G20 Summit

G20 Summit got underway today in Antalya, Turkey. The summit agenda normally includes current global economic and trade issues, but in the aftermath of terrorist attacks in Paris, the attention today centers on terrorism.

Top photo: G20 leaders pose for family photo; Antalya, 15 November 2015 (Twitter/@G20Turkey2015)
Bottom photo: President Obama and Turkish President Erdogan before their bilateral meeting

Photo above: Obama and Putin hold a meeting on the sidelines of G20 Summit (RT)

Khamenei Approves JCPOA

Cautions against Sanctions; Attacks Obama for Regime Change Policy

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei today gave his final approval to the JCPOA, the nuclear deal with world powers. In a letter to President Rouhani, announcing his approval of JCPOA, Khamenei cautioned against the “ambiguities and structural frailties” of the agreement that “can bring huge damages” to Iran. He also harshly attacks President Obama for “lies” about not being after regime change in Tehran and the U.S. behavior at nuclear negotiations for advancing “hostile policies” against the Islamic Republic. (@khamenei_ir/Twitter, 21 October)

In the letter, Khamenei demands that President Obama and the EU issue written orders for complete removal of all sanctions against Iran. He adds that “throughout the 8-year term of JCPOA, imposition of any sanctions at any level and under any pretext (including repetitive and fabricated excuses like terrorism and human rights) from any of the negotiating countries, will be considered as the violation of JCPOA, Iranian government is obliged to take necessary measures and cease implementation of the JCPOA.” 

The latter could be problematic for the implementation of the agreement, as the JCPOA does not deal with issues of human rights and terrorism in Iran. It specifically lifts only the nuclear-related sanctions imposed by the UN, the U.S. and EU against the country. In facts signatories like the U.S. maintain non-nuclear sanctions that predate the ones imposed against the Iranian nuclear program.

Khamenei reiterates that the reconfiguration of Arak (IR-40) heavy water reactor and shipping out the country’s current stockpile of higher-enriched uranium could only begin after the IAEA certifies that the Iranian nuclear program never had any possible military dimensions (PMD). IAEA is to file its final report on PMD on 15 December. Based on the agreement, if IAEA does not clear Iran on PMD issue, the JCPOA could not be implemented anyway.

In his letter, Khamenei harshly attacked the United States and President Obama. He said Obama’s claims in his two letters to him that he was not after regime change in Iran “proved as a lie.” Khamenei did not explain what actions Obama has taken that could be seen as attempts to overthrow the Islamic Republic. He also attacked the U.S. behavior during the nuclear negotiations that led to JCPOA, saying “U.S. deceptive involvement in nuclear talks has been intended to advance their hostile policies towards Iran.” He did not explain what those hostile policies were and why did he approve an agreement that had hostilities toward Iran at its root.

U.S. Willing to Work with Russia and Iran to Resolve Syrian Conflict - Obama

UN General Assembly opened today with a focus on the Syrian conflict. President Obama said the U.S. is willing to work with any nation – including Russia and Iran, to resolve the conflict in Syria. Obama added that the pre-war scenario in which Assad remains in power could not be part of the solution, emphasizing that we should not support “tyrants like Bashar al-Assad, who drops barrel bombs on innocent children, because the alternative is surely worse.” But Obama used the language of a compromise in describing leadership change in Syrian as a “managed transition” away from Assad.

“The United States is prepared to work with any nation, including Russia and Iran, to resolve the conflict. But we must recognize that there cannot be, after so much bloodshed, so much carnage, a return to pre-war status quo,” Obama told heads of states and governments and other officials present at the UNGA.

“Yes, realism dictates that compromise will be required to end the fighting and ultimately stamp out ISIL. But realism also requires a managed transition away from Assad and to a new leader, and an inclusive government that recognizes there must be an end to this chaos so that the Syrian people can begin to rebuild,” Obama said.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, who spoke at UNGA shortly after Obama, said no one but Assad and his armed forces are truly fighting the Islamic State. He did not elaborate on the assertion, especially given the fact that Assad and his military have rarely engaged against ISIL and instead have on opposition forces and other anti-regime groups.

Putin shared his concern that fighters recruited by ISIL, presumably Chechens and other Russians, may one day return home to Russia. Putin said, “We cannot allow these criminals who tasted blood to return home.” Putin called for a grand coalition of nations to fight ISIL.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, who spoke after Obama and Putin, did not mention Assad by name. But he also called for a global coalition against terrorists, and proposed a “biding international document” against terrorism.

Rouhani’s remarks on the problems plaguing the region focused instead against the United States and its support for an “inhumane” Israel, saying current conflicts in the region are ultimately the product of American policy.

“If we did not have the U.S. military intervention in Afghanistan and Iraq… today the terrorists would not have an excuse or justification for their crimes,” Rouhani said.

It’s worthy to note that the Islamic Republic actively supported the U.S. military intervention in Afghanistan after 9/11. It was not clear if Rouhani’s reference now to that war is a change in the official Iranian position.

Photo credit: Presidents Obama and Putin at the UN luncheon after their speeches to the General Assebly; Monday 28 September 2015 (Twitter)

Khamenei: ‘If any war happens…’

On Sunday, the official Twitter account of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei uploaded a video with his voiceover entitled, “If any wars happens…” (@khamenei_ir)

“This gentleman (President Obama) has said he can destroy Iranian military,” Khamanei is heard as saying. “But should any war break out, one who will emerge humiliated out of it, will be invading and criminal America.” (Twitter/@khamanei_ir, 13 September)

Video credit: @khamanei_ir/YouTube)

Obama Gains 41 Senate Votes to Uphold Iran Deal

President Obama gains 41 U.S. Senate votes to block any congressional disapproval bill and uphold the Iran nuclear accord.

Saudi King Salman and President Obama Meet at the White House

Saudi Arabia’s King Salman met with President Obama at the White House on Friday. The monarch on a visit to Washington said his country was willing to collaborate with the United States to ensure stability in the region. King Salman characterized his visit as symbolic of the deep ties between the allies.

President Obama said he and King Salman shared common goals of countering Iran’s destabilizing activities in the region and resolving the crisis in Yemen. Obama added he shared the king’s desire for an inclusive government in Yemen that can relieve that impoverished country’s human crisis. Their talks also addressed the Iran nuclear agreement.

Meanwhile, Secretary of State John Kerry said the United States was working with its Arab allies on a ballistic missile defense system, special operations training and large-scale military exercises. Kerry met King Salman ahead of his meeting with President Obama.

Photo credit: Saudi King Salman and President Obama at the Oval Office; Washington, 4 September 2015 (Al Arabiya)

Saudi King Salman in Washington

Saudi King Salman arrived in Washington tonight for a visit with President Obama. The king arrived at Joint Base Andrews in a Maryland suburb of Washington. Wall Street Journal reporter Carole Lee snapped a photo of his epic entourage. (USA Today, 3 September)

On Friday at the White House, King Salman and President Obama will discuss Iran nuclear deal and regional conflicts.

Photo credit: The car fleet for King Salman and his entourage at Joint Base Andrews; 3 September 2015 (Twitter/@carolelee)

Obama says Iran advised Ansarullah against launching armed campaign in 2014

Saudi (RSLFAF) AH-64 Apache attack helicopter reported 05AUG15 to be shot down by Yemeni SAM in the district of Harad, in the western Yemeni province of Hajjah.

According to Huffington Post, dated 06AUG15:

Iran tried to hold back Shia rebels who were intent on taking the Yemeni capital of Sanaa at the height of the uprising in 2014, President Barack Obama told a group of reporters Wednesday afternoon.

The Houthi rebels, however, ignored the advice and marched on, precipitating a much wider war in Yemen.

Obama's observation confirms an earlier Huffington Post report that, contrary to widespread assumptions in the United States, Iran was not the driving force of the crisis in Yemen.

The president relayed the anecdote as an example of how Iran is calculating, rational and opportunistic in its interventions, rather than being wildly driven by the passions of its ideology, at a briefing with reporters to discuss the nuclear deal between Iran and six world powers.

“When the Houthis started moving, that wasn’t on orders from Soleimani, that wasn’t on an order from the IRGC,” he said, referring to Qasim Soleimani, the head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.”That was an expression of the traditional Houthi antagonism towards Sanaa, and some of the machinations of the former president, [Ali Abdullah] Saleh, who was making common cause out of expediency with the Houthis.”

"We watched as this proceeded. There were moments where Iran was actually urging potential restraint,” he said. ”Now, once the Houthis march in and there’s no there there” -- in other words, the government completely collapsed and Houthis expecting resistance found none at all -- “

Commentary: Iranian intelligence likely assessed risks inherent with Ansarullah launching armed campaign in 2014. What's more, with the subsequent Feb. 2015 pullout of Western embassy personnel in Sanaa providing indication of impending Saudi-led air offensive, their warnings appeared vindicated.

Also related to Yemen from Huffington Post is this 05AUG15 interview of ex-President Ali Abdullah Saleh, click HERE. [h/t Tom Cooper] Excerpts:

Q: What do you consider to be the shortcomings of the Houthis?

A: Since they are now in charge of the county, Houthis should pay more attention to political work, and they should develop a convincing program, so that they can really present themselves as a superior alternative to Hadi the traitor and the Muslim Brotherhood.

Q: Did you know that they would take over Sanaa?

A: I have already clarified that I did not know that they would enter Sanaa, and that the person who was aware of that was the traitor Hadi, who helped them in order to undermine the Muslim Brotherhood and to get rid of them, as he did when he brought down Amran and got rid of Awlad al-Ahmar after they all became a burden.

Q: Among Saudi Arabia, Iran and Gulf countries, which do you consider a friend of the Yemeni people?

A: They are all friends. After its aggression on Yemen, Saudi Arabia is no longer a friend. It is a country that has assaulted my country and the Yemeni people.

The entire interview deserves a full read at Huffington Post Arabi.

Obama’s Speech on Iran Nuclear Deal

President Barack Obama today gave a comprehensive speech on the nuclear deal with Iran at the American University in Washington. To read the text of the speech, please click here. Following are few highlights:

• In July, we reached a comprehensive of plan of action that meets our objectives. Under its terms, Iran is never allowed to build a nuclear weapon. And while Iran, like any party to the nuclear non- proliferation treaty, is allowed to access peaceful nuclear energy, the agreement strictly defines the manner in which its nuclear program can proceed, ensuring that all pathways to a bomb are cut off.
• Under this deal, Iran cannot acquire the plutonium needed for a bomb. The core of its heavy reactor at Arak will be pulled out, filled with concrete, replaced with one that will not produce plutonium for a weapon. The spent fuel from that reactor will be shipped out of the country, and Iran will not build any new heavy water reactors for at least 15 years.
  
• Iran will also not be able to acquire the enriched uranium that could be used for a bomb. As soon as this deal is implemented, Iran will remove two-thirds of its centrifuges. For the next decade, Iran will not enrich uranium with its more advanced centrifuges. Iran will not enrich uranium at the previously undisclosed Fordo facility, which is very deep underground, for at least 15 years.
  
• Iran will get rid of 98 percent of its stockpile of enriched uranium, which is currently enough for up to 10 nuclear bombs for the next 15 years. Even after those 15 years have passed, Iran will never have the right to use a peaceful program as cover to pursue a weapon, and in fact this deal shuts off the type of covert path Iran pursued in the past.
  
• There will be 24/7 monitoring of Iran's key nuclear facilities. For decades, inspectors will have access to Iran's entire nuclear supply chain, from the uranium mines and mills where they get raw materials to the centrifuge production facilities where they make machines to enrich it. And understand why this is so important.
  
• And finally, Iran has powerful incentives to keep its commitments. Before getting sanctions relief, Iran has to take significant concrete steps, like removing centrifuges and getting rid of its stock piles. If Iran violates the agreement over the next decade, all of the sanctions can snap back into place. We won't need the support of other members of the U.N. Security Council, America can trigger snap back on our own.
• We have no illusions about the Iranian government or the significance of the Revolutionary Guard and the Quds Force. Iran supports terrorist organizations like Hezbollah. It supports proxy groups that threaten our interests and the interests of our allies, including proxy groups who killed our troops in Iraq.
• I recognize that resorting to force may be tempting in the face of the rhetoric and behavior that emanates from parts of Iran. It is offensive. It is incendiary. We do take it seriously... But superpowers should not act impulsively in response to taunts or even provocations that can be addressed short of war. Just because Iranian hardliners chant "Death to America" does not mean that that's what all Iranians believe.
• Walk away from this agreement, and you will get a better deal -- for Iran.

Photo credit: President Obama speaks Wednesday (Susan Walsh/AP)

 

  

U.S. to Send More Troops to Iraq

President Obama has authorized the deployment of up to 450 additional U.S. military personnel to train, advise, and assist Iraqi Security Forces at Taqaddum military base in eastern Anbar province. The president made the decision after a request from Prime Minister Al-Abadi of Iraq. These additional U.S. troops will augment the 3,100 troops who have already been deployed to Iraq.

Obama has also directed the expedited delivery of equipment and materiel to Iraqi forces, including the Peshmerga and Sunni tribal fighters. The deliveries will be coordinated with the central government in Baghdad.

Asharq al-Awsat: Obama on U.S. Policy in Middle East

Obama Calls Iran a ‘State Sponsor of Terrorism’

President Barack Obama in an interview with Asharq al-Awsat discuses U.S. foreign policy in the region; how to use all elements of American power to secure U.S. interests in the Middle East. It is in this interview that Obama says Iran is a ‘state sponsor of terrorism.’ 

To read the interview, please click here.

Photo: President Obama at the White House; 11 may 2015 (Kevin Lamarque/Reuters/Asharq al-Awsat)

Iraqi Prime Minister at White House

Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi today met with President Obama at the White House. An Iraqi official told CNN after the meeting that the prime minister made a request to Obama for enhanced U.S. military support, including increased airstrikes against ISIL positions.

The Iraqi official pointed to recent ISIL attacks on the Baiji oil refinery as a reason for boosting U.S.-Iraqi military cooperation. “If we can enhance the current cooperation, then we can avoid these sorts of attack,” the official told CNN.

Asked by reporters about Iraqi requests to enhance military cooperation and purchase more military equipment, like helicopters and drones, Obama said that the reason for the meeting today was to discuss such issues.

“I think this is why we are having this meeting to make sure that we are continually improving our coordination to make sure Iraqi security forces are in a position to succeed in our common mission,” President Obama said at a joint press conference with Prime Minister Abadi. (CNN, 14 April)

Aside from military cooperation, the prime minister also requested joint efforts on areas like economic development opportunities in Iraq.

Also, the White House announced that the U.S. has offered Iraq $200 million for urgent humanitarian projects.

Photo credit: Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abedi (L) and President Barack Obama with reporters at the Oval Office at the White House; 14 April 2015 (Jonathan Ernst/Reuters)

Misunderstanding Munich

Obama is not Chamberlain, Lausanne is not Munich and Iran isn't Nazi Germany.

by Paul Iddon

Neville Chamberlain waving Munich Agreement, 1938.

A recent article on Slate discussed a 2008 interview in which an American senator adamantly argued that U.S. President Barack Obama was like Neville Chamberlain vis-á-vis Iran, even though he did not actually know who Chamberlain was. The short article concluded that Munich analogies for modern day politics and events “needs to be taken into a bunker with Eva Braun and shot.”

This scribbler loves historical comparisons and believes that any analogy to Munich should only be used sparingly, if ever, given the magnitude and significance that event has in the history of the 20th century. In accordance with this firm-held belief I believe that comparing Obama to Chamberlain and contending that the recent deal over Iran's nuclear program is the equivalent to Chamberlain's appeasement of Adolf Hitler and ceding to him the Sudetenland, when the Führer was on the ascent to conquering most of Europe, is fatally flawed, not to mention overly simplistic.

For one thing Iran wasn't necessarily appeased. Yes it gets to keep parts of its nuclear program but it is clear that the U.S. is ceding much less to Iran than Iran is ceding to it in order to get some of the economic sanctions leveled against it lifted. It appears clear that many of the wide-ranging sanctions on Iran are impediments and obstacles, not assets, to welcome bottom-up political change, in the long-term, to the present order in Iran. Furthermore, the salient distinction for anyone who knows anything about Munich is the fact that the United States is tremendously more powerful militarily than Iran. The opposite was the case with the United Kingdom and Nazi Germany in 1938. Also, don't forget that Germany was appeased and allowed to rearm substantially before Chamberlain became Prime Minister (the Anglo-German Naval Agreement was in 1935, Chamberlain became Prime Minister two years later) and when it became self-evident that appeasement wouldn't quell Hitler's ambitions to conquer Europe it was Chamberlain's Britain, along with France, which warned Germany that if it would go to war over Poland if Germany invaded it. And indeed it was that September 1939 invasion of Poland which sparked the wider war between the UK and its allies on the one side, and Germany on the other. The rest, as the saying goes, is history.

Merely implying that the United States is a weaker power militarily than Iran today is risible. Also, the notion that it is appeasing it and will ever let it, especially under this regime, become anything more than a nuclear “threshold” state which could potentially threaten Israel or its regional allies is also extremely doubtful. A war against Iran will likely serve to empower the regime, do great damage to the country, and probably see to the population suffer tremendously as a result. This regime, remember, cemented its hold power following Saddam Hussein's 1980 invasion of western Iran and the Ayatollah Khomeini's subsequent counter-offensive into Iraq in mid-1982. Another war will likely see that regime further empowered, the Revolutionary Guards garner even more economic clout and power and the Iranian people as a whole weakened further and further rendered unable to determine the trajectory their ship-of-state is taking them. Surely a deal which will see Iran prevented from becoming a nuclear power would be a much better outcome. Especially if one really does care about Iran and its people but isn't enamored, to put it mildly, by the ruling regime and its various actions and policies at home and abroad.

Khamenei’s Secret Letter to Obama - Report

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei wrote a secret correspondence to President Barack Obama in recent weeks, responding to the president’s letter in October, The Wall Street Journal reported on Friday.

The White House declined to comment on Khamenei’s letter, but the Journal said the letter was “respectful,” but was noncommittal in responding to Obama’s suggestion that the two countries should cooperate in battling the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria should the two sides reach a nuclear deal (The Wall Street Journal/AFP, 13 February)

The Journal also reports that the secret letter to Obama was the second from Khamenei since the president took office in 2009. The full text of the letters, however, remained unpublished.

News of Khamenei-Obama correspondence came as Iran and the world powers were working toward a 31 March deadline to reach a political agreement, also called a framework agreement, on Iran’s nuclear program.

UPDATE: Al-Monitor on a report dated 12 November 2014, quoted the chairman of Iran's Supreme National Security Council Ali Shamkhani that Obama's letters to Khamenei had been answered.

File photo: Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (Khamenei.ir/AFP)

Obama in Saudi Arabia

President Barack Obama travelling with a 27-strong delegation arrived in Riyadh today to pay respects to the memory of the late King Abdullah and to meet with King Salman bin Abdul Aziz Al Saud, the Kingdom’s new ruler. The delegation accompanying Obama includes Secretary of State John Kerry, CENTCOM Commander GEN Lloyd Austin, CIA Director John Brennan and Senator John McCain.

National Security Council spokesman Ben Rhodes said the president wants the same kind of relationship with the new king that he had with Abdullah, in which “we’re able to move forward on areas of common interest and able to be very candid and frank with one another about developments in the region.” (AFP, 27 January)

Photo credit: President Obama meets with Saudi King Salman; Riyadh, 27 January 2015 (Saul Loeb/AFP/Getty Images)

Senate Democrats to Hold Off on New Iran Bill

U.S. Senator Bob Menendez, co-sponsor of legislation that would tighten sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program, said today he and other Democratic senators would not vote for the passage of the bill until a 24 March deadline for reaching a framework agreement between Iran and world powers. President Obama has said voting for the legislation at this time could upset talks now under way with Iran, and pledged he would veto it.

Menendez said he and his Democratic colleagues have sent a letter to the president telling him they will not support passage of the Kirk-Menendez bill on Senate floor “until after March 24 and only if there is no political framework agreement.” (HuffPost, 27 January)

File photo: U.S. Senator Bob Menendez (D-NJ); April 2014 (Drew Angerer/Getty Images/HuffPost)

References to Iran in President Obama’s State of the Union Address

President Obama told Congress he would veto new sanctions on Iran as they “all but guarantee that diplomacy fails.” The president also said that the American people expect the administration to “only go to war as a last resort.”

“It does not make sense,” Obama said of new sanctions. “I will veto any new sanctions bill that threatens to undo this progress. The American people expect us to only go to war as a last resort.”

“Between now and this spring, we have a chance to negotiate a comprehensive agreement that prevents a nuclear-armed Iran; secures America and our allies – including Israel; while avoiding yet another Middle East conflict,” the president said.

“There are no guarantees that negotiations will succeed, and I keep all options on the table to prevent a nuclear Iran,” Obama added. “But new sanctions passed by this Congress, at this moment in time, will all but guarantee that diplomacy fails.”

The message was clear: Let's give diplomacy a chance, and war as a last resort.

Photo credit: President Barak Obama delivering his State of the Union address to a joint session of the U.S. Congress; 20 January 2015 (politico)