Revolution @ 35

Today, Iran marks the 35th anniversary of the Islamic Revolution that toppled the Shah’s regime and brought Khomeini to power.

Scene from today’s celebration. Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani at the center. 11 February 2014. (Mashreq) 

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani returning from today’s celebration. (Mashreq)

Tehran: 1978

Tehran, 1978: At the height of anti-Shah revolution

Iran Marks Islamic Republic Day

Iran commemorates the 34th anniversary of a referendum in which Iranians voted for the establishment of the Islamic Republic following the collapse of the Shah’s regime. In a two-day referendum held on 30-31 March 1979, Iranians overwhelmingly voted “yes” to establish an Islamic Republic.

Ayatollah Khomeini, the leader of the Iranian revolution, had famously said that a new generation of Iranians needed a referendum because the regime they had was not of their choosing but that of their parents and grandparents. Now after more than three decades after the referendum, a new generation of Iranians has come to replace their parents and grandparents. Is it the time then for a new referendum?

File photo: Overwhelming majority of Iranians voted in favor of the establishment of the Islamic Republic. March 1979 (IRNA)

Islamic Republic Celebrating Its 34th Anniversary

A Decisive Year Ahead – In Pictures

Iran Leadership (a house divided)

Khamenei and Rafsanjani (from left to right, revolutionary to diplomat)

Sadeq Larijani (ultra-right and the danger of a “Judicial” putsch)

Ahmadinejad and Mashaie (struggle for survival)

Nuclear Program

Oil Sanctions

The Economy

Islamic Republic will celebrate its 34^th anniversary on Sunday. This year could prove to be as decisive as any period in these 3.5 decades: major issues facing the country and a mid-year presidential election.

June presidential election, arguably the most important presidential election ever - Key players, in pictures, from top:

Iran leadership (a house divided)

Khamenei and Rafsanjani (from left to right, revolutionary to diplomat)

Sadeq Larijani (ultra-right and the danger of a “Judicial” putsch)
Ahmadinejad and Mashaie (struggle for survival)

Major issues facing Iran, in pictures, from top:

Nuclear Program

Oil Sanctions

The Economy

IRGC Commander: ‘Critical and Decisive Situation’ in Defending Islamic Revolution

Greater Tehran as Focal Point

IRGC Commander Maj. Gen. Mohammad Ali “Aziz” Jafari said today in Tehran that the Islamic Revolution is in “a very critical and decisive situation.” Gen. Jafari attributed the situation to “rapid spread” of the Islamic revolution throughout the world, with “Greater Tehran as its focal point.” Jafari emphasized the need for forces loyal to the revolution to engage its enemies “not just on the battlefields,” but also in “soft domains” which are “the biggest threats.”

“Today, the situation of the Islamic revolution is of a very critical and decisive situation, because the Islamic revolution is rapidly spreading throughout the world, with Greater Tehran as its focal point, and it needs revolutionary, capable and religious forces who are knowledgeable of the current situation in the world,” Gen. Jafari said.

“We should not think that the presence of (our revolutionary forces) in defense of (our) revolution would be limited to the battlefield. Today, the biggest threats against the revolution come from “soft domains,” Jafari added. (Fars News Agency, 3 August)

Islamic Republic at 33

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad greeting foreign ambassadors and chiefs of mission at the foreign ministry building in Tehran to mark the 33^rd anniversary of the Islamic Republic. IRNA Photo

The Islamic Revolution triumphed on 11 February 1979.

Iran Revolution Has Given Rise to Current Movements in Middle East - Khamenei

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei today said in Tehran that the current movements in the Middle Eastern countries have their origins partly in the Islamic revolution in Iran and the successes of the Iranian government. He also predicted, without going into any details, that further changes await the Middle East region.

“The auspicious movement which has begun in the region today is partly the results of the Iranian nation's resistance, and more developments will take place in the region in future.

"Almost all analysts in the world acknowledge that the current movement in the Middle East region and North Africa has stemmed from the Iranian nation's uprising," Khamenei said [IRNA, 3 April].

By the latter, it is assumed that Ayatollah Khamenei was referring to the 1979 Islamic revolution and not the more recent movement in 2009. But he did not address the question why it took 32 years for the Iranian uprising to usher in the Arab Spring. And if the supreme leader believes the current movement in Syria has also stemmed from the Islamic revolution.

Mousavi: Revolution Did Not Achieve Its Goals

Opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi said in Tehran today the 1979 Islamic revolution had failed to end tyranny and dictatorship in the country. Mousavi, one of the founding figures of the Islamic Republic, served as the country’s prime minister during the eight-year war with Iraq.

"Dictatorship in the name of religion is the worst kind. The most evident manifestation of a continued tyrannical attitude is the abuse of parliament and judiciary. We have completely lost hope in the judiciary," Mousavi said. [Kalam.com, 2 February]

Mousavi added he no longer believed, as he once did, that the revolution had removed all the structures that could lead to totalitarianism and dictatorship.

"Stifling the media, filling the prisons and brutally killing people who peacefully demand their rights in the streets indicate the roots of tyranny and dictatorship remain from the monarchist era... I don't believe that the revolution achieved its goals," he said.

Mousavi harshly criticized the recent execution of two young protesters. He said the government was unaware of the effective power of innocent blood and did not know that the blood of martyrs destroyed the shah’s regime.

Mousavi made the comments marking the 31^st anniversary of the Iranian revolution.

Iran Celebrates Revolution Anniversary

The celebrations of the 31^st anniversary of the revolution are being held throughout Iran. The ten day period, Ten-Day Dawn, started on 1 February, the day Ayatollah Khomeini arrived in Tehran (1979), and will end on 11 February, when the shah’s government fell, marking the end of more than 2,500 years of monarchy in the country.

Islamic Republic: Two Words Which Do Not Tell the Story

Khamanei’s Friday 19 June speech, and now the takeover of the security apparatus of the state by IRGC make it official: the “Republic” part of the Islamic Republic is no more. Even the loyal opposition is not tolerated. We have a new militarized regime.

Majma-eyeh Modaressin’s declaration that the new Ahmadinejad government is illegitimate, takes away the “Islamic” part as well. The senior religious body which was instrumental in bringing Ayatollah Khomeini to power and establishing the Islamic Republic does not accept the legitimacy of this government.

Islamic Republic; two words that do not tell the story of the current government in Iran.

Instead, we are moving toward a Bathist-type dictatorship backed by the military, a dime-a-dozen variety you can find all over the Middle East.

Fighting in Kurdistan

Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), the Kurdish faction headed by Jalal Talabani, is reporting today that Iran has resumed heavy shelling of Iraqi Kurd areas near Iranian borders.

Iran contends that the presence in the area of Kurdistan Free Life Party (PJAK), an Iranian Kurdish opposition group, is forcing it to attack the villages in Iraq Kurdistan region. The Kurdish Parliament on Tuesday condemned the shelling and called for an immediate ceasefire.

In what appears to be a coordinated move between Iran and Turkey, the Turkish forces have also attacked the Iraqi Kurdish villages. PJAK is the Iranian branch of PKK, Turkey’s radical Kurdish movement. PKK is designated as a terrorist organization by the US and the Europeans.

PJAK has been involved in a number of military operations against the Islamic Republic. PJAK claims that in the past two years they have killed more than one hundred members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) in separate actions, including general officers of the IRGC.

In November 2006, journalist Seymour Hersh of The New Yorker claimed that PJAK is receiving military training and equipment from the US military and the Israelis who want to weaken the Islamic Republic.

According to reports from Kurdistan, the recent shelling of the Kurdish villages by Iran started last Wednesday and has since intensified. A number of Kurdish villagers, among them women and children, have fled their homes in search of safe heavens.

President Bush Threatens Iran

President Bush delivering his starkest warning

against the Islamic Republic . Timesonline

President Bush today launched his strongest attack on Islamic Republic, accusing it of threatening to place the Middle East under the shadow of a nuclear holocaust. President Bush said he has authorized US military commanders in Iraq to confront Iran’s “murderous activities.”

The president accused his Iranian counterpart, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, of openly supporting violent forces within Iraq. Bush implicitly called for a regime change in Iran, calling for “an Iran whose government is accountable to its people, instead of leaders who promote terror and pursue technology that could be used to develop nuclear weapons.”

Hours after the president’s speech, US troops detained two Iranian diplomats and six members of an Iranian delegation visiting Baghdad to negotiate business contracts with Iraqi officials. They were blindfolded and handcuffed before being taken away from their hotel. Their luggage and computer equipment were also confiscated. The US military holds another five Iranian official since January. The five were arrested in the Iraqi northern city of Irbil and the US military contends that among them is the chief of operations of the Revolutionary Guards’ notorious Quds Force.

Karzai Illusions

Karzai with Ahmadinejad in Kabul today . Reuters

President Ahmadinejad arrived in Kabul today for talks with his Afghan counterpart Hamid Karzai. On the eve of his arrival, the intelligence officials in Balkh province had reported seizing 100 Iranian-made improvised explosive devices (IED) intended to be used for blowing up gas and oil installations in the region. During a press conference in Kabul, Ahmadinejad declared that Iran was not supplying Taliban with the weapons.

The warm reception given to Ahmadinejad in Kabul coupled with the claim by the Afghan intelligence officials of Iranian involvement in the shipment of the deadly IED’s to the Taliban show the complex realities facing Karzai. His government’s powerlessness to tackle many of the growing problems in Afghanistan may have created a sense of disappointment and despair for Karzai, putting him under many illusions, chief among them his belief that Iran is “a helper and a solution” to problems in Afghanistan.

Iran’s interest in the region, in the face of growing internal dissatisfaction with the government, is to keep tensions high. This would allow bullying the loyal opposition into inaction and cracking down on any dissent in the name of preserving the national unity. The Islamic Republic has used this track successfully ever since its foundation. The US hostage crisis of early days created the pretext to crush the moderates within the government and the opposition outside of it. Karzai needs to be skeptical at Ahmadinejad’s claim that the Islamic Republic’s mission in the world is to spread “justice, love and kindness.”

Attacks on Unionists

Iranian intelligence ministry agents arrested five members of Tehran's bus drivers' union after they visited the home of their imprisoned chief Mansour Ossalou. ISNA identified the detainees as Ebrahim Madadi, Yagoub Salimi, Davoud Razavi and Ghojari and Homayoun Jaberi.

Ossalou has been sentenced to four years in prison for acting against national security and to an additional year for disseminating propaganda against the Islamic Republic.

Rights group Amnesty International, the Brussels-based International Trade Union Confederation (ITUC) and the International Transport Workers' Federation held protests in European capitals on Thursday calling for his release.

They also called for the release of Mahmoud Salehi, a prominent trade unionist and former head of the bakers' union in Iran's Kordestan province, who was rearrested in April after serving previous jail terms.

On the Winds of War - Ahmadinejad’s Journey to Damascus

Ahmadinejad and Asad in Damascus. 19 July 2007. MEHR News

On 19 July, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad arrived in Damascus to meet his Syrian counterpart, Bashar Al Asad. Ahmadinejad had come to the Syrian capital 48 hours after Asad had taken the oath of office at the start of his second term as the country’s president. As customary, Ahmadinejad had brought a gift for the re-elected president. What the gift was has since become a source of speculation, denial and a call to arms.

The London-based Pan Arab daily Asharq Al Awsat, quoting an identified source close to Ahmadinejad, reported that in his meeting with Bashar, the Iranian president offered a grant of one billion dollars to Syria in return for Syria’s pledge not to start any peace talks with Israel (Asharq Al Awsat, 21 July).

Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman denied that Ahmadinejad had pledged one billion dollars in aid to Syria for purchasing weapons from Russia and North Korea (IRNA, 22 July).

And the Israelis were quick to react. Israel’s minister of strategic threats Avigdor Liebeman urged prime minister Ehud Olmert and the chairman of the opposition Binyamin Netanyahu to form a national unity government in light of the strategic threat posed by the tightening ties between Syria and Iran (Haaretz, 21 July). Yitzhaq Ben Yisra'el, a senior Knesset member from the ruling Kadima party, also urged Olmert and Netanyahu to form a “national emergency government” to deal with Iran (Ynetnews, 21 July).

Immediately after his meeting with Bashar Asad, Ahmadinejad met with Hizbollah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah and Hamas politburo chief Khaled Mishaal (IRNA, 19 July).

The speculations raised by Asharq Al Awsat, denials by Iran and a call to arms by influential Israelis, all in a span of a single weekend, show the tense atmosphere surrounding the alliance formed by Iran, Syria, Hamas and Hizbollah against Israel.

Iran’s strategy is seemingly simple: lead a coalition with Syria, Hamas and Hizbollah as members, drive the US out of the Middle East, and wipe Israel off the map. Syria’s buying into the strategy is a bit more perplexing. Bashar must feel abandoned by the Arabs and shunned by the US and the Europeans. Reliance on the Islamic Republic seems to be his only hope to regain the Golan. Hamas, now governing a land on the border of Israel, needs Iran for survival. Hizbollah, which was formed with the help of Iran’s revolutionary guards, needs Iran not only to confront Israel, but also to face an intractable domestic Lebanese front.

Iran’s strategy, however, seems to have big holes in it. To begin with, the Islamic Republic is facing one of the toughest years of its existence when it comes to matters of economy and public discontent. The world’s second biggest oil producer had to ration gasoline with a draconian measure of less than a gallon per car per day. In a public opinion poll conducted last June, 75% of the people felt they were not benefiting from the surging oil revenues (Please see 18 July entry in this blog: The Views of Iranians). One billion dollar grant to Syria will not go well at home, hence the quick denial by the government. Iran is also facing a financial crisis as a result of the growing sanctions against its banking and financial institutions. A promise of one billion dollar in cash to Syria is easier said than done.

Syria, Hamas and Hizbollah might not be all that powerful allies either. Syria, isolated in the Arab world, is not ready for a war with Israel and might actually fear an Israeli attack. The alliance with Iran could well be a defensive strategy for Damascus. Hamas has its hands full holding on to Gaza in the face of a world increasingly united against its rule. Hizbollah is not ruling Lebanon, as they expected only a year ago. The Lebanese Army is coming out of a major fight with Al Qaeda stronger in morale despite its casualties and the Sionora government is showing a renewed sense of purpose. It’s Nasrallah’s life that has become more complicated. The alliance of Iran, Syria, Hamas and Hizbollah looks much stronger on paper.

Ahmadinejad’s journey to Damascus and the summit of the four leaders should be taken very seriously. This alliance, however weak internally, needs to create tension to justify its members’ hold on their people. But heightening tension in an already tense region can be a recipe for war. What Iran needs to fear most is that creating winds of war can produce its own nightmare: a pre-emptive attack on its military and nuclear facilities by the Israelis or the Americans or both.

News from Iran

The government clampdown on dissent and its decision to ration gasoline dominated the coverage in the Iranian media. In the past few weeks the Iranian government has started a massive crack down on pro-reform press, student organizations, labor unions, former high-level government officials, Iranian-American personalities visiting the country, and the restive public. On the economy front, President Ahmadinejad rejected a proposal to allow drivers who reached their limit to purchase more fuel at a higher price. The authorities also arrested over 80 people for damaging gas stations during protests against fuel rationing. A former oil minister confirmed published reports that Iran’s oil production is rapidly depleting due to lack of foreign investment. Iran can loose all its oil export revenues by 2014 if no new investment were available to expand the oil production.

Crackdown on Dissent
· On 2 July, the government closed down the pro-reform daily Ham-Mihan and suspended the activities of the independent news agency ILNA.
· On 10 July, the government ordered the final closure of ILNA.
· On 5 July, the police special forces stormed the top-ranked Polytechnic University and arrested 11 student leaders. The student leaders have been transferred to the notorious Evin Prison.
· On 10 July, Masour Osanloo, a labor union leader, was kidnapped near his house. It is widely believed that the plain-cloth men who picked him up were the agents of the Ministry of Intelligence.
· In the past month, four Iranian-Americans personalities visiting the country have been charged with promoting velvet revolution in Iran and three of them are kept at Evin Prison.
· In May, the government arrested Hossein Mossavian, the country’s former nuclear negotiator and a close ally of former president Hashemi Rafsanjani. Mossavian has since been accused of espionage.
· On 9 July, the Intelligence Ministry announced the arrest of 20 people who allegedly were part of a spy network.
· On 27 June, authorities arrested 80 people on the charge of damaging gas stations during protests against fuel rationing.

In December, the people will elect the 8th Majlis (Iranian parliament). In June 2009, the people will elect the 10th president of the Islamic Republic. Ahmadinejad and fundamentalist groups want to hold on power in Majlis and Ahmadinejad himself wants to be reelected as president. The pro-reform press, the student leaders and union activist, the former high-level officials in Rafsanjani and Khatami administrations, including the Three Ayatollahs (Rafsanjani, Khatami and Karubi), the Iranian-American pro-reform personalities and anyone protesting against the government is now viewed as enemy. To get reelected and to keep Majlis in his camp, Ahmadinejad needs to defeat the alliance formed by the pro-reform movement. The five months left to the parliamentary elections may well prove the most challenging period for proponents of reform and democracy in Iran.

Other Domestic Storylines
· President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad decided against a proposal to allow motorists to purchase more gasoline than their rations at free market price; Ahmadinejad said doing so would push up the country’s inflation rate to unaccepted levels; he said setting a free market price for gas under the present circumstances is a “killer poison” for the country's economy; the gasoline ration of about one gallon per day per car went into effect earlier in the month; a number of officials, including the Minister of Energy, had previously said that the drivers who reached their limit would be able to purchase more fuel at a higher price.
· Iranian authorities announced the arrest of 80 persons on the charge of damaging gas stations and looting shops during protests against fuel rationing.
· Four trucks smuggling gasoline our of Iran crashed into each other and caught fire in southeastern country, killing 13 people; the trucks crashed near the Pakistan border; fuel smuggling from Iran to neighboring countries is common because the country has one of the lowest fuel prices in the region.
· Iran’s former oil minister Akbar Torkan said Iran produces four million bpd of crude oil, but without new investment, five percent of this production capacity will be gone every year; Torkan was confirming published reports that Iran was in danger of loosing its oil exports by 2014 if no new foreign investment were attracted to work in the country’s oil fields; US sanctions prohibit American and foreign companies to invest in Iranian oil and gas industry.
· A man convicted of adultery was stoned to death in Aghchekand, 124 miles west of Tehran; the spokesman for the judiciary did not elaborate on how the stoning was carried out; The execution came two weeks after the Iranian officials had delayed carrying out the sentence against Jafar Kiani and after the head of the Judiciary had said that the sentence will not be carried out; Kiani’s female companion, Mokarrameh Ebrahimi, who also was sentenced to death by stoning is still in prison.

The Nuclear Program
· IAEA Chief Mohammad ElBaradei said Iran has slowed down the expansion of its nuclear enrichment capabilities at Natanz ; Hamid Reza Haji Babaei, a member of the National Security Committee of Majlis (Iranian parliament), denied reports that Iran had slowed down the pace of its nuclear activities at Natanz facility; Haji Babaei said Iran had not agreed with anyone to reduce its uranium enrichment activities; he added that uranium enrichment was regarded as the red line for Iran and that all previous nuclear activities are still continuing and at the same pace.
· Ali Asghar Soltanieh, Iran’s ambassador to IAEA, said that Iran expects that the new round of talks between EU foreign policy chief and Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator will lead to conclusive results; Soltanieh welcomed EU “new trend” in favoring negotiations on Iran’s nuclear standoff.
· President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad rejected any talks of uranium enrichment suspension as part of an agreement with EU to head off a showdown with the West over the country’s nuclear program.
· An IAEA delegation, headed by the agency’s deputy chief, arrived in Tehran.

Regional Storylines
· The leader of an Al Qaida in Iraq warned Iran in a new audiotape to stop supporting the Shia in Iraq; Al Qaida warned Iran would face a ''severe war'' if it continued its support of the Shia.
· Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini said that the five Iranians diplomats detained by US forces in Iraq complained about poor conditions during their meeting with Iranian ambassador to Iraq; Hosseini said the detainees have access to minimum facilities and were under psychological pressure by their US captors; Ambassador Hassan Kazemi Qumi and three other Iranian diplomats had a five-hour meeting with the detainees for the first time since their arrest.
· Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini denied published reports that Iran had played a big role in Hamas's seizure of Gaza from Palestinian security forces.
· Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini said the three islands of Greater Tunb, Lesser Tunb and Abu-Musa are an inseparable and eternal part of the soil of the Islamic Republic of Iran; Hosseini criticized the statement issued at the conclusion of the Gulf Cooperation Council in Riyadh backing UAE’s claims on the three islands.