Explosive Confrontation Between Netanyahu and the American Ambassador Dan Shapiro

According to the Atlantic magazine (based in Washington DC) Republican congressman Mike Rogers from Michigan, told WJR radio station in an interview, that a meeting last month between the Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the American ambassador Dan Shapiro had degenerated into a sharp confrontation. He indicated that he had never been witness to such high-level confrontation before. He went on to say that Israeli leaders as being at "wits' end" over what they see as President Obama's unwillingness to provide them with his "red lines" in the effort to stop Iran's nuclear program.

It is my observation, after reading the article, that while representative Rogers seems to paint a picture of Mr. Netanyahu being aggrieved by the Obama administration's lack of aggressiveness towards Iran, this event illustrate how Mr. Netanyahu maybe overplaying his cards during a crucial election season in the United States.

It wouldn't be a stretch to assume that no American president likes to be openly bullied into changing his or (future her) foreign policy.

Israel risks long term damage to its strategic relationship with the United States if it fails to bridge the gap between its expectations of the United States, and what the US is willing to do. Even if Mr. Romney gets elected, he may not want to look like he is copy-pasting his foreign policy from Mr. Netanyahu's wish list.

Israel's image with Jewish Americans, at least those who happen to be solid supporters of president Obama, is also at stake. It is worth noting that ambassador Dan Shapiro is a former National Security Council official, and a former Obama campaign Jewish liaison. Mr. Netanyahu should be careful whom he yells at.

Last but not least, It is interesting that congressman Rogers didn't find it disturbing that a foreign leader was sharply confronting the ambassador of the United States, and forcefully demanding a change in US policy, how unpatriotic of the congressman!

To read the Atlantic magazine report please go to:

http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/09/intelligence-committee-chair-describes-explosive-confrontation-between-netanyahu-and-american-ambassador/262056/

Ahmadinejad: No secrecy on nuclear Iran

During an interview with Time Magazine, President Ahmadinejad states that Iran complies with established IAEA procedures for disclosing nuclear sites. BBC broadcast of the interview clip can be accessed here. Later, speaking at a press conference at the Intercontinental Hotel in New York, he stated that the recently disclosed pilot enrichment facility at Qom is under construction and scheduled to be operational in about eighteen months. He went on to say:

"According to the IAEA rules, countries must inform the Agency 6 months ahead of the gas injection in their uranium enrichment plants. We have done it 18 months in advance, and this should be appreciated not condemned."
- President Ahmadinejad

Professor Stephen Walt at ForeignPolicy.com provides an explanation on the alleged "secrecy" issue:

According to the Washington Post, Iran notified the IAEA on September 21 that it was constructing a new pilot enrichment plant. Assuming that it has not already introduced nuclear material into this facility (and Tehran says it hasn't), Iran is therefore in compliance with the NPT's Comprehensive Full Scope Safeguards Agreement, which requires it to notify the IAEA six months before nuclear material is introduced into any new facility. Iran previously withdrew from the more demanding Subsidiary Agreement 3.1, which would have required more detailed and timely notification, in response to the IAEA's decision to refer Iran's nuclear program to the U.N. Security Council. So from Tehran's perspective, this new facility is not a violation at all: they are permitted to enrich under the NPT and they have complied with the Comprehensive Safeguards agreement by notifying the IAEA of the new facility. [emphasis added]

The United States response: unilateral withdrawal from Agreement 3.1 is not permissible, and so technically Iran is still in violation of its past commitments, but this legalistic back-and-forth is part of a long pattern. In addition, the U.N. Security Council has passed several resolutions demanding that Iran cease all enrichment, and its refusal to comply provides the main legal basis for sanctions. Iran is hardly the first country to ignore Security Council resolutions, however, and Tehran undoubtedly believes that the construction of a second plant is not a direct violation of its more basic obligations under the NPT.

What remains unclear is the West's assertion that the Qom site was under surveillance for years, but somehow was not brought to world attention during the Bush administration. The Bush administration certainly held little to no reservations on heaping a wide range of accusations upon the Islamic Republic. Why was this specific one supposedly held back? Also, the fact that it took the West four days from the time of Iran's disclosure to the IAEA, to make its grand "announcement" at the G-20 summit, tends to support the view that the opportunity was specifically selected in order to negatively impact Iran's recent disclosure.

--MARK PYRUZ

Latest Moves on Iran's Nuclear Chessboard

Before President Ahmadinejad's visit to the UN this week, the United States appeared to have pulled off a masterstroke of diplomacy. President Obama decided to scrap the controversial missile defense shield, and it was obvious to most observers that one of the intended consequences of the move would be to sign up the Russians for further potential sanctions to be used against Iran, in the West's drive to coerce it into stopping its nuclear enrichment activities- an activity Iran has the legitimate right to pursue as a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Western observers appeared confident that the Islamic Republic was rapidly being placed into a diplomatic box, from where it could no longer wiggle.

Surprise! President Ahmadinejad shows up in New York, and in one of his many interviews, makes an informal request to purchase- of all things- medium enriched uranium from the United States. In addition to that, Ahmadinejad stated that Iran is willing to have its nuclear experts meet with scientists from the United States and other world powers, as a confidence-building measure aimed at resolving concerns about its nuclear program.

Now, it turns out that on Monday, the IAEA was told by Iran that it is in construction of a new pilot fuel enrichment facility. Media sources describe the new facility to be located near Qom, 160 kilometers southwest of Tehran. Contrary to the way this newly disclosed nuclear facility is being depicted in the Western media, the Iranians were under no obligation to disclose this nuclear site until six months before they introduce nuclear materials into it, per established IAEA procedure. They've done this.

These clever, chess-like moves by Iran were surmised well by a commentator at the ACW blog:

1. Under the NPT obligations Iran signed, it has to announce nuclear facilities to the IAEA only 6 months before introducing nuclear material to such a facility. The alleged “secrecy” is thereby a non issue as the facility is not yet in use and was announced to the IAEA on Monday.

2. The NYT says it is a small site for only 3,000 centrifuges. Such a site does NOT make sense to be used as a secondary for the big 50,000 centrifuges (planned end state) site in Natanz.

3. Ahmedinejad asked Thursday for U.S. supply for the Tehran research reactor, which was launched with U.S. help in 1968. That 5 MW reactor has medical and scientific use. It runs with medium enriched Uranium–i.e. 18-20% enrichment–and is under IAEA control.

4. Iran can not make, without some serious re-engineering, such fuel in Natanz.

5. An extra 3,000 centrifuge site makes perfect sense to enrich especially for the Tehran research reactor.

6. Now Iran can say: “Either sell us fuel for the research reactor or we, unfortunately, will have to make that fuel ourselves at the new site.”

Colonel Pat Lang over at his Sic Semper Tyrannis blog put it best, where he said: "Outwitted again!! Damnation!! How do these Iranians do it?"

--MARK PYRUZ

2nd Nuclear Technology Exhibition at Amirkabir University of Technology

News from Iran

The winds of war continued to dominate the media coverage in Iran. Many stories on the subject originally reported in Western media were covered by the local media. The worsening relations between Iran and US, especially after the US Congress designated the Revolutionary Guards as a terrorist organization, also received prominent coverage. The arrest of an Iranian national claimed by US military to be an IRGC general officer prompted Iran to close its border with Iraqi Kurdistan in protest. On domestic front, the largest student organization in Iran criticized President Ahmadinejad for his remarks at Columbia University calling Iran one of the freest country in the world. The students pointed out the dismal human rights records of the Islamic Republic.

The Winds of War

· New Yorker reported US war planning against Iran is intensifying; Bush administration was reported to target IRGC as main target for US air attack on Iran; rationale for bombing Iran has shifted from Iran's nuclear program to Iran's role in Iraq.
· French daily Le Canard Enchaine reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned Iran that war is imminent; the paper quoted French intelligence officials as saying that the first raids on Iranian nuclear sites will be made by Israeli aircraft protected and guided by US radar airplanes; the report said that Russia is supplying Iran with modern S-300 Antey and TOR M1 anti-aircraft missiles, batteries of M82 Moskit anti-ship missiles, helicopters, and small patrol boats to disrupt navigation on Persian Gulf.
· US Air Force was reported to set up a task force to plan an air attack on Iran; Project Checkmate was reported to consist of top air force officers tasked to perfect the plan of attack.
· Reports circulating in Washington indicated Israeli raid on Syrian targets on 6 September destroyed advanced weapon facilities in Syria; former US ambassador to UN John Bolton also said the raid targeted either a joint nuclear or missile facility with North Korea; surprising element of the air strike was the ability of Israeli Air Force jets to enter deep into Syria without setting off Russian-built radar systems in place in the country; analysts regard the Israeli air attack as a test of similar Russian-built surface-to-air missile air defense system in place in Iran.
· Kuwaiti daily, Al Watan, reported US jets circled above the Israeli fighters and gave them aerial cover during Israeli air strike on Syria on 6 September; the paper said Russian experts are trying to understand how the Israeli jets managed to enter so deep into Syrian territory without setting off Russian-built radar systems that were in place in the country; the strike in Syria could also be a test of air path to Iran.

Iran-US Relations

· US Senate by a vote of 76-22 approved the Kyl-Liberman amendment designating the IRGS as a foreign terrorist organization; the House of Representatives had earlier approved a similar measure designating IRGC as terrorists; US government is soon expected to designate IRGC or its Quds Force as a terrorist organization.
· Iran's Parliament – Majlis - labeled the US Military and the CIA as terrorist organizations in retaliation to the US Senate resolution designating IRGC a terrorist organization.
· Friday Prayer Imam Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati condemned the US Congress for designating the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization; “Shame on you, you disgraced lot. May you be damned!” said Jannati, addressing the US.
· Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said main problem facing Iraq is deployment of US forces in the country; Mottaki also said Iraq’s security and stability is in national interest of Iran.
· Iran’s executive secretary of Supreme National Security Council Ali Larijani said Iran will help US stabilize Iraq if Washington sets out a timetable for a withdrawal of its troops.
· Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has extended an invitation to US.President George W. Bush to speak at an Iranian university if US leader ever traveled to the Islamic Republic.

The Nuclear Issue

· World's major powers agreed to delay until November any new UN resolutions against Iran over its nuclear program; US, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany will wait for two reports by IAEA chief Mohammad ElBaradei and EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana before putting to vote the resolution for a third round of UN sanction; postponing the vote until November was the result of Russian and Chinese insistence to give IAEA more time to do its work in Iran.
· Representatives of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany called for Iran to suspend nuclear activities.
· Mujahedeen Khalgh Organization (MKO) claimed that Iran is constructing a secret, new underground nuclear facility near Natanz; MKO announced the news in Paris; Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani denied the accusation that there is a secret nuclear site in Iran; MKO said construction of new site began in late 2006 and it is to be completed in early 2008.

Leading Domestic Storylines

· Iranian military fired artillery shells on Kurdish militants’ positions inside Iraqi Kurdistan; IRGC Maj. Gen. Yahya Rahim Safavi, military advisor to the supreme leader, said PJAK bases are some 10 kilometers inside Iraqi territory.
· The Kurdistan Regional Government of Iraq asked Iran to stop shelling Iraq’s Kurdish border areas; the regional government reaffirmed its commitment to neighborly relations on the basis of mutual respect and common interests.
· The Office for Fostering Unity, Iran’s largest student organization, has criticized President Ahmadinejad’s assertions during his Columbia speech that Iran was one of the freest nations on earth; in an open letter to Ahmadinejad, student leaders blasted his administration for human rights violations and large number of student activists detained at Evin prison.

Leading Regional Storylines

· The railroad linking Iran and Iraq was approaching completion; the first phase linked the Iranian port city of Khorramshahr with the border town of Shalamcheh; the segment linking Shalamcheh to Iraqi city of Basra were expected to finish within six months.
· Shalamcheh, the border crossing linking Iran and Iraq, was named the "friendship border"; cities of Khorramshahr in Iran and Basra in Iraq were designated as "brother cities"; Iranian officials said the moves will foster human and cultural links between the two nations.
· India did not attend the official meeting held in Tehran on construction of Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) gas pipeline; US pressure on India not to invest in Iranian oil and gas sector was seen by observers as the reason behind India’s absence.
· Iran and Pakistan announced they will sign a gas pipeline agreement without India; Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) gas pipeline was to be built by the three countries, but India did not attend a crucial meeting held in Tehran on pipeline construction; US had strong objections to the pipeline exporting Iranian natural gas to south Asia.

Sarkozy: Iran is trying to acquire the nuclear bomb

French President Nicolas Sarkozy has for the first time directly accused Iran of seeking to acquire nuclear weapons. Sarkozy told TF1 and France 2, France’s major TV channels, on Thursday night that "Iran is trying to acquire the nuclear bomb. I have said that this is not acceptable, and I'm telling the French people that it is unacceptable.”

The French president said that the international community should continue working to convince Iran to renounce its ambitions just as it did with North Korea and Libya, through discussions, dialogue and sanctions. "If the current sanctions are not effective, let us go for tougher sanctions," Sarkozy said.

In a related development, the French foreign minister Bernard Kouchner today told Iran’s nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani that his remarks about impending war with Iran were taken out of context. Kouchner told Larijani that he was in favor of taking measures to prevent an armed conflict taking place.

President Bush Threatens Iran

President Bush delivering his starkest warning

against the Islamic Republic . Timesonline

President Bush today launched his strongest attack on Islamic Republic, accusing it of threatening to place the Middle East under the shadow of a nuclear holocaust. President Bush said he has authorized US military commanders in Iraq to confront Iran’s “murderous activities.”

The president accused his Iranian counterpart, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, of openly supporting violent forces within Iraq. Bush implicitly called for a regime change in Iran, calling for “an Iran whose government is accountable to its people, instead of leaders who promote terror and pursue technology that could be used to develop nuclear weapons.”

Hours after the president’s speech, US troops detained two Iranian diplomats and six members of an Iranian delegation visiting Baghdad to negotiate business contracts with Iraqi officials. They were blindfolded and handcuffed before being taken away from their hotel. Their luggage and computer equipment were also confiscated. The US military holds another five Iranian official since January. The five were arrested in the Iraqi northern city of Irbil and the US military contends that among them is the chief of operations of the Revolutionary Guards’ notorious Quds Force.

Iran Under Pressure on Nuclear Issue

French Ambassador to the United Nations Jean-Maurice Ripert told reporters today that the Security Council might not wait till October to impose a third round of sanctions against Iran over its nuclear program. Ripert said Iran has not delivered what the Security Council had asked and it will have to boost the international sanctions (AFP, 17 August 2007).

Earlier this week, President Hu Jiatao of China warned President Ahmadinejad in their meeting in Bishkek the China wants Iran to show “flexibility” and to resolve pending issues on its nuclear program (Xinhua, 15 august 2007). Hu told the Iranian president that he wants to see Iran moving toward a “correct solution,” a Communist Party coded language for demanding Iran to abide with the UN Security Council’s resolutions and to suspend its uranium enrichment program. Iran analysts agree that Hu’s language was the strongest ever used by the Chinese on Iran’s nuclear issue.

On a related development, Russia has demanded Iran to fully disclose the previously-confidential details of its nuclear program. Russia has suspended the delivery of nuclear fuel for Bushehr nuclear power plant pending Tehran’s acceptance of key demands of UN Security Council.

British Prime Minister Gordon Brown did forecast Iran’s predicament in late July by saying that there will be a third UN Security Council resolution in relation to Iran soon.

News from Iran

The mounting tensions in US-Iran relations dominated the coverage in the Iranian media. Comments by President Bush on his continuous efforts to isolate Iran and earlier comments by a senior US military commander in Iraq accusing Iran of arming Shia militias in Baghdad received prominent coverage in the press. The conservative press emphasized the “futile” nature of any further negotiations with the US, while the moderate press highlighted the risks involved in the deteriorating relations with the US.

On the nuclear front, the government disclaimed comments made by Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator during an interview with a German magazine that suspension of uranium enrichment could be a possibility. A government spokesman said Iran would not consider suspension under any circumstances.

President Ahmadinejad continued his diatribes against Israel, this time suggesting that the Jewish state should fine a new home elsewhere on the planet.

On domestic front, the crackdown against moderate and reformist press continued. The reformist flagship daily Shargh was closed down by the government. The number of detained journalists in the notorious Security Section 209 at Evin prison rose to eleven.

US-Iran Relations

· US President George Bush said he would continue efforts to isolate Iran; Bush accused Iran of being a destabilizing force in the region; Bush, at a ceremony at Camp David for Afghan President Hamid Karzai, said that because of the actions of the US government, Iran is isolated and the US will continue to work to isolate it further.
· A senior US army commander in Iraq, Lt. Gen. Raymond Odierno, accused Iran for increasing its supply of weapons and training to Shia militias in Iraq; Gen. Odierno said the Shia militias were responsible for two-thirds of the attacks in Baghdad that has killed or injured US troops.
· The US and Iranian ambassadors to Iraq met for third round of talks in two months on Iraqi security; Iranian Ambassador Hassan Kazemi Qomi and the US Ambassador Ryan Crocker met for about two hours on Monday 6 Agust in Baghdad; the US, Iraqi and Iranian delegations also held their first talks as part of a subcommittee on Iraqi security.
· Meetings of the trilateral committee involving Iran, Iraq, and the US began in Baghdad to discuss the issue of security in Iraq; the Iraqi president Jalal Talabani met with the Iranian delegation and expressed hope that the trilateral meeting will help achieve security and stability in Iraq.

Iran Nuclear Program

· Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini said Iran would not consider a suspension of uranium enrichment activities under any circumstances; Hosseini denied that Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator, Ali Larijani, had said that a suspension was conceivable; the German weekly Focus had quoted Larijani as saying during an interview that a suspension was conceivable as an outcome to talks with world powers; Hossienin said that Iran’s nuclear program was progressing at “normal” pace and uranium enrichment will continue as planned.
· A delegation from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) led by Michiro Hosaya arrived in Iran for talks on nuclear inspections; Hosaya held a meeting with Mohammad Saeedi, the deputy director of Iran’s atomic energy organization; the talks centered around the future inspections of Iran's uranium enrichment facilities at Natanz; Last week, another IAEA team inspected the heavy-water reactors under construction in Arak.

Leading Regional Storylines

· Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki is scheduled to visit Iran tomorrow; a high-level delegation of Iraq’s ruling Al Dawah Party arrived in Tehran for talks on the future of Prime Minister Nuri Al Maliki’s government; reports circulating in Tehran suggest that Al Maliki’s government is loosing support for its lack of authority in Iraq and the Iranians might favor the return of Ebrahim Jafari as premier.
· Colonel Rahmatullah Safi, head of border police for western Afghanistan, told The Sunday Times that Iran is arming the Taliban; Safi accused Iran of delivering sophisticated IED’s (improvised explosive devices) to Taliban rebels to fight the British troop; The Sunday Times reports that Afghan military sources fear that the Iranians may also have supplied heat-seeking missiles along with supplies of assault rifles and mortars.
· Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad called on Israel to leave the Palestinian territories; Ahmadinejad said let the Israelis “go find somewhere else.”

Leading Domestic Storylines

· One of Iran’s leading newspapers, Shargh, was closed down by the government; Shargh had published an interview with an Iranian-Canadian poet, Misagh Ghahraman, in its culture section that had dealt with the issue of female homosexuality; the interview titled “Womanly Talk” was published in Monday 4 August edition of the paper; the government accused Shargh for the “publication of an interview with an anti-revolutionary and homosexual woman.”
· The Assembly of Experts is scheduled to meet 4-6 September to choose a successor to its deceased chairman, Ayatollah Ali Meshkini; Ayatollah Mohammad Taqi Mesbah Yazdi and Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani were among the leading candidates to head the assembly; the 86-man clerical assembly is empowered to choose and supervise the Supreme Leader.
· The Expediency Council rejected the Majlis bill to combine the next Majlis and presidential elections; the elections for the 8th Majlis will be held on Friday 18 March, 2008; the presidential elections will be held in June 2009.
· Iran’s Defense Minister Brigadier Mohammad Mustafa Najar announced that a domestic fighter jet, called Azarakhsh, was test flown successfully; the flight took place in Isfahan; Azarakhsh is the second fighter built in Iran (3); the first, Saeqeh, is already in service.
· Iran’s Intelligence Minister Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejeie said his organization has foiled a “terror plot” in southern province of Khuzestan; Ejeie added that a group of “anti-revolutionaries” were aiming to carry out the act; Ejeie did not elaborate on the target of the plot or the individuals involved; Ejeie also revealed that in recent months “a number of anti-revolutionaries” had been arrested in Iran’s neighboring countries and extradited back to Iran, but he gave no details.

News from Iran

The growing tensions between the US and Iran and the regional security issues dominated the coverage in the Iranian media. The influential former president Hashemi Rafsanjani warned the nation that “exceptional conditions” exists for the country, with the US, the UK and the Arab states of the Persian Gulf uniting against Iran. The influential conservative daily Keyhan characterized US-Iran talks as “fruitless” and the commander of the revolutionary guards called upon the Moslems to increase their vigilance against the US. The Iranian foreign minister denounced US arms sales to Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states as “mercenary in nature.” On the nuclear front, President Ahmadinejad said that accepting Iran’s uranium enrichment program is the only way to resolve the nuclear standoff with Iran.

US-Iran Relations

· Iran’s influential former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani warned the nation that “exceptional conditions” exists for the country; Rafsanjani said that the common stance adopted by the US president and the British prime minister against Iran during their recent meeting and the visits by the US state and defense secretaries to the region to “strengthen the regional countries against Iran” are manifestations of these “exceptional conditions” in the country; Rafsanjani added that during his presidency friendly relationships with the Arab state of the Persian Gulf were established and they were not uniting against Iran.
· Iran’s foreign minister Manouchehr Mottaki said US has too many problems in Iraq to be able to attack Iran; Mottaki said 170,000 US soldiers in Iraq have been unable to guarantee neither their own safety nor the security of Iraq; Mottaki dismissed any future UN sanction against Iran and said they would not change Iran’s mind to continue its nuclear program.
· Iran’s secretary of supreme national security council Ali Larijani said Iran is in no need for US security guarantees; Larijani said Iran will exercise its rights, including its nuclear rights, regardless if US likes it or not; he added the US does not want Iranians to have the nuclear technology; Larijani chided the US for making a strategic mistake on stopping Iran’s nuclear program because Iran has already acquired the nuclear technology.
· The influential conservative daily Keyhan called the recent negotiations between Iran and US on Iraqi security as “fruitless”; the editorial on 25 July characterized the US as “obstructionist” and “irresponsible”; sensible talks do not get through to the occupiers of Iraq, the editorial concluded.

Iran Nuclear Program

· Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said accepting Iran’s legal rights to enrich uranium is the only solution to the nuclear standoff; They [the West] should come and say this is your right, Ahmadinejad added; he said that security council resolutions against Iran over its nuclear program are illegal; he said the court of public opinion in the world is in favor of Iran and the public opinion has the final say on the world stage today.
· Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani said that enriching uranium is like “breathing” for Iran; Larijani said Iran will not halt the spinning centrifuges at Natanz enrichment plant.
· Iran’s foreign minister Manouchehr Mottaki said new sanctions against Iran would mean “confrontation” with Iran; Mottaki said that Iran would be tempted to do “illegal” things if a new round of sanctions is imposed on the country;
· The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors visited heavy-water reactor under construction at Arak; the inspection took place on 30 July and lasted five hours.
· Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini said Iran has no debts to Russia for the construction of Bushehr nuclear reactor; he rejected Russian claims that Iran has failed to fulfill its financial commitments on Bushehr project; Hosseini added that it would be in the interest of Russia not to waste time and to speed up the plant completion.

Domestic Storylines

· Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Iran is in the process of building satellites; he said Iran must have its own satellite in the orbit; “We have to build it. We are doing it right now,” Ahmadinejad said.
· President Ahmadinejad said that fuel consumption in the country was much more than the global average and rationing gasoline was a necessity; he said that gasoline rationing was favored by Majlis (the parliament) and the government decided to implement it; he said the rationing program has resulted in a drop in gasoline consumption of 23 million liter (6 million gallon) per day; the program limits the gasoline consumption to slightly less than a gallon per car per day.
· President Ahmadinejad said he has not yet thought about running for re-election; responding to a reporter’s question on the unpopularity of the government’s gasoline rationing program and the risks to his re-election chances, Ahmadinejad said what he says and what he does is not meant to win votes.
· Iranian judiciary spokesman Ali Reza Jamshidi said two Iranian Kurdish journalists have been sentenced to death for being "enemies of God"; Adnan Hassanpour and Abdolvahed "Hiva" Botimar were sentenced to death on July 16 by a revolutionary court in Marivan, in Iran's northeastern Kordestan province.

Regional Storylines

· Iranian foreign minister Manouchehr Mottaki denounced US arms sales to Saudi Arabia and other Arab states of the Persian Gulf as “mercenary” in nature; Mottaki said that the sales is to help US defense contractors from going bankrupt; Mottaki said “the White House politicians are major stakeholders in big arms companies trying to abuse their remaining months in office to whip up a delusional atmosphere, bring big profits to those arms companies and present the outcome as a move to enhance regional stability and security”; Iranian Defense Minister Brigadier General Mohammad Mustafa Najar also accused the US of seeking to “spark an arms race in a bid to keep their giant weapon production companies away from the danger of bankruptcy.”
· The Commander of Islamic Revolution Guards Corp. (IRGC) Major General Yahya Rahim Safavi said Muslims should increase their vigilance against the US; Gen. Safavi said Iraq is becoming another Vietnam for the US.
· Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini said if the US abides by the outcome of US-Iran talks on Iraq and fulfills its commitments, it must help bolster the Maleki government; Hosseini expressed concerned over recent development to weaken the Iraqi government and pledged Iran’s full support for Maleki.
· Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini denied published reports that Iran is promoting violence in Basra; UK Consul in Basra, Richard Jones had accused Iran of promoting violence to hinder UK plan to hand in the city’s security to the Iraqis.
· Iranian speaker of parliament, Gholam Haddad Adel, said the victory of Hezbollah over Israel belongs to the entire Moslem world; Adel wished Hezbollah “greater victories in future fight against Zionism.”
· Iran’s influential conservative daily Keyhan, commenting on the recent elections results in Turkey, wrote that Iran’s own Islamic revolution inspired the wave of Islamism in Turkey and in the entire region; Keyhan added that the “green revolution” in the Middle East is superseding the Western-inspired velvet revolutions that took place elsewhere; the reformist daily Aftab Yazd commenting on the same election results criticized Keyhan and the government for not understanding that the victory by Islamic Justice and Development Party (AKP) does not represent victory of Islamism, Aftab Yazd wrote that AKP is committed to the country’s “general secular framework” and although their leaders are personally practicing Moslems but they have accepted the secular nature of the Turkish state.

The Views of Iranians

In a poll conducted in June 2007, the Iranians were asked about their views on the economy, the nuclear program and their political system. An overwhelming majority regard the creation of new jobs as the top priority. A majority favors a nuclear Iran, but 80% of Iranians are ready to stop nuclear weapon programs if Iran gets international trade and investment necessary to create new jobs. Jobs are more important than the bomb.

An overwhelming majority of Iranians favor a republic where all the leaders are freely and directly elected by the people. They oppose the current political system and they oppose the return of monarchy to Iran.

The poll was conducted for Terror Free Tomorrow, by telephone from 5 June to 18 June, 2007, with 1,000 interviews proportionally distributed according to the population covering all 30 provinces of Iran (www.TerrorFreeTomorrow.org).

On Economy
75% of Iranians think the present economic situation is fair to poor. A minority of 25%, however, feels they are benefiting from the government policies and the economy is going in the right direction.

Do you think the economy in Iran today is going in the right direction?
No: 42%
Yes: 27%
Don't Know: 19%
Neither: 11%

In terms of your own personal economic situation, do you think your financial situation today is better, the same, or worse than it was when President Ahmadinejad took office?
The same: 44%
Worse: 31%
Better: 24%

Would you say President Aahmadinejad’s policies have or have not succeeded in reducing unemployment and inflation?
Have not: 52%
Have: 33%

Do you feel that President Ahmadinejad has kept his campaign promise to “put oil money on the table of the people themselves?”
No: 56%
Yes: 22%


On Nuclear Program
Two-thirds of Iranians strongly favor the development of peaceful nuclear technology. The public opinion is divided on developing nuclear weapons. A majority favors having the bomb and feels safer with the bomb. But 80% are ready to stop any nuclear weapon programs if in return Iran could get foreign trade and capital investment creating more jobs in the country. The Iranians are saying that jobs are more important than the bomb.

Do you favor or oppose the Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran developing nuclear energy?
Strongly favor: 78%
Somewhat favor: 14%
Oppose: 5%

Apart from nuclear energy, do you favor or oppose the Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran developing nuclear weapons?
Strongly oppose: 37%
Strongly favor: 33%
Somewhat favor: 19%
Somewhat oppose: 5%

If the Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran had nuclear weapons, do you think that the people of Iran would live in a safer or more dangerous world?
Safer: 52%
More dangerous: 31%

Would you support or oppose Iran receiving [international] assistance in return for Iran guaranteeing not to develop nuclear weapons?
Support: 80%
Oppose: 15%


On Politics:
The Iranians oppose the present political system where the Supreme Leader is not chosen by a direct vote of the people. They favor a republic where leaders are freely and directly elected.

Do you support or oppose a political system where the ‘Supreme Leader’ rules according to religious principles, and cannot be chosen or replaced by a direct vote of the people?
Strongly oppose: 53%
Strongly favor: 17%
Somewhat favor: 10%
Somewhat oppose: 8%

Do you support or oppose a political system where the ‘Supreme Leader’, along with all other leaders, can be chosen and replaced by a free and direct vote of the people?
Strongly support: 72%
Strongly oppose: 11%
Somewhat support: 7%
Somewhat oppose: 3%

Do you support or oppose a political system where there is a monarch who is not elected by the people, rules for life, and his family inherits the right to rule?
Strongly oppose: 75%
Strongly support: 6%
Somewhat oppose: 6%
Somewhat support: 4%

News from Iran

The government clampdown on dissent and its decision to ration gasoline dominated the coverage in the Iranian media. In the past few weeks the Iranian government has started a massive crack down on pro-reform press, student organizations, labor unions, former high-level government officials, Iranian-American personalities visiting the country, and the restive public. On the economy front, President Ahmadinejad rejected a proposal to allow drivers who reached their limit to purchase more fuel at a higher price. The authorities also arrested over 80 people for damaging gas stations during protests against fuel rationing. A former oil minister confirmed published reports that Iran’s oil production is rapidly depleting due to lack of foreign investment. Iran can loose all its oil export revenues by 2014 if no new investment were available to expand the oil production.

Crackdown on Dissent
· On 2 July, the government closed down the pro-reform daily Ham-Mihan and suspended the activities of the independent news agency ILNA.
· On 10 July, the government ordered the final closure of ILNA.
· On 5 July, the police special forces stormed the top-ranked Polytechnic University and arrested 11 student leaders. The student leaders have been transferred to the notorious Evin Prison.
· On 10 July, Masour Osanloo, a labor union leader, was kidnapped near his house. It is widely believed that the plain-cloth men who picked him up were the agents of the Ministry of Intelligence.
· In the past month, four Iranian-Americans personalities visiting the country have been charged with promoting velvet revolution in Iran and three of them are kept at Evin Prison.
· In May, the government arrested Hossein Mossavian, the country’s former nuclear negotiator and a close ally of former president Hashemi Rafsanjani. Mossavian has since been accused of espionage.
· On 9 July, the Intelligence Ministry announced the arrest of 20 people who allegedly were part of a spy network.
· On 27 June, authorities arrested 80 people on the charge of damaging gas stations during protests against fuel rationing.

In December, the people will elect the 8th Majlis (Iranian parliament). In June 2009, the people will elect the 10th president of the Islamic Republic. Ahmadinejad and fundamentalist groups want to hold on power in Majlis and Ahmadinejad himself wants to be reelected as president. The pro-reform press, the student leaders and union activist, the former high-level officials in Rafsanjani and Khatami administrations, including the Three Ayatollahs (Rafsanjani, Khatami and Karubi), the Iranian-American pro-reform personalities and anyone protesting against the government is now viewed as enemy. To get reelected and to keep Majlis in his camp, Ahmadinejad needs to defeat the alliance formed by the pro-reform movement. The five months left to the parliamentary elections may well prove the most challenging period for proponents of reform and democracy in Iran.

Other Domestic Storylines
· President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad decided against a proposal to allow motorists to purchase more gasoline than their rations at free market price; Ahmadinejad said doing so would push up the country’s inflation rate to unaccepted levels; he said setting a free market price for gas under the present circumstances is a “killer poison” for the country's economy; the gasoline ration of about one gallon per day per car went into effect earlier in the month; a number of officials, including the Minister of Energy, had previously said that the drivers who reached their limit would be able to purchase more fuel at a higher price.
· Iranian authorities announced the arrest of 80 persons on the charge of damaging gas stations and looting shops during protests against fuel rationing.
· Four trucks smuggling gasoline our of Iran crashed into each other and caught fire in southeastern country, killing 13 people; the trucks crashed near the Pakistan border; fuel smuggling from Iran to neighboring countries is common because the country has one of the lowest fuel prices in the region.
· Iran’s former oil minister Akbar Torkan said Iran produces four million bpd of crude oil, but without new investment, five percent of this production capacity will be gone every year; Torkan was confirming published reports that Iran was in danger of loosing its oil exports by 2014 if no new foreign investment were attracted to work in the country’s oil fields; US sanctions prohibit American and foreign companies to invest in Iranian oil and gas industry.
· A man convicted of adultery was stoned to death in Aghchekand, 124 miles west of Tehran; the spokesman for the judiciary did not elaborate on how the stoning was carried out; The execution came two weeks after the Iranian officials had delayed carrying out the sentence against Jafar Kiani and after the head of the Judiciary had said that the sentence will not be carried out; Kiani’s female companion, Mokarrameh Ebrahimi, who also was sentenced to death by stoning is still in prison.

The Nuclear Program
· IAEA Chief Mohammad ElBaradei said Iran has slowed down the expansion of its nuclear enrichment capabilities at Natanz ; Hamid Reza Haji Babaei, a member of the National Security Committee of Majlis (Iranian parliament), denied reports that Iran had slowed down the pace of its nuclear activities at Natanz facility; Haji Babaei said Iran had not agreed with anyone to reduce its uranium enrichment activities; he added that uranium enrichment was regarded as the red line for Iran and that all previous nuclear activities are still continuing and at the same pace.
· Ali Asghar Soltanieh, Iran’s ambassador to IAEA, said that Iran expects that the new round of talks between EU foreign policy chief and Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator will lead to conclusive results; Soltanieh welcomed EU “new trend” in favoring negotiations on Iran’s nuclear standoff.
· President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad rejected any talks of uranium enrichment suspension as part of an agreement with EU to head off a showdown with the West over the country’s nuclear program.
· An IAEA delegation, headed by the agency’s deputy chief, arrived in Tehran.

Regional Storylines
· The leader of an Al Qaida in Iraq warned Iran in a new audiotape to stop supporting the Shia in Iraq; Al Qaida warned Iran would face a ''severe war'' if it continued its support of the Shia.
· Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini said that the five Iranians diplomats detained by US forces in Iraq complained about poor conditions during their meeting with Iranian ambassador to Iraq; Hosseini said the detainees have access to minimum facilities and were under psychological pressure by their US captors; Ambassador Hassan Kazemi Qumi and three other Iranian diplomats had a five-hour meeting with the detainees for the first time since their arrest.
· Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini denied published reports that Iran had played a big role in Hamas's seizure of Gaza from Palestinian security forces.
· Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini said the three islands of Greater Tunb, Lesser Tunb and Abu-Musa are an inseparable and eternal part of the soil of the Islamic Republic of Iran; Hosseini criticized the statement issued at the conclusion of the Gulf Cooperation Council in Riyadh backing UAE’s claims on the three islands.

What About Bushehr?

ISNA quoted Iran’s national security officials today that problems regarding the start of work at Bushehr are being resolved and the country’s first nuclear power plant will start its operation within the next two months (ISNA, 5 July).

However, chief of Russia’s atomic energy agency told TASS news agency yesterday that the plant could not possibly be launched for another year (ITAR-TASS, 4 July).

Javad Vaidi, deputy secretary of Iran’s National Security Council told ISNA that the Iranian experts are finishing up the work at the plant and that he expects all outstanding issues with the Russians to be resolved in the next few weeks.

News from Iran

The Iranian government’s gasoline rationing and the reports of the decision’s aftermath dominated the coverage in the Iranian media. Long lines were formed at gas stations throughout the country and a dozen stations were burned and destroyed. Tehran’s police chief complained the government had kept the police in dark as to when the rationing was to take effect which resulted in police absence at the scene when the stations came under attack. On the nuclear front, the Iranian president said the country was unfazed by threat of new sanctions and will continue to develop its nuclear program. In regional news, Iran denied any involvement in abducting and killing five US soldiers last January in Karbala as alleged by the US military in Iraq. Iran launched a 24-hour English-language TV news channel, called Press TV.

The Gasoline Rationing

· Iran’s Oil Ministry announced the rationing nationwide of gasoline for the motorists; immediately after the announcement long lines were formed at gasoline stations and several stations were burned and destroyed; the suddenness of the announcement caused chaos throughout the country; Tehran police chief Brig. Gen. Esmail Ahmadi Moqadam said the Oil Ministry failed to notify him when the rationing was going to take effect; Moqadam said the announcement took the police off guard and they could not prevent the destruction and the burning; Tehran’s deputy mayor said the city did not have the additional 6,000 taxis and a thousand more buses it needed to meet the rising demand for public transport; Iran’s Majlis Speaker Gholam Ali Haddad Adel said that greater advance notice of gasoline rationing would have prolonged public chaos.
· Iran has imported over $2 billion worth of gasoline since the start of the Iranian year on 21 March; the Treasury would have used its allocated $5.2 billion annual billion for gasoline imports within a few months; Keyhan, the influential conservative daily, called for sharp rise in gasoline prices to prevent gasoline smuggling to the neighboring counties; the price of gasoline is set by government at 41 cents a gallon with the ration of slightly more than a gallon of gasoline per car per day; the government has not yet announced the price for extra fuel purchased above the quota.
· Venezuela agreed to sell gasoline to Iran; Venezuelan energy minister Rafael Ramirez said the Iranians had asked to buy gasoline from us and Venezuela accepted their request; Ramirez was accompanying President Hugo Chavez in his visit to Iran.

The Nuclear Program

· The deputy director of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Ollie Heinonen will visit Iran on 11 July to resolve outstanding issues on the country’s nuclear program; Ali Asghar Soltaniyeh, Iran's ambassador to IAEA, said the delegation would not inspect Iran's nuclear facilities during their visit since they are not inspectors; Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani had invited the IAEA to send a team to Tehran to resolve unanswered questions on the nuclear program’s past; Larijani had met IAEA chief Mohammad ElBaradeie in Geneva on 23 June.
· Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Iran is unfazed by threat of new sanctions; Ahmadinejad said that the West cannot cause Iran any harm.
· Iranian Majlis deputy Morteza Tamaddon said Iran would retaliate if US Congress approves a proposed legislation to ban companies from selling gasoline to Iran; Tamaddon said Iran will restrict the flow of oil through Strait of Hormuz if the Congress passed the bill.
· Russian President Vladimir Putin called for measured steps in dealing with Iranian nuclear program; US President George Bush said that during their meeting in Kennebunkport, Maine, he and Putin agreed to “send a strong message” to Iran over the country’s nuclear program; US has been trying hard to gain the Russian support on a new round of tough economic sanctions against Iran.
· Atomstroyexport, the Russian general contractor building Iran's Bushehr nuclear power plant, sent its representative to Iran to resolve the remaining issues between the two sides; Atomstroyexport had stopped work at Bushehr due to financial disputes with the Iranian government.

Iran-US Relations

· Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini denied accusations made by US military in Iraq of Iran’s involvement in training Iraqi extremists; the US military said that a captured senior Hezbollah militant, Ali Musa Daqduq, had confessed to training Iraqi militants inside Iran; US Brig. Gen. Kevin Bergner also accused Iran of direct involvement in the capture and the killing of five US soldiers in Karbala last January; Gen. Bergner said that Daqdup was a liaison between the Iranians and Al Qazaali group accused of carrying out the abduction and killings of the Americans in Karbala; Iran’s defense minister Brig. Gen. Mohammad Mustafa Najar rejected the claims; Najar said the US accusations regarding Iran's interference in Iraq's affairs were “lies.”

Other Domestic Storylines

· Iran launched a 24-hour English-language TV news channel, called Press TV (3); Press TV is owned and operated by state-owned Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB); Press TV will compete with Al Jazeera English and other 24-hour English-language TV news channels; Press TV has a staff of 400, with 26 foreign correspondents stationed in major cities worldwide; the news channel did not have any agreements in place with the US cable operators for its programs to be carried by cable.
· Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad rejected a proposal by US movie director Oliver Stone to make a film about him; Mehdi Kalhor, Ahmadinejad’s media advisor, said Stone is part of the cultural establishment of the “Great Satan”.

Regional and International Storylines

· Iran will join Cuban-Venezuelan trade agreement as an “observer member”; the visiting Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez welcomed Iran’s observer membership in the trade pact that he called an alternative to the Free Trade Area of the Americas; Chavez and Cuban President Fidel Castro signed the deal, known by its Spanish acronym ALBA, in 2005; Chavez said cooperation between countries such as Iran and Venezuela will have an effective role “in defeating imperialism”; Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini said Iran and Venezuela would sign over 20 memorandums of understanding during Chavez's visit to Iran.
· Chavez and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad met in Asaloyeh, the center of Iranian petrochemical industry on the shores of the Persian Gulf, to launch the construction of a joint petrochemical plant; the tow presidents called the joint venture a manifestation of an “axis of unity” between the two nations.
· Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hossieni said that that Iran has returned to UAE the three boats it had ceased near the island of Abu Mussa; Hosseini said all their passengers were also released and were returned to UAE.
· Iran called for end of hostilities in Yemen through regional mediation; the foreign ministry spokesman said Iran welcomes end of clashes and peaceful settlement of issues in the framework of national unity in Yemen.