Canada Closes Embassy in Tehran

Expels Iranian Diplomats in Canada

Canada has suspended diplomatic relations with Iran, closing its embassy in Tehran and giving all Iranian diplomats in Canada five days to leave the country. Canadian Foreign Minister John Baird called Iran the biggest threat to global security. Baird cited Iran's nuclear program, its hostility toward Israel and Iranian military assistance to the government of President Bashar al-Assad of Syria. He also said Iran is a state sponsor of terrorism.

"Canada views the government of Iran as the most significant threat to global peace and security in the world today," Baird said. (Reuters, 7 September)

Canada's 10 diplomats in Iran have already left Tehran. There are currently 17 Iranian diplomats in Canada.

"Iranian diplomats in Ottawa have been instructed to leave within five days," Baird said.

What an "isolated" Iran looks like

by Amir Taheri

Two weeks ago we saw the Iraqi Prime Minister Maleki heading to Iran to seek its support for a new government. The press has reported that he was rewarded after months of behind the scenes discussions with Al Sadr and Iran. Last week we saw Ahmadinejad with cheering crowds in Lebanon. Then we saw "brothers" one from as far as South America Hugo Chavez hugging the Iranian President in Tehran. Chavez took the 3 days to give the West a big fat 11 finger wave (11 agreements signed mostly in oil, gas, and petrochemical in the areas that Europe and the US promised to sanction any country that invested in Iran). It almost seemed like there is just too much going on in Tehran these days as the Prime minister of Armenia and the president of Bolivia both arrived in Tehran on the same day. Iran's Vice president picked up the Armenian guest and Ahmadinejad made the courtesy to meet the head of state traveling the farthest, President Evo Morales of Bolivia. In between these state visits, Ahmadinejad squeezed in two phone calls with the Saudi King. Apart from the great photos and opportunity to show publicly Iran's regional power, these two conversations with the Saudi King are what probably was the most important thing that has happened in the last couple of weeks. The Israeli newspaper Haaretz is reporting that these calls have been about coming to an understanding between the two countries on how to split their spheres of influence in Iraq and Lebanon. As it seems that both in Lebanon and Iraq, Iran's star is rising and Saudi Arabia's millions invested have had no returns, Saudi Arabia is coming to the realization that it is better to come to an agreement with Iran before losing completely all influence in these two countries.

It seems though that something surprising happened. Europe and the US have been pushing Saudi Arabia for the last 2-3 years to pull Syria away from its alliance with Iran. Countless promises have been made by both the European, US, and recently the Saudis for billions in investments opportunities and to bring Syria into the "civilized world" of nations if it complies. As these have all been rejected by Syria, the surprising thing that is still playing out before our eyes is that it seems with Ahmadinajad's picking up a phone and calling the Saudi's last week the Iranians have been able to turn the tables on the West. The kingdom of Saudi Arabia has seen the cards that have been played in Lebanon and Iraq and with President Assad meeting the Saudi King in Riyadh two weeks ago, what might have been happening then was the Syrians pushing the Saudi's into an agreement with Iran instead. This doesn't mean that we will see an alliance between Iran and Saudi Arabia happening any time soon but it is for sure signs of improvement in relations ahead. The words of a Saudi recently interviewed by Al Jazeera seem almost foretelling of the future "Iran is not the enemy, Israel is the enemy," the head of the Center for Strategic Studies in Saudi Arabia declared in an interview with Al Jazeera. An American spokesman recently claimed Iran is becoming more and more isolated day after day. Iran isolated? Ask the Iraqis, Venezualians, Armenians, Lebenones, Bolivians, Saudis, and Syrians what they think after only the last two weeks.

Reference

Iran: One Cool Nuclear Negotiator

by Mark Pyruz

There is a mistaken impression in the West that Iran perceives itself the focus of an international demand to relinquish the majority of its low-enriched uranium, in order to prevent its imminent manufacturing of a nuclear weapon. For their part, the Iranian perspective is completely different.

Contrary to Western perceptions, the current deal put forward by the E3+3/P5+1 is not the initial proposal for refueling the Tehran Research Reactor (TRR). That initial proposal was publicly put forward last September in New York by President Ahmadinejad, where he offered to purchase medium enriched uranium from existing nuclear fuel suppliers (including the United States). Subsequently, at the Geneva 2 talks, the West and Russia provided a counter-proposal that Iran ship 1200 kilograms of its LEU to Russia by January 15, to be converted to medium-enriched uranium, whereupon France would fashion the product into fuel rods for shipment back to Iran. This complicated arrangement was explored "in principle" in Geneva and later worked on still further in subsequent talks held in Vienna. At the conclusion of those talks, a target date for a decision by all powers present was put forward by ElBaradei for the following Friday. However, the Iranians understood this date as a time frame, and surely anything but a demand. Throughout all of this, it's important to realize that Iran is not looking at this process in terms of diplomatic demand. Rather, it views this as an ongoing negotiation process being managed by the IAEA.

This nuclear proposal has since been formally introduced to Iran's decision makers. Predictably, there are quite a few who find the offer highly dubious. For starters, there is a very poor track record for both France and Russia, in regards to these two countries living up to their word in previous nuclear agreements with Iran. Thirty years ago Iran put up more than $1 billion dollars to help build a French nuclear reactor in return for access to that reactor's fuel. To date, the French have never delivered any amount of fuel- not one iota. Likewise, roughly fifteen years ago Iran signed a contract with a Russian firm to complete the Bushehr nuclear facility. What's transpired since then is an endless stream of broken promises, missed schedules and arbitrary work stoppages. To this day, Bushehr remains less than fully operational. These are the two partners Iran is expected to do business with in this proposed nuclear deal. In addition to this, there are legitimate concerns that while Iran's LEU stock is away, in further nuclear negotiations down the road, the West may try to leverage its returned fuel by imposing additional conditions for its release.

Details are sketchy of Iran's decision making, but we can make out three Iranian nuclear proposals (to the West's one) put forward in this ongoing negotiation process:

1) Iran offers to purchase the nuclear fuel required for TRR from an existing supplier.
2) Iran offers to further enrich its own LEU stock into fuel stock inside Iran for TRR, under the strict technical supervision of the IAEA (a benefit stipulated under the terms of the NPT), possibly in partnership with another country.
3) Iran may be offering to accept the current deal offered by the West with some modifications, such as transferring its LEU stock in installments. Also, Iran may yet accept the current deal as it now stands.

It's interesting to note that at this point in time, certain Western officials and media outlets are depicting this ongoing negotiation process in a dire and negative light; while in stark contrast, President Ahmadinejad publicly praises the effort. Right now, the ball seems somewhere near mid-court. One thing appears likely: it will not be the Iranians that decide to break off negotiations, if that's how this ultimately plays out.

One item of significance which seems absent from Iran's internal public debate is any talk of rejecting further negotiation based on the recent Jundallah terrorist attack in southeastern Iran. Iran maintains substantiated claims of Western support for Jundallah (see here and here), yet the Iranians haven't so much as missed a beat in their continued engagement with the nuclear negotiation process. Just imagine for a second if the United States, France or the United Kingdom had suffered a terrorist attack with any sort of linkage back to the Islamic Republic of Iran; how that would have affected the nuclear talks! Nor did the Iranians wilt under the West's bombastic assertions over its disclosure of the Qom pilot enrichment facility.

No, the West is being shown that it faces a cool yet reserved negotiator. It's not in the West's interest to attempt negotiations in bad faith or to critically overestimate the amount of leverage it has over Iran. For Iran may not need this deal as much as the West thinks it does, while Iran retains the option of the status quo.

Acknowledgments to Arnold Evans, Muhammad Sahimi and Mahan Abedin

Indian Sukhois Denied Overflight By Iran

From the Times of India:

India’s top-notch Sukhoi-30MKIs were inadvertently caught in the middle of the bitter US-Iran feud when Tehran refused permission to the fighter jets to fly over its territory on way to the US in July to take part in Red Flag air combat exercise.

This has come to light now after the IAF contingent of eight Sukhois, two IL-78 mid-air refuellers and an IL-76 heavy-lift aircraft, along with 91 officers and 156 airmen, returned to India last week after the gruelling world-famous wargames at the Nellis US Air Force base in Nevada.

Sources said IAF’s ‘‘initial routing plan through Iran’’ went completely haywire after Tehran refused permission to its aircraft to overfly its territory just a few days before they were scheduled to take off from Pune and other airbases on July 7. ‘‘Iran made it very clear that if you are flying to the US, you cannot fly over our country. This sent the IAF team scrambling to chart out an alternate route and arrange more visas for the entire team,’’ said a source.

The ‘‘new routing’’ saw the IAF contingent taking ‘‘an awkward, circuitous path’’, with the Sukhois and other aircraft first heading for Qatar (Doha) and then flying over Egypt before finally heading north to Turkey (Corlu). After a stopover at Corlu on July 11, they crossed the Mediterranean to land at the French airbase Mont De Marsan before finally reaching the US mainland on July 17 after hopping through Lajes (Portugal) in a mind-boggling 19,212-km journey, interspersed by mid-air refuelling over the high seas.

Iranian Investment in Iraq

From the Washington Times:

Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki told participants at an international conference attended by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice that companies from the Islamic Republic were outpacing most others in the region in their contributions to Iraq's economic development.

"Iranian companies have undertaken some economic projects and public works in Iraq to contribute to the economic development of this country, both in the south and in the north," Mr. Mottaki said at the Stockholm conference.

He did not elaborate on private investment, but he offered more details on Iranian government-funded undertakings in Iraq's railroad, electricity and oil sectors. "To meet Iraq's intense need for electricity, a contract for construction of nine power transmission lines from Iran to Iraq with a capacity of 2,000 megawatts has been signed," he said.

At the same time, Iraqi Vice President Adil Abdul Mahdi is in Tehran visiting President Ahmadinejad, for the purpose of discussions on economic issues and services, as well as political and security matters.

News from Iran

The parliamentary elections in Iran dominated media coverage. The hard-liners, or the “principlists,” won a majority of seats decided in the first round. But principlists were divided in two competing factions. Radical Pro-Ahmadinejad United Front of Priniplists (UFP) won 35% of the seats while the traditional conservatives, Inclusive Coalition of Principlists (ICP), also won 35%. The reformists and independents won 30%. Editorials in reformist newspapers expressed belief that the new parliament, with a majority critical of Ahmadinejad’s polices, would challenge the president on major policy issues. On nuclear front, Iran rejected any talks with world powers over its nuclear program.

Leading Domestic Storylines

· First round of elections for Iran’s parliament were held on 14 March; results for 190 seats (out of 290 seats) were decided during first round; 58% of eligible Iranians cast their votes; remaining seats are to be decided in second round of voting next month.
· Election results indicated “principlists” (fundamentalists) won 70% of seats decided in first round; reformists and independents captured 30%; principlists were divided into two groups, United Front of Priniplists (UFP) and Inclusive Coalition of Principlists (ICP); pro-Ahmadinejad UFP was expected to receive 35% of seats; the conservative ICP, which includes many critics of Ahmadinezhad, is also expected to control 35% of seats.
· The government was being accused by both the reformists and the conservative opponents of Ahmadinejad of committing irregularities at polling stations and in vote counting; election workers and observers were the same people in many voting places; representatives of opposition candidates were banned from observing the process; opponents complained of “numerous violations” by the pro-government UFP on the elections day and during the vote-counting process.
· The critics of the government had already held it responsible for the disqualification of numerous reformist and moderate candidates for the 14 March elections; they had warned against the government’s tendency to increasingly act as if it were an absolute monarchy.
· Iran slams “opportunist” EU election stance; Tehran accused EU and other Western critics of “unacceptable behavior and political manipulation” after calling Iran elections “unfair”; EU said disqualifying candidates in pre-vote vetting meant election “was neither fair nor free.”
· US claimed Iran election results “cooked”; State Department Spokesman Sean McCormack said Iranians were not able to vote for “full range” of candidates; Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini called Western criticism of Iran election “unacceptable behavior and political manipulation.”
· Iranian security forces destroyed “terrorist cells” on Iraqi border; “all members of two terrorist cells were killed and many arms have been seized,” said Iraj Hassanzadeh, spokesman for Iranian Kurdistan province; Iran has been fighting Kurdish separatist rebels of the Party of Free Life of Kurdistan (PJAK)); Iranian military also shelled three Iraqi border villages, apparently aimed at PJAK bases in the area.
· Iran warned Dutch lawmaker's anti-Quran film would “breed violence”; Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Mehdi Safari said Geert Wilders’s film should be banned for “just requirements of morality, public order and the general welfare in a democratic society.”
· The Iranian government banned pictures of foreign film stars, including those of Nicole Kidman and Reese Witherspoon; nine cinemas and lifestyle magazines were banned for publishing images of “corrupt” foreign stars.

The Regional Storylines

· Iran said it spares no efforts to help Afghans; Iran's Deputy Ambassador to UN Mehdi Danesh-Yazdi said Iran has consistently provided help to Kabul for its reconstruction and economic development; Danesh-Yazdi said impacts of Iran's assistance to Afghanistan were evident in the daily lives of Afghan people.
· Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki is to attend this month's Arab summit hosted by Syria; Arab Summit is expected to be dominated by political crisis in Lebanon; standoff between Hezbollah-led opposition and pro-government parties prevented election of Lebanese president; Iran insists it wants to see a solution in Lebanon acceptable to all religious and ethnic groups.
· Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad attended Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC) Summit in Senegal; Ahmadunejad delivered speech on Islamic solidarity at OIC summit; summit condemned Danish media insulting Islam.
· Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad called for joint action with Iraq, Turkey against PKK; speaking at OIC summit in Dakar, Ahmadinejad said three countries needed to work together if the PKK separatists were to be defeated.

Iran’s International Relations

· Iran dismissed bilateral talks with US; Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini said bilateral talks with the US are not on “Tehran's working agenda.”
· President Bush extended US sanctions against Iran for another year; Bush sent a notice to Congress alleging that Iran “remains a threat to the US”; Iran sanctions were first imposed by President Clinton in 1995.
· Deployment of US missiles in Middle East is doomed, Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini said; Hosseini said such plan will “trigger an arms race”, he added US missile base in Turkey is “military and security threat” to the region.
· Qatar warned of frenzied oil prices in case of US attack on Iran; Qatar's Energy Minister Abdullah bin Hamad Al Attiyah warned crude oil prices could reach $300 per barrel or more if US were to attack Iran.
· Iran is to set up a television network in Bolivia; in February, Iran opened an embassy in La Paz; Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) would install three TV channels in Bolivia.
· Iran praised Scotland's anti-war stance; Iranian Ambassador to Britain Rasoul Movahedian said Iran and Scotland shared “similar views” on many issues such as the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
· Pakistan Navy Mission comprising submarine Hurmat, Mine Counter Vessel Muhafiz, Missile Boat Jurrat, and Coastal Tanker Gawadar arrived on a goodwill-training cruise to Iran.

Iran’s Nuclear Program

· Iran rejected any talks with world powers over its nuclear program; “the issue of nuclear talks with 5+1 countries is over,” government spokesman Qolam Hossein Elham said; Elham confirmed remarks by President Ahmadinejad that Iran was strongly against any talks between EU foreign policy chief Solana and Iran's top nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili; “IAEA is the only legal body for this issue,” Elham added.
· Iran ready to talk on nuclear issue; Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini said Tehran has never said it was not ready to talk over its nuclear activities.