Yet another poll mirrors official 2009 Iran presidential election results

A recent poll taken by the International Peace Institute with Charney Research shows results consistent with three previous polls by other organizations, mirroring closely the official results of Iran's 2009 presidential election. In addition, by a solid majority Iranians support Islamic Republic governance as well as support Iranian law enforcement efforts during the post-2009 election demonstrations. Iran's nuclear program also enjoys majority support, including an aversion to dealing aspects of it away. Link to the complete poll and methodology available here.


Iran Public Opinion 2010 -

What Does the Iranian Public Really Think?

The New America Foundation/Iran Initiative hosted an event Wednesday to discuss what the Iranian public really thinks on key issues and the implications for US foreign policy. One of the speakers was Steven Kull, Director of WorldPublicOpinion.org.

Mr. Kull presented an analysis of multiple polls which consistently find little evidence to support the contention that the Iranian public sees its government as illegitimate. His report addressed the following:

Indications of fraud in the June 12 Iranian presidential election, together with large-scale street demonstrations, have led to claims that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad did not actually win the election, and that the majority of Iranians perceive their government as illegitimate and favor regime change. An analysis of multiple polls of the Iranian public from three different sources finds little evidence to support such conclusions.

The analysis conducted by the Program on International Policy Attitudes at the University of Maryland (PIPA), was based on:

• a series of 10 recently-released polls conducted by the University of Tehran; eight conducted in the month before the June 12 election and two conducted in the month after the election, based on telephone interviews conducted within Iran

• a poll by GlobeScan conducted shortly after the election, based on telephone interviews conducted within Iran

• a poll by WorldPublicOpinion.org (managed by PIPA) conducted August 27--September 10, based on telephone interviews made by calling into Iran

Links to the available data and analysis:

• Analysis of Multiple Polls

• Full Report

• Questionnaire with Findings, Methodology for All Three Surveys (PDF)

• WPO Dataset for Downlaod (SPSS Format)

• GlobeScan Dataset for Download (SPSS Format)

Video recorded of The New America Foundation/Iran Initiative event, including presentations by Steven Kull, Jon Cohen, Flynt Leverett, Hooman Majd and Barbara Slavin:


What Does the Iranian Public Really Think - Panel 1


What Does the Iranian Public Really Think - Panel 2

Iran's Presidents: 1980 - 2009

4 February 1980- 22 June 1981: Abolhassan Banisadr, the first president of Iran following the abolition of monarchy, received 79% of the votes; removed from office by the Supreme Leader, Imam Khomeini, on 22 June 1981; fled the country and went into exile in Paris on 10 July 1981.

15-30 August 1981: Mohammad Ali Rajai, assassinated by a bomb blast planted by MKO in his office after only 14 days serving as president.

2 October 1981- 3 August 1989: Ali Khamenei, became president in a landslide victory with 95% of the votes, re-elected for a second term; succeeded Imam Khomeini as Islamic Republic’s second supreme leader upon Khomeini’s death on 3 June 1989 (serving for more than 2 months as both the president and the supreme leader); Khamenei has been the country’s top leader for nearly 20 years.

3 August 1989- 2 August 1997: Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani; dubbed as the "reconstuction" president for his efforts to jump start the economy after eight years of war with Iraq, re-elected to a second term; currently chairman of the Assembly of Expert and the Expediency Council.

2 August 1997 – 3 August 2005: Mohammad Khatami; dubbed as the "reformist" president for his government's support of basic freedoms of Iranian citizens; won a surprising victory in 1997 as the head of a popular movement known as 2 Khordad Movement, re-elected with even larger margin; remains an active and popular ex-president.

3 August 2005- Present: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad; the sixth president (because his three predecessors each served two terms in office, his administration is called the "Ninth Government"), running for reelection on 12 June as the main principlist (hardliner) candidate.

20 June 2009: First round of presidential elections; four candidates selected by the Guardian Council, from top left: Mehdi Karrubi, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (incumbent), Mohsen Rezaie and Mir Hossein Mousavi.

Terms in Office: The presidential terms are for four years. Each person can not be elected to more than two consecutive terms, but can run again after being out of office for at least one term (Rafsanjani ran and lost to Ahmdinejad in 2005, and Khatami started his campaign this year only to withdraw after Mousavi declared his candidacy).

Selection Process: A governmental body, the Guardian Council, selects candidates deemed to be acceptable to the Islamic Republic. This year, the Council chose four candidates (pictured above). Many highly-qualified candidates, including a former interior minister in Khatami administration, did not even run, being certain that their candidacies would be disapproved by the Guardian Council on political grounds. The selection process by the Guardian Council has continuously tainted the legitimacy of the electoral process in the Islamic Republic.

The Title: The title of president is misleading for the office. Iran's presidents are equivalent to prime ministers. The "Leader," commonly referred to in English as the Supreme Leader, is not only the head of state but holds executive power over the most crucial branches of the government, including the military and the judiciary. Combined with the fact that the Leaders serve for lifetime, they are equivalent to the shahs of Iran.