Mir Hossein Mousavi
Iran’s opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi, in his first statement after the Ashura anti-government protests, called on the government to recognize the gravity of the crisis in the country as a first step to find solutions out of the current impasse. In his statement, Mousavi offers solutions to end the impasse:
- Release of all movement supporters arrested after the June presidential election
- End of the bloody crackdown, violence and killings waged against the opposition
- Enactment of transparent electoral laws
- Recognition of freedom of press and expression
- Recognition of people’s right to assemble
Mousavi chided extremists for calling for the arrest and execution of opposition leaders.
“I am not afraid to sacrifice my life in support of people’s aspirations and demands… [But] arresting Mousavi and Karubi will not calm the situation,” Mousavi said.
Mousavi’s statement was published today in Tehran.
I think the government will just see this as Mousavi giving demands rather than as a solution!
If you examine Mousavi's demands, you do not find a call for Ahmadinejad's resignation or a new round of presidential election, the centerpiece of the demands after the 12 June election. He is really offering a comprise here. The government would make a big mistake not to seize the moment and bring about a solution to the current impasse.
Releasing political prisoners, enacting transparent electoral laws to future elections and reopening of the media closed in these seven months are very sensible, and will not jeopardize the government. These are not radical demands.
Only the extremism of the advisors surrounding Khamenei can prevent a solution.
moussavi has gone in the back history of iran as same bani sadr the secound president of iran in 1980 the reason he can not succeed base of his prencipal of election he was wrong and still did not admiteded to people the last strategy in the day of ashora maid wrong move that finished him up people of iran give full plaged to government to kill him as againest god well so they could as any time require to done with him secound senario is those young people will be comming on the street for more protest againest government they would have punishement in high level i believe those young man and female over age 18 plus if they did not served in army immediatly face court and the judges will deppend of the level of his or her crime if is basic will be served army or irgc for 2 years secound those had been served before will be face basij base on term 6 month to 2 years from agricaltural to training level in that way they do not spend termandce amount of money to keep them in the jail also they would be active in deferend feild to be productive and they will be understand what government doing to help people.
it is just about time for both sides to reconcile, sit and start a two-way dialogue, this is the only way to resolves the situtation.
He is beginning to recognize the presence of the silent majority.
Yes, this is the silent majority:
This is a master stroke by Mousavi, by making minimal and extremely obvious and lawful demands (which he ephasizes are subject to modification) he seeks to avoid violence.
Yet, the regime is incapable of delivering any of these, as it is lost in its own rhetoric and resides in a parallel universe. In addition, it cannot afford to jeopardize its business interests. An audit of state finances is an inevitable result of demand number 1 which calls for an "answerable" government.
The regime is essentially and existentially incapable of accepting these demands.
So, in effect, Mousavi is handing the regime enough rope to hang itself.
The most important issue is missing
Musavi has to admit his defeat in the last president election.
Withhout this admission, there is no reconcilation
I tend to agree with Anon 12:56 that Mousavi's statement is indeed masterful. His demands are very reasonable and all within the current laws of the land. I also agree that the government will have a tough time to agree with the demands, especially freeing the detainees. But I am not sure if the government would not finally accept the compromise. The alternative is a real showdown with the opposition, too risky. It can loose it all if the confrontation does not go as planned.
There is no "silent majority." With all the free bus and metro rides and taking state factory workers and bringing villagers from the outskirts of Tehran for a day out with free meals, and wall-to-wall media encouragement, here is what the regime managed:
At most maybe 20-30,000 people, in a city of some 10 million.
For those who are interested, the video clips of people being bussed in from out of town are available on YouTube.
About 3 weeks ago the regime promised a gathering of its Basij supporters in Tehran's Azadi soccer stadium (capacity 100,000). It soon became clear that they could not even manage that and the plan was quietly dropped.
Instead of looking for the imaginary "silent majority," we should recognize the very noisy majority, who consider Ahmadinejad's government illegitimate.
I, too, was a little surprised by the minimal reportage on Basij week in Iran's news media.
That said, a figure of 20-30,000 supporters isn't necessarily a sign of non-majority status. Opposition supporters, no matter what their percentage, usually tend to be more strident, more vocal and more readily mobilized. If anything, the numbers of pro-government demonstrators were rather high for a cause representing the status quo.
It is beyond dispute that Iran is politically divided. And the pre-election and post election polls reflect a majority in support of the government. Even if there's been a shift in favor of the opposition, it's improbable that shift has crossed past 50%. My guess is it now stands somewhere between 25-33%, and the portion that's actually radicalized slimmer still. Indirect proof of this is the undeniable fact that, to date, the opposition has utterly failed to produce any form of effective strike. They've simply gotten by with hijacking national events for purposes of protest.
Personally, I see Mousavi as a cheerleader figure, rather than a leader in the true sense of the word. His "solutions" are not much more than an effort at providing a semblance of political relevance, as well as staking out a moral position with which to qualify himself against his now many powerful detractors in Iran's government, military and security apparatus- especially in the wake of the Tehran's Ashura riots.
Mark 12:58 AM
The numbers are important, at least for the regime. Just listen to their hyperbolic claims; Mullah Alamulhuda, who spoke at the regime-orchestrated rally on December 30 (during which he called for dissidents to be killed) claimed today that 2.5 million people had turned up to hear him.
On the same day, the regime's Interior Minister Mostafa Mohammad-Najjar claimed that no less than 3.5 million had in fact turned up!
All this while technical analysis of the turnout shows something around 20-30,000.
This is pathetic for the regime after all its effort for a big turnout to relieve its crisis of legitimacy. For years after the revolution, huge numbers of pro-government supporters used to turn up for national and revolutionary days. Yet, now this is what the best the regime can manage to show some level of legitimacy.
As for the protesters, they do not "hijack" national events, as you have put it. One does not hijack what one rightfully owns and all the people want is to have their country back. Do you have any particular objection to that?
Regarding your reference to opinion polls, these are in fact illegal in Iran and Abbas Abdi spent some time in prison for conducting them.
Of course, the Intelligence Ministry does conduct surveys but they are secret, and that is why Ahmadinejad knew he was going to lose, and hence the cheating and the coup d’état and the present de facto martial law (which is in fact illegal under Iran's constitution).
If you are referring to the mysterious telephone survey conducted by World Public Opinion poll, it was highly flawed. To start with, how many Iranians are going to express anti-regime sentiments to an anonymous caller?
As for the general strike, well, watch this space!
Amazing as always
Post a Comment