. Although Iran has acknowledged a lift capacity of just 100 kilograms, Nader Uskowi, a Washington-based consultant and blogger on Iran, said optimization of its current design should allow Iran to put a 700-kilogram payroll into low Earth orbit.

Simorgh came as a surprise to Israeli and U.S. experts.

“Most analysts expected development of a three-stage Ashura as the next logical step in Iran’s missile development program,” Uskowi said.

Initial Israeli assessments have identified four separate Shehab 3B rocket motors as the Simorgh’s clustered first stage motor. The four verniers used for steering could have come from Russian BM25.

The article appeared on February 15, 2010 edition of DefenseNews.

CSM: After Sunday clashes in Iran, 'Green Movement' supporters take stock

The Christian Science Monitor today carries a dispatch by its correspondent Isaon Athanansiadis on the road ahead for supporters of the Green movement after Ashura. Athanansiadis quotes this blogger on the organization and the participants of the recent demonstrations in the country.

“The student organizations at major universities are still the most organised fora, but the youths have found other organizations that appear to be non-political, such as associations of painters and calligraphers, where the news of planned actions and slogans are passed along,” said Nader Uskowi, a Washington-based Iran analyst who works for the US government among other clients. “The students and the youths are still the engine of the movement but it is rapidly spreading to other segments including parents who are actively supporting their children."

Is Iran on the verge of a popular explosion?

Iranians follow a truck transporting the coffin of dissident cleric

Grand Ayatollah Ali Montazeri. Qum. 21 December 2009

Global Post. Reuters Photo

GlobalPost carries a dispatch by Iason Athanasiadis on widening of the scope of protests across Iran in recent days. Athanasiadis examines the importance of the spread of the movement to smaller cities and quotes this blogger on government’s failure to contain the Greens.

“The government chose to wage a campaign of attrition as opposed to an all-out attack on the Greens,” said Uskowi. “It hoped the youths would lose their focus but in reality it was the government forces that lost their vigor."

In Memory of Ayatollah Montazeri

By Nader Uskowi

I was travelling and unable to post on the blog. Hence this belated tribute in memory of the late Ayatollah Montazeri, who died in Qum on Sunday.

I first met the Ayatollah in 1978 in Tehran. He had been freed from SAVAK’s prison earlier that year. I was introduced to Montazeri by Ayatollah Shahroudi, who was my cellmate at the notorious Komiteh prison. It was few days before the shah would leave Iran. Sharoudi and I were among the very last SAVAK prisoners at Komiteh. Although there was an air of excitement in the city, but Montazaeri, nor Shahroudi, expected that the religious hierarchy would soon take over the government. (Shahroudi was later assassinated along with 71 other high-ranking officials of a young revolutionary government in a powerful bomb explosion at the headquarters of the Islamic Republic Party in Tehran).

The next time I met Montazeri, he was a powerful leader of the Islamic Republic and I was a young journalist covering the constitutional assembly that was drafting the country’s new constitution. The first draft was written by Habbibi and other close confidants of Ayatollah Khomeini from his Neauphle-le-Chateau days and it did resemble the Belgian constitution, with no mention of Velayat-e Faghih, the ultimate authority given to a cleric to rule over the country. Montazeri was pushing for it hard and I was there (at the old Senate building) to interview him, actually more to sit down and discuss the subject with him. He gladly agreed to give me the interview.

This was not the few days prior to shah’s departure; we were on the opposite of political spectrum now. But he was as friendly and warm as ever. He obviously could not satisfy me why the draft constitution should be so radically changed. In his later years he came to regret the way his reading of Velayat-e Faghih had been altered to justify the creation of an autocracy in the country. On that day, however, he was a strong defender.

Notwithstanding my questions and the intense discussion that pursued on that hot summer day, I left the room thinking that the man had a good heart and was as a gentleman and a scholar. This in spite of his reputation those days as a lightweight, the subject of many popular jokes thrown at him for his simple rural manners. There were probably this rural upbringing and his simplicity that endeared him to me on that day despite our deep differences. He would remain a simple man until his last day during a period that other ayatollahs lived princely lives.

Our third meeting was when the prosecutor under the authority given to him by that same constitution closed our paper, Neda-ye Azadi (“Voice of Freedom”) which by then had become arguably the most popular daily in Tehran, mainly because the government had closed down Ayandegan and other popular press. I was the editor-in-chief and the prosecutor had also signed my arrest warrant. I was there to see Montazeri to get his help. As powerful as he was then, it was clear that the closure of Neda was part of a larger push to silence the opposition papers and Montazeri could not do anything about it, even if he wanted to. One of the first real signs of how politically fragmented a government the Islamic Republic would become. I had to go into hiding. A few days later the Students of Imam’s Line occupied the US Embassy, took Americans hostage, and overthrew the centrist government of Mehdi Bazargan, an old friend of Montazeri.

The ayatollah later broke from the establishment on matters of principle, including his opposition to the mass killing of nearly 4,000 political prisoners during the last months of Khomeini, to whom Montazeri was the heir apparent at the time. He paid dearly for his courageous stand, was stripped of his powers and later was put under house arrest. He left the world not a broken man, however. But a powerful symbol of opposition to dictatorship. We will all miss him. He was a gentleman and a scholar. May his memory stay alive forever!

To Our Readers

I am on an extended work-related tour, unfortunately unable to post on the blog. These are important days in the country and I wish I could have been as active.

I am so happy that Paul Iddon could take some time off his busy schedule to post on the blog.

See you all soon.
Nader

Nader Uskowi - Interviews with Future TV

Nader Uskowi. Future TV. 31 July 2009

For our Arabic-speaking readers, following are the tapes of Nader Uskowi's recent interview with Beirut’s Future TV on the recent developments in Iran. The actual interview starts on tape 1 at approximately 7:00 minute mark, continuing into the second part.

Interview on 9 July 2009 on Iran nuclear program:

Iran’s hardliners face off over cabinet – The Christian Science Monitor

Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (r.) and Esfandiar Mashaie
Tehran. 22 July 2009. Photo by Reuters’ Yalda Moaiery.

Printed on 26 July 2009 edition of CSM

In a column on Sunday 26 July 2009 edition of The Christian Science Monitor, Iason Athanasiadis examines the growing tensions among Iran’s hardliners. President Ahmadinejad fired his intelligence minister on Sunday after being forced to take back the nomination of Eskandar Mashaie, a close advisor, as his first VP. Athanasiadis also quotes this blogger on the balance of fear between the government and the opposition.

"A delicate and prolonged period of balance of fear has started between the government and the opposition," says Nader Uskowi, a Washington-based Iran analyst and president of Uskowi Associates. "After enduring a month of relentless attack by government forces, the opposition reaffirmed its strength, but the government will hang onto power with support from the armed forces and a segment of the more traditional and rural population" [CSM, 26 July].

Don’t Write Off Reformists – Iason Athanasiadis on Rafsanjani’s Sermon

Iason Athanasiadis, the internationally renowned journalist recently released from Tehran’s Evin prison, writes on Rafsanjani’s main message of the sermon delivered at Friday’s Prayer: Don’t write off reformists.

“Intermittent clashes between police and protesters persisted in Tehran tonight after an emotional Friday sermon by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's most powerful political opponent, Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, that has prolonged Iran's political crisis,” writes Athanasiadis in today’s edition of Christian Science Monitor [CSM, 18 July].

Iason Athanasiadis quotes this blogger on the emerging balance of power between the opposition and the government.

"The opposition reaffirmed its strength after enduring a month of relentless attack by government forces, but the government will hang on to power with support from the armed forces and a segment of the more traditional and rural population," writes Nader Uskowi, a Washington-based Iran analyst and president of Uskowi Associates in an e-mail. "Ahmadinejad in his second term will pretend to be the president of all Iranians, and the opposition will assert that they are the future of the country. The future of Iran hangs in the balance."

Nader Uskowi in Ayandehnegar

Nader Uskowi’s article on Khatemi’s decision to withdraw from presidential race is published in Ayandehnegar:

خاتمی: میر حسین یا من
http://www.ayandeh.com/page1.php?news_id=5183

http://www.ayandeh.com/