Iran Provided Rocket Technology to Hamas - Official

Former IRGC Commander Mohsen Rezaie, who is currently the secretary of the Expediency Discernment Council, said today that Iran has provided missile technology to Hamas, enabling it to fire rockets into Israel.

“Palestinian resistance missiles are the blessings of Iran's transfer of technology. We need to transfer defensive and military technology to Palestinians so that they can build weapons under the blockade and defend themselves,” Rezaei told state-run Arabic channel Al-Alam. (AP, 4 August)

Since the current conflict started on 8 July, Hamas has fired more than 3,000 rockets at Israel. Almost all incoming rockets that could have hit population areas have been intercepted by Israeli Iron Dome anti-missile defense system. Three Israeli civilians have been killed.

Photo credit: A rocket fired by Hamas from inside the Gaza Strip makes its way toward Israel on 16 July 2014. (Ariel Schalit/AP)

Islamic State Reportedly Captures Mosul Dam - UPDATE

Islamic State fighters on Sunday reportedly captured Mosul Dam, Iraq’s largest. IS seized control of the strategic dam during a weekend of victories for the militants. They overran towns of Sinjar, Zumar and Wana and took control of two oil fields in Zumar area.

“ISIL terrorists took control of Iraq's largest dam near the city of Mosul." (IraqiNews.com, 3 August)

Control of Mosul Dam will give the militants capability to unleash a deadly flood in northern Iraq, affecting large populations, if they so decide. The dam is located on the Tigris River in Ninawa province, upstream of Mosul. Its main power station produces 750 MW of electricity.

The IS victories were Kurdish Peshmerga’s first major defeat in the hands of Islamic State fighters, which within 24 hours secured large areas they were contesting against the Kurds.

Meanwhile, the Islamic State also declared victory in a statement issued by its Nineveh command after the string of Sunday’s victories.

“The Mujahideen conquered several areas controlled by secular Kurdish gangs and militias," said the statement. ”In a day-long series of battles involving a variety of weapons... the apostate enemies were humiliated, dozens were killed and wounded and hundreds fled.” 

“Islamic State brigades have now reached the border triangle between Iraq, Syria and Turkey. May God Almighty allow his Mujahedeen to liberate the whole region,” IS statement added. (IS/AFP, 3 August)

UPDATE: There are conflicting reports on who actually controls the dam. As of Tuesday 5 August, the Kurdish media reports that Peshmerga forces are indeed in control of the dam, with ISIL fighters in the area contesting their control.

File photo: Mosul Dam (Getty/AFP/BBC)

Islamic State Overruns Zumar and Sinjar - UPDATE

The Islamic State on Saturday overran towns of Zumar and Sinjar after fierce clashes with Kurdish Peshmerga forces, with reports of heavy casualties on both sides. The towns, west of Mosul, have Kurdish majorities, although not part of the KRG. The IS is apparently attempting to secure areas that it is contesting against the Kurds. 

The Islamic State also captured Zumar and Ein Zalah oilfields in the area. Iraq’s North Oil Company said on Saturday the Islamic State has taken control of oil fields in the area of Zumar, with daily production of 20,000 barrels. It also said it expects that the IS militants will load the shipments of produced crude oil in these fields and sell them in the black market, the Iraqi News reported today.

UPDATE: Later on Sunday, the Islamic State captured Wana, a strategic town near the Tigris River — putting them within striking distance of the Mosul Dam. Wana is the third town captured by IS this weekend. The capture of the dam would put northern Iraq in great jeopardy as the IS could unleash a deadly flood on large populations. (New York Times, 3 August)

File photo: Al Arabiya

The Economist: An Interview with President Obama

In an interview with John Micklethwait, editor-in-chief of The Economist, and Edward Carr, its foreign editor, President Obama discusses the future of Africa as he prepares to host a summit in Washington that will bring leaders from across the continent. Obama discusses other issues as well; worth a close read. To read the transcript, please click here.  

Iran Economy Shrank at 2.2 Percent Last Year

An ‘Improvement’ over Previous Year

 

Iranian government’s Center for Statistics reported today that the economy in Iranian calendar year 1392 (ending March 2014) shrank by 2.2 percent. In the same period, the country’s industrial sector showed a negative -4.5 percent growth, the service sector shrank by 9 percent, while agricultural sector grew at 1.2 percent. (Fars News Agency, 2 August)

Iranian economy started shrinking in 2012, partly due to toughest sanctions against oil and banking sector - The Center for Statistics had reported that the economy had a negative -6.8 percent growth during the previous year (ending March 2013), during Ahmadinejad administration’s last year, making the latest figure of 2.2 percent negative growth an improvement, if any shrinking of an economy could be characterized as such.

Padideh 'Legend City' tourist resort at Kish, under construction (2)

Detectable progress is evident at Padideh 'Legend City' tourist resort construction site at Kish, since Uskowi of Iran observed last February 2014 (see HERE). Like certain other developments of this scale in Iran, there appears no apparent slowdown of construction activity.

Heavy equipment in evidence at constrution site include KATO rough terrain crane, a second rough terrain crane, an all terrain crane and a number of tower cranes.

Street view of Padideh 'Legend City' resort construction site at Kish. At least six working tower cranes can be observed.

Padideh 'Legend City' tourist resort construction site at Kish observed at background right, with the ancient fortress themed Kish Restaurant seen in foreground. Note at left a gigantic sculpture of ship's anchor.

Rendering of completed Padideh "Legend City" which includes five towers with heights of 250 meters

Rendering of luxury rooftop details for tower of completed Padideh "Legend City"

Photos: padide.com

ISIL Makes $100 Million a Month Selling Oil

Karasik and Mills in Conversation with Syria Deeply

Middle East analysts say a significant portion of Islamic State’s financial resources come from the crude oil it sells on the black market; hence oil fields have become the militants’ prime targets.

Theodore Karasik, director of research at Dubai-based think tank INEGMA, and Robin Mills, a Dubai-based energy analyst, in a conversation with Syria Deeply explain why oil fields have become so important to ISIL and its cash flow. ABC News today carried the piece.

“It should have been obvious to the Syrian government that energy fields were going to become a source of contention because of their value… They [ISIL] are trying to establish a state, and these types of revenues are important for the state's formation because it makes up a significant chunk of their revenue. They can take over eastern Syria without oil revenue, but seizing these types of fields [like Shaar] are part of an ongoing plan to develop their own economic system,” said Karasik. (Syria Deeply/ABC News, 2 August)

Karasik estimates that ISIL is generating $30 million per month from selling Iraqi crude oil and could get as much as $100 million per month from combined sale of Iraqi and Syrian oil. They sell it for $30 per barrel to black market traders who function in Turkey, Syria and throughout the Levant.

Mills adds that the oil fields in Iraq and Syria are old and mature that needs a special technological work to extract oil, and so their production under ISIL is at 10 percent of pre-war levels. ISIL currently controls most of the oil fields in Syria.

To read the entire conversation with Karasik and Mills, please click here.   

File photo: Islamic State militants at the entrance of al-Omar oil field in Syria, July 2014. (YouTube/Aljazeera)

Iran Denies Sending Special Forces to Kurdistan

Iran today denied it has sent its special operations forces to Kurdistan region in Iraq by the request of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan led by the former Iraqi President, Jalal Talabani.

Iranian Foreign Ministry officials have told semi-official Fars News Agency the reports published by Arab media over sending IRGC soecial operations forces to Kurdistan at PUK’s request are “false and fabricated.” (Fars News Agency, 2 August)

On Friday, Pan-Arab daily Asharq Al-Awsat reported that hundreds of heavily armed IRGC Special Forces had landed at Sulaymaniyah International Airport during the week and were deployed to Kirkuk province, citing a senior Kurdish security official as its source, who has also told the newspaper that the deployment was arranged by the PUK. The Kurdish Peshmerga forces and PUK’s own Asayis security force control the oil-rich province, and it was not clear why the PUK wanted the additional deployment of IRGC special forces in the area. It was the Asharq Al-Awsat’s report that sources at the Iranian foreign ministry denied today.

File photo: The entrance of Iran’s ministry of foreign affairs bukiding in Tehran (FNA)

ISIL Splitting Iraq and Syria

And Quds Force Dilemma

The Independent carried a headline today that the Islamic State militants after conquering Sunni regions of Iraq are now consolidating their hold on northeastern Syria. That was apparently the intent of the ISIL from the very beginning: controlling predominantly Sunni region along the lower Euphrates in both Syria and Iraq, building their Islamic state and establishing their caliphate. One of their first major acts after capturing Mosul was to take out border barriers between the two countries. So it is not surprising that they are now paying as much attention to consolidating their hold on northeastern Syria as expanding their presence in western and northern Iraq.

Responses from Syria and Iraq have been similar: the Syrian government appears to be resigned at conceding the northeastern territories to the militants, trying to hold on western Syria. And doing so with the help of the Iranian Quds Force (QF) and Lebanese Hezbollah and an assortment of QF-led Shia militias, forming a unified front, the NDF, to augment the Syrian Army. The Iraqis seem to have established Samarra-Balad region as their first line of defense against the ISIL’s advance toward Baghdad, with an ultimate strategy of defending the capital and Shia south. And doing so with the help of the Quds Force and their Shia militias, but not as unified as the NDF.

The Islamic State has in effect already split the region into four parts: Assad’s western Syria; Islamic State’s northeastern Syria and western and northern Iraq; Baghdad and Shia south; and an independent Kurdistan. And they have done so in a lightening speed.

The Quds Force is the constant here; with Damascus and increasingly Baghdad relying on its leadership and what they bring to the table, organizing, funding, training, arming, and providing logistics to the Shia militia forces, to save the two governments.

But the Quds Force and General Soleimani are facing a dilemma: their successful NDF model in Syria is not working in Iraq. The Iraqi Shia militias ready to fight the ISIL across the country could not be united and have proven not as effective as required under the dire circumstances. And those Shia militias who could probably put up a serious and effective fight want to limit their presence at the battle space to defending Shia shrines. The former are the likes of Kataib Hezbollah, AHH, and Badr; the latter are the followers of Muqtada al-Sadr, his Promised Day Brigade and Mahdi Army.

Soleimani should not have been surprised. The Iraqi Shia militias have their origins in post-2003 invasion, organized by the QF to fight U.S. forces in Iraq. Even then, they could not form a united front against the United States. The group rivalry and political and ideological differences are no less today. Iran might be forced to put boots on the ground if the situation in Baghdad deteriorates.

The Iraqi government however could be able to hold Baghdad, with QF/militias help, as well as their own counter-terrorism special forces. The government is also awash with cash, exporting crude oil from Basra and bringing in billions of dollars a month, able to pay for the defense of its shrunk territory, at least for some time to come. Assad wished he had the same amount of cash!

It’s going to be long summer and fall in the region. Four increasingly independent regions substituting for the remnants of two countries created 100 years ago.

Map: BBC/Institute for the Study of War (ISW)