Kerry's coalition

The United States Secretary of State has made clear that his country has no intention of working with Tehran in defeating Islamic State (IS) in Iraq and Syria. 

by Paul Iddon

Kerry and Zarif, July 2014 / Public Domain

Mr. John Kerry has been busy in recent days and weeks building his anti-IS regional coalition. As of writing ten regional countries (out of about forty in total) have "agreed to do their share in the comprehensive fight" against the terror group to help the United States to "degrade and destroy" it. Iran is not welcome in this coalition since Kerry views such a participation as "inappropriate" given the Iranian regimes continued support of Syria's Assad and the Hezbollah which is also fighting in Syria.

In his op-ed in The New York Times late last month Kerry said he seeks to loosely model his coalition against IS on the one built to confront Saddam Hussein after his annexation of Kuwait in 1990 – obviously it will be of a significantly different nature considering IS is a much more irregular force than the conventional Iraqi Army circa 1991. Realpolitik played a major role in that coalition. Especially whereby Syria's welcome inclusion was concerned. Back then Saddam's Baathist rival in Damascus essentially got a freehand in annexing Lebanon and brutally suppressing and executing at least 500 Lebanese soldiers in October 1990. A largely overlooked, overshadowed, and consequently largely forgotten, incident.

The present coalition essentially consists of Europe and the authoritarian Gulf monarchies (Turkey has refused to permit US aircraft based on its territory to attack IS from there fearing IS retribution will be taken against Turkish diplomats that group is still holding hostage in Iraq) against IS. Support of the Gulf states was obviously necessitated by the fact that US jets fly from bases situated in Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE. These states may even participate in strikes against IS forces. But what was interesting was their recent pledge that they will crackdown upon any funding reaching IS from their home turf so they aren't essentially hosting the financiers of those the US is targeting.

The Iranian regime has accused these Gulf states of supporting jihadi elements in Syria. Conservative elements within the regimes establishment say that Iran does not wish to cooperate but that such a cooperation isn't possible. Iran's armed forces deputy chief of staff who told Iran's Fars News that, "The reason for this is that Iran stands against [IS], but America created [IS]." However Ayatollah Rafsanjani has left the door open to the prospect of limited cooperation aimed at IS when he recently said it's possibly provided "America shows honesty."

Iran has of course taken an interest on what is going on essentially in its backyard, that doesn't necessarily mean that this regimes conduct in the region is exemplary or even in all cases justified – such as its support for dangerous sectarian militias. It did however support the Iraqi Kurds by providing them with arms when all the United States and its allies were providing was repetitive and unoriginal rhetoric. As Massoud Barzani pointed out, they acted at a time when everyone else was just talking about acting.

That's another element which hasn't been very widely discussed regarding potential allies that are actually on the ground in Syria to coordinate operations against IS there. Not the Free Syrian Army but Syria's Kurds. Sadly many of the Kurds fighting in defense of their homeland in Rojava are considered by the United States to be terrorists given their proximity to the PKK group. Which is a pity because they are an organized force on the ground that have a record of fighting IS. At the very least coordinating with them should be considered and the United States' stance towards that group reconsidered and reevaluated.

Israel's friend in Erbil

Citadel of Hewlêr (Erbil), Iraqi Kurdistan

Iran's Foreign Ministry recently criticized the Kurdish president for calling for an independent Kurdish state in Iraqi Kurdistan. Israel's premier Benjamin Netanyahu on the other hand endorsed the idea.

Turkey is also against the idea. It has made a historic move in May when it began to export independently oil from Iraqi Kurdistan to international markets. A move that deeply frustrated Nouri al-Maliki's government in Baghdad.

Turkey's Deputy Prime Minister Bulent Arinc downplayed Israeli Prime Ministers call for an independent Kurdish state when he said, "There is no doubt that Netanyahu represents his government … but the fact that he made this comment does not mean that it is going to come true. There is a state in Iraq with its constitution."

Wadie Abu Nassar a former Israeli political science lecturer explained the reasoning behind Netanyahu's support of Kurdish independence. He said it's "an attempt by Netanyahu to deliver the message that Israel is able to play in the backyards of regional powerhouses Turkey and Iran."

Israel has long had relations with the Barzani clan in Iraqi Kurdistan who they supported in the 1960's and 1970's when the Iraqi Kurds were fighting against the Baath in Baghdad. They were betrayed when the last Shah of Iran opted to stop the support him and the United States were giving to the Kurdish fighters they had helped to fight the Baath in order for him to make a deal with Iraq over the border disputes they would later fight a brutal war over.

Abu Nassar points out that Israel was unable to strengthen these connections with the Kurds to make a strong strategic alliance when Iraq was ruled by Saddam Hussein. "But after the 2003 US occupation," he reminds us, "the Americans seemed to have indirectly contributed to strengthening relations between Israel and the Kurds of northern Iraq. Since then, we have been hearing about commercial and security relations between Israel and the Kurdish region."

Nassar also makes clear that an independent Kurdish state in Iraqi Kurdistan will eventually "also demand the inclusion of other parts of Syria, Iran and Turkey." (Middle East Eye, June 30 2014)

PKK Fighters Begin Pullout from Turkey

Armed Rebels Resettling in Iraqi Kurdistan 

The Kurdistan Workers Party, or PKK, today started withdrawal of its fighters from Turkey. The PKK’s imprisoned leader, Abdullah Ocalan, had declared a cease-fire in March after holding talks with senior Turkish leaders to end a nearly 30-year insurgency that has cost tens of thousands of lives. PKK’s fought for autonomy and greater rights for the Kurdish people who make up nearly 20 percent of Turkey’s population.

PKK fighters will be resettled in the mountainous regions of the autonomous Iraqi Kurdistan. They have, however, rejected a Turkish demand to lay down arms before leaving the Turkish territory. The PKK's commander, Murat Karayilan, said the group won't disarm until Turkey enacts democratic reforms increasing the rights of Kurds and introduces an amnesty for all imprisoned rebels, including Ocalan, the Associated Press reported.

Associated Press, quoting Gultan Kisinak, one of the leaders of PKK, reported that the first group of rebel fighters, furthest away from the border with Iraqi Kurdistan, started their movement toward the border this morning. The fighters nearest the border keep watch and ensure secure passage of the rebels and would leave last.

Photo credit: PKK rebels begin to withdraw from Turkey (AFP/BBC)

Ford and the Shah

Jimmy Carter is often the one scrutinized (rightfully in a lot of cases) in hindsight over the rapid downfall of the Shah during his time in office, this however has clearly overshadowed his predecessors (short as his tenure was) inability to take a meaningful stand against Iraqi Baathists during Saddam Hussein's rise to power.


President Ford with the Shah of Iran as
Kissinger watches on.

The Iraqi Kurds have come along way in Iraq since the 1960's with the current President Talabani himself a Kurd who instead of opting for an independent autonomous Kurdish state in the north of Iraq worked tirelessly in creating a united democratic and secular state out of a country on the brink of collapse.

The Kurds had fought a war with Iraq throughout most of the 1960's and in 1970 both sides ceased fighting after they had come to a stalemate and attempted to initiate a peace agreement, which lasted a mere four years before Iraq again in 1974 began a new offensive.

This was around the time Gerald Ford became president of the United States following Richard Nixon's resignation over the Watergate scandal, around this time the United States evidently had a longstanding warm relationship with the Pahlavi dynasty in Iran whom it supported in his arming and financing of the Iraqi Kurds who were being driven close to the Iranian border by the Iraqi Army.

However this campaign of arming and financing the Kurds in their struggle for autonomy was short lived as in 1975 the Shah of Iran signed a separate peace agreement with Saddam in Algiers which became the 1975 Algiers Agreement that was to settle border disputes (in particular the Iraqi claim over the oil rich Khuzestan region in the south of Iran).

The Shah agreed to stop supporting the Kurdish rebellion and the United States terminated its flow of arms and finance, Kurdish leaders fled as fighters surrendered en masse, 5,000 Kurdish rebels died in vain as their rebellion was rapidly crushed.

Saddam would later violate the Algiers agreement when he launched a large scale invasion of the Khuzestan region in 1980 a year after the Iranian Revolution had overthrown the Shah and brought on the longest and one of the most brutal wars of the 20th century which would not end until 1988 and also saw the Iraqi Kurds subjected to a genocidal campaign known as the Al-Anfal campaign which saw thousands of Kurds indiscriminately gassed in the infamous Halabja gas attack.

President Ford was only in office for two years but his dealings with Iran (among other things) had terrible long lasting effects on the region.

News from Iran

The unexpected resignation of Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator, Ali Larijani, and its implications on the on-going negotiations with IAEA and the EU dominated the coverage in Iranian media. The pro-reform press saw the resignation as a sign of disarray in Ahmadinejad’s administration over the nuclear policy. Even some conservatives voiced shock and displeasure at reported forced resignation of Larijani.

The Iranian government announced its nuclear policies will not change and it will not accept any proposals to suspend uranium enrichment. That’s precisely what EU had in mind. A spokeswoman for EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana said EU will reintroduce its 2006 proposal offering economic incentives for Iran in lieu of suspension of uranium enrichment.

President Bush warned of World war III if Iran goes nuclear, a remark called “warlike rhetoric” by Iranian government. Iran’s IRGC warned of firing 11,000 missiles into US targets in the region if the US launched a military attack on Iran.

Iran Nuclear Program

· Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani resigned; the resignation came days before an all-important meeting scheduled between Larijan and EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana; Solana was to report back to EU on Iran’s adherence to UNSC resolutions; Deputy Foreign Minister Saeed Jalili replaced Larijani.
· Iran’s government spokesman Gholam Hossein Elham said Iranian nuclear policies will not change as a result of replacement of individuals; Elham said the policies are defined and announced by the supreme leader and president; Elham said Iran would reject any proposals requiring suspension of uranium enrichment program.
· Iran’s new chief nuclear negotiator, Saeed Jalili, accompanied by former negotiator, Ali Larijani, met in Rome with EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana; Solana described the talks as “constructive”; Solana’s spokeswoman said EU foreign policy chief will once again offer Iran EU’s 2006 proposal on nuclear program; EU offer included economic incentives for Iran in lieu of suspension of uranium enrichment by Iran.
· Israeli Premier Ehud Olmert made a surprise visit to Moscow to discuss Iran’s nuclear program; Olmert is pushing for more sanctions and military confrontation with Iran; Israeli president Shimon Peres said Iran was seeking to develop nuclear weapons for the purpose of “war and death.”
· British Prime Minister Gordon Brown said a new round of sanctions should be imposed on Iran; Brown added he believed sanctions worked.
· Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini said Russia and Iran agreed at highest levels to complete work at Iran’s Bushehr nuclear reactor; Hosseini told reporters, however, Iran could not announce the “good news” as promised on definitive timetable for completion of Bushehr.

US-Iran Relations

· President George Bush warned of World War III if Iran goes nuclear; President Bush said world leaders must prevent the Islamic Republic from getting nuclear weapons if they are interested in avoiding World War III; Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman said World War III warning endangers international peace; the spokesman called President Bush’s remark “'warlike rhetoric.”
· Vice President Dick Cheney said Iran is a growing obstacle to peace in the Middle East; Cheney said US will not allow it to obtain a nuclear weapon; he added US and the international community will not stand by as a “terror-supporting” Iran fulfils its ambitions.
· Islamic Revolution Guards Corp (IRGC) Brig. Gen. Mahmoud Chaharbaghi, commander of IRGC missile force, said Iran will fire 11,000 rockets into US military bases in the first minute of a US attack on Iran; Gen. Chaharbaghi said IRGC has identified US targets and can respond immediately to a US attack.
· US Admiral Michael Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said there is more than enough US reserve to respond militarily in Iran; Adm. Mullen said the military will do what the national leadership wanted to do.
· US said no missile defense system needed in Europe if Iran drops nuclear program; Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Fried indicated Washington would change its approach to developing the missile shield opposed by Russia if Iran were to suspend uranium enrichment.

Major Domestic Storylines

· Iran’s President Ahmadinejad unexpectedly cut short his two-day trip to Armenia by one day and returned to Tehran on 23 October; Armenian government spokesman said Ahmadinejad’s early return was due to internal developments in Tehran; Ahmadinejad's advisor Samareh Hashemi denied the visit had been cut short.
· Students at Amir Kabir University in Tehran demonstrated to protest jail terms for student leaders; three student activists received sentences of up to three years for publishing articles deemed insulting to Islam.
· The Sunday Times reported British Special Forces (SAS) have crossed into Iran several times in recent months; SAS was reported to engage IRGC’s Quds Force inside Shalamcheh border with Iraq.
· Former British Premier Tony Blair called Iran the state of “extremist Islamic ideology”; Blair accused Iran of backing and financing terror in pursuit of destabilizing countries in the region; the former PM warned against any retreat in the face of a situation similar to “rising fascism” in 1920s; “there is a tendency to believe they are as they are because we have provoked them and if we left them alone they would leave us alone,” Blair said; Blair warned extremist Islamists have no intention of leaving the West alone.

Major Regional Storylines

· Iran urged dialogue between Turkey and Iraq over Kurds; foreign ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini said Iran prefers negotiated and political settlement to problems of northern Iraq; Hosseini said any solution that creates tension will only worsen the situation in northern Iraq.
· Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini rejected British accusations of Iranian involvement in shipment of arms to the Taliban.
· Afghan foreign minister Rangeen Dadfar Spanta said there was no evidence Iran was supplying weapons to Taliban; US commander in Afghanistan, Gen. Dan McNeill, said a convoy of explosives intercepted in Afghanistan had arrived from Iran; Gen. McNiell added Iranian military must have been aware of the arms shipment.
· Iranian President Ahmadinejad called on Arab countries not to take part in Annapolis peace conference; Ahmadinejad is the conference is an “Israeli trap” (3); he added US and Israel would take advantage of countries attending Annapolis.
· Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini said Iran, Russia and Kazakhstan offered different plans at Caspian Summit for establishing a regional security force for Caspian Sea; Hosseini said Iran’s plan deal with confidence building and stability in Caspian; Russia offered the establishment of CASFOR regional force.
· Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini said Iran’s treaties with former Soviet Union did not explicitly divide Caspian Sea equally between the two countries; Hossieni said negotiations for Caspian’s legal status will continue among the five Caspian neighbors.

Iraq Criticizes Iran’s Shelling of Kurds

Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari today strongly criticized Iranian artillery barrages against Kurdish positions in border areas (AP). Zebari warned Iran that if the shelling continues it will negatively affect relations between the two countries.

The recent shelling of Kurdish villages by Iran started last week and has since intensified. (Please see yesterday’s entry on this blog.)

News from Iran

The growing tensions between the US and Iran and the regional security issues dominated the coverage in the Iranian media. The influential former president Hashemi Rafsanjani warned the nation that “exceptional conditions” exists for the country, with the US, the UK and the Arab states of the Persian Gulf uniting against Iran. The influential conservative daily Keyhan characterized US-Iran talks as “fruitless” and the commander of the revolutionary guards called upon the Moslems to increase their vigilance against the US. The Iranian foreign minister denounced US arms sales to Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states as “mercenary in nature.” On the nuclear front, President Ahmadinejad said that accepting Iran’s uranium enrichment program is the only way to resolve the nuclear standoff with Iran.

US-Iran Relations

· Iran’s influential former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani warned the nation that “exceptional conditions” exists for the country; Rafsanjani said that the common stance adopted by the US president and the British prime minister against Iran during their recent meeting and the visits by the US state and defense secretaries to the region to “strengthen the regional countries against Iran” are manifestations of these “exceptional conditions” in the country; Rafsanjani added that during his presidency friendly relationships with the Arab state of the Persian Gulf were established and they were not uniting against Iran.
· Iran’s foreign minister Manouchehr Mottaki said US has too many problems in Iraq to be able to attack Iran; Mottaki said 170,000 US soldiers in Iraq have been unable to guarantee neither their own safety nor the security of Iraq; Mottaki dismissed any future UN sanction against Iran and said they would not change Iran’s mind to continue its nuclear program.
· Iran’s secretary of supreme national security council Ali Larijani said Iran is in no need for US security guarantees; Larijani said Iran will exercise its rights, including its nuclear rights, regardless if US likes it or not; he added the US does not want Iranians to have the nuclear technology; Larijani chided the US for making a strategic mistake on stopping Iran’s nuclear program because Iran has already acquired the nuclear technology.
· The influential conservative daily Keyhan called the recent negotiations between Iran and US on Iraqi security as “fruitless”; the editorial on 25 July characterized the US as “obstructionist” and “irresponsible”; sensible talks do not get through to the occupiers of Iraq, the editorial concluded.

Iran Nuclear Program

· Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said accepting Iran’s legal rights to enrich uranium is the only solution to the nuclear standoff; They [the West] should come and say this is your right, Ahmadinejad added; he said that security council resolutions against Iran over its nuclear program are illegal; he said the court of public opinion in the world is in favor of Iran and the public opinion has the final say on the world stage today.
· Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani said that enriching uranium is like “breathing” for Iran; Larijani said Iran will not halt the spinning centrifuges at Natanz enrichment plant.
· Iran’s foreign minister Manouchehr Mottaki said new sanctions against Iran would mean “confrontation” with Iran; Mottaki said that Iran would be tempted to do “illegal” things if a new round of sanctions is imposed on the country;
· The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors visited heavy-water reactor under construction at Arak; the inspection took place on 30 July and lasted five hours.
· Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini said Iran has no debts to Russia for the construction of Bushehr nuclear reactor; he rejected Russian claims that Iran has failed to fulfill its financial commitments on Bushehr project; Hosseini added that it would be in the interest of Russia not to waste time and to speed up the plant completion.

Domestic Storylines

· Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Iran is in the process of building satellites; he said Iran must have its own satellite in the orbit; “We have to build it. We are doing it right now,” Ahmadinejad said.
· President Ahmadinejad said that fuel consumption in the country was much more than the global average and rationing gasoline was a necessity; he said that gasoline rationing was favored by Majlis (the parliament) and the government decided to implement it; he said the rationing program has resulted in a drop in gasoline consumption of 23 million liter (6 million gallon) per day; the program limits the gasoline consumption to slightly less than a gallon per car per day.
· President Ahmadinejad said he has not yet thought about running for re-election; responding to a reporter’s question on the unpopularity of the government’s gasoline rationing program and the risks to his re-election chances, Ahmadinejad said what he says and what he does is not meant to win votes.
· Iranian judiciary spokesman Ali Reza Jamshidi said two Iranian Kurdish journalists have been sentenced to death for being "enemies of God"; Adnan Hassanpour and Abdolvahed "Hiva" Botimar were sentenced to death on July 16 by a revolutionary court in Marivan, in Iran's northeastern Kordestan province.

Regional Storylines

· Iranian foreign minister Manouchehr Mottaki denounced US arms sales to Saudi Arabia and other Arab states of the Persian Gulf as “mercenary” in nature; Mottaki said that the sales is to help US defense contractors from going bankrupt; Mottaki said “the White House politicians are major stakeholders in big arms companies trying to abuse their remaining months in office to whip up a delusional atmosphere, bring big profits to those arms companies and present the outcome as a move to enhance regional stability and security”; Iranian Defense Minister Brigadier General Mohammad Mustafa Najar also accused the US of seeking to “spark an arms race in a bid to keep their giant weapon production companies away from the danger of bankruptcy.”
· The Commander of Islamic Revolution Guards Corp. (IRGC) Major General Yahya Rahim Safavi said Muslims should increase their vigilance against the US; Gen. Safavi said Iraq is becoming another Vietnam for the US.
· Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini said if the US abides by the outcome of US-Iran talks on Iraq and fulfills its commitments, it must help bolster the Maleki government; Hosseini expressed concerned over recent development to weaken the Iraqi government and pledged Iran’s full support for Maleki.
· Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini denied published reports that Iran is promoting violence in Basra; UK Consul in Basra, Richard Jones had accused Iran of promoting violence to hinder UK plan to hand in the city’s security to the Iraqis.
· Iranian speaker of parliament, Gholam Haddad Adel, said the victory of Hezbollah over Israel belongs to the entire Moslem world; Adel wished Hezbollah “greater victories in future fight against Zionism.”
· Iran’s influential conservative daily Keyhan, commenting on the recent elections results in Turkey, wrote that Iran’s own Islamic revolution inspired the wave of Islamism in Turkey and in the entire region; Keyhan added that the “green revolution” in the Middle East is superseding the Western-inspired velvet revolutions that took place elsewhere; the reformist daily Aftab Yazd commenting on the same election results criticized Keyhan and the government for not understanding that the victory by Islamic Justice and Development Party (AKP) does not represent victory of Islamism, Aftab Yazd wrote that AKP is committed to the country’s “general secular framework” and although their leaders are personally practicing Moslems but they have accepted the secular nature of the Turkish state.