Wednesday, October 21, 2009

Iran Agrees to Nuclear Deal

Iranian representative to the talks in Vienna today signed off on a draft agreement with major powers on its nuclear program. Iran would ship most of its current stockpile of low-grade uranium to Russia and France for conversion into a higher grade product for use in its research reactor. The move strips Tehran of most of the material it would need if it was to make a nuclear weapon. US and Russia also guarantee sales of enriched uranium to Iran for its nuclear power plants. The draft agreement is to be ratified by the nations’ capital by Friday.

The agreement represents a major victory for Obama administration’s Iran policy. The credible threat of crippling economic sanctions against Iran, including an embargo on the sale of gasoline to the country, combined with direct talks with the Iranian government on improving bilateral relations and the resumption of diplomatic ties, indeed pursued Tehran to sign an agreement that many would have thought impossible.


Mark Pyruz said...

It will be interesting to see how this plays out in Tehran. Personally, I hope they accept the deal.

I disagree with you, Nader. I don't think the threat of further sanctions played into this. Recall that it was Iran's initiative that put forward the issue of MEU acquisition. And if it were not for Iran's successful LEU technology, it is doubtful Iran's' request would have been permitted. So this actually represents a minor success for the Iranian nuclear program. What's more, the deal implicitly accepts Iran's current enrichment activities. This time around, there were no public declarations by the West at Geneva or Vienna for Iran to cease nuclear enrichment, which is a turnaround from previous discussions. And keep in mind, Iran possesses the potential capability of replenishing its LEU stock in a matter of months.

If anything, this potential deal represents a setback to American and Israeli hawks that were seeking so-called crippling sanctions on Iran, such as a gasoline embargo, not so much for their direct effects, but rather as a deliberate means of provoking war against the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Nader Uskowi said...

Obama’s policies indeed ran counter to the hawks’ who wanted to attack Iran militarily. Mark, I agree with you, the acceptance of the deal is a very positive move for Iran. In politics, every now and then, you can have a win-win solution. It was a major victory for Obama’s policy, but indeed Iran will also benefit immensely from the deal. Not only will the country get the enriched uranium it requires to run its power plants and the research reactor, but a new period for Iranian diplomacy will begin. Iran’s relations with the West and the neighboring countries could improve immensely and the government can focus on pressing issues at hand. This is a very good day for all involved. This is an outcome a lot of us had been hoping for.

Anonymous said...

The deal is one issue, but I doubt the French will honor it.

I live in Europe and the French are famous for not honoring their promises and deals. They always change the rules in the middle of the game and create a climate of necessity for changing the rules.
Sarkozy is known to be a "Punk" in liberal newspapers in Europe and ever since he came to power, the French reputation is worse and more labile.

Here, when we do buisiness with French companies, we insist on advance payments or vice versa, payment upon delivery. NO Credit or signitures count with the French

They are sinply French and thats how they function.

papa said...

A very wise political move by the masters of chess politics Iran. Now the Goldstone report will be sent to the Hague as the USA and Israel have no nonsence about nuclear issues. The emperor is now fully naked! Well done Iran and Ahmedijahd the leader.

Unknown said...

@papa you are absolutely right a master stroke by Iran. However Israel is trying to find some way to scuttle the Iran deal and proceed with the war. Israel is cornered here. For that matter so is the United States. When this Iran deal goes through on Friday, the primary excuse for war with Iran evaporates.

Where does that leave Israel and the United States?

Israel now faces war crimes charges at the Hague. Yes, the United States will veto the Goldstone Report in the Security Council, but the ringer in the deal is that the General assembly, under Resolution 377, can bypass the Security Council and send the Goldstone Report to the Hague and the United States and Israel cannot stop it. Earlier this year, the General Assembly voted through a resolution requesting Israel to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and submit to the exact same IAEA inspections that Iran (and every other NNPT signatory) submits to. Israel refused. The fact that Israel and the United States were not able to deflect this Resolution tell us that the General Assembly has lost all patience with Israel. The credibility of the UN as a world governing body is on the line. The probability that the General Assembly will bypass the Security Council is therefore very high. A war with Iran would have distracted the media from Israel's war crimes charges. That seems not likely to happen now.