Thursday, June 19, 2008

Israeli Diplomatic Preparations for War Against Iran?

To the south, an Israeli truce has been concluded with Hamas. To the east, discussions are underway addressing the Golan Heights with Syria. And to the north, the Israelis are promoting a diplomatic overture to the Lebanese, indicating a willingness to turn over the Sheeba Farms and even discussing a prisoner exchange. Is it possible that this is a concerted diplomatic strategy, in preparation for war with Iran?

Before an offensive action is taken against Iran, it would make sense for Israel to quiet matters along its disputed borders, in an effort to lower the threshold of hostilities. Even if the attack on Iran came solely from the US, this diplomatic strategy would still address the needs of Israel, which is considered a Middle East extension of the US by Iran and its allies. Launching a war against the Islamic Republic is a bold step. This diplomatic strategy would reduce the risk somewhat, of sympathetic players engaging in forms of belligerent intervention. Syria, Hamas and even Hezbollah would be put in positions of loss for actions taken against Israel as allies of Iran.

Whether or not this diplomatic strategy would be successful is open to speculation. Without such gains afforded to Iran's allies, there is certainly less at stake to deter them from taking belligerent forms of reprisal against Israel.

1 comment:

Kemjika said...

yup, this sounds quite logical. israel is weaker than it really looks. It has power, but not as much effect. Its acts tough, but can't back it up fully in action. First of all, they can't even take on iran on their own because if they could, why do they keep budging US to co-operate with them or start the war?YOu are very correct. Iran will never be as determined in fighting an enemy as they will with israel. Public opinion in the middle east will crucify israel if it attacks iran, let alone use a nuke on them. THey are in a tight spot, and not as ammunition rich as they might need to be to fight iran(why did they ask US for more Jdams in the hezbollah war after several days?).Israel is afraid of the deadly multi-pronged attack, but it will happen either way. Even if syria cuts off ties with hezbollah, hezbollah will still professionally fight israel.