Iran Nuclear Talks To Be Held in Istanbul on 24 July

The second rounds of nuclear talks at the technical level between Iran and the P5+1 countries will be held in Istanbul on Tuesday 24 July. EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton said that relevant sides would discuss how differences in opinion could be overcome and how the process could be moved forward.

Annan Heads Off to Tehran After Talks with Syrian President Assad

UN-Arab League special envoy Kofi Annan headed off to Tehran on Monday afternoon after holding talks earlier in the day with the Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus in a last-ditch effort to salvage Syria peace plan. Annan has always wanted to engage Iran, one of the main supporters of Assad, in finding a solution to the Syrian crisis. IRNA reported that Mr. Annan is expected to arrive in Tehran later today.

UPDATE: Russia said today it is halting arms exports to Syria until the situation there calms down, the AP reported.

Liberals Reportedly Leading in Libya

In Libya’s historic parliamentary elections, a liberal alliance appears to be in the lead. The Alliance of National Forces led by Mahmoud Jibril is already claiming victory. Jibril, a senior Gadhafi official-turned-rebel prime minister, serves as the leader of the coalition of more than 40 liberal parties.

Approximately 1.7 million of some 2.8 million registered voters cast their ballots in Saturday’s election. The transitional parliament will have 200 deputies. The official results are not expected until late Monday.

People in Tripoli, Benghazi and other cities are celebrating the first free election in their country’s history with shouts of “Libya is Free,” AP reported.

Abbas to Attend Summit in Tehran

Iran has invited Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas to take part in the forthcoming Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) summit in Tehran, scheduled for 26-31 August. A foreign ministry’s spokesman later announced that Mr. Abbas has accepted the invitation and will attend. Since the take over of Gaza by Hamas and Iran’s support for the move, the Iran-Palestinian Authority relationship has been practically non-existent.

Cost of Living Doubled in 5 Years - CBI

Central Bank of Iran (CBI) said in a report published today that the cost of living for Iranian households doubled in five years, during the period between 2005 and 2010. The annual gross cost of living for households in 2005 averaged 70 million rials, but increased to 141 million rials by 2010. CBI did not release the statistics for the past two years, but based on its previously published inflation reports it is believed that the rate of increase in cost of living has actually accelerated. 


UPDATE: Qolamreza Kateb, a member of Majlis Planning Committee, said today in Tehran that the current inflation rate in the country is 33.5 percent. (Donya-e- Eqtesad, 8 July). The government has not yet released the latest inflation figures. But if Kateb’s assertion is correct, it represents serious worsening of the Iranian economy.

Israelis, Not Their Agents, Killed Iranian Scientists - Report

Washington-based senior journalist Barbara Slavin, currently a correspondent for Al-Moitor and a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, reported today that Israelis, and not Israeli agents, have killed Iranian nuclear scientists. Slavin’s report is based on a recently published book by Dan Raviv, a CBS correspondent, and Yossi Melman, a former intelligence correspondent for Ha’aretz, titled “Spies Against Armageddon.”

The authors say that Israel would not have contracted out such controversial and difficult work, killings by motorcycle riders who affixed sticky bombs to their victims’ cars in Tehran traffic.

“For such a sensitive dangerous and daring mission as a series of assassinations in Iran’s capital, the Mossad would not depend on hired-gun mercenaries,” Raviv and Melman assert. “They would be considered far less trustworthy and there was hardly any chance that the Mossad would reveal to non-Israelis some of its assassination unit’s best methods.”

To read Slavin’s entire report, please click here.

A New Normal for Iran’s Oil Industry

Significant Cutbacks in Exports and Production Expected

A week after the EU embargo of Iranian oil and its ban on insurance coverage of tankers carrying Iran crude, a picture of significant cutbacks in Iran’s oil exports and production is emerging. A survey of oil-related news sites shows that Iran will export an average of 1.1 million barrels per day in the month of July. This figure includes 890,000 bpd delivered to Asian customers.

With prices hovering at around $100 per barrel, Iran’s estimated oil revenues for July would be at a maximum of $3.4 billion. (Considering that Iran heavy crude normally sells few dollars off the dated Brent benchmark, and the fact that Iran has so many tankers filled with unsold crude and in need of deep discounts to sell their cargo, the actual revenues would be closer to $3 billion for the month.)

In July 2011, Iran exported an average 2.2 million barrels per day, and with prices at $110, its monthly revenues were at $7.5 billion. Meaning that Iran in the first month under full sanctions would lose 55 percent of its oil revenues. This is a serious blow to the country’s economy. 

Meanwhile, Iran needs to store the unwanted oil somewhere. The latest figures available show that in April, Iran had to deploy half of its tanker fleet to store oil at anchorage in the Persian Gulf, equating to 33 million barrels of unwanted crude, with capacity to store a further 8 million barrels. (Reuters, 7 July)

However, taking up so much of its tanker fleet capacity to store oil, Iran will find it increasingly more difficult to deliver crude competitively to its Asian customers, like China, India and Japan, on its own tankers insured by Iranian companies (the only alternative to avoid the EU ban on tanker insurance).

Sooner than later, Iran is expected to cut its oil production. With the current trends in exports, Iran might end up cutting production to below 3 million bpd, the lowest since the end of Iran-Iraq war. This is of course easier said than done. Rapid closure of oil wells could seriously and permanently damage them. It is not like turning off the faucets at will.

In the absence of an agreement with the West on its nuclear program, Iran sanctions would remain in effect and its oil customers would even need to further cut their imports to stay in compliance with the new U.S. sanctions. The next few months would be critical for Iran’s oil industry. A new normal is taking shape.

Iran Officials Continue Asserting Capabilities to Hit U.S. Bases

Baqer Hosseini, a member of the Majlis National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, said on Thursday that Great Prophet 7 military maneuvers conducted this week showed Iran’s capabilities to deliver a crushing response to any possible foreign threat. He warned Western warship in the Persian Gulf against creating tensions to avoid Iran’s wrath.

Hosseini is the latest Iranian official to repeat a recent threat by the commander of aerospace division of IRGC, Brig. Gen. Amir-Ali Hajizadeh, that Iran has identified up to 35 U.S. bases in the region, and is prepared to destroy them within minutes of an attack on Iran.

If the recent posturing by Iranian officials meant to raise the price of oil, the markets have not taken notice by much; oil prices not moving significantly since Wednesday when Gen. Hajizadeh made his comments.  

Israeli Singer Rocks Iran Music Scene

My Joys, the latest album by Iranian-born Israeli diva Rita, is sung entirely in Persian. It went gold in Israel in just three weeks, and it has become very popular among the youths in Iran. Israel and Iran can at last agree on one thing: Rita rocks!

Rita Jahanforuz was born in Tehran in 1962, but migrated to Israel along with her family at the age of eight. In 1985, Rita erupted onto Israeli music scene and has since gone to become one of Israel’s top recording artists. Releasing an album entirely in Persian raises some eyebrows among the conservatives in Israel, but My Joys has propelled her to become a sensation in Iranian underground music scene.

Rita’s photo and biographical information: The Times of Israel, 5 July

Great Prophet 7 Maneuvers (2)

Khalij-e Fârs ("Persian Gulf") anti-ship ballistic missile

Khalij-e Fârs ("Persian Gulf") anti-ship ballistic missile

Simulated SSM strikes on mock target

Pahpad-1 ("Seeker-1") UAV

Mohajer-4 UAV launches

Iranian manufactured UAV (1)

Iranian manufactured UAV (2)

Iranian manufactured UAV (3)

Iranian manufactured UAV (4)

UAV control center

Videos






IRINN video stills by Aspahbod and Maydayfire at IMF 

Video: Press TV

The Dark Gene Precedent

 By Paul Iddon

What an Imperial Iranian covert operation against the Soviet Union can tell us about the controversial circumstances surrounding the recent downing of the Turkish F-4 jet by Syria.

Turkish Air Force F-4

Syria and Turkey have made diverging claims -- to say the least -- regarding the recent downing by Syrian air defences of a Turkish Air Force RF-4E Phantom II jet. Turkey whilst conceding the jet did in fact briefly 'accidentally' violate Syrian airspace has continually insisted that the jet was downed illegally over international waters.

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has went as far as to assert that the jet was flying in the same corridor of Syrian airspace that was used by the Israeli Air Force during its strike against a suspected clandestine Syrian nuclear facility in 2007.

Reports have indicated that in cahoots with the CIA the Turks were performing reconnaissance missions to determine the status of Syria's air defense, hence probing it for any blind spots which could be potentially exploited.

Such intelligence would be essential if NATO is to fight a war with Syria.

These circumstances are reminiscent of operations the Shah's Iran undertook against the Soviet Union in cahoots with the CIA throughout the 1970's?

Project Ibex and Dark Gene

In the 1970s the CIA and the Imperial Iranian Air Force ran a program of aerial espionage from air bases in Iran. The purpose of this operation was to probe the Soviet air defences on its frontier with Persia and determine if any holes existed in their radar coverage -- which could be used in the future, be it for further covert action, or to take advantage of in the case of a war with the USSR.

Imperial Iranian Air Force F-4 (ejection-history.org.uk)

The Americans even devised a plan whereby they would get Iranian pilots to fly the jets during the reconnaissance missions with their American instructor remaining in the backseat, so if they were forced to land or eject due to detection and interception by Soviet forces they could claim that they had simply gotten lost during a training exercise.

Indeed, there was notable confrontation during one of these operations that saw to a Soviet MiG-21 purposely ramming (after its missiles and guns failed to function) an RF-4C -- killing its Soviet pilot in the process -- in order to down it. The two crew-members of the RF-4C, an Iranian Air Force Major and 'backseater' United States Air Force Colonel survived and were detained for 16 days by Soviet authorities.

These projects are well worth reading into as they are strikingly similar to the circumstances surrounding the downing of that Turkish reconnaissance RF-4E. It may in fact soon become evident that the Turkish Air Force was conducting a strikingly similar mission against their southern neighbour when their RF-4E was shot down. 

Iran Nuclear Program Discussed in Istanbul

A meeting of technical experts from Iran, the EU and the six major powers, which started on Tuesday in Istanbul, ended early in the morning on Wednesday. The participants reportedly explored positions on a number of technical subjects regarding Iran’s nuclear program. Russia said some progress were made during the talks. The meeting was aimed to prepare the groundwork for a meeting of senior nuclear negotiators. No dates were set for the next round of negotiations.

Apple(s) and Oranges of Iran sanctions

I'm sure, by now, many of you have heard the story of the Apple employee who stopped the sale of an iPad to a Farsi(persian) speaking customer as a way of helping enforce the US sanctions against Iran. To read more about this story you can go to http://usnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/06/22/12344611-iran-trade-sanctions-get-personal-in-apple-stores?lite

I assume that that particular employee was not working for US customs on the side, and acted to stop that particular sale based on the customer's outward profile, and based on Apple's own policies. What's amazing is that none of the store managers saw fit to step in to resolve this issue on the spot, as the suspiciously Farsi speaking customer was clearly making a not so suspicious personal purchase of one iPad, and not placing a large order for the Iranian government. I also assume that the Farsi speaking customer left the hostile store, walked into another Apple store and got her IPad, making sure she spoke English only this time around.

I know i know, things look innocent at first, but the next thing you know, we end up dealing with a nightmare scenario, like Khamenei's office gaining access to the top secret iPad technology. I should have said this earlier, but for those of you who believe the Iranian regime's only means of obtaining IPads is to ask Iranian-Americans to go to Apple stores disguised as Farsi speaking secret agents, this piece is not for you.

I think Apple is confusing apples with oranges on the Iranian sanctions issue by even entertaining the notion that this incident is a legitimate application of the sanctions law. Granted, if they want to be technical about it then they maybe, just maybe, within their legal rights to discriminate against Farsi speaking consumers under the guise of enforcing the sanctions.

Apple should consider the ramifications of applying this customer profiling method to the diverse pool of Apple customers. Some Apple employees might one day see fit to restrict sales to Hispanics in Florida because their purchases my end up in Cuba (also under sanctions). The same restriction might be applied to Koreans, assuming apple employees are as linguistically adapt at identifying the North Korean dialect as they are with middle-eastern languages.

I hate to use logic alone to make the argument against Apple on this issue, as it makes me sound like an Iranian nuclear negotiator; so lets look at some practical problems with Apple taking on the task of enforcing the Iranian sanctions at the retail level: First and foremost, Apple is no position to monitor, at the retail level, US sanctions against Iran, or any other country, even if it's young employees and policy makers aspire to do so. This would be analogous to an Apple security guard aspiring to collect forensic evidence to help police solve crimes occurring at the mall. I'm sure there is a policy for Apple security guards to cooperate with police in fighting crimes, but just like in the case of sanction monitoring, such actions would be an obvious stretch of company policies.

As it is, US sanctions against Iran are being monitored by numerous government agencies who posses much more expertise in these matters than Apple employees; they include the commerce department, US customs, and justice department, to name a few. I could be wrong, but the US government has no mandate for Apple to involve their employees in the monitoring of individual retail store customers for sanction violations. Even if Apple were to use their new sophisticated profiling methods based on the use of foreign languages to identify Iranian Farsi speaking spies seeking to acquire advanced Apple technology. This outlandish liberal approach should even apply to the sale of the Apple iPad, which as we all know, is desperately needed at the Fordo uranium enrichment plant, but that's beside the point. 

Apple must by now know that the US government has always maintained that the sanction are directed against the regime and not the people of Iran, so it's hard to understand how Apple feels compelled to monitor personal purchases of Farsi speaking customers. Apple needs to recognize that it's recent action amount to open discrimination against Iranian-American customers. It is probably permissible for Apple to deny shipment of any prohibited items to Iran and/or when there are business, or large personal, purchases made through entities linked to the Iranian government. In any case, it shouldn't take a nuclear scientist, I mean rocket scientist, to distinguish the legitimate restrictions on technology sales to Iran from this type of, vigilante style, use of the sanctions law as a cover to control what individual Americans can or can not buy at Apple stores (that's the libertarian in me speaking).

Maybe I should stop here as I happen to be an Iranian-American, and sometimes I do speak to myself in Farsi at the Apple store. I even have a business account with Apple, so I feel especially lucky to have escaped the scrutiny of Apple employees, with their new found power to restrict my purchases. 

Luckily, even if Apple executives and some Apple employees have a hard time distinguishing real sanction violations from personal purchases, our system of checks and balances doesn't, and so Apple should be looking for the courts to eventually compel them to do the right thing. Unless, of course, they come to their senses, stop hiding behind the wording of the sanction policies, issue an apology, and train their young employees to stick to what they're good at and stop infringing on individual customers' rights.

After all, this is the United States of America, not the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Ps. Happy fourth!

Great Prophet 7 Maneuvers (1)

Shahab-3 medium-range ballistic missiles prepped for launch

Shahab-3 MRBM aboard a transport erector launcher

Shahab-3 ("Meteor-3") MRMB launch

Jubilant IRGC-ASF missile crewmen react to Shahab-3 launch

Shahab short-range ballistic missile launch

Fateh-110 series short-range ballistic missile launch

Fateh-110 seties SRBMs aboard their mobile launcher vehicles

Fateh ("Conqueror") type SRBM in flight

IRGC-AF operated SU-25K and SU-25UBK close air support aircraft

IRGC-AF operated Embraer T-27 Tucano (EMB-312) light attack aircraft

Video


Video: Press TV 


Photos:
Hamed Jafarnejad and Hassan Mousavi at Fars News Agency
Mehr News Agency
Islamic Republic News Agency

U.S. Deploys Military Reinforcements into Persian Gulf – The Times

The New York Times reported today that the U.S. has deployed significant military reinforcements into the Persian Gulf to deter the Iranian military from any possible attempt to shut the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. military has also deployed stealthy fighter jets capable of striking deep into Iran, the Times reported.

The reinforcement ships designed to vastly enhance the U.S. Navy’s ability to patrol the Strait of Hormuz — and to reopen the narrow waterway should Iran attempt to mine it, the report says.

“The message to Iran is, ‘Don’t even think about it,’ ” one senior Defense Department official said. “Don’t even think about closing the strait. We’ll clear the mines. Don’t even think about sending your fast boats out to harass our vessels or commercial shipping. We’ll put them on the bottom of the gulf.” (The New York Times, 3 July)

The U.S. has also deployed the stealthy F-22s. These fighter jets, along with F-15Cs also deployed, will give the military the capability of attacking coastal missile batteries that could threaten shipping, as well as the reach to strike targets deep inside Iran.

And the Navy has moved a converted amphibious transport and docking ship, the Ponce, into the Persian Gulf to serve as a logistics and operations hub and as a base for Special Operations forces.

Senator John Kerry, the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee who frequently acts as personal envoy of President Obama to the region, said that the administration must strike a fine balance between positioning enough forces to deter Iran, but not inadvertently indicate to Iran or Israel that an attack on Iran’s nuclear sites is imminent or inevitable, The Times reported.

Photo Credit: The Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf beyond it, as seen from the International Space Station in 2003. Iran is to the right. NASA/AP/New York Times.

IRGC Exercises, Hints of Hormuz Closure Raise Oil Prices

IRGC has launched three-day drills to test its long-range missiles. The move is seen as a defiant response to EU embargo of Iranian oil, which went into effect on Sunday. The US also began to impose tough new sanctions on Iran’s oil industry last week. The new sanctions are designed to inflict economic hardship on the country, forcing its leaders to limit their nuclear program.

Meanwhile, in another sign of defiance at international pressures, the national security committee of Majlis drafted a bill to close the Strait of Hormuz to all tankers carrying oil to EU countries. If this latest move was a posturing to jack up oil prices, it succeeded and the Brent crude approached the $100 mark on Monday. 

Majlis Drafts Bill to Block EU-Bound Oil Tankers

The National Security and Foreign Policy Committee of the Iranian Majlis drafted a bill today calling on the government to stop oil tankers from shipping crude through the Strait of Hormuz to countries that support sanctions against Iran.

"There is a bill prepared in the National Security Committee (of Majlis) that requires the blocking of oil tanker traffic carrying oil to countries that have sanctioned Iran," Iranian MP and committee member Ebrahim Agha-Mohammadi said. "This bill has been developed as an answer to the European Union's oil sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran." (IRNA, 2 July)

Agha-Mohammadi added that 100 of Tehran's 290 members of parliament had signed the bill as of Sunday, the day EU’s embargo on imports of Iranian oil began. 

Iran Oil Production Loss Brings Down OPEC Numbers

OPEC oil production fell for the second month in a row in June, largely due to a fall in output in Iran, said a report by the Wall Street Journal based on the latest Dow Jones Newswires survey.

The largest drop in production in June was 150,000 barrels a day from Iran, where the production has fallen by 700,000 barrels a day since January.

“June and July will be the worst months for Iranian oil production,” said Samuel Ciszuk, an analyst at consultancy KBC Energy Economics. "Many clients who were continuing to buy Iranian crude stopped doing it (ahead of the July 1 deadline,)” he said.

Mr. Ciszuk added that the total loss of production loss in Iran could hit 1 million barrels a day by October.

The Colonel – By Mahmoud Dowlatabadi

The Colonel, a new novel by master of Iranian letters Mahmoud Dowlatabadi is published in the US by Melville House. Ten years in the writing, the novel tells the stirring story of a tortured people forced to live under successive oppressive regimes, and it’s banned in Iran.

As an introduction to Dowlatabadi, the New York Times says:

After being arrested in 1974 by the Savak, the shah’s secret police, the Iranian writer Mahmoud Dowlatabadi asked his interrogators just what crime he had committed. “None,” he recalled them responding, “but everyone we arrest seems to have copies of your novels, so that makes you provocative to revolutionaries.” (The New York Times, 2 July)

And those now in power continue to regard him and his work as subversive.

THE COLONEL

A NOVEL

MAHMOUD DOWLATABADI

TRANSLATED BY TOM PATTERDALE

Melville House

http://mhpbooks.com/books/the-colonel/

Photo Credit: Mahmoud Dowlatabadi. Chester Higiins Jr./New York Times

Iran Central Bank Says It Has Plans to Confront Sanctions

Iran Vice President Calls for Resilience 

The Iranian officials today assured the nation that they have stored up enough hard currency to outlast the EU oil embargo and insurance ban that went into effect today.

"We have not remained passive. To confront the sanctions, we have plans in progress," said Central Bank of Iran (CBI) Governor Mahmoud Bahmani. (Mehr News Agency)

Meanwhile, Iran’s vice president also asked people for resilience in the “battle” against sanctions.

"Today, we are facing the heaviest of sanctions and we ask people to help officials in this battle," said First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi.

He also said that the “dastardly sanctions” might cause “confusion” in the market, but added that the nation will not stop its progress. (IRIB/AP translation, 1 July)

New Sanctions Go Into Effect – Is Iran Running Out of Options?

By Nader Uskowi

Effective today, the European Union has put in place a complete embargo of crude oil imports from Iran. The EU imported 20 percent of Iran’s total oil exports, or about 450,000 bpd. The EU also has banned its insurance companies to cover tankers that carry Iranian crude oil or petrochemical products.

Three days ago, foreign countries had to cut their oil imports from Iran by at least 20 percent every six months to receive temporary waivers from new U.S. sanctions that target banks for processing oil payments through the Central Bank of Iran. The U.S. reported on Thursday that 20 countries, including China, have complied.

Between the insurance ban and the 20 percent reduction in oil imports, it is estimated that Iran would lose some 550,000 bpd in oil sales. Added to EU embargo, the total loss in Iran’s oil exports come to approximately 1 million barrels a day.

In 2011, Iran exported some 2.2 million bpd with revenues of about $80 billion. The loss of 1 million bpd, or 45 percent of the country’s total exports would mean a loss of $40 billion a year. The falling oil prices could make matters worse, resulting in a net loss of more than $45 billion a year. For Iran, that’s huge.

The theory behind these new rounds of sanctions by the US and the EU is that Iran will change its behavior and will limit its nuclear program, because these sanctions are targeting oil, the lifeline of its economy, and are isolating its financial systems globally. Losses Iran cannot absorb for long.

So far the Iranians have not done anything to prove the theory! They will be selling oil, albeit at half the volume, but that’s still some $40 billion in revenues a year. The country also enjoys high foreign currency reserves, officially at $150 billion. The Iranian counter-theory is if they can survive long enough, the West, needing Iranian oil, will eventually give up and the sanctions regime will collapse.

But what if their theory proves wrong and the West could show a staying power beyond Iran's expectations. That question is also asked in Tehran and there are indications that the Iranians have taken these new rounds of sanctions seriously: they have participated in three rounds of talks with the major powers in the past three months, complaining loudly these days that the West is not taking the negotiations seriously, and finally requesting a meeting of technical experts that is now scheduled for next Tuesday.

Of course a peaceful settlement of the standoff between Iran and the West requires compromise on both sides. Iran has already proven to the world that it can enrich uranium at any level of purity and it is probably high time to work out a swap deal with the West on higher purity nuclear fuel. For a country that has repeatedly said it has no intentions to build the bomb, that’s really not a loss. But the continuation of the current situation is really a loss: the national currency on a free fall, the inflation getting out of control, the oil revenues cut in half with more to come, and the banking system becoming isolated globally.

Iran can in return demand a recognition of its rights to peaceful nuclear program, including the enrichment of uranium below the 5 percent threshold, and the lifting of sanctions. Those are real gains. Iran should take them and get back to normalcy. The country is running out of options.