Khamenei’s Major Red Lines in Nuclear Negotiations

The official Twitter account of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei today posted what it termed as Iran’s major red lines in nuclear negotiations. The seven items listed as red lines cover three basic areas: sanctions relief; sunset provisions for uranium enrichment as well as R&D; and access for inspectors.

The red lines appear to be in breach of the framework agreement announced in Lausanne in April by the Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif and EU foreign policy chief Federica Moghirini.

Chart credit: Twitter/@khamenei_ir

Iran Nuclear Talks to Resume in Vienna

Differing Interpretations of Lausanne Agreement

Negotiations to reach a final comprehensive agreement over Iran’s nuclear program will start Wednesday in Vienna. This would be the first time the negotiators meet since a framework agreement was announced in Lausanne on 2 April.

The U.S. and Iran have offered significantly different interpretations on the agreement that was reached in Lausanne, questioning the existence of a “framework” for the talks. They would first need to reconcile the differing interpretations.

The U.S. understanding of the agreement has been spelled out in a factsheet released soon after the agreement was reached. The Iranian position has been announced by its supreme leader. During a major speech on the issue, Khamenei set forth conditions that not only contradicted the U.S. factsheet, but also a joint statement read out in English and Farsi by EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini and Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif at the conclusion of the Lausanne talks. Three areas of significant difference:

First, Iran’s supreme leader wants all UN and U.S./EU sanctions to be lifted on the day a comprehensive agreement (JCPOA) is signed. Mogheini/Zarif statement and U.S. factsheet set forth specific processes for ending those sanctions. The lifting of EU/U.S. sanctions would require an IAEA’s verification that Iran has implemented its key nuclear commitments under the agreement. A process that could not possibly happen on the day the agreement is signed, unless Iran voluntarily implement all its commitments before a final agreement is signed, a highly unlikely scenario.

The lifting of UN sanctions also would require a new UNSC resolution that would cancel the previous four sets of sanctions resolutions against Iran, but would continue a set of restrictive measures on Iran, including restrictions related to Iran’s ballistic missile program, modifying the existing UNSCR 1929 and its restriction on the ballistic missiles. The supreme leader said such restrictions will not be acceptable.

Second, the U.S. factsheet and Mogherini/Zarif joint statement would require the implementation of the Additional Protocol. This agreement, however, would give unfettered access to IAEA to all sites, declared or undeclared by Iran, that could carry nuclear activities, including some areas within military sites. Iran’s supreme leader said such inspections of military sites would not be acceptable.

Third, the supreme leader would want to maintain an R&D program at Fordo nuclear site at a much more extensive level than the Lausanne agreement allows, including R&D work on uranium enrichment for building next generation of centrifuges.

All the differing interpretations of Lausanne agreement could be resolved if there were political will at the talks. But the negotiations that start on Wednesday could require much more time than the 30 June deadline allows for reaching the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), and that deadline could probably needs another extension. And the negotiators will first need to agree on what they had agreed in Lausanne.

Critics of Iran Deal Should Hold Fire – Kerry

Secretary of State John Kerry urged congressional opponents of an emerging nuclear deal with Iran to “hold their fire” until they see a final agreement later this year. Kerry told CBS’s “Face the Nation” that the administration should be free to negotiate without interference until the 30 June deadline for the final agreement. Kerry added that Iran deal critics were wrong before and are wrong now.

“I would remind you that people have the same dueling narratives, discrepancies, spin – whatever you want to call it – with respect to the interim agreement, Bob,” Kerry told Face the Nation’s Bob Schieffer. “But in the end, an interim agreement came out exactly as we had described, and what’s important is Iran has not only signed it but has lived up to it in every aspect.” (CBS, 12 April)

Sanctions Should Be Lifted In a Single Step – IRGC Commander

Issue of How Sanctions Are Lifted Could Result in Failure of Nuclear Talks

IRGC Commander Gen. Mohammad Ali Jafari said today in Tehran that the nuclear talks could end in failure over the issue of how sanctions are lifted.

“The importance of (nuclear) talks in the framework of our heroic flexibility rests on the proposition that in lieu of compromises offered by Iran all sanctions should be lifted in a single step,” Gen. Jafari said.

“No matter how the talks end, whether the sanctions are lifted or not, we must preserve the main values and mottos of our system. If we show any flexibility, it is within the framework of the principles and policies of our system (“nezam”) and for preserving the high esteem and power of our Islamic system and the interests of the Iranian nation,” Jafari said. “I believe the Supreme Leader’s concerns are those types of concerns.” (Fars News Agency, 11 April)

“Regarding the lifting of sanctions, there are ambiguities which need to be transparent, and we need to know that this subject of how sanctions are lifted could result in failure of the talks.”

Photo credit: IRGC Commander Gen. Mohammad Ali Jafari (Fars News Agency)

Khamenei on Lausanne Talks - UPDATE

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei said today that all sanctions must be lifted when the comprehensive nuclear deal (JCPOA) is signed. Khamenei also said that Iran’s military sites would be strictly off limits to IAEA inspectors. Khamenei’s remarks were the first on the framework agreement that was struck in Lausanne last week.

“There was no need to take a position (on framework agreement),” Khamenei said. “The officials are saying that nothing has been done yet and nothing is obligatory. I neither agree or disagree.”

“(The sanctions) should be lifted all together on the same day of the agreement, not six months or one year later,” Khamenei said. “If lifting of sanctions are supposed to be connected to a process, then why do we negotiate?” (IRNA/NYTimes, 9 April)

During the announcement of the framework agreement in Lausanne, EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini and Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif read a joint statement that indeed linked the lifting of sanctions to IAEA and UNSC processes. If Khamenei was referencing those processes, then this could constitute a step backward.

“The EU will terminate the implementation of all nuclear-related economic and financial sanctions and the U.S. will cease the application of all nuclear-related economic and financial sanctions, simultaneously with the IAEA-verified implementation by Iran of its key nuclear commitments,” said Mogherini/Zarif statement.

“A new UN Security Council Resolution will endorse the JCPOA, terminating all previous nuclear-related resolutions and incorporate certain restrictive measures for a mutually agreed period of time,” Mogherini/Zarif statement added.

According to the joint statement, the EU/U.S. sanctions are lifted/not applied after IAEA certifies Iran’s compliance with the agreement, which could be days or months after the day the agreement is signed. Meanwhile, the UNSC would put “certain restrictive measure,” which could include issues related to Iran’s ballistic missile program. The new UNSCR will not be put to a vote on the day the agreement is signed.

There is a serious discrepancy between Ayatollah Khamenei's understanding of the terms of the agreement and what the joint statement by Mogherini and Zarif said. The two sides will now need to iron out their different interpretations of what was agreed to in Lausanne prior to the signing of JCPOA. Nothing goes easy with these talks!

UPDATE: The State Department said Thursday the sanctions would be removed only gradually.

“We’re not going to respond to every public statement made by Iranian officials or negotiate in public. Sanctions will be suspended in a phased manner upon verification that Iran has met specific commitments under a finalized joint comprehensive plan of action," said State Department spokesman Jeff Rathke.

Photo credit: Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei addressing issues related to Iran Talks in Lausanne; 9 April 2015 (Mehr News Agency)

IRGC Commander Endorses Lausanne Agreement

IRGC Commander General Mohammad Ali Jafari today publicly endorsed the Lausanne agreement on the country’s nuclear program. He framed his support for the agreement under a declaration of victory by Iran.

“The Iranian nation’s resistance to the U.S. thwarted Washington’s robust options for imposing its will political will on the Islamic Republic of Iran,” Gen. Jafari said. (IRNA, 7 April)

Jafari praised the efforts of the Iranian negotiating team in Lausanne, but warned of a “difficult path” ahead in future talks with the U.S.

Photo credit: IRGC Commander General Mohammad Ali Jafari; Tehran, 7 April 2015 (Mehr News Agency)

Firouzabadi Congratulates Khamenei on Lausanne Success

Chief of Staff of Iranian Armed Forces General Hassan Firouzabadi today send a congratulatory message to the country’s supreme leader on the nuclear agreement reached in Lausanne, Tasnim News Agency reported.

Firouzabadi thanked the supreme leader for his guidelines to the negotiating team and also thanked Rouhani and Zarif for asserting "the inalienable rights of the Islamic Republic to peaceful nuclear energy."

“I am honored to thank you for offering guidelines which have brought our nation dignity and resistance,” Gen. Firouzabadi said in his message to Khamenei. (Tasnim, 5 April)

Photo credit: Chief of Staff of Iranian Armed Forces General Hassan Firouzabadi (Tasnim) 

FM Zarif returns to Tehran from Lausanne nuclear talks

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif upon his return to Tehran from successful nuclear negotiations with P5+1 conducted at Lausanne, Switzerland.

Among assigned security for Zarif's passing motorcade can be seen a supportive, waving NAJA colonel, and a NAJA brigadier general 2nd class.

NAJA is the Persian acronym for the Law Enforcement Force of Islamic Republic of Iran.

Well-wishers of Foreign Minister Zarif include a flag-bearer of the Islamic Republic, alongside regardful NAJA  second sergeant major.

Photos: Mohammad Delkesh at Tasnim News Agency

Iran, World Powers Announce Nuclear Agreement

Iran and the six world powers today announced that they have reached an agreement on key elements of a final deal to begin writing the text of the final comprehensive agreement.

The final agreement would end a 12-year impasse over Iran’s nuclear program, and all nuclear-related sanctions against Iran will be lifted.

Iran-U.S. Marathon Talks in Lausanne - UPDATES

UPDATE (THU 2 APR): A joint statement by Iran, P5+1 will be issued at a press conference in Lausanne at 7pm local time (1pm EST).

- Kerry and Zarif held marathon talks overnight that lasted 7.5 hours, from 10:30pm on Wednesday to 6am on Thursday local time.

- Zarif tells reporters after the record meeting. "We don't know yet. They (P5+1) are talking among themselves, we have to wait and see."

- At 10:50am, P5+1 began their meeting. Kerry and EU-3 FMs in attendance. Russia and China are represented by their political directors.

- Historians tell Bloomberg John Kerry's marathon talks with Zarif on Iran's nuclear program longest U.S. negotiating session since 1919 Paris Conference after WWI.

*****

UPDATE (WED 1APR): Kerry and Zarif held talks on Wednesday night. The Iranians were said to resent "new recommendations" on how to bridge the gap that have been holding up the accord. The talks are heading toward a moment of decision, The New York Time reported.

UPDATE: After failing to reach a framework agreement, the negotiators extended the talks for a second day into Thursday. Sate Department Spokeswoman Marie Harf said Secretary Kerry will stay until at least Thursday morning. Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif is also staying , so are the European FMs. The Chinese and Russian FMs have already left Lausanne.

*****

Iran, P5+1 ministerial plenary meeting was held in Lausanne Wednesday morning. There are still unresolved issues. It appears that instead of a framework agreement, the sides might produce a “Common Understanding of Principles,” a recap of political agreements so far and way ahead.

Conflicting Reports from Lausanne on Nuclear Deal

As of 6am local time on Wednesday, conflicting reports were emerging from Lausanne on what exactly has been agreed to. The Russians said "all" major issues have been agreed on and a framework agreement will be drafter on Wednesday. Iran's foreign minister said that "majority" of the issues have been resolved. And a Western diplomat was quoted as saying that no agreement had been agreed upon as of yet.

- Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lovrov said in Lausanne that Iran and the six world powers have agreed on main issues during the latest talks. A framework agreement will be drafted and presented on Wednesday, Lavrov said.

- Lavrov added that Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif and EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini will give a joint statement about the agreement on Wednesday.

- A short time after Lavrov's announcement, Reuters, citing a diplomat close to the talks, reported that such an agreement, as described by Lovrov, had not been reached and there were issues still unresolved.

- A French official also told Reuters that Foreign Mimister Laurent Fabius was leaving the talks and would return from France when it was "useful."

State of Iran Talks

- The talks have been extended until Wednesday.

- Reuters reported tonight that the six major powers have told the Iranians they have to make up their minds on whether to accept a framework agreement before dawn on Wednesday. A diplomatic source told Reuters that the P5+1 had told Iran they wouldn’t be playing “extra time.”

- Other reports, citing a senior U.S. official involved in the talks, say the world powers have not given Iran a hard morning deadline.

- The Chinese foreign minister has already left Lausanne. The French foreign minister will leave at 5 AM for Geneva to return to Paris in the morning. It was also announced that the German foreign minister will also leave Lausanne in the morning. It's crunch time!

- Iran, P5+1 plenary session ongoing (nearly 1am on Wednesday in Lausanne). A U.S. official is quoted as saying this might be an all nighter.

- The plenary session of FMs was halted at around 1am, will resume at 8am.

- 1:30am: Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif told reporters that "solutions to most issues have been found." He said drafting (presumably of final agreement) will start from tomorrow.

- Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov was quoted as saying that the framework agreement will be announced (in the morning) by Foreign Minister Zarif and EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini.

Iran, World Powers Near Preliminary Nuclear Deal

UPDATE: Talks Extended Until Wednesday

UPDATE: Negotiators from Iran and P5+1 extended their deadline until Wednesday as they struggled to agree on a framework for a comprehensive deal on Iran’s nuclear program, The New York Times reported.

*****

Iran and world powers are closing in on a declaration of accord detailing areas of agreement they have reached so far and giving themselves until 30 June to resolve the remaining tough issues. The Lausanne declaration is expected to be released before the midnight deadline tonight. The sides would have then three months to draft a comprehensive final accord.

Intensive Talks in Lausanne

Reports from Lausanne indicate that the crucial round of nuclear talks are going down to proverbial wire. Diplomats speaking to reporters say “some quite important gaps” still remain. Two apparently main disputes continues to be the sequence of lifting of sanctions, and what kind of nuclear R&D Iran can still pursue. The issue of disposal of Iran’s current stockpile of enriched uranium has also not been resolved yet. Iran said on Sunday that it will not ship out the stockpile to Russia, as has been suggested in the past as a viable solution.

With the self-imposed deadline of 31 March looming, the foreign ministers of Iran and the six major powers today held their first plenary session since the talks were extended last November. No breakthrough was reported. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will leave for Moscow later this afternoon to attend a state function. Sources tell reporters that Lavrov will return to Lausanne on Tuesday “if needed.”

As Russian deputy foreign minister told reporters today, all parties have the intention to reach a deal. But they need to make tough decisions by tomorrow.

Photo credit: The plenary session of foreign ministers of Iran, P5+1 and EU; Lausanne, 30 March 2015 (Reuters)

Iran, P5+1 Explore Compromises Aimed at Breaking Nuclear Impasse - UPDATES

UPDATE: Iran and the six world powers also need to overcome two core issues still under consideration in order to reach a political framework agreement, Laura Rosen of Al-Monitor reported Sunday night from Lausanne. They involve the scope of research and development that Iran could conduct in years 11-15 of a 15-year agreement, and what happens on UN Security Council resolutions.

UPDATE: Iran’s senior nuclear negotiator Abbas Araqchi told reports on Sunday in Lausanne that Iran will not send its current stockpile of enriched uranium abroad for conversion into power reactor fuel. The transfer of enrich uranium abroad, most probably Russia, has been among key demands of all members of P5+1.  If Iran sticks to its position, then to ensure that the breakout capability is not shorter than one year, Iran would need to agree to much lower number of centrifuges that would be allowed to operate. Tough choices.

*****

Western reporters at Iran talks in Lausanne are reporting as of Sunday afternoon local time that the two sides are seriously exploring compromises to break an impasse in nuclear talks. A plenary session of foreign ministers of Iran and six major powers will convene later today to approve possible compromises that would form the basis of a political framework agreement, with technical details worked out before 30 June deadline for a joint comprehensive accord.

FWIW, there are reports of compromises in the making this afternoon, which include Iran’s acceptance of having fewer than 6,000 centrifuges and shipping nearly all its current stockpile of enriched uranium to Russia for conversion into nuclear reactor fuel. The P5+1 would in return allow continued operation at Fordo enrichment facility, albeit limited to R&D work for medical purposes under close monitoring of IAEA.  The duration of the agreement, the so-called sunset clause, is said to be 11-15 years, containing different duration for different elements of a deal, with additional protocol and modified code 3.1 to NPT obligations lasting forever.

UPDATE: AFP quoted Iran's senior negotiator Abbas Araqchi as saying that Iran would never accept the demand by the P5+1 to send its stockpile of enriched uranium abroad. With the stockpile kept intact in Iran, the P5+1 might demand much lower number of operating centrifuges allowed, which Iran might not be willing to accept. In the last hours of negotiations, they are taking one step forward and one backward, the German foreign minister observed.

UPDATE: P5+1 and EU tonight held meeting among themselves for the first time since November extension of interim agreement, JPOA.

UPDATE: The plenary session of foreign ministers of Iran and six major powers will be held on Monday morning at 9 AM local time. The meeting was originally scheduled to be held tonight.

Iran, P5+1 Deal ‘Close to Final Step’ – Report

Iran and six major powers are about to agree on a framework agreement regarding Iran’s nuclear program, Reuters reported, citing an unnamed senior Iranian official familiar with the talks.

“The sides are very, very close to the final step and it could be signed or agreed upon verbally,” the Iranian source said. (Reuters, 27 March)

The framework agreement would form the basis of a long-term accord after a 12-year standoff between Iran and the West over the country’s nuclear program.

Iran Talks Lausanne

UPDATE: The U.S. is considering letting Iran run hundreds of centrifuges for research and development purposes at Fordo fortified enrichment unit, while limiting R&D work at other sites, the Associated Press reported today.

*****

The latest round of talks between Secretary of State John Kerry and Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif resumes on Friday in Lausanne. Other foreign ministers could also join the talks on Saturday. The two sides have imposed a 31 March deadline to reach a political framework agreement.

Iran’s main demand at the talks remains the immediate and full lifting of all sanctions upon reaching an agreement. It seems increasingly unlikely that the West would accept that demand in the five days left to the deadline. But if a framework deal could not be reached by end of March, the two sides could still continue their negotiations if they thought they could eventually find their way to a final agreement.

'Deal Can Be Reached' - Rouhani

Kerry: It Is Time to Make Hard Decisions

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said in Tehran today that in the round of talks in Lausanne “shared points of view emerged in some of the areas where there had been a difference of opinion.” Rouhani added that progress made in the talks means a final deal can be reached. “There is nothing that can’t be resolved, although some differences still remain.” (BBC, 21 March)

Speaking in Lausanne on Friday, Secretary of State John Kerry said “genuine progress” has been made, although “important gaps” remained. Today, Kerry said it was time to make tough decisions.

"We are not rushing... but we recognize that fundamental decisions have to be made now and they don't get any easier as time goes by," Kerry said. It is time to make hard decisions." (Reuters, 21 March)

Kerry is in London today meeting with the foreign ministers of Britain, France and Germany before returning to Washington.

Talks will resume on 26 March in an attempt to reach a framework agreement by the 31 March deadline.

Iranians Leave Lausanne; EU Officials to Meet in Berlin

Iran’s state-run Press TV reported that the Iranian nuclear negotiating team will be returning home today. It was not immediately clear why the Iranians were leaving Lausanne now, as they were previously scheduled to hold meetings through Sunday. Meanwhile, Secretary of State John Kerry will meet with the foreign ministers of Britain, France and Germany on Saturday in London before heading back to Washington.

EU3 Foreign Ministers Will Join Nuclear Talks in Lausanne

Update from Iran Talks Lausanne:

- The French and German foreign ministers will arrive in Lausanne on Friday, and the British foreign secretary is expected to arrive on Saturday. They will join Secretary of State John Kerry who has been in Lausanne in the past four days negotiating with the Iranian team.

- The Iranian delegation, headed by the Iranian FM, will remain in Lausanne through the Iranian New Year, which will be observed at 11:45 P.M. on Friday local Swiss time.

- There were no explanations given by Kerry’s team, or the EU, of why the three EU ministers were asked to join Kerry at the talks, and if their presence there were a positive sign.

- There were no indications as of yet that the Russian and Chinese FMs are joining the talks as well.

- Iranian and American delegations will resume meetings at 9:30 Friday morning.


Photo credit: Iran’s Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, center on left, and nuclear chief Ali Akbar Salehi, center on right, during an animated argument outside the conference room along with their aides after a morning negotiation session with Secretary of State John Kerry. Lausanne, 19 March (Brian Snyder/Reuters)