Saturday, August 8, 2009

LIFE: Eyewitness from Tehran's Streets

LIFE has published photographs taken by an Iranian photojournalist during the days of hope, range and defiance on the streets of Tehran. The photojournalist is now missing.

You can see the entire gallery at:
http://www.life.com/image/first/in-gallery/28782/eyewitness-from-tehrans-streets








Friday, August 7, 2009

Iranian Currency under Pressure

The Wall Street Journal reported yesterday on Iranian economists predicting double-digit currency depreciation by year-end. The forecast is based on the growing level of capital flight from Iran over fears about the country’s economic direction, The Journal reported.

The Iranian government is selling millions of dollars each day to defend the official exchange rate of the local currency, the rial. The current exchange rate has been kept at 9,700 to 9.900 rial-to-dollar. The Journal report asserts that this spending now exceeds the amount of hard currency generated by the sale of oil, country’s major source of hard currency. Naturally such imbalance can not continue for long, hence the expectations for a major devaluation of the currency.

Capture of $18.5 Billion in Gold and Currency at Turkish Border

Turkey's Kanal D Video

The video above, narrated in Turkish, is a report on the capture last October of gold and cash worth $18.5 billion from an Iranian citizen crossing the border with Turkey. The alledged smuggler is Ismael Safarian-Navab, now believed to be a former general officer at IRGC.

Iran's government-run Press TV had reported on 4 August that the Central Bank of Iran was investigating the transfer of $18.5 billion in gold and cash from Iran to Turkey.

Tehran Protests


Tehran. Vanak Square. Thursday 6 August 2009
People Chanting "Marg bar Dictator!" (Death to Dictator)

Thursday, August 6, 2009

Israel will attack Iran by the end of 2009



Former US Ambassador to the UN, John Bolton, says a military strike against Iran will be the only way for Israel to shield itself, before Iran develops its nuclear weapons program.

An Israeli attack on Iran could have disastrous consequences (for both sides) and could result in several things happening at once, including (as already threatened by the Islamic Guards) the closing off of the Strait of Hormuz which could bring down a hefty amount of the world economy overnight and the retaliatory firing of Iranian long range ballistic missiles (such as the Shahab-3) at Israeli nuclear sites such as Dimona.

Wednesday, August 5, 2009

Ahmadinejad Sworn In

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad delivering his speech to Majlis, the Iranian parliament, after being sworn in for his second term as Iran's president
Tehran. 5 August 2009. Fars Photo

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was sworn in today as Iran’s president for a second term. The ceremony was held at Majlis, the Iranian parliament.

Iran’s state-owned Press TV reports from Tehran that a heavy security presence around Majlis blocked out opposition protests as Ahmadinejad took the oath of office. Thousands of security and Basij forces with their motorcycles were present in the areas around Baharestan square, where the majlis building is located [Press TV, 5 august 2009].

White House Spokesman: Misspoken on Ahmadinejad

White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said today he had misspoken when calling Mr. Ahmadinejad Iran's elected leader. Gibbs said Washington believes that the Iranian people should decide whether the election was fair. Gibbs made the comments onboard Air Force One.

"Let me correct a little bit of what I said yesterday. I denoted that Mr Ahmadinejad was the elected leader of Iran. I would say that's not for me to pass judgment on.

"He's been inaugurated. That's a fact. Whether any election was fair, obviously the Iranian people still have questions about that, and we'll let them decide about that."

Tuesday, August 4, 2009

Iran Lawmaker: The Three Americans Came as Spies

Shane Bauer, one of the three Americans detained by the Iranians, shown
on a screen grab of his website "about" section. He introduces himself as
a freelance journalist and photographer based in the Middle East

The three Americans crossed the boder near Iranian town of Marivan

Dokan Resort, Iraqi Kurdistan
The three Americans were last seen in the resort before hiking in the region

The chairman of National Security Committee of Majlis (Iranian parliament) Mohammad Karim Abedi told Iran’s state-run Arabic television Al-Alam today that the authorities are deciding whether the three Americans arrested in Iran last Friday will be accused of spying. The authorities had earlier confirmed the arrests. Shane Bauer, Sarah Shourd and Joshua Fattal, all UC Berkley graduates, strayed across Malakh-Khor border from Iraq near the Iranian town of Marivan while hiking in the region and were surrendered and detained by Iran’s border police.

Abedi told Al-Alam that he personally believed the three came as spies but authorities are still deciding whether there is proof to bring legal action against them.

Sultan of Oman in Tehran

Sultan Qabus of Oman being Greeted by President Ahmadinejad
Marmar Presidential Palace. Tehran. 4 August 2009. IRNA


Sultan Qabus Meets with Ayatollah Khamenei.
Tehran. 4 August 2009. IRNA

Monday, August 3, 2009

US to Prevent a Nuclear Iran

The US government vowed today to do “what has to be done” to prevent Iran from having nuclear weapons. White House Spokesman Robert Gibbs explained the Washington policy.

"We think it's important to do what has to be done in order to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon," said Gibbs.

The New York Times had reported earlier that the US is ready to cut off Iran’s gasoline imports if the county’s uranium enrichment issue could not be resolved through negotiations.

Gibbs declined to comment specifically on the New York Times report. During the US presidential campaign, Candidate Obama had pledged to stop gasoline import to Iran to force the Iranians to end their enrichment program.

What the IIAF were prepared for

Since 1972 the Shah of Iran had taken interest in buying some new American built hi-tech interceptor aircraft, Iran had taken interest in the General Dynamics F-111 since 1968 but the US turned down this request instead sending some 32 F-4 Phantom II's to Iran in the early 1970's.



In light of air to air combat experience from Vietnam the Grumman Cooperation designed the F-14 Tomcat, a fast and powerful interceptor that could face down nimble Russian MiGs (earning it the nickname MiG killer), it also had the large powerful AWG-9 radar that could scan the battlefield for miles and could carry six AIM-54 missiles, these large long range missiles could be fired and reach a speed of Mach 4 before hitting their target from up to 100 miles away.

This incorporated with the AWG-9 radar meant that the F-14 could track 24 different targets and fire 6 missiles at them, all of this under a single airframe, truly the worlds first super fighter.



But after the delivery of the first 20 or so in 1976 the Shah ordered another batch bringing the total number of orders up to 80, these made up the bulk of the IIAF air defense that would cover all of Iran, most of the F-14's to be situated at the massive Khatami Air Base built in the desert outside of Isfahan near the center of the country.

The development of such huge aerial defence logistics for Iran in a short time was to counter Soviet MiGs which were overflying Iran in the mid 1970's, it was very hard for their F-4's to intercept the fast MiG-25 Foxbats (still one of the fastest fighter jets in the world) and such interceptions were becoming dangerous when an F-4 did manage to hit a MiG-25 which crashed after flying over the northern border into the USSR.

The Soviets responded by shooting down one of the IIAF EF-4's, not long later the first F-14's begun to arrive.

The IIAF was therefore improving Iran's air defense to be one of the best in the world, the AIM-54 armed F-14 Tomcat proved a real threat to the Soviets compared to the Sparrow armed F-4, over the desert the F-14's trained by shooting down drones from very long distances with their new AIM-54 missiles testing the truly deadly system to its limits.



The Shah seemed to think seriously that the Soviets were going to invade, if coordinated properly the IIAF would be a match for even the Soviet Air Force and would be a formidable obstacle for a mass Soviet attempt to gain air superiority over Iran, the Shah had also ordered the delivery of some 160 F-16 Fighting Falcons about a year before the revolution but that never happened and they were given to Israel (and a handful to Pakistan) instead in 1980.

But that would have been one formidable force if held together properly, the F-16's just add it to a standard that would ensure the Russians had no air superiority and would therefore be unable to launch a ground invasion of northern Iran.

However following the 1979 Iranian revolution the IIAF fell apart when the Americans left along with several pro Shah pilots, those who remained (Shah's pilots) where jailed or tortured and most of the planes were not able to get proper maintenance, the grand IIAF had fallen and was replaced by the IRIAF which still has some former IIAF aircraft in it today. But by 1988 they had been exhausted for resources (helped mainly by the arms and economic embargo's enforced by the US and Europe) by fighting the war with Saddam and most of the AIM-54 missiles had gone beyond their shelf life and only 25 of the original 79 Tomcats remained flyable.

But the IRIAF are pushing some more of the war worthy broken down F-14's into repairs (making new parts fixing the air frames back up etc.) and working on a replacement for the deadly AIM-54 Phoenix system.

Nader Uskowi - Interviews with Future TV

Nader Uskowi. Future TV. 31 July 2009

For our Arabic-speaking readers, following are the tapes of Nader Uskowi's recent interview with Beirut’s Future TV on the recent developments in Iran. The actual interview starts on tape 1 at approximately 7:00 minute mark, continuing into the second part.








Interview on 9 July 2009 on Iran nuclear program:







Ahmadinejad Prepares for Second Term amid Crisis

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei today formally approved the presidency of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. In a ceremony boycotted by former presidents Ayatollahs Rafsanjani and Khatami, Kameneie congratulated Ahmadinejad, praising him as brave, hard-working and wise man.

"I am endorsing the presidency of this brave, hard-working and wise man as the president of the Islamic Republic of Iran," said Khamanei.

Ahmadinejad begins his second term much weakened by a surprisingly strong and unwavering opposition movement against his presidency. A fragile de-facto co-existence arrangement between the opposition and the government is taking shape. This blogger believes that a long period of balance of fear has begun; the opposition and the government unable to topple the other, needing to postpone the endgame to a later date, perhaps the next presidential election.

Developments outside Iran, however, might tip the balance in favor of the opposition sooner than expected. The Obama administration is expected to impose real and harsh economic sanctions against Iran if the uranium enrichment issue is not resolved by year’s end, including an embargo on export of gasoline and other oil refined products to Iran. Gasoline imports to and oil exports from Iran are essential to the country’s economy and the government’s standing in the country.

I disagree with Mr. Khamenei that Ahmadinejad will be that brave, wise soul to lead the country out of its current crisis.

Sunday, August 2, 2009

Criticism of Iran Trials by Former IRGC Commander

Criticism of Iran's mass prosecution of political activists widened today with former IRGC commander Mohsen Rezaie demanding that the trials must be held for anyone linked to deadly attacks on the streets or torture of detainees.

"Otherwise, justice will not be realized and it is possible that unrest will not end," said Rezaei [Tabnak, 2 August].

Rezaie, one of the founders of the IRGC and a long-time conservative figure in Iranian politics, becomes the first major public figure on the right to criticize the trials.

Questions Surrounding Iran’s Airliner Crash

Italian daily Corriere Della Sera on Saturday reported that Iran’s Caspian Air’s Russian-made Tupolev jet that crashed near the city of Qazvin on 15 July, claiming the lives of 168 people, was carrying in its luggage compartment several metal cases with two kilograms of explosives and detonators.

The aircraft was flying to Armenia when it crashed. Eyewitnesses reported hearing explosions in the plane before it crashed into the ground. The Armenian investigators had visited the crash site, but the newspaper did not say if they were among its sources. Iranian authorities have said that they recovered the plane’s three black boxes but have not yet offered an official explanation for the fatal crash.

At the time of the crash, there were reports that members of the elite Iranian Revolutionary Guards were on board the plane. Corriere Della Sera says that its sources claim that the IRGC officers were to monitor the delivery of explosives to Hezbollah via Armenia.

Iran Trials Denounced – Confessions under Torture

Former Iranian president Mohammad Khatami denounced today the trial of approximately 100 people charged with taking part in post-election demonstrations. The trials took place on Saturday.

“What was done yesterday is against the constitution, laws and right of the citizens,” Khatami told a group of lawmakers and political activist. “The court relied on confessions taken under certain circumstances which are not valid.”

“The most important problem with the trials is that it was not held in an open session. The lawyers and the defendants were not informed of the contents of the cases ahead of the trial,” Khatami said.

Meanwhile, the opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi said in Tehran today that confessions at trial were extracted under “torture.”

Iran put 10 more protesters on trial in the revolutionary court in Tehran today [ISNA].

We believe the trials, reminiscent of Stalin-era trials of top Soviet leadership, are indeed invalid and will further inflame the anti-government sentiments among the youths and other segments of the population. Governments apparently have tough time to learn from history.


Mohammad Ali Abtahi, Iran's former vice president, shown before his arrest (l.) and at his trial on Saturday

Saturday, August 1, 2009

"Operation in Afghanistan rooted in Israel?"



The real reason why the U.S. continues its presence in Afghanistan is Iran the country which is an annoyance for Israel, said Karen Kwiatkowski, a writer and former U.S. Air Force officer.

An interesting episode on U.S. -Iranian relations

quote:

According to a variety of reports, the Iranians offered a grand bargain deal in 2003 via the Swiss Embassy in Tehran. The comprehensive deal listed both U.S. and Iranian aims. Through a two-page unclassified fax from Swiss interlocutors (that according to Flynt Leverett, a career CIA analyst and counter-terrorism expert at the State Department at the time, had support from all of the important figures in the Iranian government), Iran sent a bulleted list of trade-offs to spark negotiations between the two countries.

Iran offered to provide full transparency for its nuclear program under the policies of the International Atomic Energy Agency; provide full disclosure to the United States for tracking down al-Qaeda elements; support efforts to create a stable, democratic, nonreligious Iraqi government; halt material support to Palestinian opposition groups; and accept a two-state solution for the Israeli/Palestinian issue based on 1967 borders.

In return, the United States was to forgo all economic sanctions on Iran, cease rhetoric linking Iran to terrorism, establish a fully democratic state in Iraq (ensuring a Shi’ite majority power structure), allow Iran full access to peaceful nuclear technology, and turnover Mujahedin-e Khalq Organization (an anti-Iranian terrorist organization) cadres in Iraq to Iran. Apparently, it was this last point that was the most contentious within the U.S. administration, even though it was an aim of the administration to disarm the Mujahedin-e Khalq, which is on the terrorist organizations list.

The offer was rebuffed by the Bush administration. Whether this offer hit a dead end because of a lack of interest on the part of Washington or because of questions regarding the validity and credibility of the proposal, this episode proved yet another failed attempt to fundamentally re-order the U.S.-Iranian relationship. Either way, the United States is now in a weaker position to strike such deals with Iran than it was in 2003 and currently faces an Iranian government dominated by factions less interested in negotiation and engagement with the West.


"Dangerous But Not Omnipotent - Exploring the Reach and Limitations of Iranian Power in the Middle East"
RAND, 2009

Three Americans Detained in Iran

The region southest of Sulaimaniyah on Iranian border
near Iranian town of Marivan
(Google Earth)

Kurdish mountainous region near Sulaimaniyah

A Scene from Ahmed Awa
Three American hikers were detained after crossing Iranian border across Ahmed Awa


Iran has arrested three Americans hikers who crossed the border with Iraq at the picturesque Ahmed Awa, about 90 km (55 miles) southeast of Sulaimaniyah in autonomous Kurdistan region. The three are believed to be held in the local border police station.

Beshro Ahmed, media adviser for the Kurdish region, told reporters today that the two men and a woman, Shane Bauer, Sara Shroud and Joshua Fattal, had entered from Turkey earlier along with a fourth American, Shaun Gabriel Maxwell, who did not join the trek because he was ill.

"On Thursday, three of them went to the summer resort at Ahmed Awa," Ahmed said [AFP, 1 August].

Ahmed Awa is a cool and heavily-forested area. The mountainous region has several youth hostels, one of which the three American tourists stayed at. The nearby border with Iran is not clearly marked.

The group was in contact with their companion in Sulaimaniya until about 1:30 p.m. Friday, when they reported they were “surrounded by Iranian soldiers,” an official told CNN. After that, no further communication was received [CNN, 1 August].



MSNBC Report on the Incident

New Naval Base in Jask

Jask, at right, on Gulf of Oman near Strait of Hormuz
(Click to enlarge)

Map by Falling Rain Genomics, Inc.

Bandar Jask. Gulf of Oman
Google Earth

Iran’s Navy Commander Rear Admiral Habiballah Sayari in a ceremony held on Wednesday opened a new naval base in Jask. The new base is strategically located on Gulf of Oman near Strait of Hormuz.

Stalin-era Trials in Iran

Mohammad Ali Abtahi (second from right),
a cleric, prominent reformist and a former vice president
on trial along with 100 other defendants
Tehran. 1 August 2009. IRNA
( Note that Abtahi is holding a pre-written "confession")

Iran opened trials today for approximately 100 defendants charged with “leading and participating in riots, acting against national security, disturbing public order, damaging public and government property,” and “having relations with anti-revolutionary groups.” Several prominent moderates and pro-reform figures were among the defendants.

The trials, reminiscent of Stalin-era trials for some of the top Soviet leaders, will feature “confessions” of the accused, held more than 40 days in prison under torture.