Iran-IAEA Reached Agreement on Probing Suspected Sites

The Agreement Will Be Signed Soon – IAEA Director

IAEA Director Yukiya Amano announced today that an agreement in principle has been reached with Iran on probing suspected work on nuclear weapons and the agreement will be signed soon. Details still need to be worked out, but the Iranians have assured Amano that those details will not stand in the way of signing the deal. Amano spoke to reporters today after returning from Tehran [AP, 22 May 2012].


UPDATE: The U.S. State Department said although the Amano agreement was a “step forward” but Iran would be judged on actions leading to tangible results.

“The announcement of the deal is one thing, but the implementation is what we’re going to be looking for,” said State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland. The U.S. wants “access to all of the locations, the documents and the personnel that the IAEA requires in order to determine whether Iran’s program is exclusively for peaceful purposes,” she added.

U.S. Senate Approves New Sanctions on Iran

The U.S. Senate today unanimously passed a bill that expands sanctions against Iran. The legislation will close loopholes and extend the existing sanctions on dealing with the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) and National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC).

Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu said today that Iran “threatens Israel and world peace.”

"In the face of malicious intent, world leaders must show determination, and not weakness," Netanyahu said. "They must not make concessions towards Iran. They should present clear and unequivocal requirements." [Arutz Sheva, 22 May].

Netanyahu said Iran must give IAEA inspectors full access to all its nuclear facilities, must cease all uranium enrichment activities, and send all uranium enriched to 20% out of the country.

No Sign of Breakthrough in Talks Between Amano and Iranian Officials

IAEA Director Yukiya Amano ended his one-day visit to Tehran without any sign of a breakthrough deal with the Iranians. Asked by reporters in Tehran about the expected framework agreement defining IAEA’s access to sites, nuclear officials and scientists and documents to see if Iran was developing the capability to make nuclear weapons, Amano could only say: "I will not go into details but the agency has some viewpoints and Iran has its own specific viewpoints." [Mehr News Agency, 21 May].

The answer was not convincing that a breakthrough in the talks had been achieved in Tehran. Now all the eyes will be on Wednesday’s talks between Iran and the six major powers in Baghdad. 

Amano in Tehran

IAEA Director Yukiya Amano arrived in Tehran today accompanied by Herman Nackaerts, the IAEA deputy director general for safeguards, and Rafael Mariano Grossi, the agency’s assistant director general for policy, and was welcomed at Tehran’s airport by Iran's Ambassador to the IAEA Ali Asghar Soltanieh. Mr. Amano has already held talks with the Director of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) Fereydoun Abbasi and Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili. He is also scheduled to meet with Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi before departing for Geneva.

No details of Amano’s talks with Iranian officials were available at this time, but analysts believe that Mr. Amano would not have made the previously unscheduled visit to Tehran if he did not believe that a framework agreement on IAEA expanded powers to inspect the country’s nuclear and relevant military sites could be achieved during his stay in the country. 

On Wednesday, the six major powers and Iran would resume their talks in Baghdad. For the West, the stated goal of the meeting is to start a verifiable process to halt any work on nuclear weapons in Iran. Today’s expected agreement between IAEA and Iran on free access of the agency’s inspectors to suspected military sites, namely Parchin, would go a long way to seal a deal in Baghdad.

Photo Credit: IAEA Director Yukiya Amano (center) meets Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili (r) with Iran's Ambassador to the IAEA Ali Asghar Soltanieh present. Tehran. 21 May 2012. IRNA 

Time to Strike a Deal on Iran Nuclear Program - ORG

Oxford Research Group (ORG), a UK think tank focusing on sustainable approaches to global security, today released a timely report on how the impasse over Iran’s nuclear program could be broken and a deal in the nuclear talks could be reached during the visit today to Tehran of IAEA director and at Baghdad Talks on Wednesday. (Please read the report by clicking here.)

ORG argues that the mood surrounding talks on Iranian program has shifted, becoming more amendable to compromise and a deal can be struck today in Tehran and on Wednesday in Baghdad. The understanding on both sides to the principle of reciprocity is reached and there are concrete steps to end the decade-old conflict that can be taken in Tehran and in Baghdad. 

Russia: West Still Considering Military Action Against Iran

Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told reporters on a plane on his way back from the G8 Summit in Camp David that the West was still considering military action against Iran over its nuclear program.

"It is one of many various signals coming from various sources that the military option is considered as realistic and possible," Ryabkov said. "We are receiving signals, both through public and intelligence channels, that this option is now being reviewed in some capitals as more applicable in this situation… We are very worried about this. We do not want the region and the world to fall into new divisions and bitter political arguments," he added [Reuters, 20 May].

Ryabbkov also said Russia had drafted a set of proposals, without going into details, for the Baghdad talks taking place on Wednesday between Iran and the six major powers. He said Iran needs to restore international confidence on the peaceful nature of its nuclear program and must be presented with incentives on cooperation as well.

"Practical results are needed that can be shown to the international community as evidence that we are moving forward," Ryabkov said.

Source: Reuters, 20 May 2012

IAEA Director Leaves for Tehran

Seeking Agreement Before Baghdad Talks

IAEA Director Youkiya Amano flies to Tehran today for talks with Iran’s foreign minister, chief nuclear negotiator and other senior leaders on Monday. IAEA is seeking to expand its current agreement with Iran to allow unscheduled visits to the sites suspected of being centers for nuclear weapon research and development, specially Parchin military cmplex. Reuters is reporting that Amano wants to seal the deal on Monday, two days prior to an all-important meeting the six world powers and Iran in Baghdad. Such agreement will significantly influence the direction of the upcoming talks, and could be a potential breakthrough in the decade-old dispute over Iran's nuclear program.

Referring to suspicions about the existence of a military dimension to the country’s nuclear program, Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi said on Saturday that Amano’s visit could help “clear up the ambiguities.”

"We regard the visit by the agency's director general as a gesture of goodwill," said Salehi, adding that he hoped for agreement on a "new modality" to work with IAEA to “clear up the ambiguities" [ISNA/Reuters].

Iranian Art Gallery Opens in Dubai

The Iranian art gallery RIRA opened in Dubai this week, the first gallery to focus on Iranian arts. Works by 27 Iranian artists, including those by Parviz Kalantari, pictured above, were being displayed. Also displayed, are the works by Fereydoun Ave, Safa Hosseini, Mehrdad Shoqi, Ali Shirazi, Aydin Aghdashlou, Farideh Lashai, Yaqoub Emdadian, Bahman Jalali and Melika Shafahi.

“The gallery focuses on Iranian art,” said RIRA Managing Director Maryam Moqadam. “The gallery is also planning to mount comparative exhibitions to showcase the artworks of the Iranian, Arab and Turk artists simultaneously” [Press TV, 20 May].

Obama: World Powers ‘Unified’ and ‘Hopeful’ About Talks with Iran

President Barack Obama said today world powers were “unified” and  “hopeful” about talks with Iran next Wednesday in Baghdad.

“We're unified when it comes to our approach with Iran,” Obama said, surrounded by G-8 leaders at Camp David [AFP, 19 May].

President Obama added Iran’s inability so far to convince the world its program was peaceful was “of grave concern to all of us.” He said, however, that the leaders were “hopeful” about the talks in Baghdad.

Photo Credit: President Obama and G-8 Leaders. Camp David. 19 May 2012. Reuters

P5+1 Forge Joint Approach to Talks with Iran

The five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany (P5+1) have reportedly agreed to offer a joint proposal to Iran at the Baghdad talks on 23 May. The proposal would open a path to curtail any military dimensions to Iran’s nuclear program and to ease the threat of war on Iran [LA Times, 18 May].


The six powers will offer to provide 20-percent enriched uranium fuel for Iran’s research nuclear reactor and in return Iran must halt the production of 20 percent fuel and operation at Fordo enrichment facility. Iran would also need to surrender its stockpile of the material.

The sanctions against Iran will be lifted if and when the country takes verifiable confidence building-steps and allow IAEA to rigorously inspect its nuclear facilities for any possible weaponization programs.

It is unlikely that Iranian representatives would accept the proposal with all its components during the Baghdad talks, needing the approval by the country’s supreme leader and the senior leadership. The joint proposal, however, ends speculations that there were major rifts within P5+1 positions on Iran.

US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton had said during an interview with UAS Today earlier this week that the group had indeed reached a "unified position.”

“[We have reached] unified position that sets forth what we would expect to see Iran do on what kind of timetable to reassure the international community that it is not and will not seek nuclear weapons," Clinton said. “[The support of Russia and China] is a significant statement that the rest of the world is placing on a peaceful resolution of this problem," Clinton added.

Source: LA Times, 18 May 2010

France and U.S. Share Views on Iran - Hollande

The newly elected French President Francois Hollande said today in Washington after talks with President Barack Obama that France and the US share views on Iranian nuclear program and that there was an agreement for ‘required firmness’ that Iran doesn’t get the nuclear military capacity [McClatchy, 18 May].

ITAR-TASS News Agency reported that the French President said he and Obama see ‘eye to eye’ on Iran.

"We see eye to eye on the Iranian issue. We might be able to start negotiations with Iran. However, for that there must be the certainty Teheran has no capability to make nuclear weapons," President Hollande said [ITAR-TASS, 18 May].

Later in the day, President Hollande met with British Prime Minister David Cameron at British Embassy in Washington and the two leaders stressed their agreement on a range of issues including Iran [ITV News, 18 May].

Hollande and Cameron were in Washington ahead of the G-8 Summit at Camp David this weekend.

Photo: Presidents Obama and Hollande at the White House. 18 May 2012. Abaca Press/MCT

IAEA Director to Visit Tehran

Rare and Unexpected Visit Days Before Baghdad Talks-
Raising Hopes for Resolution of Decade-Old Dispute

IAEA chief Yukiya Amano and top aides will travel to Tehran on Sunday on a rare and unexpected visit to the Iranian capital for talks with Iran's chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili and other senior officials, only a few days before the Baghdad talks between Iran and P5+1 on the future of Iranian nuclear program.

IAEA wants Iran to fully address concerns over possible military dimension to its nuclear program, a concern that will be at the heart of the talks in Baghdad on 23 May.

The last visit by an IAEA chief to Tehran was by Amano's predecessor, Mohamed ElBaradei, in October 2009. The IAEA and Iran held talks this week in Vienna and had been due to meet again on 21 May in the Austrian capital, but now the nuclear watchdog agency is sending its director to Tehran unexpectedly, raising hopes for a resolution to the decade-old dispute over Iran’s nuclear program.

US Exempts Japan, 10 EU Countries from Sanctions

India, China Exposed – India to Export Wheat for Oil

The US government has given the banks in Japan and 10 EU countries a six-month retrieve from financial sanctions for processing payments for Iranian crude imports through the Central bank of Iran (CBI). The exemptions were granted because those countries have significantly cut purchases of Iranian oil in the past few months.

The decision leaves China and India, Iran’s top oil customers, exposed to US sanctions. The full sanctions against the CBI goes into effect at the end of this month. Countries purchasing Iranian oil need to process their payment through the CBI. The sanctions against the CBI are designed to significantly cut Iran’s oil exports.

Meanwhile, India’s Economic Times reported today that India is considering exporting wheat to Iran, in essence bartering wheat for oil, so to avoid processing payments through the CBI. In this scheme, India will deposit payments for Iranian crude purchases in rupee bank accounts set up for Iran in New Delhi and Iran in turn use these rupee accounts to pay for wheat and other imports from India. The problem is that the value of Iranian oil exports to India far surpasses that of its imports, even with if the wheat agreement is finalized. India currently has huge stockpiles of grains after bumper harvests.

Majlis Approves New Budget

The Majlis, Iranian parliament, today approved the budget for the current Iranian calendar year at 5,666 trillion rials or $462 billion in official exchange rate. The new budget is 11 percent higher than last year’s if calculated in the local currency (5,084 trillion rials last year), but slightly lower if calculated in dollars ($469 billion last year). The difference is due to a 4-percent official devaluation of rial this year.

The percentage of the budgeted revenues from oil exports is not reported. But Iran’s total revenues from oil sales last year were at approximately $73 billion, with another $36 billion in non-oil exports, for a total of $109 billion in hard currency revenues. The figure is expected to be lower this year due to expanding oil-related sanctions. The details of non-export revenues budgeted for the current year were also not available. If the government were forced to print money to meet any budgetary shortfall, however, a rise in already high inflation rate could be expected.   

India Cuts Iran Oil Imports by 11%

India announced today it would cut Iranian oil imports by 11 percent. The cut would constitute a significant step for India toward securing a waiver from US sanctions before end-June deadline and came a week after US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton visited New Delhi. However, the Indian officials were quoted by Outlook India as saying that the reduction of imports from Iran was not under US pressure.

The US has already granted waiver to Japan and 10 European countries after they announced deeper cuts than what was announced by India and may not go far enough to prompt a waiver.

Meanwhile, India’s ministry of commerce and industry said today that a new rial-rupee payment arrangement has been put in place for Iran’s oil imports. No details were released [The Economic Times, 16 May].

Iran Calls Remarks by Saudi FM Interference in Internal Affairs

Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast said today in Tehran that recent remarks by Arab officials on the status of the three Persian Gulf islands were interference in Iran’s internal affairs. 

Discussing the summit with the reporters in Riyadh on Monday night, Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal said the GCC countries uphold the UAE’s claims to the islands of Abu Musa and Greater and Lesser Tunbs. He also accused Iran of threatening the Gulf Arab states.

“Raising or repeating any claim about the three Iranian islands is considered by the Islamic Republic of Iran as an uncalculated remark which…lacks political and legal authenticity since it is incompatible with the principle of non-interference in other countries’ internal affairs,” Mehmanparast said [IRNA/Press TV, 15 May]. 

Iran-IAEA Talks “Fruitful” –Will Resume on Monday

Possible Military Dimensions of Iran's Nuclear Program Is Primary Focus 

Iran and IAEA ended their second day of meetings today in Vienna and will resume talks on Monday, suggesting real progress is being achieved.

"We had a good exchange of views and we will meet again on Monday" IAEA’s Hermann Nackaerts and Iran’s Ali Asghar Soltanieh said in a joint statement at the end of today’s talks.

Soltanieh went further and told the reporters that the discussions were “fruitful,” taking place in a “very conductive environment.”

"We have made progress on this issue regarding preparing and negotiating the modality framework for resolving our outstanding issues," Soltanieh added. "

"During these two days we discussed a number of options to take the agency verification process forward in a structured way," Nackaerts told reporters. "The primary focus of our discussion was how to clarify issues related to possible military dimensions of Iran's nuclear program." [AFP, 15 May].

President Francois Hollande

The New Leader of France. 15 May 2012

A Look At 'Gulf Union'

The Power of Unity 

The leaders of the Arab states of the Persian Gulf yesterday failed in their first attempt to form an EU-type ‘Gulf Union’ (GU) and decided to postpone the decision to a later date. If the GU would ever become a reality, it would become a major global entity. Following are the numbers for a six-member Gulf Union:

The Six-Member GU: Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman and Bahrain.

• Population: 43.2 million
• GDP: $1.385 trillion
• Foreign Reserves: $1.442 trillion
• Oil Production: 16.3 million bpd
• Oil Exports: 12.8 million bpd
• Military Manpower: 362,000
• Military Budget (2012 estimate): $65 billion

Unlike the EU, the GU members would share common language, culture, religion and similar history. 

 Source: Amena Bakr/Reuters

GCC Countries Fail to Form ‘Gulf Union’ at Summit Today

Leaders Agreed to Further Study Plans for Union

The GCC leaders today failed in their attempt to form the much-publicized EU-type “Gulf Union” between Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and possibly Qatar and Kuwait. At the end of their summit in Riyadh, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal said the heads of states decided, however, to further study plans on how to organize the new entity.

“Leaders of the Gulf Co-operation Council have approved the call for a commission to continue studying in order to present final results,” Prince Saud told reporters in Riyadh. “The issue will take time. The aim is for all countries to join, not just two or three.” [BBC Arabic, 14 May].

The idea of forming a ‘Gulf Union’ was first proposed by the Saudi monarch last December. Yesterday, the Bahraini information minister told reporters that a union between Saudi Arabia and Bahrain and possibly a third country (believed to be Qatar) would be announced during the summit. Arab media, quoting unnamed Saudi officials, also reported that Qatar and Kuwait were likely to join Saudi Arabia and Bahrain in announcing the union, with UAE and Oman joining in at a later stage. Today’s non-announcement was indeed a major failure by the Saudis to move the unity project along, as they must have hoped.

Inflation Rate @ 22%

The Statistics Bureau of the Central Bank of Iran just announced that the country’s annual inflation rate for the 12-month period ending 20 April 2012 was at 21.8 percent [ISNA, 14 May].