Naval Commander Confirms Launch of New Boats

Iranian Navy Commander Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari confirmed this morning the launch of two new missile boats, Kalat (Fortress) and Derafsh (Flag) as well as a Ghadir-class light submarine on Thursday 27 November (Iran’s Navy Day.)

In an exclusive interview with Iran’s official news agency IRNA, RDML Sayyari also challenged assertions by NATO’s naval commander that Iranian threats to close the Strait of Hormuz were a “fantasy.” Vice Admiral Maurizio Gemignani had made the remark during his visit to Kuwait on 4 November.

“We can close Hormuz. You don’t believe it, bring it on!” Sayyari said in response to Gemignani [IRNA, 29 November].

The missile boats and the Ghadir-class sub were manufactured by Iran Navy and Defense Industry Organization. Iranian Navy will hold military exercises in the Sea of Oman earlier next month (5-20 December). The upcoming exercises are codenamed Ettehad-87 [Unity-08].

Potential effects of US lifting its Iran sanctions

A new report highlighted by the National Foreign Trade Council explores the impact of lifting US Iran sanctions on the global economy, trade and the price of oil. An excerpt:

If the United States lifted sanctions on Iran and the nation liberalized its economic regime, the world price of oil could fall by 10 percent and Iran’s gross domestic product (GDP) could increase by 23 percent annually, according to a new paper developed by economists Dean DeRosa and Gary Hufbauer. The paper, Normalization of Economic Relations: Consequences for Iran’s Economy and the United States, was commissioned by USA*Engage, and explores the effects of lifting U.S. sanctions on Iran and how such a shift in policy could impact the world economy, the U.S. and Iranian economies, U.S. multinational corporations, the international oil-and-gas sector, and the price of oil.

The report can be accessed here.

5,000 Centrifuges; Going 50,000

Director of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization Qolam Reza Aghazadeh was quoted by Iranian media as saying Iran has “5,000 working uranium enrichment centrifuges.”

Aghazadeh also talked of expanding the number of centrifuges to 50,000 within the next five years.

Iran Lunches Space Missile - Updated

Iran launched Kavosh 2 [Explorer 2] rocket, the second domestically-built rocket to be launched into space. The rocket landed within 40 minutes using a parachute.

IRIB said the rocket was launched to register and send back environmental data and to test separation of the engine from the body.

The flight path reported in the media indicates that the rocket rode into suborbit, and came back to earth within 40 minutes, more in line with an intercontinental ballistic missile than a space rocket.

Update: Video of Kavosh 2 Launch:

Iranian Weapons for Lebanon

Hezbollah-controlled TV Network Al Manar reported that Iran and Lebanon have signed a historic military agreement during Lebanese President Michel Suleiman’s visit to Tehran. Iran’s Press TV noted the visit may cause “unease and tension” in Lebanon in light of the recent US-Lebanese defense agreement and anti-Iranian sentiment present in the Republic.

Iranian Defense Minister Brigadier Gen. Mostafa Mohammad Najjar and President Suleiman signed the agreement, which would provide “heavy weaponry and military bases with anti-ballistic missiles,” both needed to improve the capabilities of the Lebanese army [Al Manar; 26 November].

President Michel Suleiman, in a meeting with Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was quoted as thanking the Islamic Republic for “its support during the July 2006 war.” Khamenei stressed on the need for a “united Lebanese front to fight the Zionist enemy.”

If Al Manar report on signing of the agreement is correct, it comes on the heels of the US military agreement with Lebanon. The agreement with Iran cab be greeted as a step toward bolstering the defensive capabilities of the Lebanese army, to face the much stronger Israeli army. Analysts pointed out that the US military aid to Lebanon pales in comparison to the quantity, level and type of weaponry Lebanon would get from Iran.

Basij hold civil defense drills

From Gulfnews:

An Iranian militia held civil defence drills on Sunday to prepare for any hostile air strikes[.]

The exercises organised by student members of the Basij militia were held at hundreds of schools across the country and involved transporting wounded people and putting out fires after a fictitious bombardment by enemy planes.

State television showed pictures of ambulances with sirens wailing rushing to the scene of a simulated attack and people lying on the ground with bloodied faces.

Officials also reiterated that Iran was ready to close down the Strait of Hormuz, a sea route at the mouth of the Gulf through which 40 per cent of the world's traded oil passes, if the United States attacked.

Lebanon's President seeks defense cooperation with Iran

From Mehr News:

Lebanese President Michael Suleiman on Tuesday expressed his country’s interest in bolstering defense cooperation between Beirut and Tehran.

In a meeting with Iranian Defense Minister Brigadier General Mostafa Mohammad Najjar at the Defense Ministry’s permanent defense fair in Tehran, Suleiman, a former Army chief, insisted on the need to strengthen the Lebanese Army’s defense power in countering terrorism and likely foreign invasions.

Iran’s defense minister said, “The Islamic Republic of Iran is ready to expand and deepen defense cooperation between the two countries to improve Lebanon’s security and to increase Lebanon’s national and defense capabilities.”

Najjar described the Lebanese people’s courageous endeavor during their 33-day war with Israel in 2006 as the symbol of “perseverance and resistance” against Israel in the Muslim world.

The Lebanese leader also told Najjar that “Iran and Lebanon have great affinity and share common stance on many regional and international issues.”

Jafari addresses the Basij

From Mehr News Agency:

Islamic Revolution Guards Corps Commander Major General Mohammad Ali Jafari on Tuesday emphasized that the enemies will never dare to invade Iran because of Basij forces.

“Even if the enemies surrounded the country, they would not dare to even utter a threat against Iran,” he told 50,000 Basij forces at a gathering in Khorasan Razavi Province.

“Today, despite the plots, the Islamic Republic of Iran is the safest country in the region, and the enemies will never dare to invade this country.”

Jafari added that the Basij has also become a model for other countries.

“The resistance and perseverance which the Basij has taught the oppressed nations of the world has resulted in repeated defeats of the West.”

Pointing to the historical decree of Imam Khomeini for the establishment of the Basij force, the IRGC commander said the Basij forces have guaranteed the success of the Islamic Revolution.

Jafari also praised the Basij forces for their sacrifices during the Sacred Defense (the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq war).

It is not clear what the outcome of the war would have been if the Basij force had not fought side by side with the Armed Forces, he added.

Naval war game in December

From Fars News Agency:

Iran's Navy Force commander Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari said Sunday that Iran would hold a war game early December in the Sea of Oman, the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormoz.

The forthcoming war game is dubbed "Unity 87," Sayyari said, adding that "All the movements of the enemy in Oman Sea, Persian Gulf and Hormoz Strait are under control and the enemy will never dare to enter Iran's waters."

He also said that on the occasion of the Iranian navy day on Nov. 27, Iranian Navy Force would be added by a light submarine named "Ghadir," and two small warships named as "Kalat (fortress in Farsi) and Derafsh (banner in Farsi) which are capable of launching rockets."

Meantime, another Iranian Navy commander Rear Admiral Hossein Ashrafi Sunday told a press conference that "the Navy forces are present in the region in the most powerful manner to defend the country's sea borders."

Iran's Basij (voluntary forces) Commander Hojatoleslam Hossein Ta'eb also said Wednesday that Iran would enhance its navy might three times if there is a necessity.

Iran upgraded the naval base in Assalouyeh, a Persian Gulf port in southern Iranian Booshehr province.

Regarding the naval additions, it has been suggested that they include commisioning of a Sina, a modified IPS-16, and one submarine of the Ghadir class. (H/T to Planeman @ IMF)

Iran: Political Benefits of War

Amid growing concerns over an Israeli military strike on Iran, The Iranian government is threatening retaliatory strikes against Israel. President Ahmadinejad and his administration are using the renewed talks of war as their best hope to ride out the country’s worsening economic crisis and win a second term during the upcoming presidential elections, scheduled for June 2009.

On Israeli strike, Haaritz and Jerusalem Post are reporting today that Israel’s National Security Council has recommended making contingency plans to attack Iran. The recommendation was part of INSC’s annual situation assessment report.

The document, predicting a possible rapprochement between Iran and the incoming Obama administration, warns if Iran’s nuclear facilities are not attacked in the next two months, Israel may find itself facing a nuclear Iran virtually alone.

The Iranians were quick to respond with their own threats to retaliate against Israel. Fars News Agency quoted Brig. Gen. Mohammad Hejazi, IRGC Chief of Staff, as saying that Iran had drawn plans to “take retaliatory measures” against aggressors.

The talks of war are being broadcast against a background of a growing economic crisis in Iran. The dwindling oil revenues and the on-going economic sanctions has not made the last months of Ahmadinejad’s presidency easy for him and for the country. On Thursday, Tehran daily Aftab Yazd summed up the challenges facing the government in the oil sector, Iran’s premier industry.

“The breakdown of the Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) Pipeline agreement, constant drop in oil prices, policy differences with Qatar over export of gas [from shared fields], suspension of Crescent contract to export of gas to UAE, elimination from the new Baku pipeline, backing-off of Qatar and Russia from the proposed gas consortium, non-conclusive negotiations with Turkmenistan over price of imported gas, inability to gauge average price per barrel of oil for the next budget, shortfall in the budget for import of gasoline, problems with providing adequate fuel for power generation, pull-out from petroleum projects by large multinationals, increased cost of all energy sources are part of the economic woes facing Iran, which is heavily dependent on its oil exports.”

The rapid rise in inflation and unemployment completes the picture. The possibility of war with Israel is being used by Ahmadinejad to solidify its relations with the armed forces and to rally the public behind the government. On 10 November, the administration formed a new “joint workgoup” with the armed forces, strengthening IRGC and Basij support of Ahmadinejad’s reelection campaign. The two powerful groups were instrumental in Ahmadinejad’s election in 2005. He is hoping for déjà vu.

Iran, Seven Faces of Civilization

Also available here in one part via google video.

H/T to Professor Juan Cole @ Informed Comment

Iranian Commander’s remarks at Week of Basij

From Fars News Agency:

The Bush administration has created the required infrastructure for attacking Iran and delivered his war plan to Obama, a senior Iranian military official said Saturday, adding that Obama's election has provided Iran with a one-year opportunity to increase preparedness.

Addressing a meeting to mark the start of the Week of Basij (mobilization of volunteer forces), lieutenant commander of the General Staff of Iran's Armed Forces Major General Gholam-Ali Rasheed said that US President George Bush has established the infrastructures required in the region for posing a threat to Iran.

"The United States' threats have now found a structural form. They have done the planning for reaching the necessary preparedness to wage a war (against Iran) through setting up military bases, holding (security) pacts, etc.," he said.

The General viewed "northwestern and southeastern Iran as well as the southwestern province of Khuzestan as vulnerable points" the US forces are likely to use if they want to invade Iran, and underlined that the aforementioned areas should become invulnerable within the next one year.

He further urged military officials to leave war rhetoric and expression of foreign policy views to politicians and "accelerate measures to boost Iran's deterrent power".

Considering that the country is now under threat, he said, we should consider measures to prevent entering the stage of actual war.

The General's suggestions, that military leaders should leave war rhetoric and expression of foreign policy views to politicians and that measures to prevent actual war should be adopted, are noteworthy. Also interesting is that they were carried by Fars News Agency.

Additional comments by General Rashid were published by PressTV:

"It is utterly simplistic to believe that changing a US administration would transform Washington's ways and means toward the Islamic Republic," said the deputy chairman of Iran's Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gholam-Ali Rashid, on Saturday.

The senior Iranian commander said that Washington has vocally advocated 'regime change' in the Islamic Republic and has gone to great lengths to topple the Iranian government.

Major General Rashid said after the September 11 terrorist attacks on the US, Washington plotted against Middle Eastern nations and planned a velvet revolution in Iran.

"In the past five years, the US has stepped up efforts to target the Iranian government by threats of military attacks or velvet revolutions," said Rashid.

According to the Iranian commander, Washington's Middle East strategies lie in tatters and it is likely for the new US administration to renew its military threats against Tehran.

General Rasheed is obviously skeptical that the new US administrations will bring about a change in US-Iran relations. Expectations from the Iranian military seem to be a change in tactics with the new US President, but with the same end game as previous administrations: regime change in Tehran. That is to say, they are not expecting a security guarantee from the Obama administration.

Reading List - November 20, 2008 - Updated

-Israeli Air Force chief: We are ready to deal with Iran
Jerusalem Post

-Iran Said to Have Nuclear Fuel for One Weapon
By William J. Broad and David E. Sanger
New York Times

-Hezbollah Marshals the Young via Scout Troops
By Robert F. Worth
New York Times

-Moving ‘em Out to Move Them Up
By Geoffrey Forden
Arms Control Wonk

-Clustering Engines, Adding Up the Weights
By Geoffrey Forden
Arms Control Wonk

Updated:
-Sejil Reconsidered
By Geoffrey Forden
Arms Control Wonk

Basij naval reserves in time of war

From PressTV:

Iran has the capacity to triple its forces in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz in times of war, says a senior Basij official.

"Once a threat is perceived, naval forces of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) can instantaneously triple their presence (along the country's southern shores)," Hojjatoleslam Hossein Taeb, the commander of the Basij Resistance Force, told IRNA on Wednesday.

Basij, a volunteer-based Iranian paramilitary force, assists the country's armed forces in times of crisis.

According to Taeb, Basij forces have taken measures accordingly so that its forces can immediately assist the IRGC whenever deemed necessary.

Iran has tasked the IRGC with providing security in the strategic Strait of Hormuz as well as defending the country's Persian Gulf coast.

Taeb's announcement comes at a time that Iranian armed forces are preparing to counter a potential new military conflict in the region.

Fourth Iranian naval base opened in Persian Gulf

From Fars News Agency:

The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) has upgraded a naval base on Iran's Persian Gulf coastline to improve its defensive capabilities.

It is the fourth in a string of IRGC bases along the waterway. IRGC was put in charge of defending Iran's Persian Gulf coast in September.

The new base is in the port of Assalouyeh in Iran's southern Bushehr province. It will control a 190-mile (300-kilometer) stretch of coastline west of the strait between Kish Island and the port of Dayyer.

IRGC's Navy Commander Rear Admiral Morteza Saffari said here [Tehran] on Monday that the US Navy Fifth Fleet and other foreign naval forces were operating near the Sarrallah naval base, which he said was near Assalouyeh on the Persian Gulf coast.

"Therefore, it was necessary to upgrade Sarrallah naval base ... to increase our military capability in case of any instability caused by foreigners in the Persian Gulf," Saffari.

The General also said that the naval base of Assalouyeh would undertake the upgraded "regional" missions in the naval region of "Sarrallah" in "Persian Gulf" to encounter the current threats.

"The naval force of IRGC is ready to face and repel any kind of threat in Persian Gulf," he said, "And their capabilities to confront any possible threat by enemies in the Persian Gulf are increasing day by day."

Iran recently started constructing new naval bases along the coasts of the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman for an impenetrable line of defense.

The new bases are supposed to extend from Bandar Abbas, a major Iranian seaport on the Strait of Hormuz, to Pasa Bandar near the Pakistan border, Iran's Navy Commander Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari said in October.

"The new mission of the navy is to establish an impenetrable line of defense at the entrance to the Sea of Oman," Sayyari said, adding that the new bases would be constructed rapidly.

ISIS Nuclear Site.

The Institute for Science and International Security has launched a new web site dedicated to Iran’s nuclear program. It can be accessed here. The site’s welcome message is as follows:

This [ISIS] website seeks to make available in a single location a broad array of information about Iran's nuclear program, from its history dating back to the 1960s, to the ongoing swirl of diplomatic activity aimed at halting its uranium enrichment activity, to commercial satellite imagery and ground photos of nuclear-related sites. The Nuclear Sites section provides information and, where available, images, about the many facilities that make up its nuclear program. From the Sky is an interactive tool we have developed using Google maps that allows users to see a broad, annotated overview of Iran's facilities. NuclearIran News offers brief analysis and commentary on recent developments. All ISIS reports on Iran's nuclear program are provided below under the Iran Reports tab. The Documents section contains links to every IAEA report on Iran since 2003, as well as United Nations Security Council resolutions and the texts of various diplomatic initiatives generated by Iran, the European Union and others. The FAQ section answers frequently asked questions about Iran's nuclear program and the nuclear fuel cycle. We invite readers to visit the Links section which lists many other websites and blogs dedicated to Iran and/or issues of nonproliferation.

H/T to Dr. Jeffrey Lewis @ ACW

Discussions on Iran's Missile Program

Geoffrey Forden at Arms Control Wonk has started a five part series into the details of Iran’s liquid-propellant missile development program. Part one, titled “Whats with the Goop?”, can be accessed here.

Additional commentary at ACW regarding the Sejil ballistic missile is available here and here.

Iran converts reserves to gold

From International Herald Tribune:

Iranian newspapers are quoting Mojtaba Hashemi Samareh, a top advisor to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, as saying the country has converted its financial reserves into gold.

The papers did not specify how much of Iran's estimated $120 billion in reserves would actually be converted into gold.

The daily Jahan-e-Eghtesad, or Economy World, quoted Samareh on Saturday as saying the decision to buy gold was carried out on Ahmadinejad's order.

The decision comes after a dramatic fall in oil prices. About 80 percent of Iran's foreign revenue comes from oil exports.

Another Look at the Sejil Launch (video)

The Sejil could be a development of the Ashoura. (Perhaps the Iranians are naming each developmental increment by a new name?) Photos and video of the Ashoura were not included for its launch on November 2007. Jeffrey Lewis at Arms Control Wonk cites sketches of the Ashoura available at MDA that appear roughly similar to the Sejil. Comparisons are also being made to the Pakistani Shaheen II missile.

According to Paul in the comments section at ACW: This missile is completely different from the Shahab variety and represents a significant advance on the part of Iran. A two stage solid fuel missile; distinctly different long and white smoke trail; much faster initial acceleration than Shahab-3; and what appears to be a gimbaled vernier engine for the second stage (same basic design for the Safir satellite launch vehicle). Range is probably more than 2,000 km, or perhaps the warhead weight is heavier than Shahab-3, bringing the range down to “only” 2,000 km.

Sejil Missile Launch - Video

Sejil Missile Launch

From Javno:

Iran said it test-fired a new generation of surface-to-surface missile on Wednesday and that the Islamic Republic was ready to defend itself against any attacker.

Iranian Defence Minister Mostafa Mohammad Najjar said the Iranian-made surface-to-surface Sejil missile had "extremely high capabilities" and was only intended for defensive purposes.

He said it had a range of close to 2,000 km (1,200 miles), almost as far as another Iranian missile, Shahab 3. That would enable it to reach Israel and U.S. bases in the Gulf.

"This missile test is in the framework of Iran's deterrent doctrine," the official IRNA news agency quoted him as saying.

"It will only land on the heads of those enemies ... who want to make an aggression and invade the Islamic Republic," said Najjar, who did not mention any country by name.

Iran's English-language Press TV said the Sejil missile had two stages and was of a type that used combined solid fuel.

Video of test launch available here via LiveLeak.