UAE: Top American Partner in Arab World

The Washington Post’s Rajiv Chandrasekaran on Sunday wrote a piece on UAE’s Al-Dhafra Air Base. The vast desert airfield hosts U.S. fighter jets, which night after night for the past six weeks have taken off heading north on bombing runs over Iraq and Syria.

The Pentagon does not publicly acknowledge the American presence at Al-Dhafra, but the twin-runway airfield has become a vital part of U.S.-led campaign against the Islamic State.

On many nights, the U.S. planes are accompanied by a wave of F-16 Fighting Falcons operated by the UAE’s air force, Chandrasekaran reports. The UAE has indeed become America’s closest ally in the fight against ISIL.

“The UAE has gone all in,” said retired General Anthony Zinni, a former CENTCOM commander. “It’s the strongest relationship that the United States has in the Arab world today.” (The Washington Post, 9 November)

Shared concerns over the rise of militant Islam and Iran’s regional policies and nuclear program are likely to be the foundation of the growing U.S.-UAE relationship.

File photo: Emblem of the 380th Air Expeditionary Wing (380 AEW), attached to U.S. Air Force Central (AFCENT) stationed at Al-Dhafar Air Base, the UAE.

Former Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki in Tehran

 

Above: IRI Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei met with former Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki on 10NOV14. The former prime minister currently holds office as an Iraqi vice president.

Maliki's arrival in Tehran comes roughly three weeks after Iraq's current Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi flew to Tehran to hold talks with senior Iranian leaders.

SL Khamenei's reception of Maliki indicates Tehran continues to support Maliki as a relevant political player in Iraqi politics, suggesting implications for both U.S.-led and Iran-led coalitions in the war against ISIL.

Maliki also met with a representative of Iran's executive branch of government, IRI First Vice President Eshaq Jahangiri.

Here, Maliki is seen with Ali Larijani, speaker of Iran's legislative branch of government

Photos: Fars News Agency, and Mohammad Ali Marizad at Tasnim News Agency

Obama on Iran

President Obama today spoke to Bob Schieffer on CBS ‘Face the Nation.’ Below are excerpts of Obama’s comments related to Iran and the region.

• Our number one priority with respect to Iran is making sure they don’t get nuclear weapon... The question now is: Are we going to be able to close this final gap so that they can reenter the international community, sanctions can be slowly reduced and we have verifiable, lock-tight assurances that they can’t develop a nuclear weapon... There's still a big gap... We may not be able to get there.

• Second thing that we have an interest is that Iran has influence over the Shia – both in Syria and in Iraq and we do have a shared enemy in ISIL.

• We are focused on our common enemy but there’s no coordination or common battle plan (with Iran) and there will not be…There’s some de-conflicting in the sense that… we let them know, don’t mess with us; we’re not here to mess with you.

• I’ve been very clear publicly and privately we are not connecting in any way the nuclear negotiations and the issue of ISIL.

• It’s an almost absolute certainty that [Assad] has lost legitimacy with such a large portion of the country by dropping barrel bombs and killing children… that he can’s regain the kind of legitimacy that would stitch Syria together again. 

Photo credit: President Barack Obama talking to Bob Schieffer during an interview on Face the Nation; the Oval Office, 9 November 2014 (CBS)

Kerry, Zarif Talks Begin in Muscat

The meeting between Secretary of State John Kerry, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif and EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton got underway on Sunday in Muscat, Oman. Negotiators from the rest of P5+1 will join the talks on Tuesday.

Photo credit: Secretary of State John Kerry and Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif shaking hands, as Omani Foreign Minister Yussef bin Alawai and Catherine Ashton, chairperson of nuclear talks, look on; Muscat, 9 November 2014 (IRNA)

U.S. escalation against ISIL, and the Iran response

This week's snippets from the media proceeded by commentary:

 

Above: file photo depicting members of United States Air Force Special Operations Command (AFSOC), in training

American military force escalation against ISIL in Iraq
According to BBC, dated 07NOV14:

The US is to send 1,500 more non-combat troops to Iraq to boost Iraqi forces fighting Islamic State (IS) militants, the White House says.

The Pentagon said the troops would train and assist Iraqi forces.

President Barack Obama authorised the deployment following a request from Iraq's government, the Pentagon added.

COMMENTARY: This announcement was expected, following soon after the U.S. midterm elections. POTUS will be involving Republican-led United States Congress in the escalation of the war in the Middle East. For an informed discussion of such, see HERE.


Planned U.S.-led Iraqi spring offensive 
According to the New York Times, dated 02NOV14:

Iraqi security forces, backed by American-led air power and hundreds of advisers, are planning to mount a major spring offensive against Islamic State fighters who have poured into the country from Syria, a campaign that is likely to face an array of logistical and political challenges.

The goal is to break the Islamic State’s occupation in northern and western Iraq, and establish the Iraqi government’s control over Mosul and other population centers, as well as the country’s major roads and its border with Syria by the end of 2015, according to American officials.

The basic strategy calls for attacking fighters from the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, with a goal of isolating them in major strongholds like Mosul.

That could enable Iraqi troops, Kurdish pesh merga units and fighters that have been recruited from Sunni tribes to take on a weakened foe that has been cut off from its supply lines and reinforcements in Syria, which are subject to American airstrikes.

{…}

Iraq’s Shiite militias, some of which have been supported by Iran, pose another obstacle. Antony J. Blinken, President Obama’s deputy national security adviser, said last week that it was important that the Shiite militias be withdrawn, disband or have their members integrated into Iraq’s security forces.

But Fuad Masum, the Iraqi president, has suggested that the militias could be needed until the Islamic State was thoroughly defeated.

A major challenge will be synchronizing the Iraqi campaign with the American effort to train the beleaguered moderate Syrian opposition. The Pentagon’s program to train 5,000 Syrian rebel fighters a year in Saudi Arabia and Turkey has yet to get underway, which raises the possibility that Islamic State fighters could be pushed back into Syria well before there is a trained and equipped Syrian rebel force to oppose them.

COMMENTARY: What to do with the Shia militias and Iranian influence in Iraq? The Shia militias see the upcoming force empowerment of the Sunni tribes as U.S. led favoritism towards the opposing end of the sectarian divide. Telling, are the following reecent remarks made by AAH Depurty Commander Tabatabai, as reported by ABNA on 01NOV14:

“We proclaim that we will not accept the presence of any American forces on Iraqi soil, apart from the permanent staff at the U.S. embassy. Our weapons are not only for ISIL or Takfiris, but Americans occupation forces will also be targeted.”

COMMENTARY: Whether or not this is posturing by AAH on behalf of the IRGC-QF cannot be determined from this vantage point. But it is clearly evident elements of the Iran-led coalition in Iraq against ISIL are making noise in seeking attention, leading up to the long build-up preceding this spring's U.S.-led Iraqi offensive.


POTUS letter to SL/ IRIG 
According to the Wall Street Journal, dated 06NOV14:

President Barack Obama secretly wrote to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the middle of last month and described a shared interest in fighting Islamic State militants in Iraq and Syria, according to people briefed on the correspondence.

The letter appeared aimed both at buttressing the campaign against Islamic State and nudging Iran’s religious leader closer to a nuclear deal.

Mr. Obama stressed to Mr. Khamenei that any cooperation on Islamic State was largely contingent on Iran reaching a comprehensive agreement with global powers on the future of Tehran’s nuclear program by a Nov. 24 diplomatic deadline, the same people say.

COMMENTARY: Last August the Iranian Foreign Ministry made public a general offer of linkage between American concessions being made in the nuclear negotiations (such as removal of all sanctions), and Iran's assistance with the U.S.-led war against ISIL.

Perhaps the POTUS letter to SL/IRIG was a form of response to the FM/IRIG public remarks on the subject. Whatever the case, it is the opinion of this writer that it is in the interests of both Iran and the U.S. to cooperate, in waging war against ISIL and al-Qaeda affiliates. Parallel, uncoordinated efforts-- or worse, conflict between allied elements of the two-- represent potential complications to be avoided in pursuing a swift and effective conclusion to war against ISIL.


Syria's initial response to upcoming U.S. military force escalation in region 
According to Al Arabiya News, dated 06NOV14:

The Syrian regime of President Bashar al-Assad feared the rise of Republicans in the U.S. Congress and began preparing for a potential radical shift in U.S. foreign policy towards Syria, statements by the country’s foreign minister revealed on Thursday.

Damascus was afraid that the rise of Republicans could mount pressure on President Barack Obama to launch military strikes against the regime army’s installations in Syria and has asked Russia to speed up the delivery of a powerful air defense system, Foreign Minister Walid Muallem said in an interview with Lebanon’s al-Akhbar newspaper.

Washington had pledged that air strikes against the Islamist State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) would not target Syria army targets, the foreign minister said.

[…]

“This is what we explained bluntly to the Russians, and we asked them to use take advantage of the situation and provide us with advanced weapons,” he said.

Asked if he was referring to S-300 anti-aircraft missiles, which Damascus has long sought from Russia, Muallem replied: “Yes, and other advanced weapons.”

“We will get them and other advanced weapons in a reasonable period,” he said.

COMMENTARY: The Syrians are obviously worried should the post-midterm election, U.S.-led  military escalation target the Syrian military.

At this point in time, it would surprise this writer to see Russia resume deliveries of S-300 components to Syria. The Russians haven't delivered the S-300 to Iran, and they suspended delivery of components to Syria.

The United States has to date not targeted the Syrian military, so a Russian delivery at this point in time could be seen as a provocation.

This week the United States military did launch airstrikes against elements of JAN, an al-Qaeda affiliate. Observers such as Bill Roggio at LWJ find the CENTCOM identification of "Khorasan Group" misleading, as he and others believe it's more appropriate to identify the target as JAN and al-Qaeda. This writer is of the opinion there are valid reasons of a political nature for CENTCOM to ID the target(s) as "Khorasan," with regards to local Syrian opposition "hearts and minds" as well as perhaps Arab state members of the coalition.

U.S. to Send 1,500 More Troops to Iraq

President Obama has authorized the deployment of an additional 1,500 U.S. troops to Iraq in the coming months, the Defense Department announced today. The move will double the number of advisors sent to assist Iraqi and Kurdish security forces in the battle against the Islamic State.

The U.S. military advisors will also establish a number of additional training sites across Iraq, in a significant expansion of the American involvement in the war. A number of new advisors will be deployed to the restive Anbar province.

The Pentagon said the decision to increase the number of advisor deployed to Iraq was based on United States Central Command’s assessment of Iraqi military units, the progress Iraqi security forces have made since June, and in concert with the development of a coalition plan to defend key areas and go on offensive against ISIL.

A Pentagon official said Friday that a group of military advisors will assist Iraqi troops at the brigade level, and a second group would train troops.

IAEA: Iran Has Not Provided Explanations on Possible Military Dimensions of Nuclear Program

In its latest report on Iranian nuclear program, IAEA said Friday that its attempts to probe allegations that Iran worked on nuclear weapons were deadlocked. The finding on possible military dimensions of Iranian nuclear program could undermine chances for reaching a comprehensive nuclear agreement before the 24 November deadline.

Iran signed an agreement with IAEA in February to clear ambiguities about its alleged previous work on high-explosive detonators that can be used to set off nuclear explosions; work on high-explosive charges used in nuclear blasts; and alleged studies on calculating nuclear explosive yields. These are among the steps necessary to build a nuclear weapon. Since February, Iran has provided information only on detonators, saying they were used for oil exploration.

“Iran has not provided any explanations that enable the agency to clarify the outstanding practical measures,” said the IAEA report. (AP, 7 November)

File photo: Iranian President Hassan Rouhani (r.) greeting IAEA chief Yukiya Amano during a meeting in Tehran; August 2014 (Mohammad Berno/Iranian Presidency/AP)

No U.S.-Iran Military Coordination against ISIL - Rice

U.S. national security advisor Susan Rice said on Friday the United States is not engaged in military coordination with Iran on countering Islamic State forces in Iraq and Syria. 

“We are in no way engaged in any coordination – military coordination – with Iran on countering ISIL,” said Rice at a White House briefing. 

Photo credit: U.S. national security advisor Susan Rice at a news briefing at the White House; 7 November 2014 (Reuters)

Obama’s Letter to Khamenei on ISIL

And Obama’s Comments on Nuclear Talks

President Barack Obama wrote a letter to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei last month, laying out a shared interest in fighting the Islamic State, The Wall Street Journal reported today. Obama used the letter to win support for U.S.-led strikes against ISIL, and to push for a deal over Iran’s nuclear program ahead of the 24 November deadline.

White House spokesperson Josh Ernest said at a news conference on Thursday that he could not confirm the letter.

Meanwhile, in his Wednesday’s press conference on the Republican electoral victories, Obama was asked to explain the state of nuclear negotiations days before the deadline. Following are the Q&A segment dealing with Iran.

QUESTION: Another deadline coming up is on your negotiators by November 24th. I’m interested what your current perspective is on how those negotiations are going. Also, if it is your feeling that you have the power to implement any type of agreement that’s reached without any action from Congress?

OBAMA: On Iran, because of the unprecedented sanctions that we put in place that really did have a crippling effect on Iran’s economy, they’ve come to the table and they’ve negotiated seriously around providing assurances that they're not developing a nuclear weapon for the first time.  And they have abided by the interim rules.  We have been able to freeze their program, in some cases reduce the stockpile of nuclear material that they already had in hand.  And the discussions, the negotiations have been constructive. 

The international community has been unified and cohesive.  There haven’t been a lot of cracks in our alliance.  Even countries where we have some differences, like Russia, have agreed with us and have worked with us cooperatively in trying to find ways to make sure that we can verify and have confidence going forward that Iran doesn't have the capacity to develop a nuclear weapon that could not only threaten friends of ours like Israel, trigger a nuclear arms race in the region, but could over the long term, potentially threaten us.

Whether we can actually get a deal done, we’re going to have to find out over the next three to four weeks.  We have presented to them a framework that would allow them to meet their peaceful energy needs.  And if, in fact, what their leadership says, that they don’t want to develop a nuclear a weapon -- if that is, in fact, true, then they’ve got an avenue here to provide that assurance to the world community, and in a progressive, step-by-step, verifiable way, allow them to get out from under sanctions so that they can reenter as full-fledged members of the international community.

But they have their own politics, and there’s a long tradition of mistrust between the two countries.  And there’s a sizeable portion of the political elite that cut its teeth on anti-Americanism and still finds it convenient to blame America for every ill that there is.  And whether they can manage to say yes to what clearly would be better for Iran, better for the region, and better for the world, is an open question.  We’ll find out over the next several weeks.

QUESTION: Sir, on whether or not you have the power unilaterally to relax sanctions to implement an agreement?

OBAMA:  There are a series of different sanctions.  There are multilateral sanctions; there are U.N. sanctions;  there are sanctions that have been imposed by us, this administration, unilaterally.  And I think it’s different for each of those areas.

But I don’t want to put the cart before the horse.  What I want to do is see if we, in fact, have a deal.  If we do have a deal that I have confidence will prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon, and that we can convince the world and the public will prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon, then it will be time to engage in Congress.  And I think that we’ll be able to make a strong argument to Congress that this is the best way for us to avoid a nuclear Iran; that it will be more effective than any other alternatives we might take, including military action.

But that requires it being a good deal.  And I’ve said consistently that I’d rather have no deal than a bad deal -- because what we don’t want to do is lift sanctions and provide Iran legitimacy but not have the verifiable mechanisms to make sure that they don’t break out and produce a nuclear weapon.

Photo credit: President Barack Obama at a news conference on Wednesday 5 November at the White House (Jacquelyn Martin/AP)

  

Nuclear Deal Harder After 24 November - Kerry

Secretary of State John Kerry said reaching a nuclear deal between Iran and P5+1 will be more difficult if negotiations drag beyond the 24 November deadline. Kerry made the comments ahead of his planned weekend talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif in Muscat.

“I think it gets more complicated if you can’t meet the deadline,” Kerry said. (Reuters, 5 November)

Iran Navy ’32nd Fleet’ sent to Gulf of Aden

According to PressTV:

The 32nd fleet of the Iranian Navy has left the country's southern port of Bandar Abbas for the Gulf of Aden to provide security for shipping lines in the region.

The fleet of warships, which includes the Jamaran destroyer and Bushehr logistic vessel, left Bandar Abbas on Tuesday.

The flotilla will sail through the strategic Strait of Hormuz, Bandar Jask, the Sea of Oman, Makran region, north of the Indian Ocean, Gulf of Aden and the strait of Bab al-Mandab.

It has been dispatched to the Gulf of Aden to protect the Islamic Republic’s interests in remote waters.

That would be IRINS Jamaran guided missile frigate and IRINS Bushehr replenishment ship, see file media below:

IRINS Jamaran (76) Moudge class guided missile frigate (FFGH)

 

IRINS Bushehr (422) Bandar Abbas class replenishment ship (AORLH)

Oil Falling

Oil prices kept plummeting on Tuesday, with Brent down nearly $2 a barrel, trading at around $83, a 25 percent loss over June prices, and lowest in more than four years.  

Iran to Ship Its Stockpile of Enriched Uranium to Russia

As Part of Proposed Nuclear Deal

Iran has tentatively agreed to ship much of its stockpile of enriched uranium to Russia if it reaches a comprehensive nuclear accord with the West, the New York Times reported. The arrangement with Russia is potentially a major breakthrough in the talks, significantly increasing the odds for a nuclear agreement before the 24 November deadline.

Under the proposed agreement, the Russians would convert the uranium into specialized fuel rods for the Bushehr nuclear power plant, making it extremely difficult to be used in production of a nuclear weapon. The arrangement would also make it possible for the West to agree to a higher number of centrifuges in operation as part of the comprehensive deal, because Iran would have practically no pre-existing stockpile of enriched uranium to shorten its breakout capability. The number of centrifuges had become a major sticking point in the negotiations.

Oil Prices Keep Dropping

Oil prices dropped again today, with Brent losing more than a dollar to post below $85/barrel mark. The plummeting prices in the past two months are causing serious budgetary problems for Iran and other Persian Gulf producers.  Declining

1 WTC Opens for Business

One World Trade Center at New World Trade Center 

The 94-story building, tallest in the U.S., shares a name with the northern Twin Tower that was destroyed in September 11 terrorist attacks in New York.

Photo credit: Robert Deutsch/USA Today

Shia Pilgrims Killed in Baghdad on Eve of Ashura

Multiple bomb explosions on Monday have killed at least 34 Shia pilgrims participating in Tasua commemoration marches in Baghdad. Tasua marks the day Shia Imam Hossein was wounded in the battle of Karbala against Umayyad Caliph Yazid in 680 A.D., and died a day later, on Ashura, the tenth day, of Muharram. For Shias, Hossein has become the symbol of martyrdom and Tasua and Ashura are commemorated to highlight Shia courage and resistance against the enemy.

Photo credit: Shia mourners commemorating the eve of Ashura; Tehran, 3 November 2014 (IRNA)

Largest Naval Exercise in Persian Gulf and Beyond

A total of 6.500 personnel and 38 warships from 44 navies are taking part in a U.S.-led naval exercise in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, Gulf of Aden, and Red Sea. The focus of the exercise, which started on Sunday and will run through 13 November, is maritime security operations and mine countermeasures in critical choke points of the Strait of Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb and Suez Canal.

“The tremendous number of nations participating in this exercise sends a clear signal that threats to global commerce will not be tolerated, said Vice Admiral John Miller, the commander of U.S. 5th Fleet, the naval component of U.S. CENTCOM.

Meanwhile, IRGC Navy commander, Rear Admiral Ali Fadavi, said the U.S. Navy should withdraw from the Persian Gulf. The American fleet is based in Bahrain and has been operating in the Gulf for decades.

“Destroying and drowning American warships, (including) aircraft carrier, have been and will remain on our program,” Fadavi said.

File photo: U.S. Navy mine countermeasure ships, from right to left, USS Dextrous, USS Sentry, DSS Devastator and USS Pioneer; the Persian Gulf, August 2012. (U.S. Navy/AP)

Why hasn't IRGC-QF relieved Kobane?, Americans assisting YPG, Battles of Kobane & Khe Sanh

Two weeks ago at Uskowi on Iran, in referencing a Hurriyet Daily News report that the Turkish Foreign Ministry had summoned Iranian Ambassador to Turkey Alireza Bigdeli over statements from Iranian officials criticizing Ankara’s policies on Syria and blocking aid to Kobane, it was pointed out that Iranian forces and their allied Shia militias in Syria had not come to the aide of the Kurdish fighters in Kobane. What followed was a spirited debate over the matter in the comments section of two consecutive posts related to the subject.

A convenient map by Thomas van Linge has since materialized which illustrates the overall military situation in Syria, as well as IRGC-QF allied lines and positions. As is clearly visible, the nearest military forces to Kobane allied with IRGC-QF are roughly 150 km to the southwest and blocked by ISIL. Their shortest potential route towards Kobane would be Syrian motorway M4 and Route 20, which are ordinary roads; with the Euphrates River posing a potential water obstacle along the way.

Note also that closest IRGC-QF allied positions are currently engaged in position warfare in and about Aleppo, and that disengaging to attack eastward would seriously undermine their northernmost front. Moreover, such an eastward thrust would render exposed flanks the entire way should a penetration be achieved (which is doubtful).

The map also well illustrates the implausibility of providing logistical support by land for any IRGC-QF allied airmobile force inserted into Kobane-- in itself a high risk undertaking-- as well as the implausibility of an Iranian force transiting Iraq, where the Iraqi government would need to OK said force fighting their way through roughly 600 kilometers of enemy held territory-- a major offensive undertaking well beyond the logistical capabilities of Iran's Army and IRGC. The alternative would be an Iranian military force transiting Turkey to reach Kobane, which has zero chance of being approved by the Turks.

Below is a photographic depiction of what the Iranian Foreign Ministry was criticizing. Turkish Army M48 main battle tanks sit idle on a ridge within sight of Kobane, as the battle raged there three weeks ago. Turkish Army attitude remains so to the present day.

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Meanwhile American volunteers have joined Kurdish forces against ISIL in Syria. See below:

American volunteers fighting alongside YPG in Syria. Left to right: Jeremy Woodard (American, former U.S. Army SPC), Jordan Matson (American, former U.S. Army PFC), Sam Fisher (from Austria, said terminated from Ukrainian Army), unidentified (American) and unidentified (American).

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It is this writer's contention that the current American bombing campaign assisting Kobane resembles in reduced scale that of the bombing campaign in support of the Khe Sanh fire base during the Vietnam War. In both cases a besieged ground force put up a determined defense, drawing funneled enemy forces on the offensive, to be pulverized by American tactical airpower that included strategic bombers employed in the tactical bombing role.

 

USAF Rockwell B-1B Lancer strategic bomber appearing above the Kobane battlefield, dated 18OCT14 (photo: AFP). The more ISIL funnels fighters into the Battle of Kobane, the more the battle becomes a meat grinder churned by American tactical airpower.

USAF Boeing B-52 Stratofortress strategic bomber on Aic Light Strike of type employed during Operation Niagara at Battle of Khe Sanh in 1968 (photo: Wikipedia). The more People's Army of Vietnam (PAVN) funneled forces into the Battle of Khe Sanh, the more the battle became a meat grinder churned by American tactical airpower.

Saudi King Suspends Death Sentence for Sheikh Nimr

After Rafsanjani’s Letter

Saudi King Abdullah has stopped the death sentence given to prominent Shia cleric Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr. The king reportedly took the action after receiving a letter from Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani, warning of serious consequences of Nimr’s execution in Shia-Sunni relations, Iraqi new website al-Youm al-Samen reported on Sunday.

“In this period of time that conspiracies have targeted the land of the Islamic Ummah, stopping the sentence for Ayatollah Sheik Nimr Bagher al-Nimr will disappoint those who sow discord, will increase interaction and settle the problems of the Muslim world,” Hashemi Rafsanjani said his letter to King Abdullah, dated 25 October. “Muslims expect you to take such a decision.” (Al-Youm al-Samen/Fars News Agency, 2 November)

A Saudi court handed down the death penalty against the Shia cleric on 15 October after convicting him of sedition for delivering anti-regime speeches and defending political prisoners. Amnesty International has denounced the sentence as “appalling.”

The execution of Sheikh Nimr could have had dangerous repercussions in Saudi-Iran relations and could have further inflamed the current Sunni-Shia conflict in the region.

File photo: Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani (FNA)

The Omani Conduit

by Paul Iddon

It is no surprise that U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry is meeting Iran's Foreign Minister Javad Zarif in the Sultanate of Oman. Oman after all has had quite a cordial relationship with Iran since 1979.

Sultan Qaboos and Ayatollah Khamenei.

“If asked … if our help is asked, we will give it. And this is what we are doing in Muscat and Oman. But we are fighting … terrorists. Some people call them army of liberation. But what are they? Just savages in the mountains, living like goats, and acting like terrorists.”

That was the last Shah of Iran in 1974 answering a question regarding the deployment of Iranian forces beyond Iran's own territory. The Shah took up the opportunity to rather haughtily dismiss the communist insurgency, which he was assisting the Sultan of Oman (Sultan Qaboo's) to put down. That effort consisted of some 1,200 Iranian Army forces decisively backing Qaboo's forces and helped him to overcome the threat to his rule. Saudi Arabia had supported the rudiments of that revolt against Oman some years earlier. Its relations with Oman weren't very cordial considering their prior clashing over who owned the Buraimi Oasis.

In relation to Iran-Oman relations 1974 was a very important year given the fact it was that year that both countries mutually defined their territorial waters and also agreed to allow each other to police the others territorial waters, given their proximity to the strategically important Strait of Hormuz waterway. More recently there has even been talk about directly connecting Iran and Oman via a “high bridge over the Strait of Hormuz.”

After the Shah's fall in 1979 and the ascendance of the present regime both countries still retained relatively cordial ties. Throughout the Iran-Iraq War while Oman wasn't particularly happy with Iran mining the Persian Gulf, it never joined other Gulf Cooperation Council member states who supported the brutal Saddam Hussein regime against the Iranians. In fact it retained diplomatic relations with both parties in that war and even hosted ceasefire talks between the two sides on its soil. While they didn't bear fruit they did nevertheless serve as another example of the role Oman has often played as a mediator between Iran and its rivals.

Qaboos himself has visited Iran in recent years and there are plans to construct a $1 billion natural-gas pipeline between it and Iran. Another clear sign that Oman isn't following suit with Saudi-led efforts to bind together the Arab states of the Persian Gulf against the threat they perceive Iran to pose. The present U.S. administration, it shouldn't be forgotten, has even gone as far as to urge the GCC to set aside internal disputes, such as the diplomatic rift with member-state Qatar this year, by collectively uniting militarily against Iran.

An Emirati academic was quoted by Bloomberg earlier this year aptly illustrating the unique nature of Oman. He maintains that, “Oman isn't enthusiastic about integration and cooperation and I don't think it ever will be. The Sultan has always maintained a sense of mysteriousness about Oman, and they think of themselves as somewhat different from the rest of the GCC.”

Furthermore, in the past when the Clinton administration made failed overtures to the Iranians it did so through the Omanis. However, those overtures didn't bear fruit, largely due to suspicions and allegations within the U.S. intelligence community that Iran had a hand in the Khobar Towers bombing of 1996. A bombing it was suspected was carried out by the Saudi Hezbollah group. The Saudis were hesitant about disclosing any evidence they had about the group in apparent fear it would add credence to any justification of a U.S. campaign. While exploring his options at that time for such a campaign Clinton went as far as declaring that he didn't “want any pissant half-measures.”

Though the Omani channel was subsequently closed it once again signified the importance of Oman as a conduit between the U.S. and Iran. Also, the mistakes the United States seemed to have since learned from their conduct back then was their sole reliance on Iran's president as opposed to the ruling establishment and its Supreme Leader as a whole.

Now ahead of what could very well be deemed a historic deal over Iran's nuclear program U.S. Secretary of State Kerry is set to meet Iran's Foreign Minister Zarif later this month – November 9 and 10 – in order to discuss the negotiations ahead of the set deadline, on November 24, for a final agreement. Again for aforementioned reasons it is no coincidence that Oman is where this meeting will transpire. And it won't be surprising if that country continues to serve such a unique role in relation to such issues for the foreseeable future.

Bombings in Baghdad Ahead of Ashura

Bombings in Baghdad have killed at least 24 people, on the eve of Tasua and Ashura, among the holiest days in Shia calendar. In the deadliest of Saturday’s attacks, a suicide bomber detonated an explosive-rigged truck at the checkpoint leading to predominantly Shia neighborhood in south Baghdad, killing 20 people and injuring more than 50.

Pilgrims are taking part in Tasua and Ashura commemorations, which mark the wounding and death of Imam Hossein, one of the most revered figures and the symbol of martyrdom in Shia Islam. This year, the Tasua and Ashura fall on Monday and Tuesday of this week respectively.

Photo credit: Iraqi Shia flagellate themselves in grief during preparation for the commemoration of Tasua and Ashura. (AAP)