Fateh-110/III SRBM delivered to IRGC/ASF

In a ceremony held today, Defense Minister Brig. Gen. Ahmad Vahidi marked the occasion of the first delivery of 3rd generation Fateh-110 (Fateh A-110B) short-range ballistic missiles to the IRGC Aerospace Force.

click photos to enlarge

Background: assembled Fateh-110/III SRBM

Three sections of the Fateh-110/III emerging

from their storage/transport receptacles

Left: guidance section showing internal detail

Foreground: guidance section showing externally

located missile prep inlets

Photos: VahidReza Alaei for Borna News Agency, Fars News Agency and JameJam.ir

The Iranian Ballistic Missile Hype

By Mark Pyruz

Lieutenant Colonel John D. Johnson, a U.S. Army Senior Fellow assigned to the George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies, has a paper published over at the Small Wars Journal blog, titled "The Iranian Ballistic Missile Threat And a “Phased, Adaptive Approach” to Missile Defense for Europe." Download it here.

There are many problems with this brief. Right off the bat, claiming Iran is a "Persian country" ignores the fact that the country possesses relatively large minority populations, such as Azaris, Turkomans, Kurds and even Arabs. Both Iran's Supreme Leader and Head of the Armed Forces General Command Headquarters are actually Azari, not Persian.

In addition, Iran's threat perception goes beyond the presence of Western militaries in Iraq and Afghanistan. It includes nuclear-armed USAF and USN forces based in Qatar and Bahrain, the use of which President Obama has stated could be used against Iran in a first-strike nuclear attack. And Iran's threat perception includes Israel's nuclear arms stockpiles, deliverable by its own MRBM forces. (Why is this not mentioned?)

Contrary to LTC Johnson's assertion the international community "has gone to great lengths to engage Iran diplomatically," the truth of the matter is that the goal posts for Iran's nuclear negotiations have constantly been shifted by their Western interlocutors. Consider the failure of the 2003 Paris Agreement, as well as the more recent 2010 Tehran Declaration, as just two major examples.

Nowhere in this brief are any credible scenarios provided for Iranian MRBM strikes against Greece, Romania, Bulgaria or Turkey. That's because the threat of such simply does not exist.

The notion that Iran could deploy an ICBM capable of striking the US by 2015 is pure fantasy. More than that, it defies logic. True, Iran is developing larger rockets. But nowhere in this brief is an explanation provided for Iran's need at self-sufficiency in hoisting satellites into space (they've been refused such by a number of commercial rocket-equipped countries). For Iran's defense, which is based on deterrence, the region itself is a target-rich environment. Potential retaliatory strikes are available in every direction. It is logical for Iran's military industrial complex to put resources into further developing its SRBM and MRBM forces, in order to better deter its real adversaries in the region- the US and Israel- than to put massive resources into a ICBM crash program for targets which don't offer anywhere near a corresponding, congruent deterrence value (not to mention the potential liabilities incurred in fielding such weaponry).

It's actually amazing that LTC Johnson didn't mention Iran's deterrent-based defense strategy or provide any credible Iranian SSM first-strike scenarios. Also, references to Israel's WMD capabilities are brief and almost non-associative to the threat of war involving Iran's SSM forces. Are we really to believe that countries such as Greece and Bulgaria constitute a risk factor of war involving Iran greater than that posed by Israel? If so, that would be absurd.

Police Academy Graduation Ceremonies

Photos from today’s graduation ceremonies at Police Sciences University in Tehran. Maj. General Hassan Firouzabadi, Chief of Staff of Iran Armed Forces, presided over the ceremonies. The graduates join the officer ranks of the Islamic Republic of Iran Security Force (NAJA), the country’s national paramilitary police force.

Photos: Mahdi Marizad, Fars News Agency

Ahmadinejad: No Nuclear Weapon for Iran

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad told Associated Press on Sunday that Iran will not build a nuclear bomb.

"We are not afraid of nuclear weapons. The point is that if we had in fact wanted to build a nuclear bomb, we are brave enough to say that we want it. But we never do that," Ahmadinejad said. [AP, 19 September 2010].

Majlis Speaker Criticizes Ahmadinejad– Asserts Authority of Majlis

In a sign of growing schism among the Iranian leaders, the country’s powerful Speaker of Majlis today criticized president Ahmadinejad over his remarks yesterday that the parliament no longer has the final authority over governmental affairs.

"If Imam Khomeini (the founder of the Islamic Republic) said Majlis has full authority, it was to prevent the re-emergence of dictatorship in Iran," Majlis Speaker Ali Larijani said today in response to Ahmadinejad’s remarks.

"Parliament should supervise lest the government deviates from its course," Larijani added [Fars News Agency, 19 September 2010].

Ahmad Tavakoli, one of the leaders of the conservative faction in Majlis, said that Ahmadinejad's remarks should be and would be reviewed in a joint meeting of Majlis, the government and the Guardian Council scheduled for tomorrow.

“Based on the Iranian Constitution, the president and his cabinet are accountable to people, Majlis and the Supreme Leader," Tavakoli added.

Ahmadinejad Meets UN Chief

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad holding talks with the UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon. New York. 19 September 2010

Photo: IRNA

IRGC: No US Troops Detained

IRGC denied a report that they had detained seven US soldiers and their two translators in Iranian Baluchistan.

Iran’s semi-official Fars News Agency and pro-government news website Raja News had reported the US troops and their Iranian guides were arrested on Sunday by IRGC frontier guards near the border with Pakistan.

UPDATE: In Washington, Captain Ryan Donald, a Pentagon spokesman, said: "Reports by state-run Iranian media that seven U.S. soldiers were detained after crossing into Iran are false." [Reuters, 19 September].

Ahmadinejad En Route to New York

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad just left Algiers airport en route to New York to attend the opening session of the UN General Assembly on 23 September. After leaving Tehran today, Ahmadinejad stopped in Damascus and Algiers airports to meet with Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika (top photo) and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad (bottom photo).

Top Photo: At Houari Boumedienne International Airport, Algiers. 18 September 2010. Photo by AFP.

Bottom Photo: At Damascus International Airport, 18 September 2010. Photo by Davood Poursehat, IRNA.

Netanyahu: "Within three to five years, we can assume that Iran will...produce a nuclear bomb."

An article from 1995 reveals that Benjamin Netanyahu stated that Iran would be in possession of nuclear weapons by around 2000:

"Within three to five years, we can assume that Iran will become autonomous in its ability to develop and produce a nuclear bomb, without having to import either the technology or the material.

[The nuclear threat] must be uprooted by an international front headed by the US. It necessitates economic sanctions on Iran."

Some things never change!

Jannati Cautions Government on Subsidy Reforms

Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, the chairman of the Guardian Council, warned Iranians today to expect hardship when the government slashes food and fuel subsidies. Ayatollah Janati is a hardline fundamentalist and a staunch supporter of President Ahmadinejad. He made the remarks on the government’s economic plans during his sermon at today’s Friday’s Prayer in Tehran.

"We will have a period of hardship ahead of us," Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati said. "The government should be careful to minimize the tensions and negative effects on poor people." [IRIB News, 17 September].

The government’s subsidy reforms would dramatically raise the price for gasoline, food and other essential goods. The Iranian governments in the past, including the governments in the shah’s era, have heavily subsidized the essential goods, a program that is estimated today to cost the government more than $100 billion a year. Ahmadinejad’s reform package would significantly slash these subsidies. The planned reforms would also include provisions for monthly cash payments to the poor.

The reforms were to start on 21 September, but due to disagreements with the Majlis, the start date has been postponed and new dates have been announced. But observers expect the reform package to go into effect within the next eight weeks.

For a full report on Jannati’s sermon, in Farsi, please see:

http://www.iribnews.ir/Default.aspx?Page=MainContent&news_num=246691

Sanctions on Iran and Its Effects (Part II)

By Amir Taheri

Further on the effects of sanctions on Iran and Nader's recent post here are some further thoughts. On the subject of banking and its difficulties, China will pick up where other banks are not comfortable issuing L/C for oil export. Alternatively, Turkey's prime minister spoke of Iran-Turkey trade today and added how he is encourging Turkish financial instituations to start doing what Dubai banks were/are doing to facilate Iran's trade with world. On the subject of oil tankers unwillingness to dock at Iranian ports, Iran currently has the fourth largest tanker company in the world, NITC. This firm can easily pick up if there is a need for it. Its capacity is such that 60% is devoted to international non-Iran locations and has recently signed deals to purchase further VLCC tankers to increase its capacity. As most of Irans non-oil exports are destined for freindly states, impact of sanctions on these export markets are mitigated. Watch for Iranian trade delegations shutteling to Asian, Latin American, and Africian states in the months to come. Key will be opening of new local Iranian banks in export target countries to by-pass sanctions focusing on the trade financing.

Iran Oil Export: Challenges Ahead

A number of financial publications, including the Financial Times, in the past few days have examined the challenges confronting Iran in exporting its crude oil because of the recent sanctions imposed by the UN, the US, EU, Japan and South Korea. Although the US has not as of yet sanctioned Iranian oil, but a variety of financial sanctions put in place in the past two month are creating major problems for the customers to buy oil from Iran. The most serious challenges are as follow:

- L/C: European and Middle Eastern banks are not opening new letters of credit or L/C for Iranian financial institutions. The issuance of L/C is critical for large international transactions. This situation makes the payments for oil very difficult, and its effects are expected to be seriously felt in the next few months when the customers of Iranian crude need to open new L/C.

- The Asian Banks: The oil traders dealing with Iran have recently switched to Asian banks to handle their transactions with Iran. But the recent set of sanctions announced by Japan and South Korea would soon end participation of the Asian banks in Iranian transactions.

- Tankers: The oil tanker carriers have started refusing tankers to Iranian destinations.

- Insurance: Insurance companies have also become reluctant to underwrite new oil transactions/shipments involving Iran.

Note: In this post we had reported Iran's oil export at 3.7 mb/d. That was of course a mistake. The export level is around 2 mb/d. The oil production is around 3.7 mb/d. Many thanks to one of our readers for pointing out the mistake and for sending us relevant data on Iran's oil industry.

15.8 Gallons per Month

The Iranian government today announced a monthly gasoline ration of 15.8 gallons (60 liters) per car. The ration was set for the month of Mehr (21 September- 20 October). The ration for subsequent months will be set in future.

Ahmadinejad Appoints Special Representatives to World Regions

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad today appointed special representatives for five regions of the world. The appointments were made amid serious concerns by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs that the move would undermine Iran’s foreign policy. The Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei last week had also warned against any “duplication” of responsibility for Iran’s foreign policy. But Ahmadinejad went ahead with his plans anyway and made the appointments official today.

Among the five appointments, one is particularly controversial: Esfandiar Rahim Mashaie as the special representative for the Middle East. Mashaie has emerged as Ahmadinejad’s principle deputy and has created uproars among the clergy and traditional elements within the Islamic Republic by advocating the country’s “Iranian identity” as opposed to its “Islamic identity.” Mashaie is also serving as Ahmadinejad’s chief of staff.

Today’s appointments were as follow:

- Eskandar Rahim Mashaie, The Middle East

- Shamos-din Hosseini, Africa

- Hamid Baqaie, Asia

- Mohammad Abbasi, Latin America

- Mohammad Mehdi Akhoond-Zadeh, The Caspian Sea

Ahmadinejad did not choose any representative for Europe or America, apparently not wanting to overtly interfere with Khamenei’s dominant position regarding the country's relations with the West.

For the texts of Ahmadinejad's appointments (in Farsi), please see: http://www.isna.ir/ISNA/NewsView.aspx?ID=News-1613668&Lang=P

Israel-Palestine Peace Talks

The peace talks between the Israeli and the Palestinian leaders were held in Sharm el-Sheik yesterday. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and the Egyptian President Hosni Mobarak attended the talks (photo above). The talks resumed today in Jerusalem. Observers have characterized the talks as “serious.”

Photo: Al Arabiya

Assembly of Experts Supports Khamenei

Assembly of Experts

Tehran. 15 September 2010

The Fourth Session of the Assembly of Expert today reiterated its strong support for the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei as the leader of the Islamic Republic. The assembly has the authority to select the supreme leader, an authority that has been exercised only once when it chose Khamenei to succeed Ayatollah Khomeini after he passed 21 years ago. The Assembly can theoretically unseat the supreme leader as well. The Assembly has 86 members, all male senior Shia clerics, and is chaired by Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani.

Photo: Mohammad Kazempour, Fars News Agency

Fars report in Farsi: http://www.farsnews.net/newstext.php?nn=8906241746

Morning Workout with the Minister

Iran’s Health Minister, Dr. Marzieh Vahid Dastjerdi (in black chador), during the morning’s exercise. Tehran, 22 September.

Photo by Nazgol Jahani of Reporters Club.

Honoring Cyrus

Honoring Cyrus the Great

Sydney Olympic Park

Iran Frees Sarah Shourd - UPDATE

Sarah Shourd with her mother, Nora, in Muscat, Oman

14 September 2010

Sarah Shourd detained for more than a year in Iran was released today. Her lawyer told reporters in Tehran that Shourd was indeed released and was undergoing formalities at the notorious Evin Prison in Tehran where she had been held in solitary confinement. Two other fellow American hikers still remain in prison.

Photos: AP

UPDATE: Sarah Shourd's flight took off from Tehran's Merabad airport following her release from prison.

UPDATE: She has reunited with her mother in Mascat, Oman.

Khamenei Accuses US of Supporting Quran Burning

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in the harshest language ever used, today accused the US and Israel as being behind the Quran burning acts.

“This hatred act (Quran burning) is not the beginning of a new process, but the continuation of an anti-Islam process led by the US and Zionist governments,” said Khamanie [Fars News Agency, 13 September]. “The leaders of Blasphemy are now aligned against Islam” [Fars News Agency, 13 September].

Khamenei identified the leadership in the US, the Zionist think tanks and some European governments as the “command center” of the anti-Islam projects, including military operations in Afghanistan, Iraq and Pakistan, as well as operations against Islamic forces in Lebanon and Palestine. He even pointed his fingers at the US and Israel as possible perpetuators of the 9/11 attacks in New York and Washington, paving the way for attacks on Afghanistan and Iraq.

Khamenei asked all Muslims to refrain from revengeful acts against the holy books or religious symbols of other religions. He also called upon the US government to punish the people engaged in Quran burning. Khamenei did not explain why a government accused by him for perpetuating such acts needs to punish those involved in such acts.

For the full text of Khamenei’s message in Farsi, please visit: http://www.farsnews.net/newstext.php?nn=8906221662

Turkish Referendum

The Turkish people on Sunday approved a referendum on sweeping changes to their country’s constitution. The key provisions:

EQUALITY - Strengthens gender equality and bars discrimination against children, elderly, the disabled and veterans.

PRIVACY - Recognizes the right to protection of personal information and access to official personal records.

FREEDOMS - Restricts travel bans imposed on individuals.

LABOR - Allows membership in more than one union in a workplace. Recognizes the right to collective bargaining for civil servants and other state employees. Removes bans on politically motivated strikes.

MILITARY - Gives officers fired by the military the right to appeal. Empowers civilian courts to try military personnel for crimes against state security and the constitutional order. Opens the way for the prosecution of Turkey's 1980 military coup leaders.

JUDICIARY – Gives power to parliament to appoint some of the members of the Constitutional Court. A panel of judges had selected all members until now. The secular parties strongly opposed this provision fearing the selection of non-secular judges by the parliament.

Source: AP