Misunderstanding Munich

Obama is not Chamberlain, Lausanne is not Munich and Iran isn't Nazi Germany.

by Paul Iddon

Neville Chamberlain waving Munich Agreement, 1938.

A recent article on Slate discussed a 2008 interview in which an American senator adamantly argued that U.S. President Barack Obama was like Neville Chamberlain vis-á-vis Iran, even though he did not actually know who Chamberlain was. The short article concluded that Munich analogies for modern day politics and events “needs to be taken into a bunker with Eva Braun and shot.”

This scribbler loves historical comparisons and believes that any analogy to Munich should only be used sparingly, if ever, given the magnitude and significance that event has in the history of the 20th century. In accordance with this firm-held belief I believe that comparing Obama to Chamberlain and contending that the recent deal over Iran's nuclear program is the equivalent to Chamberlain's appeasement of Adolf Hitler and ceding to him the Sudetenland, when the Führer was on the ascent to conquering most of Europe, is fatally flawed, not to mention overly simplistic.

For one thing Iran wasn't necessarily appeased. Yes it gets to keep parts of its nuclear program but it is clear that the U.S. is ceding much less to Iran than Iran is ceding to it in order to get some of the economic sanctions leveled against it lifted. It appears clear that many of the wide-ranging sanctions on Iran are impediments and obstacles, not assets, to welcome bottom-up political change, in the long-term, to the present order in Iran. Furthermore, the salient distinction for anyone who knows anything about Munich is the fact that the United States is tremendously more powerful militarily than Iran. The opposite was the case with the United Kingdom and Nazi Germany in 1938. Also, don't forget that Germany was appeased and allowed to rearm substantially before Chamberlain became Prime Minister (the Anglo-German Naval Agreement was in 1935, Chamberlain became Prime Minister two years later) and when it became self-evident that appeasement wouldn't quell Hitler's ambitions to conquer Europe it was Chamberlain's Britain, along with France, which warned Germany that if it would go to war over Poland if Germany invaded it. And indeed it was that September 1939 invasion of Poland which sparked the wider war between the UK and its allies on the one side, and Germany on the other. The rest, as the saying goes, is history.

Merely implying that the United States is a weaker power militarily than Iran today is risible. Also, the notion that it is appeasing it and will ever let it, especially under this regime, become anything more than a nuclear “threshold” state which could potentially threaten Israel or its regional allies is also extremely doubtful. A war against Iran will likely serve to empower the regime, do great damage to the country, and probably see to the population suffer tremendously as a result. This regime, remember, cemented its hold power following Saddam Hussein's 1980 invasion of western Iran and the Ayatollah Khomeini's subsequent counter-offensive into Iraq in mid-1982. Another war will likely see that regime further empowered, the Revolutionary Guards garner even more economic clout and power and the Iranian people as a whole weakened further and further rendered unable to determine the trajectory their ship-of-state is taking them. Surely a deal which will see Iran prevented from becoming a nuclear power would be a much better outcome. Especially if one really does care about Iran and its people but isn't enamored, to put it mildly, by the ruling regime and its various actions and policies at home and abroad.

EU to Expand Sanctions Against Iran

The European Union joined the US, Britain and Canada in expanding sanctions against Iran. The EU agreed in principle to sanction some 200 Iranian companies, organizations and individuals for the role in development of the country’s nuclear program. The decision needs to be formally approved by EU foreign ministers during their meeting on 1 December. European companies will be banned from doing business with the listed firms and organizations, while individuals will be subject to asset freezes and visa bans.

The EU action comes a day after the US named Iran as an area of “primary money laundering concern,” a step designed to dissuade non-US banks from dealing with the country. Britain and Canada have also banned all its financial institutions from doing business with Iran.

The expanded sanctions do not target Iran’s oil exports, the country’s driving force of economic activities and growth and its main source of hard currency. The banking sanctions, however, are expected to raise the cost of financial transactions for the country substantially and disrupt the normal flow of commerce, at a time when Iran is facing serious economic and political issues internally.

Republican contenders on US action against Iran

Herman Cain & Ron Paul

"One thing you can know is if we elect Barack Obama, Iran will have a nuclear weapon. If you elect me as the next president, they will not have a nuclear weapon."

-- Mitt Romney

"There are a number of ways to be smart about Iran, and a few ways to be stupid. The (Obama) administration skipped all the ways to be smart."

-- Newt Gingrich

The eight competing Republican candidates for next years US Presidential elections debated what US foreign policy should be, in particular with regards to Iran.

Mitt Romney has vowed that he would stop obtaining a nuclear weapon through a preemptive military strike.

On the other hand Herman Cain has stated that the proper and only way to effectively stop Iran is through economic sanctions.

Congressman Ron Paul has aptly stated that "it's not worthwhile to go to war."

Major Powers Reject Tehran Agreement

The major powers of the so-called Vienna Group-- the US, Russia and France, today dismissed the Iranian proposal to swap 1,200kg of its low enriched uranium (LEU) for higher enriched reactor fuel. The Iranian proposal was based on the agreement reached in Tehran between Iran, Brazil and Turkey, the so-called Tehran Agreement. The three major powers said that unlike the original plan drawn up eight months ago, the new swap proposal would leave Iran with enough enriched uranium to make a nuclear weapon. They also raised objections to a series of questions within the Iranian proposal that would in effect stall any negotiations on the key issues involving the Iranian nuclear program.

The IAEA confirmed receipt of the three-nation response and said it would pass it to Tehran.

The UN Security Council is in session now, and it is expected to pass a new sanctions resolution against Iran.

Mahan Abedin's Perspective on the Rigi Arrest Operation

In today's Asia Times Online, there is a piece written by Mahan Abedin titled Iran's spies show how it's done, detailing aspects of Iran's arrest operation of Rigi. It's well worth the read. Excerpts:

The imagery - and the concomitant political message - was compelling. The image of a young man being surrounded by balaclava-clad security officers by the side of a small commercial plane was designed to send the strongest possible message to Western intelligence services, their political masters and the Western public in general. If the West led by the mighty United States has failed in its nearly nine-year pursuit of al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden and his deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri, embattled Iran managed to get its man with minimal political and economic cost.

Aside from frustrating American subversion efforts in Iran's southeast, the capture of the Jundallah leader sends an unmistakable message that in the intelligence wars of the Middle East, the Islamic Republic of Iran has once again seized the initiative. The repercussions of this will be felt across all spheres and at all levels, boosting Iran's diplomatic and political posture in the region, and thus making the country less vulnerable to American and Israeli bullying.

[...]

The Islamic Republic prides itself on having efficient and adaptive security and intelligence services. Iranian officials often cite the successful experience of these agencies in countering a broad range of security and intelligence threats, including terrorism by left-wing and secessionist groups and intense espionage and subversion activities by Western intelligence services, over the past 30 years to underscore their skills and capabilities. It seems that the full gamut of these capabilities was deployed against Jundallah and its local allies in Iran and Pakistan to great effect, to the extent that the group is now for all intents and purposes decapitated and probably a spent force.

[...]

Iranian intelligence had been monitoring Abdulmalik Rigi round the clock since August 2009, but moving against him was difficult due to strong American backing and the fear of exposing invaluable methods and agents.

But the major suicide bombing on October 18, 2009, which targeted a conference hall in the Pishin area of Sistan and Balochistan where senior Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) commanders were hosting a reconciliation meeting with local tribal elders, killing dozens of IRGC officers, including the deputy commander of the Guards' land forces, forced a decisive move against Rigi.

[...]

Security sources in Tehran are keen to highlight Abdulmalik Rigi's jet-set lifestyle, describing constant travel between Dubai in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Islamabad, Kabul and Central Asian capitals since early 2006.

[...]

In any event, security sources in Tehran tell Asia Times Online that they have "massive" amounts of information and documents in their possession that link Jundallah to the CIA and specialized branches of the United States military operating in Pakistan and Afghanistan. They also claim that the CIA had prior knowledge of the suicide bombing in Pishin in October (which was a massive blow against the IRGC) but there is an ongoing debate within security circles in Tehran as to whether the Americans had actively instigated the terrorist attack.

The outcome of this debate may well have serious repercussions, possibly prompting IRGC Qods force retaliation against American secret agents operating in Pakistan and Afghanistan. The IRGC Qods force is believed to have identified every noteworthy component of American intelligence activity in the region and the Qods force has the capability to strike a deadly blow against American intelligence assets in the region and beyond.

[...]

By any standard, Abdulmalik Rigi's arrest is a major success for the Islamic Republic's intelligence services. This dramatic operation has boosted the morale of Islamic Republic loyalists throughout the Middle East and caused considerable dismay and embarrassment to Iran's Western enemies.

[...]

Rigi's arrest once again tip[s] the balance of confidence in favor of the Iranians, especially since, unlike Mabhouh's assassination [by Israel], the operation was carried out with flawless precision and efficiency and moreover it was neither immoral nor did it violate any international laws.

On New Sanctions- The Iran View

By Mark Pyruz

That there will be a cost to pay for maintaining a legalist position toward its nuclear program, the Islamic Republic of Iran's leadership understand full well. From previous experiences with the West where the West has failed to deliver and continually moved the nuclear goalposts, they realize that it is nuclear rights and, to an extent, their very sovereignty that is at issue here. When one frames the issue in real Iranian terms, the Iranian position is well understood and predictable. Dennis Ross himself has written on taking advantage of this, and on purposely advancing an offer of false engagement that is intended to be rejected, in order to boost an anti-Iran agenda that deprives Iran of its nuclear rights, and moves forward elements of economic warfare to be directed against the Islamic Republic. This is a matter of public record, which everyone has read including the Iranians.

A considerable amount of effort is being undertaken by the US State Department, to further isolate Iran and advance this anti-Iran agenda. One wonders how a sincere effort of US engagement by President Obama toward Iran would fare if a similar level of effort were undertaken beyond that of an abrupt take-it-or-leave-it offer, comparable to the exertion of the USG's current anti-Iran efforts.

That the USG will ultimately succeed toward this latest anti-Iran effort is to be expected. But success this time around is also costing America, in terms of its leadership role on these related issues. The 118 member Non-Aligned Movement is behind the Islamic Republic of Iran's right to nuclear power, and the double standard policies exhibited by US policy is not being lost on rising regional powers, such as Turkey, China and Brazil. While these takeaways may appear minor for the US compared to the level of economic sacrifice the Iranians are willing to accept in order to retain their nuclear rights and sovereignty, nevertheless this has a cumulative and enduring effect on US world standing.

The Islamic Republic of Iran remains a revolutionary nation. Issues of rights and sovereignty shared by nations of the developing world make up elements of this revolutionary personality, and a shared cause such as the nuclear rights of developing nations allows revolutionary Iran to once again exhibit moral courage on the world stage, in the face of obvious double standard and hypocrisy. For the leadership of the Islamic Republic of Iran, this is of considerable importance, in addition to the very real advantages of developing an indigenous nuclear industry. Toward this endeavor, they appear to have the majority support of the Iranian people.

Russia warns the US not to attack Iran

Following comments made by General Nikolai Makarov yesterday about a possible US attack on Iran, Russia is warning the US not to attack stating it's concerned over the consequences of such actions.

Russias top military commander: US could strike Iran

Russia's top military commander General Nikolai Makarov states that after finishing it's missions in Iraq and Afghanistan the United States may attack Iran.

Another year of sanctions for Iran

Obama renewed another year of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, he was quoted as saying:

"Our relations with Iran have not yet returned to normal."

This follows President Ahmadinejad hailing the Western retreat on the nuclear issue, he has made these two statements last Wednesday:

"We have now entered a stage of cooperation. At the moment, one of the key issues is Iran's participation in projects such as the international [nuclear] fuel bank or reactor and plant construction,"

"There is no more talk of suspension. We have reached a stage where we are cooperating, on a high level, with other countries that have the technology through the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA),"

Mixed messages are coming from both Washington and Tehran, Obama continuing the economic sanctions despite his apparent overtures with Tehran, while Tehran is repeatedly stating that it will not give up the Iranian nation's legitimate nuclear rights under Western pressure.

Iran: One Cool Nuclear Negotiator

by Mark Pyruz

There is a mistaken impression in the West that Iran perceives itself the focus of an international demand to relinquish the majority of its low-enriched uranium, in order to prevent its imminent manufacturing of a nuclear weapon. For their part, the Iranian perspective is completely different.

Contrary to Western perceptions, the current deal put forward by the E3+3/P5+1 is not the initial proposal for refueling the Tehran Research Reactor (TRR). That initial proposal was publicly put forward last September in New York by President Ahmadinejad, where he offered to purchase medium enriched uranium from existing nuclear fuel suppliers (including the United States). Subsequently, at the Geneva 2 talks, the West and Russia provided a counter-proposal that Iran ship 1200 kilograms of its LEU to Russia by January 15, to be converted to medium-enriched uranium, whereupon France would fashion the product into fuel rods for shipment back to Iran. This complicated arrangement was explored "in principle" in Geneva and later worked on still further in subsequent talks held in Vienna. At the conclusion of those talks, a target date for a decision by all powers present was put forward by ElBaradei for the following Friday. However, the Iranians understood this date as a time frame, and surely anything but a demand. Throughout all of this, it's important to realize that Iran is not looking at this process in terms of diplomatic demand. Rather, it views this as an ongoing negotiation process being managed by the IAEA.

This nuclear proposal has since been formally introduced to Iran's decision makers. Predictably, there are quite a few who find the offer highly dubious. For starters, there is a very poor track record for both France and Russia, in regards to these two countries living up to their word in previous nuclear agreements with Iran. Thirty years ago Iran put up more than $1 billion dollars to help build a French nuclear reactor in return for access to that reactor's fuel. To date, the French have never delivered any amount of fuel- not one iota. Likewise, roughly fifteen years ago Iran signed a contract with a Russian firm to complete the Bushehr nuclear facility. What's transpired since then is an endless stream of broken promises, missed schedules and arbitrary work stoppages. To this day, Bushehr remains less than fully operational. These are the two partners Iran is expected to do business with in this proposed nuclear deal. In addition to this, there are legitimate concerns that while Iran's LEU stock is away, in further nuclear negotiations down the road, the West may try to leverage its returned fuel by imposing additional conditions for its release.

Details are sketchy of Iran's decision making, but we can make out three Iranian nuclear proposals (to the West's one) put forward in this ongoing negotiation process:

1) Iran offers to purchase the nuclear fuel required for TRR from an existing supplier.
2) Iran offers to further enrich its own LEU stock into fuel stock inside Iran for TRR, under the strict technical supervision of the IAEA (a benefit stipulated under the terms of the NPT), possibly in partnership with another country.
3) Iran may be offering to accept the current deal offered by the West with some modifications, such as transferring its LEU stock in installments. Also, Iran may yet accept the current deal as it now stands.

It's interesting to note that at this point in time, certain Western officials and media outlets are depicting this ongoing negotiation process in a dire and negative light; while in stark contrast, President Ahmadinejad publicly praises the effort. Right now, the ball seems somewhere near mid-court. One thing appears likely: it will not be the Iranians that decide to break off negotiations, if that's how this ultimately plays out.

One item of significance which seems absent from Iran's internal public debate is any talk of rejecting further negotiation based on the recent Jundallah terrorist attack in southeastern Iran. Iran maintains substantiated claims of Western support for Jundallah (see here and here), yet the Iranians haven't so much as missed a beat in their continued engagement with the nuclear negotiation process. Just imagine for a second if the United States, France or the United Kingdom had suffered a terrorist attack with any sort of linkage back to the Islamic Republic of Iran; how that would have affected the nuclear talks! Nor did the Iranians wilt under the West's bombastic assertions over its disclosure of the Qom pilot enrichment facility.

No, the West is being shown that it faces a cool yet reserved negotiator. It's not in the West's interest to attempt negotiations in bad faith or to critically overestimate the amount of leverage it has over Iran. For Iran may not need this deal as much as the West thinks it does, while Iran retains the option of the status quo.

Acknowledgments to Arnold Evans, Muhammad Sahimi and Mahan Abedin

Iran sets date for nuclear talks

It has been agreed by the Iranian government that talks regarding Iran's nuclear program with the five permanent members of the UN Security Council -- Russia, China, Britain, France and the United States will commence on October 1st.

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has stated that he is ready to negotiate with the international community but has stated Tehran will not hold talks on Iran's right to nuclear power.

"We are ready to hold talks on international cooperation and ways to resolve ongoing economic and security problems in the world as we believe that such issues cannot be settled without collective participation," he stated.

new US and Iran nuclear talks

Talks between Iran and the United States over Iran's nuclear program have seen considerable progress today when it was agreed by President Obama to send a representative to talk to Iranian officials face to face over Iran's nuclear program and other political and economic issues.

This marks the first time since the revolution in 1979 that the US accepted to have diplomatic face to face talks with the current regime in Iran showing new developments between the two countries.

Preventing a Cascade of Instability - Updated

From the Washington Institute's summary:

Preventing a Cascade of Instability: U.S. Engagement to Check Iranian Nuclear Progress is the final report of The Washington Institute's Presidential Task Force on Iranian Proliferation, Regional Security, and U.S. Policy, a bipartisan, blue-ribbon commission of diplomats, legislators, strategists, scholars, and experts. The task force recommends that the Obama administration act urgently to prevent Iran's nuclear progress from triggering a cascade of instability throughout the Middle East, as such a development could threaten U.S. interests in both regional security and global nonproliferation efforts. Endorsers of the report include key Obama administration officials such as Undersecretary of State for Nonproliferation Robert Einhorn and Dennis Ross, the administration's point man on Iran and the Gulf.

The task force warns that, without strong U.S. leadership, countries in the Middle East may accommodate Iran, attack it, or try to match its new capabilities. The way forward, the report argues, is for Washington to engage Tehran while at the same time increasing diplomatic leverage on the Iranian leadership, including incentives. This would involve closer consultation and coordination with allies, as well as reinforced security measures and tougher international sanctions.

According to the report, now is the time for the United States to promote a policy of "resist and deter" rather than "acquiesce and deter" within the international community. Assertive action now to build U.S. leverage is more likely to prevent Iran's emergence as a military nuclear power. But time is short if diplomatic engagement is to have a chance of success and military confrontation avoided. Iran continues to produce enriched uranium, of which it already has a sufficient amount -- if processed further -- for a bomb.

The Middle East is looking for strong U.S. leadership and reenergized relationships. Vigorous steps to bolster regional defense cooperation could enhance stability and serve to check regional perceptions that U.S. influence is weakening. As part of the solution to the impasse, Washington could propose measures that would also serve to shore up the global nonproliferation system.

Available for download here.

Update: Book Review by Kaveh L. Afrasiabi available here.

USS Ronald Reagan reportedly pulled from Persian Gulf

From PressTV:

The nuclear-powered USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier has reportedly departed the Persian Gulf after experiencing a technical problem.

"The Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier, which belongs to the US Navy, left the Persian Gulf on Saturday after its experienced problems in its water sweetening system," an Iranian military official told IRNA on condition of anonymity on Saturday.

The technical problem forced the aircraft carrier to dock at Jabal Ali port in the United Arab Emirates on October 1.

The official added that the municipality of Jabal Ali provided the ship with 100 sweet water tankers containing 7,000 liters each.

The USS Ronald Reagan is a Nimitz-class nuclear-powered supercarrier in the service of the United States Navy; it can carry 90 fixed-wing aircraft or helicopters.

Interesting that Iran's media cites Iranian military sources in reporting this development. It's a deliberate indication of Iran's military intelligence capability.

Ahmadinejad Says US Was Planning to Attack Iran

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad told reporters today in Tehran that there were days when they [the US and its allies] were even setting the hour to attack Iran. He did not give any further information on the dates the US was to attack Iran or on Iranian response to those impending attacks.

Ahmadinejad, speaking in a press conference, also said that they [the US and its allies] have realized that they can’t do anything anymore; presumably believing that the US would no longer attack Iran.

Writer Says Strike against Iran is Forthcoming

Bob Baer, a former CIA operative whose book about his life inspired the thriller Syriana, says he was told by senior intelligence officials that the US will attack Iran in the months ahead. Baer who is working on a new book on Iran told The Weekend Australian that his contacts have advised him that his book’s scheduled January submission is “probably going to be too late.”

Washington is abuzz these days about possible military action against Iran, which is reportedly being weighed at the highest levels of the Bush administration. The latest speculation has been a surgical strike on the Revolutionary Guards.

The New York Times reported last week that the Bush administration was preparing to declare the Revolutionary Guards a foreign terrorist organization, signaling a confrontational turn in the administration's approach to Iran.

Iranian F-14 Tomcats Are Back

Jane Defense Weekly reported in its 15 August edition that the Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force (IRIAF) has returned to service three more F-14A Tomcat interceptor aircraft within the last four months (IRIAF F-14A pictured here - MEHR).

During the last years of the Shah, Iran received 79 F-14A. In the last few years Iran has started an aggressive program to overhaul and upgrade some 57 F-14A. The return of the first three upgraded aircraft is the result of that program.

The US Navy retired its fleet of F-14 Tomcat in September 2006. The US government has been determined not to let the Iranians smuggle aircraft parts, including a plan to blow up the retired Tomcat fleet. IRIAF, however, has apparently been successful to perform field and line maintenance on the aircraft and refurbish them. The major overhaul includes replacement of major fatigue parts and changes to the AWCS on-board weapon control system.

US Not Considering Attack on Iran

The White House said today that military actions are not being contemplated against Iran. The White House spokesman told reporters while the military option should not be taken off the table, the diplomacy is what the US is aiming towards.

The remarks came after the Washington Post revealed in the morning that the White House will designate Islamic Revolution Guards Corp. (IRGC) as a “specially designated global terrorist” group. The Revolutionary Guards have increasingly been involved in Iraq and Afghanistan conflicts. They also operate a vast mafia-type financial and business empire.

The US will publish the names of businesses operating within IRGC network. These companies will also be subjected to the new terrorist designation. The US will clamp down on those businesses as well as on foreign companies doing business with IRGC and its affiliated companies.

US and Israel to Push for Iran’s Financial Isolation

US Treasury official Stuart Levy met with Israeli foreign minister Tzipi Livini in Tel Aviv this week to review their joint efforts in financially isolatate of Iran. Some of the world’s major financial institutions have already severed ties with Iran. The German banking powerhouse, Deutche Bank, was the latest among major European banks to stop doing business with Iran last week.

Levy, who carries the hefty title of Under Secretary of Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence, was in Berlin in late July for meetings with German officials on the country’s business ties to Iran. Germany will also be suspending its export insurance coverage for Iran. Without such coverage, German manufacturers will be forced to give up all future contracts with Iran.

Levy’s work is conducted outside the framework of the UN Security Council sanctions against Iran and is intended to bypass China’s growing reluctance to support further sanctions against Iran over its nuclear program. China is growing its already-huge volume of trade with Iran and seems not willing to support a third round of UN sanctions against Iran.

There are, however, strong signs that the powerful bazaaris and businessmen in Iran are extremely concerned about Levy’s efforts which have practically cut them off from the world’s financial markets. Their personal wealth has also been affected. The European banks are increasingly asking their major Iranian accountholders to close their accounts in their banks. Dubai banks are reportedly considering to do same. The wealthy Iranians who do not possess any dual citizenship are facing a difficult time to find a secure place to invest or park their cash.

Israeli foreign minister spokesman Mark Regev said before Levy/Livini meeting got underway that Iran must understand that business as usual cannot continue while it is pursuing its nuclear program.

News from Iran

The mounting tensions in US-Iran relations dominated the coverage in the Iranian media. Comments by President Bush on his continuous efforts to isolate Iran and earlier comments by a senior US military commander in Iraq accusing Iran of arming Shia militias in Baghdad received prominent coverage in the press. The conservative press emphasized the “futile” nature of any further negotiations with the US, while the moderate press highlighted the risks involved in the deteriorating relations with the US.

On the nuclear front, the government disclaimed comments made by Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator during an interview with a German magazine that suspension of uranium enrichment could be a possibility. A government spokesman said Iran would not consider suspension under any circumstances.

President Ahmadinejad continued his diatribes against Israel, this time suggesting that the Jewish state should fine a new home elsewhere on the planet.

On domestic front, the crackdown against moderate and reformist press continued. The reformist flagship daily Shargh was closed down by the government. The number of detained journalists in the notorious Security Section 209 at Evin prison rose to eleven.

US-Iran Relations

· US President George Bush said he would continue efforts to isolate Iran; Bush accused Iran of being a destabilizing force in the region; Bush, at a ceremony at Camp David for Afghan President Hamid Karzai, said that because of the actions of the US government, Iran is isolated and the US will continue to work to isolate it further.
· A senior US army commander in Iraq, Lt. Gen. Raymond Odierno, accused Iran for increasing its supply of weapons and training to Shia militias in Iraq; Gen. Odierno said the Shia militias were responsible for two-thirds of the attacks in Baghdad that has killed or injured US troops.
· The US and Iranian ambassadors to Iraq met for third round of talks in two months on Iraqi security; Iranian Ambassador Hassan Kazemi Qomi and the US Ambassador Ryan Crocker met for about two hours on Monday 6 Agust in Baghdad; the US, Iraqi and Iranian delegations also held their first talks as part of a subcommittee on Iraqi security.
· Meetings of the trilateral committee involving Iran, Iraq, and the US began in Baghdad to discuss the issue of security in Iraq; the Iraqi president Jalal Talabani met with the Iranian delegation and expressed hope that the trilateral meeting will help achieve security and stability in Iraq.

Iran Nuclear Program

· Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini said Iran would not consider a suspension of uranium enrichment activities under any circumstances; Hosseini denied that Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator, Ali Larijani, had said that a suspension was conceivable; the German weekly Focus had quoted Larijani as saying during an interview that a suspension was conceivable as an outcome to talks with world powers; Hossienin said that Iran’s nuclear program was progressing at “normal” pace and uranium enrichment will continue as planned.
· A delegation from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) led by Michiro Hosaya arrived in Iran for talks on nuclear inspections; Hosaya held a meeting with Mohammad Saeedi, the deputy director of Iran’s atomic energy organization; the talks centered around the future inspections of Iran's uranium enrichment facilities at Natanz; Last week, another IAEA team inspected the heavy-water reactors under construction in Arak.

Leading Regional Storylines

· Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki is scheduled to visit Iran tomorrow; a high-level delegation of Iraq’s ruling Al Dawah Party arrived in Tehran for talks on the future of Prime Minister Nuri Al Maliki’s government; reports circulating in Tehran suggest that Al Maliki’s government is loosing support for its lack of authority in Iraq and the Iranians might favor the return of Ebrahim Jafari as premier.
· Colonel Rahmatullah Safi, head of border police for western Afghanistan, told The Sunday Times that Iran is arming the Taliban; Safi accused Iran of delivering sophisticated IED’s (improvised explosive devices) to Taliban rebels to fight the British troop; The Sunday Times reports that Afghan military sources fear that the Iranians may also have supplied heat-seeking missiles along with supplies of assault rifles and mortars.
· Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad called on Israel to leave the Palestinian territories; Ahmadinejad said let the Israelis “go find somewhere else.”

Leading Domestic Storylines

· One of Iran’s leading newspapers, Shargh, was closed down by the government; Shargh had published an interview with an Iranian-Canadian poet, Misagh Ghahraman, in its culture section that had dealt with the issue of female homosexuality; the interview titled “Womanly Talk” was published in Monday 4 August edition of the paper; the government accused Shargh for the “publication of an interview with an anti-revolutionary and homosexual woman.”
· The Assembly of Experts is scheduled to meet 4-6 September to choose a successor to its deceased chairman, Ayatollah Ali Meshkini; Ayatollah Mohammad Taqi Mesbah Yazdi and Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani were among the leading candidates to head the assembly; the 86-man clerical assembly is empowered to choose and supervise the Supreme Leader.
· The Expediency Council rejected the Majlis bill to combine the next Majlis and presidential elections; the elections for the 8th Majlis will be held on Friday 18 March, 2008; the presidential elections will be held in June 2009.
· Iran’s Defense Minister Brigadier Mohammad Mustafa Najar announced that a domestic fighter jet, called Azarakhsh, was test flown successfully; the flight took place in Isfahan; Azarakhsh is the second fighter built in Iran (3); the first, Saeqeh, is already in service.
· Iran’s Intelligence Minister Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejeie said his organization has foiled a “terror plot” in southern province of Khuzestan; Ejeie added that a group of “anti-revolutionaries” were aiming to carry out the act; Ejeie did not elaborate on the target of the plot or the individuals involved; Ejeie also revealed that in recent months “a number of anti-revolutionaries” had been arrested in Iran’s neighboring countries and extradited back to Iran, but he gave no details.