The Question of Bahrain, the Three Islands and Iran

On Sunday, the Arab Summit called on Iran “to end its illegal occupation” of the islands of Abu Moussa, Greater and Lesser Tunbs. The summit, presided over by Syrian President Bashar Assad, also called on Iran to stop building settlements on the islands.

“The continued attempts by Iran to build settlements and conduct war-games in the territorial waters, air space, economic zones and coral reefs of the occupied islands are all acts that constitute a gross violation of the UAE sovereignty and territorial integrity,” said a communiqué issued at the end of the summit.

The communiqué urged Iran to end “acts of provocation” and summit to a negotiated settlement.

Iran's foreign ministry spokesman said the UAE claim over the islands was “vain and baseless” as the islands were an inseparable part of Iranian territory.

The History – In 1968, the British announced that they would formally end the protectorate status of the seven emirates of the Trucial Sheikhdoms (Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Sharjah, Ras al-Khaimah, Ajman, Fujairah and Umm al-Quwain) as well as that of Bahrain and Qatar.

Iran had territorial claim over Bahrain and at the time of the British announcement considered Bahrain one of its provinces (the 14th Province). The Iranian government wanted the British to hand over Bahrain to Iran now that they were ending its protectorate status. Iran was challenging Bahrain’s legal rights to independence.

Bahrain joined Qatar and the seven Trucial Sheikdoms, all the nine still under British protection, to form the Federation of Arab Emirates. The FAE was to become an independent state in 1971, the departure date for the British.

Meanwhile, the British put pressure on Shah of Iran to renounce Iran’s claim over Bahrain. In late 1968, the Iranian and British representatives began to hold secret meetings in Switzerland to find a compromise.

The British proposed that Iran occupy the three islands Abu Moussa, Greater and Lesser Tunbs which had long been claimed by Iran. The Federation of Arab Emirates, with Bahrain and the Trucial Sheikdoms as members, would then accept Iran’s sovereignty over the islands. The shah agreed.

The two sides also agreed to use the good offices of UN Secretary General (U Thant) to facilitate the agreements. UN would later send a “fact-finding” mission to Bahrain and its representative would “determine” that the Bahrainis preferred independence over ties with Iran. This was a face-saving move intended for the shah, who had accepted the lesser prize of the three islands.

In 1971, however, Bahrain (along with Qatar) abandoned the Federation of Arab Emirates and in August of that year declared its independence. The Trucial Sheikdoms became the United Arab Emirates. The UAE, without Bahrain, now questioned shah’s agreement with the British and did not recognize Iranian sovereignty over the islands.

Shah was checkmated. Bahrain was now independent and the UAE was not recognizing Iran’s historical claims over the islands.

Observations - Any agreement by the shah’s government to recognize Bahrain in return for the three islands could be challenged by the sitting government in Tehran. The Bahrain and UAE sides, and their legal protector at the time – the British, did not negotiate in good faith and the results of those negotiations now can be considered null and void.

The question of Bahrain and the three islands were interwoven from the beginning and should be part of a comprehensive settlement with Iran.

Mottaki Arrives in Bahrain

Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki arrived in Manama last night and was welcomed by Bahraini Foreign Minister Sheikh Khalid. Mottaki will take part in the first meeting of Iran-Bahrain cooperation commission.

Iranian-Bahraini relations faced a major crisis when Hossein Shariatmadari, the editor of Iran’s influential daily Keyhan, reiterated a long-standing popular Iranian claim over Bahrain. The government has distanced itself from Shariatmadari’s call for Bahrain’s return to Iran.

The Shah’s government had renounced Iran’s claim over Bahrain in 1971 in return for the ownership of three islands of Abu Musa and Greater and Lesser Tombs, now claimed by UAE.

Three Islands Key to GCC Relations

Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Secretary General Sheik Abdulrahman said today the Persian Gulf states will not develop their relations with Iran before reaching a settlement on the three islands of Abu Musa and Greater and Lesser Tumbs owned by Iran and claimed by UAE.

“Without settling this dispute either by international arbitration or direct negotiation with the UAE, the Gulf states will not enhance their co-operation with Iran,” said Sheik Abdulrahman (The Gulf Times, 16 December).

In 1971, the shah’s government, under pressure from the British, dropped Iran’s historic claim over Bahrain and in return the departing British forces handed over the three islands to Iran. At the time the move was seen as treason by the shah to disclaim Bahrain in lieu of three uninhibited islands. Now UAE is claiming the ownership of those three islands.

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was harshly criticized in Tehran for attending a recent GCC summit held in Doha at the end of which the GCC states passed a resolution reiterating UAE’s ownership of the three islands. Today’s announcement by Sheik Abdulrahman adds to the importance and the urgency of the issue for the region’s peace and security.

Islamic Republic is already under heavy criticism for its handling of the Caspian Sea legal status. A 1921 treaty signed by Lenin’s government in Moscow and the Persian government in Tehran had divided the Caspian equally between the two countries. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Iran has been put under pressure from Russia to accept only 13% share of the Caspian based on the length of its coastline. The Iranians have reportedly agreed to a 20% equal share for the five Caspian states.

The opposition compares the government’s Caspian agreement to capitulations at Gulistan and Turkmenchay in 1800’s when Persia renounced its rule over the present-day Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan and handed them to Tsarist Russia.

Handing over the three islands to UAE on top of an agreement to accept less than half for Caspian would fatally undermine the legitimacy of the Islamic Republic.

News from Iran

The publication of US national Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran’s nuclear program dominated the coverage in the local media. The NIE said Iran does not have a bomb and is not working on a bomb. President Ahmadinejad called NIE a victory for Iran and said its publication was a step in the right direction in mending relations with Iran. In general, the Iranian officials and the media have welcomed the NIE. Some conservative dailies, however, warned against pre-mature celebration. They warned that NIE has indeed accused Iran of working on a bomb until 2003. The supreme leader also has unusually remained silent on the NIE. On regional developments, Ahmadinejad came under attack for his participation at the summit of the leaders of Persian Gulf countries. Aftab Yazd protested against summit communiqué calling on Iran to return its three islands to UAE. The use of the words “Arabian Gulf” instead of “Persian Gulf” by the Arab leaders at the summit was also a main point of contention. On economic front, Iran and China signed a $2-billion contract to develop an oil field in Iran. The media saw the contract as a first sign of the crumbling sanctions in the aftermath of NIE publication.

NIE and Iran’s Nuclear program

· Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad called US National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) “a victory for Iran” ; Ahmadinejad said the NIE put seal of approval on civilian nature of Iran's nuclear activities ; he added the reports released by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the US intelligence community removed any ambiguity about Iranian nuclear program; Ahmadinejad said NIE conclusion on peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear program was “a step forward” in mending relations with Iran.
· Iran’s Minister of Defense Brig. Gen. Mostafa Mohammad Najjar said there were many positive points in US NIE; Gen. Najjar said however Iran was never after developing nuclear weapons.
· Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini said nuclear energy is a vital and urgent need of Iran; Hosseini added the legitimate rights of Iran to develop nuclear energy for peaceful purposes are not negotiable.
· President Ahmadinejad said a new round of sanctions against Iran over its nuclear program would have no legal basis; US is pushing for a third round of UN sanctions despite a new NIE; Ahmadinejad said he does not think any new resolutions will be on the way.
· Iran and China signed a $2 billion contract to develop an oil field regarded as an indication of crumbling sanctions against Iran in aftermath of publication of NIE.
· US President George Bush demanded Iran explain nuclear program; President Bush called on Iran to explain why it had a secretive nuclear program; he called Iran a “dangerous” country.
· Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said Iran's nuclear program is still dangerous; Olmert emphasized the NIE gives estimates of when Iran can acquire a nuclear weapon; Olmert said Iran is continuing its production of enriched uranium and ballistic missiles needed for a nuclear weapon program; Olmert added Iran could have the bomb by 2010.
· IAEA team arrived in Tehran for nuclear talks; talks were expected to focus on traces of weapon-grade enriched uranium found by IAEA inspectors at Tehran's Technical University.

US-Iran Relations

· President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said if US follow the step they have taken with their new NIE by making changes in their policies in the region, they will see immediate and positive results coming from Iran.
· President Ahmadinejad said he still wanted a debate with his US counterpart President Bush over world developments; Ahmadinejad first proposed such debate in September; the proposal is still on the table, he said.
· Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini said US seeks to dominate energy sources of the Persian Gulf region; Hossieni said providing security for Israel, escalating arms race in the region, and making regional countries suspicious of Iran were among main goals of US; he added if US changes its policies on Iran, the grounds for expansion of political and economic relations between the two countries would be prepared.
· US built an observation base on Iraq-Iran border near Iraqi town of Badrah to monitor flows of goods and people from Iran; Maj. Gen. Rick Lynch, Commander of US 3rd ID, said containing Iran “is now clearly part of US military mission”; Gen. Lynch labeled Iran’s policies in Iraq “destabilizing”; Iran has four official border crossings with Iraq.
· US Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff Adm. Mike Mullen met Israel’s defense minister and armed forces commander on Iran; Adm. Mullen’s spokesman said Iran is among the subjects discussed.

Leading Regional Storylines

· Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Iran welcomed Iraq's new proposal to develop a regional security pact among all countries bordering the Persian Gulf.
· Iran’s President Ahmadinejad described the recent Gulf Cooperation Council Summit in Qatar as very positive and constructive; he advised GCC critics to abandon pessimistic approaches and be realistic.
· Director of an influential Iranian think-tank, Mohammad Javad Larijani, defended Ahmadinejad's participation in summit of leaders of Persian Gulf countries in Doha; Member of Parliament Ahmad Tavakoli had criticized Ahmadinejad for going to Doha; Tavakoli protested against summit communiqué against Iran’s ownership of three islands claimed by UAE; Doha critics also protested against use of “Arabian Gulf” instead of “Persian Gulf” by Arab leaders during the summit; Larijani said he expected GCC to restructure itself and develop into Cooperation Council of the Persian Gulf and the Oman Sea to include Iran, Iraq and Yemen.
· A regional security conference focusing on Iran was held in Bahrain; Iran’s Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki refused to attend Bahrain conference; US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates attacked Iran’s foreign policy for its destabilizing effects in the region and called it a threat to the national interests of US; Qatar and some other Gulf countries protested US military threats against Iran.
· Iran and China signed a $2 billion contract to develop Yadavaran oil field in southwestern Iran; Iran’s Oil Minister Gholam Hossein Nozari said new contract indicates Washington's claims that international firms are not willing to invest in Iran are baseless .
· President Pervez Musharraf has said even if India does not agree to terms of Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) gas pipeline project, Pakistan will continue negotiations to import gas from Iran.

Leading Domestic Storylines

· Thousand of students at e University of Tehran today held demonstrations against Ahmadinejad government; the students chanted “Death or Liberty!” and “No to War; No to Fascism!”; the demonstrations were to mark the National Student Day (16 Azar); Ministry of Intelligence has arrested a number of “student agitators.”
· Foreign Ministry Spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini expressed regrets over the killing of French citizen Julien Van Waesberghe in Isfahan; Van Waesberghe, 24, was waiting for a bus to Yazd after visiting Isfahan; the foreign ministry spokesman said Isfahan Police has identified the killer and is vigorously trying to arrest him.

Bahrain Conference

The regional security conference sponsored by the International Institute for Strategic Studies got underway today in Bahrain. Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki decided at the last minute neither to attend nor to send a delegation to the conference.

US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates told the gathering that Iran needs to suspend its uranium enrichment program and vow to not develop nuclear weapons in the future. He also attacked Iran’s foreign policy for its destabilizing effects in the region and called it a threat to the national interests of the United States.

"Everywhere you turn, it is the policy of Iran to foment instability and chaos, no matter the strategic value or cost in the blood of innocents — Christians, Jews and Muslims alike," said Gates.

On Friday, Vice Admiral Kevin Cosgriff, Commander of US Naval Forces Central Command (NAVCENT), had said, "I wake up thinking about Iran, I go to bed thinking about Iran."

Some of the leaders of Persian Gulf states cautioned against isolating Iran in the region.

“I don't think we can try to solve our problems through trying to seal Iran off from the region. They are a very important player," said Sheikh Hamed, Prime Minister of Qatar. He added pushing a military confrontation with Iran is not in the best interests of GCC countries.