Khamenei Approves JCPOA

Cautions against Sanctions; Attacks Obama for Regime Change Policy

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei today gave his final approval to the JCPOA, the nuclear deal with world powers. In a letter to President Rouhani, announcing his approval of JCPOA, Khamenei cautioned against the “ambiguities and structural frailties” of the agreement that “can bring huge damages” to Iran. He also harshly attacks President Obama for “lies” about not being after regime change in Tehran and the U.S. behavior at nuclear negotiations for advancing “hostile policies” against the Islamic Republic. (@khamenei_ir/Twitter, 21 October)

In the letter, Khamenei demands that President Obama and the EU issue written orders for complete removal of all sanctions against Iran. He adds that “throughout the 8-year term of JCPOA, imposition of any sanctions at any level and under any pretext (including repetitive and fabricated excuses like terrorism and human rights) from any of the negotiating countries, will be considered as the violation of JCPOA, Iranian government is obliged to take necessary measures and cease implementation of the JCPOA.” 

The latter could be problematic for the implementation of the agreement, as the JCPOA does not deal with issues of human rights and terrorism in Iran. It specifically lifts only the nuclear-related sanctions imposed by the UN, the U.S. and EU against the country. In facts signatories like the U.S. maintain non-nuclear sanctions that predate the ones imposed against the Iranian nuclear program.

Khamenei reiterates that the reconfiguration of Arak (IR-40) heavy water reactor and shipping out the country’s current stockpile of higher-enriched uranium could only begin after the IAEA certifies that the Iranian nuclear program never had any possible military dimensions (PMD). IAEA is to file its final report on PMD on 15 December. Based on the agreement, if IAEA does not clear Iran on PMD issue, the JCPOA could not be implemented anyway.

In his letter, Khamenei harshly attacked the United States and President Obama. He said Obama’s claims in his two letters to him that he was not after regime change in Iran “proved as a lie.” Khamenei did not explain what actions Obama has taken that could be seen as attempts to overthrow the Islamic Republic. He also attacked the U.S. behavior during the nuclear negotiations that led to JCPOA, saying “U.S. deceptive involvement in nuclear talks has been intended to advance their hostile policies towards Iran.” He did not explain what those hostile policies were and why did he approve an agreement that had hostilities toward Iran at its root.

JCPOA Joint Commission

Iranian and EU delegates pictured at the first meeting of the JCPOA Joint Commission, which oversees the implementation of the nuclear treaty. Iran and world powers are members of the commission. (Photo: IranPulse)

Adoption Day: Iran Nuclear Deal Goes into Effect

Today the JCPOA, the landmark nuclear accord placing limits on Iran’s nuclear work in exchange for lifting of sanctions against the country, today goes into effect. Below is a timeline on how we got to this date and what is expected next.

14 July: Iran and world powers signed the JCPOA in Vienna.
IAEA and Iran agreed on necessary arrangements to implement transparency measures of the accord.

20 July: UN Security Council unanimously issued UNSCR 2231 endorsing the JCPOA. The resolution set out conditions for removal of previous Security Council resolutions imposing sanctions against Iran and closure of the Iranian nuclear file at the Security Council.

15 August – 15 October: Iran and IAEA completed discussions on possible military dimensions (PMD) to the Iranian nuclear program. Iran provided explanations, documents and samples to IAEA regarding the remaining PMD issues. IAEA confirmed Iranian compliance.

18 September: U.S. Congress review period of JCPOA ended without any resolution of disapproval passed; making the U.S. the first among the P5+1 and Iran to adopt the agreement. EU has also adopted JCPOA.

13 October: Iranian parliament, Majlis, approved the JCPOA; on 14 October, Iran’s Guardian Council ratified the bill passed by Majlis, making JCPOA the law of the country.

Sunday 18 October: Adoption Day
JCPOA comes into effect. All sides begin to implement provisions of the deal.

• Iran informs IAEA it will provisionally implement the Additional Protocol (AP) and Modified Code 3.1, and begins implementing PMD roadmap. 
• The U.S. prepares to cease application of nuclear-related sanctions.
• EU adopts regulations to terminate nuclear-related sanctions.
• JCPOA participants begin work on redesign of Arak (IR-40) heavy water reactor.

And what's next?

15 December: IAEA provides final assessment of the resolution of PMD issues.

Implementation Day: Contingent on IAEA Verification

• Prior to Implementation Day, Iran will have to be in compliance with the provisions of JCPOA, as verified by IAEA. 
• Dismantling of Arak (IR-40) heavy water reactor in its present configuration; reducing the number of centrifuges in Natanz to 5,060 IR-1; removing IR-2M and IR-4 centrifuges; removing all nuclear materials from Fordo; reducing 3.5-enriched uranium stockpile to 300 kg; diluting all higher-grade enriched uranium stockpile; and implementing AP and modified code 3.1. 
• UNSC terminates all previous resolutions on Iran and the new UNSCR 2231 goes into effect, maintaining specific restrictions on arms imports and export and the country’s ballistic missiles. 
• The United States suspends the so-called secondary sanctions on non-U.S. persons related to nuclear issue affecting oil and banking sectors; lifts civilian aviation-related sanctions and ends restrictions on imports of food and rugs from Iran. 
• EU lifts virtually all nuclear-related sanctions.
• Sanctions could be re-imposed (“snap back”) if Iran fails to comply with its commitments, as verified by IAEA.
• IAEA will verify Iran’s compliance with JCPOA listed measures and will provide regular updates on the JCPOA to its Board of Governors and the UNSC.

Adoption Day + 5 Years: Arms import and export restrictions lifted by UNSC.

Transition Day: Adoption Day + 8 Years

• Iran ratifies the Additional Protocol.
• UNSC restrictions on ballistic missiles are lifted
• U.S. seeks legislative termination of sanctions suspended on Implementation Day.
• EU terminates all remaining nuclear-related sanctions

Termination Day: Adoption Day + 10 Years

• UNSCR 2231 is terminated and UNSC officially closes Iran’s nuclear file.

Post-Termination: Adoption + 15 or more Years

• Continued IAEA enhanced monitoring for 15 years
• IAEA monitoring for uranium ore concentrate for 25 years

JCPOA Becomes Law

Iran’s Guardian Council today ratified the bill passed by Majlis, the Iranian parliament, on the nuclear deal with the six world powers, making JCPOA the law of the country.

Majlis Approves Implementaion of Nuclear Deal

The Iranian parliament, Majlis, today gave its final approval to JCPOA, the nuclear deal with the world powers. With 161 in favor, 56 against and 13 abstentions, the Majlis passed a bill allowing the Iranian government to implement JCPOA.

46 MPs boycotted today's Majlis session and 11 MPs present did not vote. So the total number of MPs voting against, or not voting, or boycotting the session was 116, corresponding to 100 MPs voting against the general outline of JCPOA on Sunday.

Photo: Majlis MP Hamis Rasaie holding up a sign during the voting that reads, “This is a blatant violation of law. Majlis is not a rubber stamp.” (Tasnim)

Iran’s Role in IAEA Probe Meets Standards - Amano

IAEA chief Yukiya Amano said today Iran’s role in IAEA investigation of any past work on nuclear weapons meets the nuclear watchdog agency’s strict standards. Amano acknowledged that samples used so far in determining whether Iran tried to develop a nuclear weapon at Parchin military site were collected by the Iranian experts, but added their probe was within the IAEA guidelines.

Meanwhile, IAEA deputy director Tero Varjoranta, who along with Amano visited Parchin military site yesterday, said the criteria at Parchin included invasive monitoring by video and still cameras while the sampling took place; GPS tracking of sampling process; IAEA agreement on where the samples were to be taken; review by peers of the inspection process; risk assessment and strict observance to make sure the the procedures were followed step by step. (AP, 21 September)
 

Amano Visits Parchin

IAEA Secretary-General Yukiya Amano on Sunday visited Parchin military site, suspected of being a venue for past nuclear weapons work by Iran. The surprise visit was part of IAEA’s investigation of possible military dimensions (PMD) to the country’s nuclear program. Tero Varjoranta, IAEA’s department head for safeguards, accompanied Amano in the visit to Parchin.

IAEA is expected to release its findings by the end of this year, and if favorable to Iran it would jumpstart the process of the lifting of sanctions against the country. 

The Iranian supreme leader and senior military officers always insisted that foreigners would not be allowed to visit any military site. Amano and Varjoranta were no Iranians!

During his one-day trip to Tehran, Amano also met with President Rouhani and Foreign Minister Zarif and attended a meeting at Majlis’s special commission reviewing the JCPOA.

IAEA Inspectors to Visit Iran Tuesday

IAEA inspectors will visit Iran on Tuesday as part of their investigation into the alleged past activities related to nuclear weapons at Parchin military complex, 30 km (19 miles) south of Tehran. The investigation is part of the nuclear deal, JCPOA, signed on 14 July between Iran and P5+1 and approved by the UN Security Council. IAEA has said it will conclude its investigation by 14 October, and will complete its final report on the subject by 15 December. The implementation process of the nuclear accord cannot begin before the IAEA report.

Reuters reported today that as part of a side agreement between Iran and the IAEA, the agency’s inspector alongside the Iranian scientists will visit Parchin to take samples from inside the buildings where the nuclear weaponization work was suspected to have taken place. It was not clear if the taking samples at Parchin will occur during Tuesday’s IAEA visit to Tehran or on a later date.

“The IAEA will be present when the Iranians take the samples at Parchin. This approach to managed access is something that’s fairly standard in the IAEA toolbox,” a Western diplomat knowledgable of IAEA work in Iran said. (Reuters, 12 September)

Senate Blocks Measure Against Nuclear Deal

The U.S. Senate voted 58-42, short of 60 votes needed, on a measure to consider Iran nuclear deal, JCPOA; effectively blocking a vote of disapproval. The procedural vote was nonetheless a major victory for President Obama, sparing him from the need for a veto to safeguard the deal.

Obama Gains 41 Senate Votes to Uphold Iran Deal

President Obama gains 41 U.S. Senate votes to block any congressional disapproval bill and uphold the Iran nuclear accord.

White House: Sanctions Relief Only if Iran Complies with All Requirements of JCPOA

The White House spokesman Josh Earnest said on Thursday that Iran will only see sanctions relief if it complies with all the requirements of JCPOA, the nuclear deal with world powers.

The comments came hours after Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned that Iran would only suspend its nuclear activities if sanctions were not lifted completely. JCPOA says sanctions relief kicks in as Iran dismantles and redesigns parts of its program, and not just suspending them.

On Wednesday, Secretary of State John Kerry said Iran will be required to live up to the agreement in full before it starts benefitting from sanctions relief.

Khamenei Calls for Majlis Review of Nuclear Deal

If Sanctions Are Not Lifted Completely, Iran Will Only Suspend Its Nuclear Program - Khamenei

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei today backed a parliamentary vote on the nuclear deal, and demanded lifting of all sanctions before Iran dismantles any parts of its nuclear progarm.

“I believe, and I have said it to President (Rouhani), that it is not right to sideline the Majlis (Iranian parliament) on the (nuclear) deal,” Khamenei said. “I am not saying how the review should proceed or whether the lawmakers should approve the deal or reject it. It is up to them, as representatives of the people, to decide.” (IRNA, 3 September)

Khamenei made the remarks a day after President Obama gathered enough supporters in the United States Senate to veto an expected disapproval vote on the deal by Congress and sustain it.

In his speech today, Khamenei also said that as part of the deal sanctions should be lifted completely, and not just suspended.

“Sanctions imposed on Iran should be lifted and not only suspended… If not, then we will only suspend our nuclear activities,” Khamenei said. (IRIB/IRNA, 3 September)

The nuclear agreement, JCPOA, would suspend sanctions in phases as Iran complies with its commitments to dismantle/redesign different parts of its nuclear program, and will remove them completely upon full compliance by Iran of all its commitments. Khamenei’s call today for lifting of all sanctions completely before Iran makes concrete steps to dismantle/redesign parts of the program could probably bring about the collapse of the JCPOA.

Now the most likely course of action is for the Majlis to approve a revised version of the deal, incorporating Khamenei's conditions, which would probably not be acceptable to P5+1. Khamenei made his stance on the issue clear today, and the Majlis will be expected to follow him.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani had earlier said that the Majlis review of the deal was not required or necessary and instead he had sent the agreement to the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) for review, where an approval was expected.

Photo credit: Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei flanked by country’s senior leaders; Tehran, 3 September 2015 (Fars News Agency)

Kayhan: Supreme Leader Opposes JCPOA

Hossein Shariatmadari, the influential editor of Kayhan (appointed to the position by Ayatollah Khamenei), claimed in an editorial published on Saturday that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is opposed to the nuclear agreement with the world powers, JCPOA.

Khamenei has not publicly approved or disapproved the deal, and Shariatmadari’s editorial is the first serious indication that he is actually opposing the JCPOA. Members of Iran’s negotiating team had said publicly that the supreme leader were continually briefed on the progress of the talks and had sent messages to the negotiating team regarding the issues under discussion. His opposition to JCPOA, if Shariatmadari understands it correctly, would be a blow to the deal.

Shariatmadari said in the editorial, entitled ‘The Only Choice Facing Us.’ that many parts of the deal threatens Iran’s independence, security and the “sacred system of the Islamic Republic of Iran” and would be “disastrous” if Tehran implemented the accord. (Kayhan, 15 August)

Iran’s parliament (Majlis) or the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) will consider the agreement in the coming days. Senior leaders in Iran are divided on which institution needs to give its final approval or disapproval to the deal, Majlis or SNSC. Khamenei’s ruling on this issue would determine which body would examine the JCPOA.

The hardliners like Shariatmadari prefer that Majlis disapproves the deal. Some hardliners, like military chief Gen. Hassan Firouzabadi, prefer the Majlis not even consider the deal, fearing an approval by the body would make the defense-related provisions in the agreement, limitations on ballistic missile program and arms imports, binding for Iran.

For Farsi readers, please click here to read Shaiatmadari’s editorial.

File photo: Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (AFP)