Iran, P5+1 Resume Talks in Moscow on Monday

Iranian and P5+1 negotiating teams began to arrive in Moscow today ahead of the latest round of nuclear talks amid an absence of hope that the talks would end the decade-old standoff.

The host Russia will try to get some form of agreement in Moscow to avoid the collapse of the talks, probably by the two sides again agreeing to hold more talks.

“There are reasons to believe that the next step will be taken in Moscow,” Russia's Deputy Foreign Sergei Ryabkov said Friday. “It is important for Russia to ensure that the negotiating process continues.” [AFP, 17 June].

A July 1 deadline for a full EU embargo of Iranian crude oil and the June 28 rollout of tough US sanctions against Iranian oil customers, however, might press Iran to come up with some agreements, probably on limiting or curtailing its 20-percent uranium enrichment program.

Ahmadinejad to Retire from Politics

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said in an interview with Germany’s Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung that he would retire from politics after his second term in 2013. He added that he was planning to return to academia. Ahmadinejad holds a doctorate in engineering.  

“Eight years is enough,” Ahmadinejad said in the interview that will be published on Sunday [AFP, 16 June].

IKCO Starts Production of Runna

Iran’s auto manufacturer Iran Khodro Co. (IKCO) has started the production of its latest model, Runna. The compact sedan is the company’s third generation indigenously-manufactured car, offering 1.7-liter engine and anti-lock brakes, power steering and power windows. IKCO was founded in 1962 and is the country’s largest automaker and one of the biggest in the Middle East.

Photo Credit: 2012 Runna. IKCO photo

Ahmadinejad to Visit Latin America

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will visit Brazil next week during the Rio+20 summit and will meet world leaders on the sidelines of the gathering on sustainable development on 20-22 June. He would then visit Bolivia and Venezuela. In Caracas, he will have a brief meeting with the ailing president Hugo Chavez.

Regional Cooperation on Afghanistan

Iran along with 14 other countries in the region joined forces on Thursday to work with Afghanistan in fighting terrorism and drug trafficking and pursue economic development of the war-torn country.

“Afghanistan recognizes out of a grim experience of the past that it is only in stability and harmony and peace in this region that Afghanistan can prosper and be stable,” President Hamid Karzai said in his opening remarks to the conference in Kabul sponsored by the Afghan government [AP, 15 June].

“Whatever happens in Afghanistan affects us in one way or another,” said Ahmet Davutoglu, foreign minister of Turkey and co-chairman of the event. ‘In order to build confidence, one needs to commit to working together, to leave past negative memories behind and positively reconstruct future expectations.”

The 15 nations that participated in the conference were: Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, China, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Tajikistan, Turkey, Turkmenistan, United Arab Emirates and Uzbekistan. 

Russian FM Visits Tehran

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov flew into Tehran on Wednesday to discuss upcoming nuclear talks in Moscow.

“The Iranian side is interested in coming up with solutions which would contribute to the settlement of the nuclear issues,” Lavrov told reporters in Tehran after meeting Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi [AFP/IRNA, 14 June].

Salehi said he was “optimistic” about the prospects of the Moscow Talks.

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton had said on Tuesday that the Iranians were under tremendous pressure from the Russians and the Chinese to come to Moscow (18-19 June) prepared to respond to proposals by the six major powers to end the standoff on its nuclear program.

The P5+1 has asked Iran to halt its enrichment of uranium to 20 percent, ship out its stockpile of 20-percent uranium, halt enrichment at its Fordo facility and sign IAEA’s additional protocol for inspection of its nuclear sites. In return, the economic sanctions against the country would be lifted.

Iran-Saudi Rivalries at Upcoming OPEC Meeting

OPEC will be holding its ministerial meeting on Thursday. Iran-Saudi rivalry is expected to dominate the discussions on the level of crude production and its effect on oil prices. Iran is expected to push for production cuts, with Iraq supporting that position, and the Saudis will push for higher production levels to keep a lid on prices. The disagreements might be too deep to be resolved during the meeting and the 12-nation group will likely leave output unchanged.

Sanctions against Iran have already cut into exports of Iranian crude — from about 2.5 million barrels a day last year to reportedly between 1.2 and 1.8 million barrels now. The EU embargo on Iranian crude that goes into effect on 1 July will tighten the squeeze. It would then be in Iran’s interest to have all OPEC countries cut their production as well to keep the prices high, a very unlikely outcome. Iran is also concerned that the Saudis would increase supplies to soften the blow after the 1 July embargo of Iranian crude by the EU and has warned the Saudis against it.

“Saudi barrels have already been replaced Iranian barrels from the partial embargo in place, and they will replace even more barrels after July 1st,” said Jason Schenker of Prestige Economics. “As such, there is going to be some serious tension between the members at this OPEC meeting.”

Source: AP, 13 July 2012

Nuclear Fuel Swap To Be Discussed at Moscow Talks

The EU said today Iran has agreed to discuss the substance of a key proposal by the six major powers on its nuclear program, namely limiting uranium enrichment to below five percent purity in return for Western supplies of 20-percent nuclear fuel, during next week’s Moscow Talks. The agreement is considered a mini-breakthrough in the stalled talks [EUobserver.com, 12 June]. 

Turkey in Talks with Saudis on Oil Purchase

Turkey has begun talks with Saudi Arabia on long-term crude oil purchases, Turkish Energy Minister Taner Yildiz said today.

“Talks with Saudi Arabia on long-term crude oil purchases have started… Talks are still going on; they (Tupras and Saudi Aramco)will discuss the quantities between them," Yildiz told reporters [Reuters, 12 June].

Tupras refiner is Turkey’s main importer of Iranian crude. Meanwhile, the price of oil hit an eight-month low. Brent crude for July delivery was at $97.37 per barrel on London’s ICE Futures exchange.

Iran Nuclear Talks in Moscow May Be Delayed - Monitor

Christian Science Monitor, quoting unnamed Western and Iranian diplomats, reported today that the disconnect between Iran and the six world powers is so serious that talks scheduled for Moscow on 18-19 June may be postponed. 

Rezaie to Run for President

Mohsen Rezaie, the former IRGC commander and the publisher of the influential Tabnak news site, today declared his candidacy for next year’s presidential election. Rezaie withdrew from the last presidential election in 2009 that ended up in a dispute between Mousavi’s Green Movement and the establishment candidate and the sitting president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

“My participation in the upcoming presidential election of the Republic is certain. I'm in it to win it," Rezaie said [ILNA, 10 June].

Iran, Russia Have Offered Asylum to Assad - Post

The Washington Post reported today that Iran and Russia have offered political asylum to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The Post report suggested that he would probably go to Russia where he reportedly has transferred billions into his personal account in Moscow. 

The Washington Post also reported on an emerging road map to end the Syrian conflict, whereby a contact group consisting of the permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Qatar will be formed to oversee presidential election to choose Assad's successor and a constitutional parliamentary election to draft a new constitution.

The Russian foreign ministry, however, denied reports that Assad is seeking asylum in Russia.

Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Russia will not oppose Assad's departure if such a move is a result of a dialogue between Syrians themselves.

"If the Syrians agree (about Assad's departure) between each other, we will only be happy to support such a solution," Lavrov said. "But we believe it is unacceptable to impose the conditions for such a dialogue from outside."

Iran to Help Pro-Assad ‘Resistance’ Defeat Possible Military Attack

Brig. Gen. Massoud Jazaeri, a senior IRGC commander, said today that Iran was ready to mount a resistance against a possible military attack on Syria. He said the pro-Assad “resistance” would ensure that aggressors do not survive the conflict.

“A conflict in Syria will engulf the region and its main victims will be the people of Syria themselves,” Gen. Jazaeri said. “The Zionist regime and the interests of the enemies of Syria are all within range of the resistance fire.”

“The defeat of the enemy at this stage will be a big event and, God willing, we will witness that,” Jazaeri added [Mashregh, 9 June].

Mashragh had earlier reported that Iran’s armed forces had formed a joint war room with officers from “the Syrian resistance,” which includes Iran, Syria and Hezbollah.

IAEA-Iran Fail to Make Agreement on Parchin

The IAEA said it made no progress in talks with Iran on Friday to seal a deal on resuming a long-stalled investigation into Parchin military complex. On 22 May, IAEA Director Yukiya Amano had announced that an agreement in principle had been reached with Iran during his visit to Tehran on probing disputed work on nuclear weapons at Parchin and the agreement was to be signed soon.

China Urges Iran To Show Flexibility, Pragmatism

Chinese President Hu Jintao has urged Iran “to show flexibility and pragmatism” during the upcoming talks with world powers on the country’s nuclear program.

“China hopes the Iranian side can weigh up the situation, take a flexible and pragmatic approach, have serious talks with all six related nations, and enhance dialogues and cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency so as to ensure the tensions can be eased through negotiations,” President Hu told the visiting Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, according to a statement issued by the Chinese Foreign Ministry [Xinhua, 8 June].

Photo Credit: Chinese President Hu Jintao meeting Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Beijing. Friday 8 June 2012. AP  

Inflation @ 24%

The Central Bank of Iran (CBI) reported today that the inflation rate in Farvardin (21 March-20 April) compared to the same period last year was at 23.9 percent [ISNA, 8 June].

France to Host “Friends of Syria” Meeting

France will host the third meeting of “Friends of Syria,” a gathering of countries that back the departure of the embattled Syrian President Bashar al-Assad on 6 July in Paris.

“We consider in France that Bashar al-Assad is an assassin and the sooner he leaves power, the better," said French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius [AFP, 7 June].

About 50 nations, including the United States, Britain, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, will take part.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Bernard Valero said that neighboring Iran would not be invited to participate.

“The Iranian regime until now has without fail supported Bashar al-Assad and the bloody repression of his people,” Valero said. “In this context, it is not possible to have it associated with resolving the Syrian crisis.”

Many of the participating countries, like France and Qatar, favor placing the implementation of the UN’s six-point peace plan, known as Annan’s peace plan, under chapter 7 of UN Charter, allowing member countries to use all the necessary means, including military intervention, to end the conflict in Syria, as it was done in Libya. The veto-yielding Russia and China, however, would likely block the move, with the possibility of a coalition of countries outside UNSC framework to plan its own alternatives, including a military option.

Meanwhile, Kofi Annan today told e meeting of the UN Security Council that the Syrian government was the main culprit for the failure of his peace initiative in the country. He told the UNSC that there must be "consequences" for those obstructing efforts to end the conflict.

Saudi Arabia, GCC Seek Failure of Iran Nuclear Talks - Rezaie

Mohsen Rezaei, the executive director of Iran’s Expediency Council and the publisher of the influential Tabnak news site, said today that some Arab governments, implying Saudi Arabia and other GCC countries, are actively pushing for the failure of talks between Iran and the world’s major powers over the country’s nuclear program.

“Some of the regional Arab governments, out of their animosity with the Islamic Republic of Iran, seek to push for the failure of Iran's talks with the Western (powers),” Rezaei said.

“The political strategy of these countries for the failure of the negotiations is to either get Iran involved in a military confrontation or coerce it into yielding to the (U.S.) pressures,” Rezaie, a former IRGC commander, added [Tabnak/Press TV, 7 June].

Iran’s Membership at SCO Reportedly Opposed by Russia

Russian news agencies are reporting that Russia has opposed Iran’s full membership at Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) until the country remains under UN Security Council sanctions. Iran now has an observer status at SCO. President Ahmadinejad is attending the SCO summit in Beijing and Iran has pushed hard for full membership at SCO, a move that has apparently faced the Russian opposition.

Meanwhile, the SCO has issued a statement denouncing as “unacceptable” the use of force against Iran over its nuclear program.

Photo Credit: SCO Summit. Beijing. 7 June 2012. President Ahmadinejad is fifth from right. IRNA photo.

Iran President in China for SCO Summit

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad arrived in China on Tuesday night to attend the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) taking place in Beijing on Wednesday and Thursday. Iran, along with Mongolia, India and Pakistan, hold observer status at SCO. China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kirghizstan are the organization’s full members. 

Today, the Chinese and Russian presidents issued a joint statement at the end of their meeting in Beijing calling for a peaceful resolution to Iran’s nuclear issue. The statements said that the efforts should be made to prevent the Iranian situation from escalating into military confrontation.